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Nigeria, Others May Lose $10bn To Political Tensions – IMF
The International Monetary Fund has said Nigeria could lose an estimated $10bn of foreign direct investment and official development assistance inflows to geo-political tensions.
The IMF in its country focus on Sub-Saharan Africa, released on Monday, said the figure is about a half per cent of the nation’s annual Gross Domestic Product.
The Washington-based lender said, “The losses could be compounded if capital flows between trade blocs were cut-off because of geo-political tensions. The region could lose an estimated $10bn of foreign direct investments and official development assistance inflow is about half a percent of GDP a year based on an average 2017–19 estimate). The reduction in FDI, in the long run, could also hinder much-needed technology transfer.”
IMF further said that if geopolitical tensions were to escalate, countries could be hit by higher import prices or even lose access to key export markets.
It added that about half of Sub-Saharan Africa’s value of global trade could be impacted.
The Washington-based lender also said that Sub-Saharan Africa could stand to lose the most if the world split into two isolated trading blocs centered on China or the United States and the European Union.
The IMF added the region’s economy could experience a permanent decline of up to four percent of its gross domestic product after 10 years.
“Sub-Saharan Africa could stand to lose the most if the world were to split into two isolated trading blocs centered around China or the United States and the European Union. In this severe scenario, sub-Saharan African economies could experience a permanent decline of up to four per cent of the real Gross Domestic Product after 10 years. According to our estimates, these are losses larger than what most countries experienced during the global financial crisis.”
According to IMF, economic and trade alliances with new economic partners, predominantly China, have benefited the region.
According to the report, economic trade alliances have also made countries reliant on imports of food and energy more susceptible to global shocks, including disruptions from the surge in trade restrictions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
It added, “For countries looking to restructure their debt, deepening geo-economic fragmen¬tation could also worsen coordination problems among creditors. The region would fare better if only the US/EU cut ties with Russia and sub-Saharan African countries continue to trade freely. In this scenario trade flows would be diverted towards the rest of the world, creating opportunities for new partnerships, and possibly boosting intra-regional trade.”
However, IMF said that because some African countries benefit from access to new export markets and cheaper imports, the region would not incur a GDP loss.
It added that oil exporters supplying energy to Europe could even gain. IMF called for strengthening the African Continental Free Trade Area to better manage these shocks properly.
It added, “To better manage shocks, countries need to build resilience. This can be done by strengthening the ongoing regional trade integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area, which will require reducing tariff and non-tariff trade barriers, strengthening efficiency in customs, leveraging digitalization, and closing the infrastructure gaps. Deepening domestic financial markets can also broaden sources of financing and lower the volatility associated with relying too much on foreign inflows. To take advantage of the potential shifts in trade and FDI flows, countries in the region can try to identify and nurture sectors that may benefit from trade diversion like energy. Commodity exporters in the region could potentially displace much of Russia’s energy market share in Europe.”
IMF advised countries in the region to rely on trade promotion agencies to help identify potential opportunities and build the necessary skills and capacity for exports.
“Countries can also rely on trade promotion agencies to help identify potential opportunities, build the necessary skills and capacity for exports, and eventually re-orient production to take advantage of new trade flows. Improving the business environment by lowering entry, regulatory, and tax barriers could also help. What the exact outcomes will be from fragmentation and polarization, and whether these trends will continue are uncertain. What is clear, however, are multilateral institutions will need to continue to facilitate dialogue among nations to promote economic integration and cooperation.”
The Organised Labour yesterday, called on the Federal Government to ensure inclusiveness in policy making and guide against erosion of rights, such as free speech and association.
The President, Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Mr Joe Ajaero made the call at the 2025 Workers’ Day celebration held at the Eagle’s Square, Abuja.
The Tide source reports Ajaero and the President, Trade Union Congress, Mr Festus Osifo delivered a joint statement on behalf of the organised labour at the event.
Ajaero described May Day as, not only a moment to honour workers’ sacrifices, but also a platform to demand justice and accountability from those in public office.
He frowned at the alleged suppression of protests, and the erosion of rights of workers by some agents
According to him, workers have a duty to resist economic injustice, insecurity, and policies that undermine their dignity.
Speaking on the theme of the day, the NLC President underscored the need for Nigerian workers to reclaim the civic space and resist policies that contribute to worsening economic conditions.
“Our theme this year – “Reclaiming the Civic Space in the midst of Economic Hardship – reflects the urgent need for citizens to protect democracy and push back against repression.
“The civic space, where Nigerians express their concerns and challenge injustices is shrinking.
“If we fail to reclaim this space, the foundation of our democracy risks collapse,” he said
Ajaero, therefore, urged workers to unite and resist division, fear, and despair.
He also urged them to mobilise and organise for change, declaring that the right to demand better conditions is non-negotiable.
“Without workers, there is no society; without labour, there is no development. We must take our place in the fight for economic justice and democratic governance.”
Speaking in the same veins, Osifo said workers are the backbone of the nation—the educators, healthcare providers, builders, farmers, and innovators who sustain its economy -.
He stressed the need for the labour to reclaim the civic space even in the midst of economic hardship.
The Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board (JAMB) has disassociated itself from a fraudulent site requesting payments from candidates who missed the ongoing 2025 Unified Tertiary Matriculation Examination (UTME).
The board said that the site, “Copyrightwriter Personal J Rescheduling Flw” and account number 8520641017 at Sterling Bank, associated with it, are scam.
The disclaimer is contained in a statement made available to newsmen in Abuja on Thursday by the Board’s Public Communication Advisor, Dr Fabian Benjamin.
Benjamin said the account is being exploited to defraud unsuspecting candidates who missed their UTME.
“We issue this urgent notice to inform the public about this nefarious scheme targeting candidates who were unable to participate in the UTME.
“Some unscrupulous individuals are deceitfully soliciting payments of N15,700 under the false pretence of offering rescheduling services for the examination.
“Let us be unequivocal: this, it is a blatant scam, and we are confident that the public will not fall prey to such cheap and regressive tactics.
” The individuals behind this scam have no affiliation with JAMB or any legitimate government agency.
“The account details provided in these communications are entirely fictitious and bear no connection to any official processes; they exist solely for the purpose of perpetrating fraud,” he said.
Benjamin called on Sterling bank to take immediate and decisive action against this criminal activity.
According to him, JAMB has reported the matter to the relevant security agencies and actively pursuing those responsible for this deceitful act.
He further said that “JAMB does not reschedule examinations for candidates who miss their scheduled tests due to reasons unrelated to the Board’s actions”.
He, however, said that the Board is conducting a thorough investigation for candidates whose biometrics failed during verification and were thus unable to sit for the examination.
He said those without discrepancies would be invited to retake the examination at no cost , stressing that “no cost is required”
“It is imperative to understand that JAMB does not charge any fees for examinations after a candidate has completed their registration.
“We strongly urge all candidates to remain vigilant and not to succumb to these fraudulent schemes.
“Protect yourselves and report any suspicious activity immediately,” he explained.
The Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) has expressed its willingness to partner with the United Nations (UN) to accelerate the development of the Niger Delta region.
Dr Samual Ogbuku, Managing Director of the NDDC, made the appeal in a statement issued by the commission’s Director of Corporate Affairs, Mrs Seledi Thompson-Wakama, in Port Harcourt on yesterday.
According to the statement, Ogbuku sought the UN’s support during his visit to the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator (UNRHC), Mr Mohammed Fall, at the UN regional office in Abuja.
He called on the global body to provide the NDDC with technical assistance and expert services to support the region’s development.
“We are eager to collaborate with the UN, recognising that the state governments in the region and the NDDC alone cannot achieve the level of regional development required,” he said.
Ogbuku identified key areas where support would be needed, including the provision of portable and affordable drinking water powered by high-tech solar energy sources.
He also highlighted the importance of reforesting the mangrove swamps, which have been severely damaged by decades of environmental degradation caused by oil exploration in the Niger Delta.
“Although the NDDC has made progress in providing solar-powered streetlights across the region, we still require UN support in delivering solar energy solutions for residential buildings.
“We also wish to explore the possibility of installing solar mini-grids in homes across communities, which would boost local commerce and trade,” he added.
The NDDC managing director further appealed for increased UN involvement in areas such as healthcare, education, youth training, gender development, and food security.
Ogunku stated that such interventions would significantly enhance the standard of living in the region.
In response, Fall affirmed the UN’s readiness to collaborate with the NDDC to fast track development in the Niger Delta.
He assured that the UN would support initiatives in food security, job creation, education, and renewable energy, among other areas.
“We aim to approach development in the Niger Delta holistically, rather than focusing solely on environmental pollution.
“This is merely an entry point; however, the UN’s development vision aligns with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which are designed to positively impact various aspects of people’s lives,” Fall stated.
He assured the NDDC of continued and fruitful engagements to drive the region’s development.