Opinion
Buhari Fails Again In Sudan
When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, unleashing the greatest refugee crisis since the end of World War II, about 5000 Nigerian students were taken unawares with nowhere to run to; and no help in sight from the Nigerian Embassy in Ukraine, or the Buhari government at home. What ensued was a fiasco that saw many Nigerians trekking for many days to get to the Hungarian border. These Nigerian students studying in Ukraine found themselves in the middle of a war that had nothing to do with them, rather, their only crime was being in the wrong place at the wrong time; especially, when viewed through a Russian lens.
In spite of the outcry from parents and well-meaning Nigerians, evacuation began two weeks later, by that time a reasonable number of the Nigerian students have managed to cross into neighbouring countries on foot. They were failed by their government. In fact, it was a miracle that we did not record any death, but a government should only hope for a miracle as icing on the cake, only after it has done everything within its power with the intelligence at its disposal. But our government dropped the ball; and even though the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr. Geoffrey Onyeama, praised the Nigerian Ambassador to Ukraine, Shina Alege on his official Twitter handle, calling him indefatigable, the truth remains, that they had enough window to have initiated an evacuation before the first Russian bomb dropped in Ukraine.
It is barely one year since the Ukrainian invasion, and less than 30 days to the end of President Buhari’s administration, and what do we see in Sudan? A Nigerian government with a fresh experience, but lacks the ability to transform that experience into functional knowledge capable of solving the same problem a year later. From what we can observe, there is only head scratching, and scrambling from pillar to post, while some Nigerian students caught up in the crossfire are contemplating heading to Ethiopia. The only difference here is the Nigerian Ambassador to Sudan, but all the other major players are the same. Mr. Geofrey Onyema is still the Minister for Foreign Affairs, while Hon. Abike Dabiri still occupies her position as Chairman of the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NIDCOM).
What is currently playing out in Sudan, where the number of Nigerian students is estimated to be above 10,000 is a déjà vu. It appears as if we have not learned anything from our Ukrainian experience of a year ago. Should Nigerians at home believe that the signs of imminent hot conflict were not there? Or, is it that our military attachés at the embassy were asleep at their duty post? If they indeed gathered quality intelligence, was it disseminated promptly to all those with the power to act on it? If intelligence was indeed shared promptly to all those in position to act, including the Minister for Foreign Affairs, the Ambassador to Sudan, and the Chairman, NIDCOM, why do we now hear of setting up of a panel after about 400 persons have already been killed and 3500 injured in the conflict?
As the situation continues to deteriorate, other countries have been given a window to evacuate their people, but in our own case, a panel is being set up instead of getting the relevant agencies to work in synergy to bring our children back home. Our capacity as a country to fail at critical times of need in recent times is indeed unprecedented; because when I compare the Ukrainian debacle of a year ago and the ongoing fiasco in Sudan, it is very easy to note that Nigerian students are at the centre.
However, these students are largely from the working-class families of the country whose parents are nowhere near the corridors of power, most of them are civil servants whose only goal is to ensure their wards graduate before their retirement without recurrent ASUU strikes. This is an issue for another day.
Nigerian students suffered in Ukraine, and now thousands more of their counterparts are stranded in Khartoum and other parts of Sudan just because they are not the children of the Nigerian elites. Of course, ostentatious Nigerian elites cannot afford their children to attend universities where the tuition fee is only $1000 for foreign students. Nigerian elites whose children are schooling abroad are in UK, US, and Canada, but the most painful part is that some of these students are even on government scholarships that were denied other students with better academic standing. This is Nigeria, a country where anything is possible, especially the perpetuation of evil by those in power.
Unlike the Ukrainian situation, most parents whose children are schooling in Sudan have the Muslim month of Ramadan to thank due to the month-long vacation during this period. According to some estimations, as many as 6000 Nigerian students were already home for the Muslim Holiday before the fight broke out on April 8. Sadly, after two weeks, other students are yet to know their fate. There is no telling the level of trauma these students are currently passing through while our government tries to get its acts together.
One major issue of concern is the alarm raised by the UN in the case of violence against women and girls, regarding rape in particular. No parent wants to contemplate the idea of their daughter being turned into a sex slave in the theater of war. More so, in a country like Sudan which is a major centre of modern slavery. The trauma is markedly increased for parents with people’s children in that country at a time like this. But truth be told, these are people who have been let down by their country. Most of these people, as I stated earlier, have found themselves in this precarious position, not by their choice, but by the deliberate actions of Nigerian government as it concerns the funding of tertiary education in the country.
From this same government which left students at home for more than eight months, dillydallied while our students in Ukraine trekked for days to the Hungarian border, should we expect anything after two weeks of the unfolding civil war in Sudan? Yes. This is President Buhari’s last stand, the last major humanitarian crisis he would ever manage in his life; and therefore a rare opportunity to leave the Office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in spite of his innumerable failures. Consequently, he should rise to the occasion and bring whatever he has learned diplomatically, during his many travels to salvage the situation.
The statement by National Emergency Management Agency, that the situation in Sudan is complex amounts to nothing because every rational person understands that every theater of war is multifaceted and complex. Therefore, it is no excuse. The bottom line is that the people in charge of the responsible agencies must justify their pay. They have to justify the huge amounts spent on international conflict management.
As Nigerians, we shall hold him completely accountable if any thing happens to our children in Sudan, especially for any loss of life. We are tired of lots of talks and political speech without any substantive action to back it up. President Buhari should use all his diplomatic channels to extract a safe window from the warring parties. We know he was already tired from the outset of his government, in a few days he will have more than enough time to rest; but for now, he should not sleep until the last student has been airlifted from Sudan.
After the new government has been sworn in on May 29, there should be a post-mortem on the Sudan fiasco just a year after Ukraine’s. Nigerians reserve the right to know why our embassy in Khartoum failed to warn the federal government of the imminence of the conflict, especially given the fact that all the students could have been moved out of the country during the month of Ramadan. We need to know the role played in this failure by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and NIDCOM. People must be held accountable for putting our children in harm’s way either by their actions, or inaction. Last year it was Ukraine, today Sudan, tomorrow, who knows? The National Assembly must, on our behalf be interested to find the cause of this recurrent national dysfunction.
By: Raphael Pepple
From all indications, Nigeria possesses enough human and material resources to become a true economic powerhouse in Africa. According to the National Population Commission (NPC, 2023), the country’s population has grown steadily within the last decade, presently standing at about 220 million people—mostly young, vibrant, and innovative. Nigeria also remains the sixth-largest oil producer in the world, with enormous reserves of gas, fertile agricultural land, and human capital.
Yet, despite this enormous potential, the country continues to grapple with underdevelopment, poverty, unemployment, and insecurity. Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, 2023) show that about 129 million Nigerians currently live below the poverty line. Most families can no longer afford basic necessities, even as the government continues to project a rosy economic picture.
The Subsidy Question
The removal of fuel subsidy in 2023 by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been one of the most controversial policy decisions in Nigeria’s recent history. According to the president, subsidy removal was designed to reduce fiscal burden, unify the foreign exchange rate, attract investment, curb inflation, and discourage excessive government borrowing.
While these objectives are theoretically sound, the reality for ordinary Nigerians has been severe hardship. Fuel prices more than tripled, transportation costs surged, and food inflation—already high—rose above 30% (NBS, 2023). The World Bank (2023) estimates that an additional 7.1 million Nigerians were pushed into poverty after subsidy removal.
A Critical Economic View
As an economist, I argue that the problem was not subsidy removal itself—which was inevitable—but the timing, sequencing, and structural gaps in Nigeria’s implementation.
- Structural Miscalculation
Nigeria’s four state-owned refineries remain nonfunctional. By removing subsidies without local refining capacity, the government exposed the economy to import-price pass-through effects—where global oil price shocks translate directly into domestic inflation. This was not just a timing issue but a fundamental policy miscalculation.
- Neglect of Social Safety Nets
Countries like Indonesia (2005) and Ghana (2005) removed subsidies successfully only after introducing cash transfers, transport vouchers, and food subsidies for the poor (World Bank, 2005). Nigeria, however, implemented removal abruptly, shifting the fiscal burden directly onto households without protection.
- Failure to Secure Food and Energy Alternatives
Fuel subsidy removal amplified existing weaknesses in agriculture and energy. Instead of sequencing reforms, government left Nigerians without refinery capacity, renewable energy alternatives, or mechanized agricultural productivity—all of which could have cushioned the shock.
Political and Public Concerns
Prominent leaders have echoed these concerns. Mr. Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, described the subsidy removal as “good but wrongly timed.” Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party also faulted the government’s hasty approach. Human rights activists like Obodoekwe Stive stressed that refineries should have been made functional first, to reduce the suffering of citizens.
This is not just political rhetoric—it reflects a widespread economic reality. When inflation climbs above 30%, when purchasing power collapses, and when households cannot meet basic needs, the promise of reform becomes overshadowed by social pain.
Broader Implications
The consequences of this policy are multidimensional:
- Inflationary Pressures – Food inflation above 30% has made nutrition unaffordable for many households.
- Rising Poverty – 7.1 million Nigerians have been newly pushed into poverty (World Bank, 2023).
- Middle-Class Erosion – Rising transport, rent, and healthcare costs are squeezing household incomes.
- Debt Concerns – Despite promises, government borrowing has continued, raising sustainability questions.
- Public Distrust – When government promises savings but citizens feel only pain, trust in leadership erodes.
In effect, subsidy removal without structural readiness has widened inequality and eroded social stability.
Missed Opportunities
Nigeria’s leaders had the chance to approach subsidy removal differently:
- Refinery Rehabilitation – Ensuring local refining to reduce exposure to global oil price shocks.
- Renewable Energy Investment – Diversifying energy through solar, hydro, and wind to reduce reliance on imported petroleum.
- Agricultural Productivity – Mechanization, irrigation, and smallholder financing could have boosted food supply and stabilized prices.
- Social Safety Nets – Conditional cash transfers, food vouchers, and transport subsidies could have protected the most vulnerable.
Instead, reform came abruptly, leaving citizens to absorb all the pain while waiting for theoretical long-term benefits.
Conclusion: Reform With a Human Face
Fuel subsidy removal was inevitable, but Nigeria’s approach has worsened hardship for millions. True reform must go beyond fiscal savings to protect citizens.
Economic policy is not judged only by its efficiency but by its humanity. A well-sequenced reform could have balanced fiscal responsibility with equity, ensuring that ordinary Nigerians were not crushed under the weight of sudden change.
Nigeria has the resources, population, and resilience to lead Africa’s economy. But leadership requires foresight. It requires policies that are inclusive, humane, and strategically sequenced.
Reform without equity is displacement of poverty, not development. If Nigeria truly seeks progress, its policies must wear a human face.
References
- National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). (2023). Poverty and Inequality Report. Abuja.
- National Population Commission (NPC). (2023). Population Estimates. Abuja.
- World Bank. (2023). Nigeria Development Update. Washington, DC.
- World Bank. (2005). Fuel Subsidy Reforms: Lessons from Indonesia and Ghana. Washington, DC.
- OPEC. (2023). Annual Statistical Bulletin. Vienna.
By: Amarachi Amaugo