Politics
Outcome Of 2023 Polls Not Predictable – US Agency
Contrary to political permutations, the forthcoming presidential election in Nigeria would not be predictable, a United States-based election monitoring organisation, National Endowment for Democracy has said.
While describing the 2023 election in Nigeria as “a consequential election,” the US agency commended Nigeria for the technology-driven electoral process and expressed optimism that the country would be the second largest democracy in the world in 2050.
The President and Chief Executive Officer of NED, Damon Wilson, stated these in an interview with journalists in Abuja during a meeting convened by Yiaga Africa to interact with other stakeholders on preparations for the 2023 general elections.
The Tide source reports that NED, a private, non-profit foundation dedicated to the growth and strengthening of democratic institutions around the world, was established in 1983 by the American Congress for the promotion of world democracy.
Wilson said, “Nigeria is the fifth largest democracy in the world; it is on track that by 2050 to be the second largest democracy in the world, even bigger than the United States. But it has got a consequential election coming up in less than 40 days, building on seven elections since the transition.
“And we have seen in this time a Nigerian democracy that has ousted incumbents, where term limits have been enforced, peaceful transitions have taken place and now we have seen a country that is poised to have a more technically effective election that has bolstered the authority, the Independent National Electoral Commission, that is tapping technologies to help ensure greater credibility to vote at a time around the world, where things are kind of tough for democracy and elections in a lot of places are heading to roadblocks. Nigeria is offering an example of a world of progress and momentum.
“There is a lot of energy, a lot of enthusiasm and we are looking to understand that to learn from that and to see how we can help support that.”
He also pointed out that his organisation was not coming to predict who would win the elections or whether there would be a run-off.
Wilson, however, expressed concern over low voter turnouts during elections in Nigeria.
He added that Nigeria’s democracy was really evolving dramatically as the current presidential candidates have made it difficult for Nigerians to know who would win the election.
Wilson said, “It is not really my place to determine or predict the outcome of this election. I am a really interested observer and what I do see is that I watch relatively low voter turnout and your last election.
“And just by the conversations we are having, we do see a heightened level of engagement, heightened level interest, the fact that we’re less than 40 days out, and most Nigerians don’t know who’s going to win and they don’t know whether there’ll be a runoff.
“We have seen a surge of young voters being registered, I think in the last six months, INEC said they had seen in the last period, it was 70 per cent of those being registered were under the youth category. It’s pretty dramatic, remarkable.
“So what I have learned over and over again is even when democracies and elections are imperfect, elections become an opportunity for people to organize and express themselves. I have seen over and over again surprises and so I don’t know what is going to happen.
“That is kind of a beautiful thing for Nigeria, the largest democracy in Africa, to be going into an election, and you don’t know what’s going to happen. That is democracy in action. It is exciting and we are going to watch this.”
Wilson also expressed concerns over the protracted insecurity situation across the country ahead of the elections.
He said, “I guess there are two things happening; one is the overall security situation which has been difficult in the country, whether it is insurgency or terrorism or just banditry, kidnapping, other sources of instability that you know very well.
“But the truth is about 10,000 Nigerians who have died over the past years from security incidents, that is extraordinarily high, and it does create a difficult environment where people will feel that they have got to have security to be able to vote?
“What I was briefed on election related violence, which is much less election related violence is serious because it is targeted towards elections that we have seen political actors who have been, in some cases killed other places intimidated, INEC offices attacked. And so what was really interesting from the briefings we saw was that Nigerians are organizing to be able to track this to document it, to report it, to take it to authorities to see if security forces are understanding where their efforts to intimidate and voter turnout four years ago, they can anticipate that today.
“So while this is a major issue, no doubt that I am hearing from Nigerians, I also see a lot of Nigerians focused on this issue of how they can actually provide a greater sense of security, how they can be better prepared, how they can anticipate where there are problems.
“And so ultimately, this is going to be an issue for this election but I am hopeful that it won’t be an issue that will be so disruptive. That said, anybody needs to feel secure to express their vote. That is a sacrosanct act in any democracy.”
The Tide source reports that Prof. Akinoso was elected alongside 38 other executive members of the party at the congress held on Saturday.
Other executive members are Dr Abiola Olaonipekun, who emerged as Secretary, Alhaja Latifah Latifu, Women Leader and Mr A. Adeleke, elected as Youth Leader.
It was learnt that the congress, which took place at the Obafemi Awolowo Stadium, Oke Ado in Ibadan, was attended by representatives of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the Police, other security agencies and prominent members of the party.
The election was supervised by electoral committee members, among whom were Prince Diran Odeyemi, who served as Chairman, Hon. Awoniyi Tolulope, Mr Babatunde Gbadamosi, Queen Stepheine Oyechere, Alhaji Yusuf Abidakun, Mr Olumide Aguda and Dr Phillips Adeniyi, who served as Secretary.
Prof. Akinoso, in his inaugural address, urged members of the party to set aside intra-party differences.
He advised them to concentrate their resources on the promotion of the party, saying, “The primary responsibilities of party executive members are to coordinate party activities, ensure harmony among members, and ensure party victory during general elections.
“Our immediate assignments are to key into INEC released 2027 general election time-tables. As directed by the National Caretaker Committee of PDP, our party e-membership registration starts next week. We must be fully involved and do a membership drive.
“A political party is only relevant and benefits its members if it wins the election. This is our goal. We should set aside intra-party differences; concentrate our resources towards the promotion of the party. We will make necessary consultations and dialogue to actualise this”.
President Tinubu disclosed this during an interfaith breaking of fast with senior journalists and media executives at the Presidential Villa in Abuja on Saturday.
He also disclosed that his administration had opened up on the principles of true federalism to the extent that local governments now get direct allocation from the Federal Government.
“There’s no morning that I ever leave my house without going through the newspapers. It’s an addiction. I read all of you.
“It might not be in full detail, but headline, the one that would hit me and the ones that won’t.
“At the beginning of this administration, I was just a little bit stubborn, looking at opportunities to correct things and make life more easier for the downtrodden.
“We’ve opened up the principle of federalism to the extent that local governments are now getting their money, but how they use it is in your hands. So, don’t bombard me alone,” President Tinubu said.
The ruling party said the ADC had turned criticism of the APC-led administration into its operating manifesto instead of presenting concrete solutions to Nigeria’s economic challenges.
In a statement issued on Saturday by the APC National Publicity Secretary, Mr Felix Morka, the party dismissed the ADC’s interpretation of a report presented at a policy dialogue organised by Agora Policy which suggested that the country’s poverty rate had risen from 49 per cent to 63 per cent.
Mr Morka said the opposition party’s reaction to the report as a “damning verdict” on the government’s economic policies reflected either ignorance of economic realities or deliberate political mischief.
“The African Democratic Congress’ attempt to spin a recent report presented at the Agora Policy dialogue indicating a rise of poverty rate of 63 per cent from 49 per cent as a damning verdict on this administration’s economic policies speaks either to its shocking ignorance of economic policy or its wilful blindness to the justification for, and transformative impacts of, ongoing economic reforms,” he said.
The APC spokesman noted that the report itself recognised the necessity of reforms aimed at correcting long-standing structural distortions in the economy.
According to him, the ADC had failed to present any credible alternative policy direction for Nigerians.
“Clearly, the ADC does not recognise itself as a political party. The ADC has not articulated a single alternative policy position or prescription of benefit to Nigerians. Condemning the APC and its policies has become its operating manifesto,” Mr Morka said.
He explained that major economic decisions taken by President Bola Tinubu, including the removal of fuel subsidy and the unification of multiple foreign exchange windows, were necessary steps to rescue the country’s economy from collapse.
Mr Morka said the subsidy regime had for years placed a heavy burden on public finances, consuming trillions of naira annually while encouraging corruption, fuel smuggling and inefficiencies in the system.
He added that the reforms had helped redirect national resources to key sectors such as infrastructure, healthcare, education and social development.
The APC spokesman acknowledged that economic reforms often come with short-term hardship but stressed that the measures were essential to build a stronger and more resilient economy.
“Economic reform is never cost-free anywhere in the world. The transient hardship experienced by Nigerians was an inevitable cost of reforms meant to build and guarantee a better future for all Nigerians,” he said.
Mr Morka maintained that the country’s economic outlook was already improving, citing recent growth figures and stronger external reserves.
“Our economy has rebounded and is expanding steadily. The country’s Gross Domestic Product grew by 4.4 per cent last year and is projected to expand by 5.5 per cent this fiscal year, with foreign reserves now exceeding $50 billion,” he stated.
He also pointed to government initiatives designed to cushion the effects of economic adjustments on citizens, including cash transfer programmes, student loan schemes and the rollout of compressed natural gas (CNG) initiatives to reduce transportation costs.
Mr Morka reaffirmed that the APC-led administration would remain focused on rebuilding the economy and expanding social investments to support vulnerable Nigerians.
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