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Beyond Legal Reform On Power Sector (1)

Published

3 years ago

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Following the recent constitutional amendment assented to by President Muhammadu Buhari, the power sector regulatory body- the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) now has powers to grant States license to generate, transmit and distribute electricity. Prior to the review, the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as ammended) in Articles 13 and 14 though positioned electric power in the concurrent legislative list for federal and state governments to legislate on electricity matters, however, restrained the powers. The states then were only permitted to interfere in areas not covered by the national grid system within that state. Interestingly, the recent amendment reviewed Article 14(b) and liberally expands the powers of states to generate, transmit and distribute electricity to areas covered by the national grid unlike pre-reform regimes. What then are the implications of the powers extended to the states to generate electricity even in areas covered by the national grid?
For decades and even with the privatisation of the sector in 2013, the electricity value chain, especially transmission and distribution are literally monopolistic. The reason for this is that even when the electricity value chain has been unbundled and components privatised, the value chain remains highly integrated due to the nature of the electricity product. Electricity in the form of electrons travels at the speed of light from generation to consumption points. Without integration, the disruptions due to poor coordination between components of the value chain can result in poor delivery.
In developed utilities, competitiveness has been introduced through market and regulatory reforms which facilitate consumers to select their preferred generators depending on tariff differences. Advanced metering technology makes this possible. More recently technological innovations are creating opportunities for households and electricity consumers to explore self-generation options apart from public grid systems. The available options range from conventional generators, solar and wind generators. An important incentive for self-generation is that the deployed smart metering solutions facilitate the sale of excess self-generated power back to the grid.
The liberalisation of the states to generate, transmit and distribute electricity has subtly de-monopolised the long existing monopoly of the value chain, making way for free competition in the market through states. Possibly, some states will subsequently make investments in the power sector that will give rise to more electricity generation and supply. However, the question is, how much of additional generated power can be accommodated and integrated into the current Nigerian grid system?
Arguably, there may be a dire need for states to massively invest in further strengthening electricity network infrastructure which has been one of the major causes of the unstable poor supply in many parts of the country. There are privately-owned distribution infrastructure that have been in use for over four decades, hence, the need for upgrade. Equally, some government owned power generating plants which are yet to be concessioned and the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) require significant capital outlay in order to upgrade the assets to the growing national power demand. Even if there was sufficient generated electricity, in most cases, those worn-out infrastructure may be incapable of accommodating such load. As such, we see excess generated electricity, unutilised. Modern technology has provided grid support and ways excess energy can be stored and utilised appropriately. This must be explored.
Given all these challenges and emerging opportunities, the most optimal way to leapfrog in the provision of improved reliable electricity, is for the state governments to consider how the potential investors would leverage on existing NERC regulations in third-party investments, franchising and eligible customer regulations before awarding investments in generation, transmission and distribution to new entrants. This way, legal hitches in utilising existing infrastructure which are privately owned can be avoided.
Depending on how the states intend to operate, the synergy between existing investors and new entrants would open up massive novel opportunities and would also see a rise of prosumers. This means producing consumers; if states allow individuals with capacity to generate their own power and distribute. This can be a good foundation to usher in clean renewable energy sources. In countries like the United Kingdom, innovative incentives (though limited in time) like feed in tariff, renewable obligation certificates were created to encourage generation of clean power through renewable sources by individuals, small and big companies alike. In fact, in the UK, some incentives like Contract for Difference, Smart Export Guarantee, Renewable Heat Incentises, etc. that encourage, support and incentivise the generation and distribution of clean energy through renewable sources are still operational.
Additionally, job creation and employment opportunities will also be a consequence of the implementation of the powers of the state. The underlying economic, social and financial advantages that would result from this are enormous. Thus, liberalising the states to generate, transmit and distribute electricity is a step in the right direction.
On the other hand, with all the positive impacts this recent amendment would likely bring to the sector, the future of existing GenCos, Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) and DisCos remain uncertain. With the previous monopolistic nature of the value chain, the sector battled liquidity crises, etc. Operating within an open market structure, leaves the fate of these market operators uncertain. States operating their own transmission networks may imply that the TCN which is the only body in the value chain that is 100 percent government owned and not privatised is now decentralised.
Furthermore, human capital flight may also be one of the setbacks that the current market operators may experience as states would source experienced and capable individuals to manage the state power investments. Declining collection efficiency may also be experienced especially where consumers are at liberty to switch from one electricity company to another. Consequently, the modalities for operations of the state with respect to generation, transmission and distribution of electricity must be clearly stated by NERC, the regulator. NERC may have more work to do in terms of providing innovative guidelines for customers to switch or migrate from one network to another and not just allow it to be solely an internal affair of the state.
According to the World Bank, “Nigeria has the largest number of people without access to electricity in the world”. The World Bank further states that “the power sector has not been able to keep up with demand or provide reliable supply to existing customers. Businesses in Nigeria lose about US$29 billion annually because of unreliable electricity”.
Optimistically, with the implementation of this reform by states, especially if renewable energy sources are incorporated, Nigeria may witness a record decline in the number of people without access to electricity as well as see significant improvement in electricity supply, and ultimately boost the economy. However, the success is dependent on implementing business models that would promote synergy and collaboration between the existing distribution investors and the new entrants to avoid potential rivalry that could lead to legal hitches.
Ani is a Lawyer & Renewable Energy Expert, and reachable through email: nkemani2011@yahoo.comBeyond Legal Reform on Power Sector.
By Ani Nkemjika Nnenne
Following the recent constitutional amendment assented to by President Muhammadu Buhari, the power sector regulatory body- the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) now has powers to grant States license to generate, transmit and distribute electricity. Prior to the review, the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in Articles 13 and 14 though positioned electric power in the concurrent legislative list for federal and state governments to legislate on electricity matters, however, restrained the powers. The states then were only permitted to interfere in areas not covered by the national grid system within that state. Interestingly, the recent amendment reviewed Article 14(b) and liberally expands the powers of states to generate, transmit and distribute electricity to areas covered by the national grid unlike pre-reform regimes. What then are the implications of the powers extended to the states to generate electricity even in areas covered by the national grid?
For decades and even with the privatization of the sector in 2013, the electricity value chain, especially transmission and distribution are literally monopolistic. The reason for this is that even when the electricity value chain has been unbundled and components privatized, the value chain remains highly integrated due to the nature of the electricity product. Electricity in the form of electrons travels at the speed of light from generation to consumption points. Without integration, the disruptions due to poor coordination between components of the value chain can result in poor delivery.
In developed utilities, competitiveness has been introduced through market and regulatory reforms which facilitate consumers to select their preferred generators depending on tariff differences. Advanced metering technology makes this possible. More recently technological innovations are creating opportunities for households and electricity consumers to explore self-generation options apart from public grid systems. The available options range from conventional generators, solar and wind generators. An important incentive for self-generation is that the deployed smart metering solutions facilitate the sale of excess self-generated power back to the grid.
The liberalization of the states to generate, transmit and distribute electricity has subtly de-monopolized the long existing monopoly of the value chain making way for free competition in the market through states. Possibly, some states will subsequently make investments in the power sector that will give rise to more electricity generation and supply. However, the question is, how much of additional generated power can be accommodated and integrated into the current Nigerian grid system?
Arguably, there may be a dire need for states to massively invest in further strengthening electricity network infrastructure which has been one of the major causes of the unstable poor supply in many parts of the country. There are privately-owned distribution infrastructure that have been in use for over four decades, hence, the need for upgrade. Equally, some government owned power generating plants which are yet to be concessioned and the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) require significant capital outlay in order to upgrade the assets to the growing national power demand. Even if there was sufficient generated electricity, in most cases, those worn-out infrastructures may be incapable of accommodating such load. As such we see excess generated electricity, unutilized. Modern technology has provided grid support and ways excess energy can be stored and utilized appropriately. This must be explored.
Given all these challenges and emerging opportunities, the most optimal way to leapfrog in the provision of improved reliable electricity, is for the state governments to consider how the potential investors would leverage on existing NERC regulations in third-party investments, franchising and eligible customer regulations before awarding investments in generation, transmission and distribution to new entrants. This way, legal hitches in utilizing existing infrastructure which are privately owned can be avoided.
Depending on how the states intend to operate, the synergy between existing investors and new entrants will open up massive novel opportunities and will also see a rise of prosumers. This means producing consumers; if states allow individuals with capacity to generate their own power and distribute. This can be a good foundation to usher in clean renewable energy sources. In countries like the United Kingdom, innovative incentives (though limited in time) like feed in tariff, renewable obligation certificates were created to encourage generation of clean power through renewable sources by individuals, small and big companies alike. In fact, in the UK, some incentives like Contract for Difference, Smart Export Guarantee, Renewable Heat Incentives, etc. that encourage, support and incentivize the generation and distribution of clean energy through renewable sources are still operational.
Additionally, job creation and employment opportunities will also be a consequence of the implementation of the powers of the state. The underlying economic, social and financial advantages that will result from this are enormous. Thus, liberalizing the states to generate, transmit and distribute electricity is a step in the right direction.
On the other hand, with all the positive impacts this recent amendment will likely bring to the sector, the future of existing GenCos, TCN and DisCos remain uncertain. With the previous monopolistic nature of the value chain, the sector battled liquidity crises, etc. Operating within an open market structure, leaves the fate of these market operators uncertain. States operating their own transmission networks may imply that the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) which is the only body in the value chain that is 100% government owned and not privatized is now decentralized.
Furthermore, human capital flight may also be one of the setbacks that the current market operators may experience as states will source experienced and capable individuals to manage the state power investments. Declining collection efficiency may also be experienced especially where consumers are at liberty to switch from one electricity company to another. Consequently, the modalities for operations of the state with respect to generation, transmission and distribution of electricity must be clearly stated by NERC, the regulator. NERC may have more work to do in terms of providing innovative guidelines for customers to switch or migrate from one network to another and not just allow it to be solely an internal affair of the state.
According to the World Bank, “Nigeria has the largest number of people without access to electricity in the world”. The World Bank further states that “the power sector has not been able to keep up with demand or provide reliable supply to existing customers. Businesses in Nigeria lose about US$29 billion annually because of unreliable electricity”.
Optimistically, the implementation of this reform by states, especially if renewable energy sources are incorporated, Nigeria may witness a record decline in the number of people without access to electricity as well as see significant improvement in electricity supply, and ultimately boost the economy. However, the success is dependent on implementing business models that will promote synergy and collaboration between the existing distribution investors and the new entrants to avoid potential rivalry that can lead to legal hitches.

By: Ani Nkemjika Nnenne
Ani is a Lawyer & Renewable Energy Expert, and reachable through email: nkemani2011@yahoo.com

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Opinion

Should The Internet Go Bust

Published

7 days ago

on

November 3, 2025

By

Quote:”. Whereas it sounds apocalyptic, yet experts have long warned that a total internet collapse, whether from cyberwarfare, global technical failure, or coordinated attacks on undersea cables, could paralyze the world far beyond imagination”
We now live in a world that so much relies on technology, especially on digital communication networks and data services. Virtually every aspect of our life depends on the efficient functioning of machines. In view of this reliance, imagine waking up to a world where the internet simply goes dark. For advanced countries where the functionality, monitoring and data storage of surveillance, security and nuclear installations, all rely on electronics and networks, the disruption could be catastrophic. On the other hand, for developing nations like Nigeria where government’s  response is usually slow, the implications would be socially and economically disastrous. It would imply the sudden evaporation of all the modern conveniences we have taken for granted. No online banking. No emails. No mobile transfers. No WhatsApp messages, Twitter feeds or digital government portals.
The collapse would expose a dangerous dependency, the centralization of personal data. In Nigeria’s multi-biometric systems, the Bank Verification Number (BVN), the National Identification Number (NIN), and SIM registration for mobile networks, are all cloud-based. With no internet, access to these databases would be lost. Banks could not verify customers; telecom operators could not authenticate SIMs; and government agencies would be unable to issue new IDs or validate old ones.In Nigeria, over 80% of financial transactions now occur digitally, thanks to the rapid adoption of fintech platforms such as Opay, PalmPay, Paga, and the Central Bank Nigeria’s eNaira initiative. Assets of companies worth trillions of naira are also stored digitally and transacted on the Nigerians Stock Exchange. Like other transactions, these have no certified paper backings other than electronic storages.
It means that the wealth and wellbeing of millions now lie at the mercy of machines. According to the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS), in 2024 alone, the value of electronic payments in Nigeria reached ?600 trillion. Whereas it sounds apocalyptic, yet experts have long warned that a total internet collapse, whether from cyberwarfare, global technical failure, or coordinated attacks on undersea cables, could paralyze the world far beyond imagination. A total internet blackout would instantly freeze the banking system as banks lose interconnectivity, making transfers, withdrawals, and payments impossible. Fintech companies would go offline, cutting off millions from access to their digital wallets, while Point-of-Sale (PoS) operators, who depend on network connections for every transaction, would be stranded.The economy would revert overnight to cash dependence.
But cash, already scarce due to the CBN’s currency redesign and digital push, would not circulate fast enough to meet demands. Markets would collapse into panic, and trust in banks could erode within hours. Modern governance in Nigeria has increasingly depended on digital infrastructure, using e-government portals to handle licensing, pension records, procurements, revenue collection and budget management. An internet collapse would send governance back to the analogue age. Ministries would lose coordination, digital files would be inaccessible and online recordkeeping systems would fail.For ordinary Nigerians, the consequences would be deeply personal. Salaries paid through electronic transfers would go into limbo. Traders on Jumia, Konga, and social media marketplaces would lose their livelihoods overnight. Health and other insurance policies that currently dependent on cloud records and telemedicine would be truncated.
Even more troubling, a prolonged blackout could corrupt or erase data stored in unsecured local servers. Without connectivity to global backups, entire records, financial histories, health data, and school records, could be lost. For millions around the globe, digital amnesia would mean loss of identity, wealth and social status. Without communication, rumours would fill the void, potentially triggering civil unrests, misinformation, or even national security crises that may lead to uprisings in many countries.In a world where WhatsApp has replaced the post office and Zoom serves as boardrooms, digital communication collapse would feel like the death of modern society. Businesses would halt meetings, journalists would lose sources, students would be cut off from online learning, and diaspora remittances and family ties would suffer. Even voice calls that depend on internet routing would be impossible.
 The silence would be deafening, not just socially but economically, because communication fuels productivity. Without it, markets stall.The collapse of the internet would expose how deeply our daily survival has come to depend on invisible digital threads. If the web were to go dark tomorrow, it would not just dim our screens, it would extinguish commerce, governance, and connection itself. Already, fallouts from increasing cyber-attacks on undersea cables or satellite networks show the fragility of the situation.To preempt these eventualities, developing countries must therefore,  plan to build digital resilience. Critical data should have offline backups within national borders. Banks and fintechs must maintain local intranets or satellite-based alternatives to the public web. Radios, SMS-based, and offline mesh communication networks should be installed as alternative fallback channels.
Proactive protection of key infrastructure must become a national priority, and not reactive fire-fighting. As the internet becomes the nerve centre of modern civilization, developing economies like Nigeria, which strives for inclusion and growth, should avoid being ensnared into a blind spot by rapidly digitalizing into over-dependence. And the question is not whether the internet could collapse, but whether we can survive it when it does. A society that entrusts everything to the cloud must first learn how to breathe without it.
By; Joseph Nwankwor

 

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Opinion

Transgenderism: Reshaping Modern Society 

Published

7 days ago

on

November 2, 2025

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Quote:”While some hail transgenderism as a triumph of individual freedom and self-expression, others harbour deep concerns about the implications of this phenomenon.”
Often times, people tend to be about the concept of   cross-dressing and transgenderism While cross-dressing refers to the act of wearing clothing and accessories typically associated with the opposite sex, often for entertainment, self-expression, or personal satisfaction and cross-dressers may identify with their birth sex and may not necessarily experience distress or discomfort with their gender, transgenderism, on the other hand, refers to having gender identity differ from the sex a person is naturally assigned at birth. Transgender individuals may identify as male, female, non-binary, or another gender identity that aligns with their internal sense of self. Transgenderism is often accompanied by a desire to transition, which may involve hormone therapy, surgery, or other medical interventions. However, while some cross-dressers may also identify as transgender, not all cross-dressers are transgender, and not all transgender individuals cross-dress.
 We have heard of a few Nigerian individuals who have identified as transgender or non-binary, even though they may not have publicly denounced their original gender. The case  of Okuneye Idris Olanrewaju, popularly known as Bobrisky, is  one no longer hidden. A Nigerian social media personality and crossdresser, Bobrisky  has gained a large following online. While not openly identifying as transgender, Bobrisky has been known to challenge traditional gender norms. Another known personality in this regard, is Denrele Edun. The later is a  Nigerian television host, actor, and model who has been known for his androgynous appearance and style. Denrele has also  not publicly identified as transgender but has been open about his non-conformity to traditional gender norms. Onyx Uzo, a  Nigerian non-binary artist and writer,  has been open about their gender identity.
 The transgender movement has really gained unprecedented momentum in  recent years, sparking intense debates and discussions across various spheres of society. While some hail transgenderism as a triumph of individual freedom and self-expression, others harbour deep concerns about the implications of this phenomenon. As the world grapples with the complexities of transgenderism, it is essential to engage in a nuanced and multifaceted examination of the issues at stake. To begin with, it is crucial to acknowledge that transgenderism is a deeply personal and complex issue, affecting individuals and families in profound ways. While some people may identify as transgender due to a genuine sense of discomfort with their biological sex, others may be driven by factors such as mental health issues, trauma, or social pressure.
It is essential to approach each individual experience with empathy and understanding, recognizing that there is no one-size-fits-all explanation for transgenderism. However, as we strive to be compassionate and inclusive, we must also consider the broader implications of transgenderism on society. One of the most pressing concerns is the erosion of traditional sex distinctions and the redefinition of gender. Proponents of transgenderism argue that gender is a social construct, and that individuals should be free to identify as they choose. However, this perspective neglects the biological and anthropological realities of sex and gender. The consequences of blurring the lines between male and female are far-reaching and profound. Women’s rights and spaces are being compromised by the inclusion of biological males who identify as females.
Women’s sports, bathrooms, and shelters are being redefined to accommodate transgender individuals, often at the expense of women’s safety and dignity. Furthermore, the transgender movement has been linked to a range of mental health concerns, including depression, anxiety, and suicidal ideation. Rather than encouraging individuals to embrace a transgender identity, we should be providing them with compassionate and evidence-based care that addresses the underlying issues driving their desire to transition. In addition, the push to normalize transgenderism has significant implications for children and adolescents. The increasing trend of diagnosing children with gender dysphoria and administering hormone blockers and cross-sex hormones raises serious concerns about the long-term effects on their physical and emotional health.
It is also essential to examine the role of ideology and politics in shaping the transgender movement. The promotion of transgenderism as a social justice issue has led to the suppression of dissenting voices and the marginalization of those who hold differing views. This climate of intolerance and censorship is antithetical to the principles of free speech and open inquiry. Moreover, the transgender movement has been criticized for its lack of scientific rigor and its reliance on anecdotal evidence. Many experts argue that the current diagnostic criteria for gender dysphoria are flawed and that the treatment options available are often inadequate. The lack of longitudinal studies and the dearth of data on the long-term effects of hormone therapy and surgery are particularly concerning. The implications of transgenderism on the family and society are also significant.
 The redefinition of gender and marriage has led to a reevaluation of traditional family structures and relationships. While some argue that this shift is necessary and liberating, others worry about the potential consequences for children and society as a whole. Howbeit, the transgender conundrum is a complex and multifaceted issue that requires careful consideration and nuanced analysis. While we must approach each individual’s experience with empathy and understanding, we must also examine the broader implications of transgenderism on society. By engaging in a thoughtful and informed discussion, we can work towards creating a more compassionate and inclusive society that respects the dignity and humanity of all individuals.As we move forward, it is essential that we prioritize critical thinking, intellectual honesty, and open inquiry.
We must be willing to ask difficult questions, challenge prevailing narratives, and engage in respectful dialogue with those who hold differing views. Only through this process can we hope to arrive at a deeper understanding of the complex issues surrounding transgenderism.
By: Sylvia ThankGod-Amadi
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Opinion

A Renewing Optimism For Naira

Published

2 weeks ago

on

October 27, 2025

By

Quote:”……in 2024 alone, Nigeria imported N14.14 trillion worth of goods from China, compared to China’s N3 trillion imports from Nigeria.”
Nigeria’s national currency, the Naira, is creating a new buzz as it sets on rising trends following years of astronomical slides in the recent past. Just within a few months ago, naira’s trajectory charted almost a straight course, strengthening from N1,636.71/$ on April 10, 2025, to N1,465.68/$ on October 2, 2025. But financial analysts appear divided over the future fate of the local legal tender.While analysts like the Forbes and Renaissance Capital Africa (RENCAP) deride naira’s current trends as being unsustainable, Bloomberg sees a sunnier side. However, evolving economic landscapes strongly suggest that the naira might be charting a sustainable path of resilience. For more than four decades, the naira had never experienced favourable Foreign Exchange (FX) tussles.
Suffering under skewed supply and demand tensions against foreign currencies, the value of the naira had procedurally depreciated. It got worse when, at the height of subsidized petroleum products import-dependence, subsidies got suddenly withdrawn in May 2023 as the present government took over office. Barring local production of the products, coupled with poor export earnings, demands for scarce foreign currencies surged at all FX windows as product importers competed to make overseas payments. The result was cataclysmic. The naira depreciated rapidly against the dollar, falling from N460.7/$ in May 2023 to N1,706/$ in 2024. Hardships propagated across the entire Nigerian economy in ripples of hyper-inflation as is still being felt. The initial response from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) was knee-jerk and unsustainable, as the regulator kept throwing its store of foreign reserve into FX markets to quench the ensuing inferno.
 Though the naira showed buoyancy at the expense of depleting reserves, the CBN was criticized against the hopelessness and unsustainability of such artificial floats. Thankfully for the local currency, after months of fire-fighting, the CBN, aided by other lucky developments, may have stumbled unto some formulae to weather the storms. Emerging econometrics now suggest that the economy may be in recovery, and the naira appears to be charting a more optimistic course, even as the apex bank still prods it. The lower oil production data of around one million barrels per day as at May 2023, has improved to around 1.51 million barrels per day at the moment. Surely, the fight against oil thefts is rewarding the economy with surpluses unencumbered by Nigeria’s debt-mortgaged oil futures.bSecondly, a changed petroleum products sourcing landscape, berthed by new-found local refining capacity at Dangote Refinery, if not strengthening the naira, must be tipping the balance of FX pressures in its favour.
While asserting its ability to fully satisfy local demands, the Dangote Refinery also hit a remarkable milestone when it shipped its first cargo of gasoline to the United States of America last month, drawing-in huge FX. Earlier, the refiners had shipped to Asia and West Africa, in a significant shift that has transited Nigeria from being a net-importer of petroleum product, to a net-exporter. Also, improvements in the non-oil exports are increasing the inflow of foreign currencies to Nigeria. Nigerian cocoa and other agro-products especially, got higher demands as crop diseases resulted in poor crop yields in neighboring West African countries. It should be noteworthy that CBN’s experiments with Naira-Yuan trade swaps with China may not have been of much favour. Though on-going trade swap arrangements between Nigerian and China which enable some settlement in naira and yuan, may ease dollar pressures, the huge trade imbalance between Nigeria and China may replace any gains with new yuan pressures.
 According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2024 alone, Nigeria imported N14.14 trillion worth of goods from China, compared to China’s N3 trillion imports from Nigeria.
However, the CBN could be given credits for its bold reforms at the Foreign Exchange market that created a single Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) in October 2023, which replaced the former Investors’ and Exporters’ window, and later adopting the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) in December 2024. These steps successfully narrowed the gap between official FX rates and the black market. Even as the measures may not directly detect the balance of currency demands and supplies, improved transparency and liquidity raised confidence that is boosting foreign remittances via official channels. Added to improved exports, it is evident that the extra liquidity gives spontaneous buoyancy to the naira, in ways CBN’s panicked throwing-in of dollar into FX markets could not have.
This is why, when the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, announced during the 302nd monetary policy committee meeting that, “The second quarter 2025 current account balance recorded a significant surplus of $5.28 billion compared with $2.85 billion in first quarter of 2025,” there is need for him to identify significant drivers. The CBN deserves commendation also, for incrementally growing Nigeria’s Foreign Reserve savings from $34.39 billion as at May, 2023 to $42.40 as at October 2, 2025. The strength of a nation’s reserves reflects its ability to meet international payment obligations without straining the stability of its legal tender, and also serves as part of risk assessment criteria that determines its borrowing costs. Increasing reserves is projecting greater external resilience for Nigeria, which reflects in Moody’s upgrading, this year, of Nigeria’s rating from ‘Caa1’ to ‘B3.’
With renewed investor confidence, foreign investments may be heading towards Nigeria as ripples from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX) suggest. Following recent interest rate cuts in the US, foreign investors appear to be shifting appetites towards Nigerian portfolios. Improved reserve is also helping Nigeria at the Eurobond market, where the yield rates Nigeria pays on its loans, have fallen from above 8 percent in early 2024 to just over 5 percent by mid-2025. However, even as the N1,706/$ exchange rate of last year, compared to the current N1,465.68/$, may seem cheery, it is still a far cry from the N460.7/$ of May 2023, when this administration took over. Government and the CBN need to push further to shore-up greater reserves, and to build local and international assurances that attract job-creating investments for local production. Comparatively among its pairs, South Africa’s reserve is $70.42 billion, Algeria’s, $64.574 billion and Egypt’s, $49.04 billion.
Nigeria, which is being projected for a $1 trillion economy by 2050, should be focusing on $100 billion external reserves. Apart from reserves, Dangote local refining shows that local production is pivotal to the value of local currencies. Nigeria needs to improve security and infrastructure to reassure subsisting industries, and improve ease of doing business, in order to attract industries. Though Naira’s path of recovery this time is sustainable, the factors that aid it need to be sustained.
By: Joseph Nwankwor
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