Business
Russia Grain Export Forecasts Cut As Drought Rages
A key lobby group on Monday became the latest body to downgrade Russia‘s 2010 crop prospects as the worst drought in 130 years threatened harvests in the major wheat exporter, sending key wheat prices to 22-month highs, Reuters reported on Monday.
Monday‘s jump in the United States’ wheat prices Wc1 followed a 42 per cent leap in wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade, the biggest monthly advance since 1959, as damage from drought and flooding threatened crops from the Black Sea grain breadbasket.
Benchmark November milling wheat BL2X0 on Euronext surged to a fresh contract high in opening trade.
While markets have focused intently on Russia, concerns have also started to creep on in the fate of crops in world number 4 exporter Australia, with wheat in a key state under threat from dry conditions.
The Russian Grain Union cut its 2010 grain crop forecast to between 72 million and 78 million tonnes from 81.5 million-85 million tonnes previously as a severe drought continued to advance in key producing regions.
President of the lobby group, Arkady Zlochevsky, also told reporters that the union expected Russia to export between 11 million and 19.5 million tonnes of grain, compared with a previous estimate of some 20 million tonnes in the current crop year.
“What we really want to get a grasp on is how much production has been lost, particularly in that Russian and FSU (former Soviet Union) region to figure out what will be the impact on trade and the current rally that we have seen,” Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said.
Russia has ploughed capital into its grains infrastructure as part of a longer term strategy to dominate international wheat markets and a recent Egyptian tender has confirmed that Russian milling wheat remains competitive on regional markets.
But local Russian traders were discussing the possibility of export restrictions, reasearch group, SovEcon, which last week said drought could nearly halve grain exports to 12 million tonnes in the 2010/11 crop year, said.
Russian officials are very careful giving crop forecasts but last week the economy ministry admitted this year‘s grain crop might be less than 80 million tonnes, five million tonnes below the latest official forecast.
Russia , which harvested 97 million tonnes of grain in 2009 after 108 million tonnes in 2008, exported nearly 22 million tonnes of grain, including flour in grain equivalent last year, down from 23.5 million tonnes in the previous season.
Meanwhile wheat crops in Western Australia, the country‘s top exporting state were also under threat from dry weather but favourable conditions elsewhere could make up for any crop loss, analysts said.
Any indication that the crop in Australia , the world‘s fourth largest wheat exporting nation, is endangered could put further pressure on world market prices.
Last week, SovEcon said the drought might cut the Russian grain production even further — to less than 70 million tonnes.
Fear of Russian and other Black Sea defaults on key deals to major destinations, including the number one wheat importer Egypt due to the drought has dominated talk in markets as other origins such as the United States look to step into the breech.
Russian state grain trader, United Grain Company, on Monday denied that it had defaulted on wheat shipments to Egypt.
Business
Private sector gets N2.2tr credit in 30 days — CBN
Credit to Nigeria’s private sector rose to N83.26 trillion in June 2026 from N81.04 trillion in May, signifying a positive balance of N2.22 trillion month-on-month.
Year-on-year, the figure represents a nine per cent increase compared with the N76.13 trillion recorded in June 2025. The latest figures come as the CBN continues to balance efforts to control inflation with the need to support economic growth and expand credit to businesses.
The CBN data shows that credit to Nigeria’s private sector increased by approximately 2.74 per cent month-on-month between May and June 2026. Also, the CBN data noted that credit to the government fell slightly to N40.03 trillion from N40.38 trillion. Other assets, net, dropped to N10.76 trillion from N12.63 trillion.
The credit surge signifies sustained growth in lending to businesses and other private-sector borrowers during the month. The rise in private sector credit was recorded alongside an increase in net domestic credit, despite declines in credit to government and other assets.
Further analysis of the report says that compared with June 2025, private sector credit rose by about N7.13 trillion yea-on-year but net domestic credit increased by approximately N1.87 trillion during the month.
The CBN’s relatively tight monetary policy stance notwithstanding, more banks still loaded funds to the private sector within the period. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) held its 306th meeting on July 20 and 21.
The Committee reviewed recent developments in the global and domestic economies, assessed emerging risks to the outlook and considered their implications for monetary policy and retained all rates.
The Committee decided to retain the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5 per cent; the Standing Facilities Corridor around the MPR at +50/-450 basis points and retain the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) for Deposit Money Banks at 45.00 per cent, Merchant Banks at 16.00 per cent, and non-TSA public sector deposits at 75.00 per cent.
The MPC decision means that credit extension in the private sector will likely continue to rise because of rising confidence in the sector and calls by stakeholders for banks to invest in the private scetor instead of government securities.
Business
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