Business
IMF Seeks Fiscal Adjustments, Targeted Intervention
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has called for an aggressive monetary tightening and fiscal adjustment to restore macroeconomic stability.
It said, despite the difficult external environment and challenges on the local scene, it is confident that Nigeria is able to meet its loan obligations.
IMF, in its Post Financing Assessment (PFA) released over the weekend, whilst commending the policies embarked upon by the Federal Government and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), said “Nigeria’s capacity to repay the Fund is adequate”.
Noting that Nigeria faces a difficult external environment and wide-ranging domestic challenges, the fund called for targeted support for the vulnerable in the country, saying, “the form of social transfers is needed, given the ongoing cost-of-living crisis”.
According to the IMF, external financing (market and official) is scarce, and global food prices have surged, reflecting the repercussions of conflict and geo-economic fragmentation.
“Per-capita growth in Nigeria has stalled, poverty and food insecurity are high, exacerbating the cost-of-living crisis. Low reserves and very limited fiscal space constrain the authorities’ option space.
“Against this backdrop, the authorities’ focus on restoring macroeconomic stability and creating conditions for sustained, high and inclusive growth is appropriate. The government’s focus on revenue mobilisation and digitalization would improve public service delivery and safeguard fiscal sustainability.
“The envisaged reduction in the overall deficit in 2024 would help contain debt vulnerabilities and eliminate the need for CBN financing. Temporary and targeted support to the most vulnerable in the form of social transfers is needed, given the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.
“Fuel and electricity subsidies are costly, do not reach those that most need government support and should be phased out completely.
“Staff assesses that Nigeria’s capacity to repay the Fund is adequate under the baseline. The authorities’ policy intentions are well placed to address risks of a downside scenario where difficult trade-offs may arise between urgent humanitarian needs and debt service, including to the Fund.
“In such circumstances, aggressive monetary tightening and fiscal adjustment combined with support from development partners would be needed to restore macroeconomic stability”, it noted.
In respect to the monetary policy of the country, the IMF, in its Staff Assessment said: “the CBN has set out on a welcome path of monetary tightening. The Governor has committed to making price stability the core objective of monetary policy, and the CBN has taken actions to mop up excess liquidity.
“Continuing to raise the monetary policy rate until it is positive in real terms would be an important signal of the direction of monetary policy. The authorities are exploring options to strengthen Nigeria’s reserve position, though a careful assessment of unintended consequences is needed in some cases.
“Settling the CBN’s overdue dollar obligations will help rebuild confidence in the Central Bank and the Naira. Sharing comprehensive information on Nigeria’s reserves position would facilitate a more complete assessment of the external situation”.
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Sugar Tax ‘ll Threaten Manufacturing Sector, Says CPPE
In a statement, the Chief Executive Officer, CPPE, Muda Yusuf, said while public health concerns such as diabetes and cardiovascular diseases deserve attention, imposing an additional sugar-specific tax was economically risky and poorly suited to Nigeria’s current realities of high inflation, weak consumer purchasing power and rising production costs.
According to him, manufacturers in the non-alcoholic beverage segment are already facing heavy fiscal and cost pressures.
“The proposition of a sugar-specific tax is misplaced, economically risky, and weakly supported by empirical evidence, especially when viewed against Nigeria’s prevailing structural and macroeconomic realities.
The CPPE boss noted that retail prices of many non-alcoholic beverages have risen by about 50 per cent over the past two years, even without the introduction of new taxes, further squeezing consumers.
Yusuf further expressed reservation on the effectiveness of sugar taxes in addressing the root causes of non-communicable diseases in Nigeria.
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