Politics
2023 And Emerging Challenges
In preparation towards the nation’s general elections, the year 2022 is expected to witness a surge in array of political activities. Political permutation and scheming by political gladiators, parties and regional interests could upshot inflammatory statements, inter/intra party conflicts, assassination and thuggery.
Furthermore, internal conflicts within political parties, if not properly managed could lead to increased defections,new alliances and/or formation of political parties thereby overheating the polity.Inadvertently, underlining threats such as terrorism, banditry, kidnapping among others will be exacerbated while regional agitations, organised crimes, arms proliferation and activities of unknown gunmen are expected to escalate. And because political support for election in Nigeria is generally divided along geographical lines, the possibility of ethno-religious crises is imminent. The year could also witness rejuvenation of the civil society space and infiltration of these groups by opposition parties within and outside the country to advance subversive interests.
On a general note, gubernatorial elections in the South-West region, particularly in Osun and Ekiti States,scheduled for June and July, 2022 respectively, will mark the start of the 2023 elections.
In Osun State, with the incumbent governor on the ballot, it will be a close-fought battle due to the political infighting in the All Progressives Congress (APC) structure in the State.The region would also witness tense political wranglings between the camps/loyalists to Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Vice President and Ekiti State Governor over speculated Presidential aspirations. In addition, heightened secessionist agitations by coalition of Yoruba Nation groups may evolve.
Likewise, the political arena in the South-East is expected to be dominated by increased unscrupulous activities of the outlawed Indigenous Peoples of Biafra (IPOB) leading to amplified acts of civil disobedience.
Also, unrelenting politicians may continue to exploit Nnamdi Kanu’s detention to attract sympathy and political gains. The power tussle between the erstwhile Governor of Imo State, Rochas Okorocha, his son-in- law, Uche Nwosu and the current Governor, Hope Uzodinma could worsen the security situation in the state and the region in general.Although the declaration of interest by the duo of Anyim Pius Anyim and the Governor of Ebonyi State, Dave Umahi, though in different parties, will no doubt pith their supporters against one another. This and the quest by the PDP in Ebonyi State to retake power from the APC may heat up political activities in the days to come.
Similarly, the South-South is rife with speculations on the return of former president, Goodluck Jonathan which is generating varied public reactions that could also overheat the polity in the region. The political atmosphere in Cross River State is envisaged to be tensed especially with the decamping of the state governor to the ruling APC. This is moreso that the PDP may intensify political gimmicks to clinch back power.
The rift between Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike and the Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Ameachi coupled with the intra-party conflict in the APC may degenerate with implication for peace and stability of the State.
In the North Central, though Yahaya Bello has not formally declared interest to run for president, his posture and sideline campaigns, suggest that he is undoubtedly going to contest. The perceived intra-party squabbles between Bello’s loyalists and that of Tinubu could snowball into violence in the State.
The Nationalities Alliance for Self-determination Group (NINAS) may also intensify clamour for secession in the region premising on perceived marginalisation and inequitable distribution of resources. On the other hand, activities of bandits in Niger, Nasarawa and Benue States may disrupt electioneering processes and public order/ and safety.
Equally, considering that all the Governors in the North West except the Governor of Zamfara State will be finishing their tenures, it is projected that some of them may vie for National Assembly positions, which may cause major disaffection between the governors, serving Senators and party loyalists. Similarly, the issue of anointing a successor may likely generate clashes between the Governors and party executives in the States.
Lastly, though the political arena in the North East is relatively peaceful,the threat of terrorism in Borno, Yobe and part of Adamawa could affect electioneering process. Also, the APC may attempt to reclaim power in Adamawa and Bauchi States, which may heat up the political atmosphere.
That aside, it is worthy to note that as political factors shape the year’s activities, citizens remain the most viable tool for manipulation by some political actors to pursue self-centred motives. At this stage in Nigeria’s democracy, citizens must adopt and demonstrate an awakened attitude, taking into cognizance the fact that sustainable growth and development of the country lies in electing credible leaders.
By 2023, Nigeria’ democracy will have advanced to the point where citizens should not allure current manipulation by some politicians to use them to promote electoral malpractices and other acts of civil disobedience.
In the interest of peace and national stability, politicians must strictly play by the rules and have it at the back of their minds that rulership is only possible if the country is peaceful. Like wise,the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), as the electoral umpire, should be conscious of its actions as it will dictate the tone of the nation’s socio-political atmosphere before and after the elections. Security agencies should remain professional in discharging their duties and also properly analyse emerging threats and come up with measures to manage them. Therefore, a strong collaboration is recommended for the critical stakeholders.
By: Gani Abdullahi
Abdullahi, a veteran journalist, resides in Abuja.
A senator who represented Taraba Central, Mr Abubakar Yusuf, has declared that the economic policies of President Bola Tinubu are not yielding the expected results.
His comment is one of the strongest internal critiques yet from within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
The comment underscores the growing dissatisfaction within sections of the ruling party over the direction and impact of the administration’s economic reforms amid rising living costs and fiscal pressures across the country.
Mr Yusuf, who served in the Senate between 2015 and 2023 under the platform of the APC, made the remarks during an appearance on national television.
Responding to a question on whether the administration’s economic direction, often referred to as Tinubunomics, was working, Mr Yusuf answered in the contrary.
“For me, it is not working. I am a member of the APC. I would be the last person to hide the facts”, he said.
He said while the government might be operating diligently within its policy structure, the framework itself is ill-suited to Nigeria’s current realities
“Within the policy framework, yes, they are doing their best, but it is not the framework that is suitable for Nigeria at the point in time that President Asiwaju came into power,” he said.
Mr Yusuf criticised the immediate removal of fuel subsidy on the day the president was sworn in, arguing that the decision lacked sufficient consultation and planning.
“I am one of those who say President Asiwaju ought to have waited. Not on the day he was sworn in to say subsidy is gone. On what basis?”, he asked.
He urged broader engagement before major fiscal decisions are taken.
“Sit down with your cabinet, sit down with your ministers, sit down with your advisers,” he said, dismissing the argument that subsidy removal was justified solely on grounds of corruption.
The former lawmaker identified “structural flaws” in the country’s budgeting system, particularly the envelope budgeting model.
“One of the basic problems is that before you budget, you should have a plan. The envelope system we have been operating has been you budget before you plan. That has been a major issue”, he said.
He argued that allocating spending ceilings without aligning them to concrete development strategies inevitably weakens implementation and delivery.
“If you give me an envelope which is contrary to my plan, whether it is plus or minus, there is no way I am going to implement my plan. It is bound to fail,” he said.
Mr Yusuf called for the scrapping of the envelope budgeting system, noting that he had consistently opposed it even during his years in the National Assembly.
“It is not good for us. It is not going to work well for us,” he said.
He further blamed poor capital releases and persistent deficit financing for undermining budget performance over the years.
“We could not meet 60 percent of our capital budget in all these years. No releases. If you make a budget and the release is very poor, there is no way the budget will be executed”, he stated.
According to him, weak fund disbursement mechanisms and reliance on deficit financing have entrenched a cycle of underperformance.
“Our budget ought to have been a surplus budget, but all our budgets have always been deficit financing budgets,” Mr Yusuf added.
The Nigerian House of Representatives has resolved to reconvene for an emergency session tomorrow February 17, 2026, to deliberate on issues arising from the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) release of the timetable for the 2027 general elections.
The decision was disclosed in a statement issued by the House Spokesman, Rep. Akin Rotimi, who described the electoral body’s announcement as one of “constitutional and national significance.”
INEC had fixed February 20, 2027, for the Presidential and National Assembly elections.
According to the statement, members of the Green Chamber were notified of the emergency sitting through an internal memorandum from the Speaker’s office.
The session is expected to focus on legislative matters connected to the newly released timetable, reflecting the House’s resolve to act promptly on issues affecting the nation’s democratic process.
Rep. Rotimi noted that all related businesses would be treated with urgency and urged lawmakers to prioritise attendance in view of the importance of the deliberations.
INEC had on Friday formally unveiled the comprehensive schedule for the 2027 polls, including timelines for party primaries slated for July to September 2026, as well as the commencement of Continuous Voter Registration in April 2026.
The development comes amid ongoing consultations and proposed amendments to the Electoral Act ahead of the 2027 general elections.
As the controversy over the transmission of election results continues across the country, the Defence For Human Rights And Democracy (DHRD), a pro democracy organisation in the country, has criticised the National Assembly for not giving express approval to real time transmission of elections results.
To this end, the group is calling on all civil society organisations in the country to mobilise and push for a better Electoral Reform in the country.
This was contained in a press statement titled, “Defence For Human Rights and Democracy Demands Real Time Election Transmission of Result”, a copy of which was made available to newsmen in Port Harcourt.
The group described the refusal of compulsory real time transmission of result results by the Senate as undemocratic, adding that the situation will give room for election manipulation, rigging and voters apathy.
It said that the provision of mandatory real time transmission of election results would have significant improvement on the nation’s democracy.
According to the statement, “Since the return of democracy in 1999 to date, it is 27 years, so our Democracy has metamorphosed from being nascent and as such significant improvement should have been recorded.
“Defence For Human Rights And Democracy (DHRD), is really disappointed at the National Assembly, especially the upper chamber (Senate) for not approving ‘Real Time Electronic Transmission of Election Result’.
“This undemocratic act of theirs, if not tamed, will give room for election manipulation and rigging’”.
Signed by Comrade Clifford Christopher Solomon on behalf of the organisation, the statement further said, “The Defence For Human Rights and Democracy unequivocally supports real time transmission of election result”, stressing that his group will resist any act by the National Assembly to undermine the nation’s democracy.
“DHRD,unequivocally supports ‘True Democracy’, which is Government of the people, by the people and for the people.
“Therefore, anything that will crash the hope of Nigerians to Freely, Fairly and Transparently elect candidates of their choice in any given election should and will be vehemently resisted because good governance begins with leaders elected through credible process. By so doing, leaders have entered a social contract with the citizens to equitably manage their affairs and abundant resources”, the statement added.
It urged the National Assembly to revisit the issue in order to avoid civil unrest.
According to the DHRD, “To avoid civil unrest,voters apathy, election rigging and manipulation, rather to promote citizens participation, advancing our Democracy and entrenching free, fair, credible and acceptable electoral outcome, the National Assembly should amend the electoral act in a manner that will deepen our democracy and boost citizens confidence.
“On this note, The Defence For Human Rights And Democracy (DHRD), is calling on all other civil society organisations (CSOs) to mobilise, organise and push for a better electoral act amendment by the National Assembly”.
By: John Bibor
