Environment
NiMET Releases 2023 Seasonal Climate Predictions
In order to avoid a repeat of the devastating flooding that affected most parts of the country last year, the Nigerian Metrological Agency (NiMet) has released the 2023 seasonal climate prediction.
The predictions is a document usually released in February to sensitise the nation on changing climate patterns ahead of the year.
Prof. Mansur Bako Matazu, the Director General and Chief Executive Officer of NiMet, said the early warning followed a marching order by President Muhammadu Buhari for improvement in providing early warning services after the nation’s experience in 2022 where almost all the states were flooded, with loss of lives and properties, and damage to infrastructure nationwide.
Meanwhile, Mr. Hadi Sirika, the Minister of Aviation, said that one of the effective ways of mitigating climate-induced disasters is the provision of Early Warning Services.
Sirika however urged Nigerians to take advantage of the early warning, stressing that early warnings must be matched by early A action so that it can translate to disaster risk reduction in Nigeria.
“Talking of performance, one of the effective ways of mitigating climate-induced disasters is the provision of Early Warning Services.
NiMet over the years has been the pacesetter in Early Warning Services for all weather and climate sensitive activities across the country.
However, the early Warnings must be matched by Early Action so that it can translate to disaster risk reduction in Nigeria. This has been amplified by the recent flood of 2022 across several states in Nigeria” he said.
Earlier, the Director General of NiMet revealed that the 2023 beginning of rainfall (onset) is predicted to be earlier than normal in most parts of the country .
According to him, the prediction shows that the earliest onset will likely occur on or around the 2nd of March 2023 in the coastal zone of the south-south states of Bayelsa, Rivers , Akwa Ibom and environs.
The NiMet boss stated that some parts of Katsina, Zamfara , Kano, Jigawa, Yobe in the North, Imo and Rivers in the south are likely to experience a delayed onset when compared to the long term averages in the areas .
He said the onset dates in parts of Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe , Kwara , Oyo, Ogun and Lagos are likely to be near normal .
According to him, normal to above normal annual rainfall amounts are expected over most parts of the country excepts in parts of Yobe
He said an early End of Season (EoS) is predicted over parts of the South (especially in Osun, Ondo, Edo, Delta, Imo, Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and eastern parts of Ogun and Lagos) and parts of Yobe, Adamawa, Niger, Nasarawa and Kogi.
“However, an extended rainfall season is predicted over parts of Gombe, Kaduna, Kwara, Enugu, Anambra, western Ogun, and Lagos. The End of Season period is expected to range from the 26th of September till 25th of December.
The length of growing season in most places in the country is likely to be near the long-term average, except for some parts of the northern states such as Katsina, Jigawa, and Kano where shorter than the long-term average length of the growing season is anticipated.
“The season is expected to range from 84 to 283 days. Abuja and surrounding States are expected to witness between 170 and 230 days.
“The annual total rainfall is predicted to be Normal to above normal in most parts of the country.
However, in parts of Yobe, Jigawa, Kano, Bauchi, Jigawa, Kaduna and FCT that are likely to observe below normal to near normal annual rainfall amounts.
“ The annual rainfall amount is expected to range from 420 mm in the far northernmost parts to 3253 mm in the coastal areas. However
“In 2023, we should also prepare for its occurrence between June and early July as dry spell lasting between 15 to 21 days is in the forecast, especially from the central parts of the country to the North”.
Matazu said the early prediction will allow for greater collaborations among relevant Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) in fighting against the effects for climate change.
“The President has given a marching order for improvement in providing early warning services and we took that for our directive and challenges also and that is why we have released the document as early as January and this will give about two to three months. “Lead time. Lead Time is the difference between the time you release a forecast and the time of occurrence of the season. So, for the southern season, we give about two months lease time and in the north, it will be around four to five months of leave time.
“So, and that is enough for all MDAs, government departments and agencies that federal, state and local government levels to key in and integrate this focus information into their planning activities in different sectors.
“The summary of the focus is that this year is going to be a little bit a normal year. Unlike 2023 but with the focus of extreme events, evidently we have time of fixed rainfall between July to September and Sunshine because of high soil moisture we are expecting flood flows around cities are also expecting riverine flood areas that live within the floodplain areas. And then also who states in the north, we are expecting a dry spell that will occur between the months of June and July for the period of two to three weeks” he said.
By: John Bibor
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FG Urges Citizens To Prepare That Flood Will Affect 266 LGIn 33 States
This was disclosed in a keynote address by the Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Engr Joseph Utsev, at the AFO public presentation at the Presidential Banquet Hall, Abuja, organised by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency, NiHSA, with the theme ‘Smart Water Resources Management: Moving from Oil to Water-Based Economy’.
Utsev acknowledged that early information saves lives, livelihoods, protects infrastructure, and reduces economic losses, saying that, as part of the Federal Government’s commitment to improving flood forecasts and preparedness, is the modernisation of the national hydrological monitoring networks.
The minister also said his ministry is strengthening collaboration with the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, NiMet, to ensure better integration of weather and water information, as it is critical for delivering reliable forecasts that support farmers, disaster managers, urban planners, and other key sectors of the economy.
He said AFO is therefore not just a scientific report, it is a call to action by all in terms of preparation ahead of the flood season, as early information saves lives, livelihoods, protects infrastructure, and reduces economic losses.
However, the minister acknowledged that forecasts alone are not sufficient if the information does not translate into action at the community level, which he said his Ministry is working with other relevant government agencies to mitigate the impacts of flooding.
Meanwhile, the 2026 AFO presentation had in attendance President Bola Tinubu, represented by the Minister of Environment, Balarabe Lawal.
Others present were the federal ministries: Water Resources and Sanitation; Livestock Development, Environment and Women Affairs.
Others include the Speaker of the House of Representatives, State Governments, Service Chiefs, development partners and the media.
He said: “The 2026 flood forecast presented today provides us with the following general highlights: High Flood Risk: 14,118 communities in 266 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in 33 States and FCT fall within the high flood risk areas. The States are: Abia, Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara and the FCT.
“Moderate Flood Risk: 15,597 Communities in 405 LGAs, 35 states except Ekiti State, will experience moderate flood risk.
“Low Flood Risk: Incidences of minimal flood is expected in 923 communities in 77 LGAs in 24 States. The States are Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Sokoto, Taraba and Zamfara.
“Flash and Urban Flooding: Flash and urban flooding are projected in major cities in the country due to high rainfall intensities, low attention to management of water facilities including drainage systems, waterways and lack of flood resilience structures. Cities such as Abakaliki, Abeokuta, Abuja, Asaba, Benin City, Birnin–Kebbi, Calabar, Ibadan, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Makurdi, Nguru, Onitsha, Oshogbo, Port Harcourt, Sokoto, Warri and Yola, among others are to experience these categories of flood incidence.
“Coastal and Riverine Flooding: Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Ogun, Rivers and Ondo are to experience coastal flooding due to rise in sea level and tidal surge and this would impact on fishing, wildlife habitation and river navigation.”
He also emphasised that, “As we transition toward a water-based economy, we must recognize that water security is national security. Effective water governance will play a critical role in ensuring food security, supporting economic diversification, and improving the overall well-being of our citizens.”
However, the Minister called on State andand Local Governments including communities to start preparation to mitigate the impacts of the predicted flood.
“I therefore call on state governments, local authorities, disaster management agencies, farmers, and community leaders to carefully study the findings and advisories contained in this document and take the necessary steps to prepare for the coming flood season.
“Furthermore, we are encouraging state governments to integrate flood risk considerations into land-use planning, urban development, and infrastructure design.
“Floodplains must be properly managed, drainage systems must be improved, and communities must be empowered to adapt to changing climate conditions.
“Preparedness remains the most effective strategy for reducing flood risks. When we plan ahead, we protect lives, safeguard infrastructure, and preserve economic gains. Let us commit to building a safer, more resilient and more water-secure nation.”
Earlier, the Director General/Chief Executive Officer, Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency, Umar Ibrahim Mohammed, NiHSA, said the 2026 AFO aligns with the Renewed Hope Agenda in terms of economic diversification, infrastructure development, climate resilience, food security and sustainable water management.
Mohammed also explained that, “The AFO has evolved into an important national planning instrument that provides early scientific prediction of flood risks in the country, evidence-based guide for decision-makers and platform for emergency coordination among stakeholders.
“In producing this year’s forecast, the Agency undertook a comprehensive and data-driven process to provide tailored information for high-risk flood zones and flash floods in urban cities and towns.
“Building on the success achieved through AFO publications, we have upgraded from reporting flood forecast to Flood Risk Intelligence Architecture and from the traditional modelling to Hybrid AI-Integrated Modelling system to improve forecast reliability, reduce false alarms and improve the lead time accuracy.
“Not these alone, the modelling for the 2026 forecast have been conducted in-house. This marks a strategic shift toward enhancing capacity building, manpower development and institutional resilience.”
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