Business
Political Risk Threatens FG’s ERGP -Expert
An economist, Prof. Uche Uwaleke, yesterday identified political risk as a major threat to the successful implementation of government Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP).
Uwaleke, the Head of Banking and Finance, Nasarawa State University, made this known in an interview with newsmen in Abuja.
“Indeed, numerous other vulnerabilities remain but the biggest threat to the ERGP, in my view, is the political risk that received no mention under the section.
“Nigeria’s experience over the years has shown that implementation of development plans suffer neglect whenever there is a change in government.
“The political will argument holds water only in the context of stability in government when the conceiver (the President) is in office throughout the Plan period.
“This condition is necessary for the success of the National plan,’’ he said.
According to Uwaleke, a review of key economic variables over the years indicated that the penultimate and ultimate election years affect economic performance.
The economist said that government spending usually increased in an election year, adding that this usually fuels inflation rather than encourages growth.
He said that in 2011 and 2015, Nigeria’s inflation rate increased due to high expenditure associated with the elections.
The economist said that the forthcoming 2019 election posed a threat to the ERGP’s goal of subduing inflation to single digit level by 2020.
He said that the success of the ERGP would depend not only on its implementation but also on the commitment of the succeeding administration to see it through to the terminal year.
Uwaleke, however, suggested that the country needed an enabling law to back up the ERGP.
He said, “The idea of setting up a Delivery Unit in the Presidency to assist the Ministry of Budget and National Planning in overseeing the ERGP implementation is good but not sufficient.
“If the Delivery Unit is not a creation of the Law, it lacks the capacity to discharge its duties.
“To this end, the Federal Government as a matter of urgency, should forward a Bill to be known as the ‘’Economic Recovery and Growth Bill’’ to the National Assembly.
“The Bill should take care of all issues specific to the ERGP distinct from the current Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2007 which focuses on annual budgets and the three year Medium Term Expenditure Framework.
“ The government has barely one more year to prove that the ERGP will not go the way of its forebears.
“ One of the key deliverables of the Plan is to reduce petroleum product imports by 60 per cent in 2018.
“Therefore, putting in place an enabling law and passing the Petroleum Industry Bill will safeguard the country against the major threat to the ERGP.
The Tide gathered that the Federal Government recently unveiled the ERGP, which contained the road map for Nigeria’s economic development.
The four-year plan (2017-2020) envisages that by 2020, ‘’Nigeria would have made significant progress towards achieving structural economic change with a more diversified and inclusive economy’’.
According to the plan, real GDP would grow by 4.6 per cent on average over the plan period while inflation rate would move to single digit by 2020.
The plan outlines initiatives such as boosting oil production to 2.5 million barrels per day by 2020, privatizing select public enterprises/assets and revamping local refineries to reduce petroleum product imports by 60 per cent by 2018.
Following the implementation of the plan, unemployment would reduce from 13.9 per cent as of Q3 2016 to 11.23 per cent by 2020.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) yesterday said 33 banks have met new minimum capital requirements under its recapitalisation programme, raising a combined N4.65 trillion to strengthen the financial system.
The apex bank disclosed this in a statement marking the end of the exercise, which commenced in March 2024 and drew participation from domestic and foreign investors.
The statement was jointly signed by the Director of Banking Supervision, Olubukola Akinwunmi, and the Acting Director of Corporate Communications, Hakama Sidi-Ali.
The statement said “Over the 24-month period, Nigerian banks raised a total of N4.65tn in new capital, strengthening the resilience of the financial system and enhancing its capacity to support the economy.”
The regulator said local investors accounted for 72.55 per cent of the funds, while international investors contributed 27.45 per cent, reflecting continued confidence in the sector.
Commenting on the outcome, the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said in the statement, “The recapitalisation programme has strengthened the capital base of Nigerian banks, reinforcing the resilience of the financial system and ensuring it is well-positioned to support economic growth and withstand domestic and external shocks.”
It added that while 33 banks have complied with the new thresholds, a few others are still undergoing regulatory and legal processes.
The statement noted, “The CBN confirms that 33 banks have met the revised minimum capital requirements established under the programme.
“A limited number of institutions remain subject to ongoing regulatory and judicial processes, which are being addressed through established supervisory and legal frameworks.
“All banks remain fully operational, ensuring continued access to banking services for customers.”
The apex bank stressed that the exercise was executed without disrupting banking operations, ensuring uninterrupted access to services nationwide.
It further stated that key prudential indicators have improved, particularly capital adequacy ratios, which remain above global Basel benchmarks.
The minimum ratios were set at 10 per cent for regional and national banks and 15 per cent for banks with international licences.
The bank also said the recapitalisation coincided with a gradual exit from regulatory forbearance, a move it said improved asset quality, strengthened balance sheet transparency, and enhanced overall stability.
To preserve these gains, the CBN said it has reinforced its risk-based supervision framework, mandating periodic stress tests and adequate capital buffers for banks.
It added that supervisory and prudential guidelines would be reviewed regularly to strengthen governance, risk management, and resilience across the sector.
“The successful completion of the programme establishes a stronger and more resilient banking system, better positioned to support lending, mobilise savings, and withstand domestic and global shocks,” the statement said.
The Tide learnt that foreign capital inflows into Nigeria’s banking sector rose by 93.25 per cent year-on-year to $13.53bn in 2025, up from $7.00bn recorded in 2024, amid the ongoing recapitalisation drive by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics capital importation report showed that the banking sector remained the dominant destination for foreign capital, accounting for $13.53bn of the total $23.22bn recorded in 2025, representing 58.26 per cent of total inflows, up from 56.81 per cent in 2024.
The surge reflects heightened investor interest in Nigerian banks as they raised fresh capital to meet new regulatory thresholds introduced by the apex bank, with industry-wide recapitalisation activities driving large-scale inflows across all quarters of the year.
However, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) recently raised concerns over weak credit flows to small businesses despite recent banking sector reforms.
The CPPE, led by a renowned economist, Dr Muda Yusuf, acknowledged that the ongoing bank recapitalisation exercise by the CBN has strengthened the financial system, but warned that the benefits have yet to translate into meaningful support for the real economy.
The facility will be disbursed through participating Microfinance Institutions (MFIs), which will in turn extend the loans to their customers, particularly SMEs, as they directly interface with businesses at the grassroots level.
The Executive Director of COMCIN, Mr. Micheal Ogbaa who represented the Chairman, Dr. Iredele Oyedele (FCA, FCCA), said the initiative is designed to strengthen micro-lending institutions and expand access to finance for grassroots entrepreneurs, particularly women and youths in the informal sector.
Ogbaa explained that COMCIN does not lend directly to individuals but works through its network of microfinance and cooperative institutions, which in turn provide loans to end users.
“We came together to advocate for the microfinance ecosystem. Commercial banks often exclude people at the grassroots, but our members are positioned to reach them. This facility will empower them to do more,” he said.
He noted that the loan scheme offers low interest rates and flexible repayment plans, making it more accessible to small business owners.
According to him, about 90 percent of beneficiaries are expected to be women, who play a key role in sustaining families and driving economic activities at the local level.
“Our focus is on traders, service providers, and players in the informal sector. These are the real movers of the economy. By supporting them, we are strengthening families and contributing to national development,” he added.
Ogbaa disclosed that eligible SMEs with proven integrity and business track records could access up to N5 million each through participating micro-lending institutions. The rollout has commenced in Lagos and will extend to Abuja, Enugu, and other regions, including the South-West, South-East, and North-East.
He said 12 micro-lending institutions have already benefited from the scheme, while 85 applications are currently being processed under the pilot phase.
“Our target is to reach at least 100,000 SMEs nationwide. We are building a platform that connects funding partners with credible micro-lending institutions, creating a reliable channel for financial inclusion,” Ogbaa said.
He added that COMCIN is also working to attract larger funding pools from development finance institutions and private investors, noting that successful implementation of the pilot phase would boost confidence and unlock more capital for SMEs.
“We have seen encouraging testimonies from early beneficiaries. As we demonstrate transparency and efficiency, more institutions will be willing to channel funds through us,” he said.
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