Editorial
Towards Realistic Oil Benchmark For 2015 Budget
When on December 16, last year, the
Presidency forwarded its 2015
Budget estimates to the two chambers of the National Assembly, it recommended $65 per barrel as oil benchmark. That was the third time the budget estimates would be reviewed downwards on account of falling price of the commodity.
The first Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) had a budget benchmark of $78 a barrel and was submitted to the National Assembly on September 30, 2014. Shortly thereafter, oil prices fell further, leading to a second review of the oil benchmark price in the MTEF to $73 per barrel which was re-submitted to the National Assembly on November 18, 2014.
However, following that, the decision of OPEC at its meeting in Vienna on November 27, 2014 not to cut production to support the price led to further fall in the oil price to below $70 per barrel. That resulted in another downward revision of the benchmark to $65 per barrel and a revised MTEF which was again submitted to the lawmakers on December 2, 2014.
Like the fluctuations that characterized the benchmark, the initial budget proposal also fell from N4.82 trillion to N4.66 trillion. In presenting the proposals, on behalf of President Goodluck Jonathan, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Dr. Ngosi Okonjo-Iweala expressed the optimism that oil prices would soon stabilize and range between US $65 and US $70 a barrel in 2015.
“We would like to confirm that having submitted these budget estimates, we are not proposing further revision of the oil benchmark price. Though prices continue to be extremely volatile at present and to trend further downwards, there are indications based on price intelligence we have at this time that prices may range between US $65 – US $70 a barrel in 2015,” the minister said.
Strangely however, oil prices slummed to all- time low of below $50 per barrel early 2015, thus making non-sense of the minister’s optimism. And this means that the $65 per barrel benchmark has also become unrealistic as a template for working on the 2015 budget.
Also, the budget was predicated on an exchange rate of N165 to the Dollar, a speculation that also falls in the face as the Dollar presently exchanges for more than N192. All these make the estimates of the 2015 budget even more unrealistic.
What is required, therefore, is for the Presidency to take another look at the estimates, review them downwards, eliminate possible wastes and come up with more realistic benchmark for oil based on prevailing circumstances. No budget should be based on hope as was the last review.
More importantly, federal and state governments must urgently consider diversification as a priority and build the necessary framework for the growth and development of the non-oil sector. As it is, a continued dependence on oil and gas would be injurious to both the economy and Nigerians.
We expect that this will be done before the National Assembly resumes plenary to prevent the familiar late passage of our annual budgets.
The 2015 budget must take into cognizance the urgent need to develop necessary infrastructure for the production of refined products from crude oil and avoid further wastes in the importation of finished products from those who determine the price of our crude.
Budget planners need to consider more resources towards the production of by-products from crude oil for both local consumption and the West Africa Markets . A country of more than 170 million people is indeed a viable market for such by-products from crude, and should not be ignored.
The country needs to expand its petro-chemical investment and give extra attention to agricultural and tourism development as necessary alternatives to oil. These are the only ways of checking the pinch from the ever sliding price of Nigerian crude oil in the global market.
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Editorial
WPFD: Nigeria’s Defining Test
Nigeria stands at a critical juncture as the world marked World Press Freedom Day (WPFD) on May 3. This annual observance is a reminder that a free press is central to democratic life, good governance, and public accountability. For Nigeria, it is also a moment for sober reflection on how far the country has come and how far it still has to go in safeguarding the independence of its media.
World Press Freedom Day exists to highlight the fundamental importance of freedom of expression and to honour journalists who risk their lives in pursuit of truth. It underscores the idea that without a free press, societies cannot function transparently, nor can citizens make informed decisions. In countries like Nigeria, where democracy continues to evolve, the observance carries particular urgency.
This year’s theme, “Shaping a Future at Peace: Promoting Press Freedom for Human Rights, Development and Security”, places journalism at the heart of global stability. It emphasises that a peaceful society cannot be built on silence, fear, or manipulated information. Rather, it depends on the free flow of accurate, timely, and independent reporting.
At its core, the theme highlights the role of journalism in fostering accountability, dialogue, and trust. These are not abstract ideals. In Nigeria, where public confidence in institutions is often fragile, the media remains one of the few platforms through which citizens can question authority and demand transparency. When press freedom declines, so too does public trust.
Journalism serves as a foundation for peace, security, and economic recovery. Countries with robust media systems tend to attract greater investment, maintain stronger institutions, and resolve conflicts more effectively. Nigeria’s economic challenges, ranging from inflation to unemployment, require open scrutiny and informed debate, both of which depend on a free press.
However, the issue of information integrity has become increasingly complex in the digital age. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and online platforms have amplified the spread of misinformation and disinformation. In Nigeria, where internet penetration has grown rapidly, false narratives can travel faster than verified facts. This makes the role of credible journalism more vital than ever.
The challenge is not only technological but also ethical. AI-driven manipulation of information threatens to distort public discourse, influence elections, and deepen social divisions. In such an environment, professional journalism must act as a stabilising force, ensuring that truth prevails over sensationalism and propaganda.
Equally troubling is the safety of journalists. Across Nigeria, reporters face growing levels of online harassment, judicial intimidation, and physical threats. Self-censorship is becoming more common, as media practitioners weigh the risks of reporting sensitive issues. This trend undermines the very essence of journalism.
A particularly alarming incident involved a serving minister in the present administration, who openly threatened to shoot a journalist during a televised exchange. Such conduct, broadcast to the public, sends a dangerous signal that hostility towards the press is acceptable. It erodes the norms of democratic engagement and places journalists in harm’s way.
This year’s theme aligns closely with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)16, which promotes peace, justice, and strong institutions. Freedom of expression is a cornerstone of this goal. Without it, institutions weaken, corruption thrives, and justice becomes elusive. Nigeria’s commitment to SDG 16 must therefore include genuine protection for the media.
Historically, the Nigerian press has been a formidable force. From resisting colonial rule to challenging military dictatorships, our journalists have played a central role in shaping the nation’s political landscape. Today, however, that legacy appears to be under strain, as the media operates under what can best be described as a veneer of freedom.
Beneath this facade lies a troubling reality. Journalists are routinely harassed, detained, and prosecuted for performing their constitutional duties. Reports from media watchdogs indicate that dozens of Nigerian journalists face legal threats or arrest each year, often for exposing corruption or criticising those in power.
The Cybercrimes (Prohibition, Prevention, etc.) Act of 2015 has become a focal point of concern. Originally intended to combat cyber threats, it has increasingly been used to silence dissent. Sections 24 and 27(1)(b), in particular, have been invoked to target journalists, bloggers, and social commentators.
Although amendments introduced in February 2024 were meant to safeguard journalists, concerns persist. The law continues to be wielded in ways that stifle investigative reporting and restrict freedom of expression. Legal reforms must go beyond cosmetic changes to address the root causes of misuse.
To safeguard the future of journalism in Nigeria, decisive action is required. The Cybercrimes Act must be revisited to ensure it cannot be weaponised against the press. Law enforcement agencies must operate free from political influence, upholding the rule of law and protecting journalists’ rights. Civil society and international partners must also strengthen independent media through funding, training, and platforms for wider reach.
In this rapidly evolving world shaped by artificial intelligence and digital innovation, Nigeria faces a clear choice. It can either allow press freedom to erode under pressure, or it can champion a truly independent media landscape. The path it chooses will determine not only the future of journalism, but also the strength of its democracy and the peace it seeks to build.
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