Politics
Outcome Of 2023 Polls Not Predictable – US Agency
Contrary to political permutations, the forthcoming presidential election in Nigeria would not be predictable, a United States-based election monitoring organisation, National Endowment for Democracy has said.
While describing the 2023 election in Nigeria as “a consequential election,” the US agency commended Nigeria for the technology-driven electoral process and expressed optimism that the country would be the second largest democracy in the world in 2050.
The President and Chief Executive Officer of NED, Damon Wilson, stated these in an interview with journalists in Abuja during a meeting convened by Yiaga Africa to interact with other stakeholders on preparations for the 2023 general elections.
The Tide source reports that NED, a private, non-profit foundation dedicated to the growth and strengthening of democratic institutions around the world, was established in 1983 by the American Congress for the promotion of world democracy.
Wilson said, “Nigeria is the fifth largest democracy in the world; it is on track that by 2050 to be the second largest democracy in the world, even bigger than the United States. But it has got a consequential election coming up in less than 40 days, building on seven elections since the transition.
“And we have seen in this time a Nigerian democracy that has ousted incumbents, where term limits have been enforced, peaceful transitions have taken place and now we have seen a country that is poised to have a more technically effective election that has bolstered the authority, the Independent National Electoral Commission, that is tapping technologies to help ensure greater credibility to vote at a time around the world, where things are kind of tough for democracy and elections in a lot of places are heading to roadblocks. Nigeria is offering an example of a world of progress and momentum.
“There is a lot of energy, a lot of enthusiasm and we are looking to understand that to learn from that and to see how we can help support that.”
He also pointed out that his organisation was not coming to predict who would win the elections or whether there would be a run-off.
Wilson, however, expressed concern over low voter turnouts during elections in Nigeria.
He added that Nigeria’s democracy was really evolving dramatically as the current presidential candidates have made it difficult for Nigerians to know who would win the election.
Wilson said, “It is not really my place to determine or predict the outcome of this election. I am a really interested observer and what I do see is that I watch relatively low voter turnout and your last election.
“And just by the conversations we are having, we do see a heightened level of engagement, heightened level interest, the fact that we’re less than 40 days out, and most Nigerians don’t know who’s going to win and they don’t know whether there’ll be a runoff.
“We have seen a surge of young voters being registered, I think in the last six months, INEC said they had seen in the last period, it was 70 per cent of those being registered were under the youth category. It’s pretty dramatic, remarkable.
“So what I have learned over and over again is even when democracies and elections are imperfect, elections become an opportunity for people to organize and express themselves. I have seen over and over again surprises and so I don’t know what is going to happen.
“That is kind of a beautiful thing for Nigeria, the largest democracy in Africa, to be going into an election, and you don’t know what’s going to happen. That is democracy in action. It is exciting and we are going to watch this.”
Wilson also expressed concerns over the protracted insecurity situation across the country ahead of the elections.
He said, “I guess there are two things happening; one is the overall security situation which has been difficult in the country, whether it is insurgency or terrorism or just banditry, kidnapping, other sources of instability that you know very well.
“But the truth is about 10,000 Nigerians who have died over the past years from security incidents, that is extraordinarily high, and it does create a difficult environment where people will feel that they have got to have security to be able to vote?
“What I was briefed on election related violence, which is much less election related violence is serious because it is targeted towards elections that we have seen political actors who have been, in some cases killed other places intimidated, INEC offices attacked. And so what was really interesting from the briefings we saw was that Nigerians are organizing to be able to track this to document it, to report it, to take it to authorities to see if security forces are understanding where their efforts to intimidate and voter turnout four years ago, they can anticipate that today.
“So while this is a major issue, no doubt that I am hearing from Nigerians, I also see a lot of Nigerians focused on this issue of how they can actually provide a greater sense of security, how they can be better prepared, how they can anticipate where there are problems.
“And so ultimately, this is going to be an issue for this election but I am hopeful that it won’t be an issue that will be so disruptive. That said, anybody needs to feel secure to express their vote. That is a sacrosanct act in any democracy.”
The Rivers contest is expected to draw heightened attention in the oil-rich state, as political actors position for influence in a district long regarded as strategic to the balance of power in Rivers State.
INEC disclosed that the by-elections will hold concurrently with the Ekiti State governorship election, underscoring what promises to be a politically charged day across several parts of the country.
Beyond Rivers, the electoral body listed other affected constituencies to include Nasarawa North Senatorial District, Dawakin Kudu/Warawa Federal Constituency in Kano State, Ondo South Senatorial District, and Enugu North Senatorial District.
The vacancies, according to INEC, arose from a combination of deaths, resignation, and other constitutional developments. In Nasarawa, the demise of Senator Godiya Akwashika has left a gap in a district considered a stronghold of the All Progressives Congress (APC). In Enugu, the passing of Senator Okey Ezea has set the stage for a competitive race in the South-East.
Similarly, the Ondo South seat became vacant following the resignation of Senator Jimoh Ibrahim, who now serves as Nigeria’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, while the Dawakin Kudu/Warawa seat in Kano opened up after the death of Hon. Muhammad Danjuma Hassan.
Analysts say the Rivers South-East by-election, in particular, could reshape political alignments in the state, as parties jostle to fill the void left by Sen. Mpigi and consolidate their foothold ahead of future electoral contests.
Stakeholder from Bayelsa East Senatorial District, on Monday, endorsed the incumbent Senator representing them to run for a second term.
Leading the stakeholders, the former Commissioner for Culture and Tourism and Special Adviser to Governor Douye Diri on Political Affairs (iii), Dr Iti Orugbani, said the reason for the endorsement was based on the federal lawmaker’s trajectory of good deeds and massive execution of projects across communities of the Senatorial district.
Dr Orugbani highlighted some of the projects to include landing jetties, telecommunication masts and town halls amongst others, noting that Sen. Agadaga’s performance has exceeded those of others who hitherto represented the oil rich area.
Bayelsa East Senatorial District comprises Ogbia, Brass and Nembe Local Government Areas of the State.
The Governor’s aide who called on the State’s Eastern political enclave to respect the 2022 new zoning agreement, which guaranteed second term for Senators from the District, stressed the need for political tolerance and peace in the forthcoming 2027 polls.
“In 2022 the leaders and stakeholders across party lines from Bayelsa East held a meeting and altered the old single term for Senators from the district’s agreement and signed that begining from 2023 any Senator emerging from the district must serve for a minimum of two terms.
“In 2023, Senator Biobarakuma Degi-Eremienyo, then an incumbent Senator representing the Senatorial district under the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) was given a second term ticket by the party. Though he lost to the PDP.
“Now that the entire state is now APC and the District has an APC Senator in the person of Benson Agadaga from Ogbia LGA, why not also give him a second tenure?
“The stakeholders in 2022 changed the old political agreement because they saw that it wasn’t beneficial to the district any longer. And so, because it was Ogbia Local Government Area that started the old zoning arrangement by producing the first Senator in 1999, I want to plead that let Ogbia also begin the new two terms zoning agreement”, he said.
Also speaking, the duo of woman leader of a support group, ‘Agadema Women’, Mrs. Owadaba Jokori and the Information Officer of the Ijaw Youths Council (IYC), Central Zone, Comrade Ikio, stated that the incumbent Senator has done well for the district in the past three years that he has been in office.
They lauded the federal lawmaker for his infrastructure projects, especially the construction of landing jetties in select communities of the three local government areas of the district, commending stakeholders for supporting the lawmaker in his second term bid.
In his remarks, Senator Agadaga thanked the stakeholders for the confidence reposed in him and the endorsements he has received lately from constituents and admirers across political parties.
The lawmaker noted that within the past three years that he has been Senator, he has delivered dividends of democracy to his constituents across the Senatorial District, emphasizing that the call for him to be senator from the Brass Senatorial District came to him as a surprise, noting that he accepted the clarion call when the clamour became so loud.
“I was Chief of Staff to the State Governor, Senator Douye Diri, when various groups from the zone came calling on me to contest the 2023 Senatorial polls.
“Ever since winning the elections as a senator, I’ve continued to deliver on my mandate in both representation, lawmaking, oversight, project execution and support for constituents when called upon. And I shall continue to do more if elected for a second term”, the Senator said.
By Ariwera Ibibo-Howells, Yenagoa
Justice Peter Lifu of the Federal High Court in Abuja has set May 15 as deadline for definite hearing in a suit filed by a lawyer, Johnmary Jideobi, seeking to stop former President Goodluck Jonathan from contesting the 2027 presidential election.
The judge on Monday shifted the hearing date following the absence of the plaintiff, Mr Jideobi, and his lawyer in court without any information.
Apart from the absence of the plaintiff, who is a legal practitioner, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the Attorney General of the Federation (AGF) and Minister of Justice, who are 2nd and 3rd defendants in the matter, were also not in court.
Following the absence of the plaintiff and the two defendants, Chris Uche, SAN, representing Dr Jonathan, applied to the court to strike out the suit for lack of diligent prosecution.
Having joined issues with each other, Mr Uche said, the suit is liable for dismissal with a N5 million cost to be awarded against the plaintiff and payable to Dr Jonathan.
He argued that from all indications, the plaintiff has abandoned the suit and ran away upon sighting the preliminary objections raised against the suit, adding that the court is a busy place and not for unserious matters.
Justice Lifu, however, noted that there was no evidence of service of hearing notice on INEC and AGF to appear in court for the suit, adding that lack of service of hearing notice is fundamental.
The judge said rather than striking out the suit, he prefers to bend backward to accommodate the plaintiff and the two defendants for the last time.
While adjourning the matter to May 15, Justice Lifu ordered that hearing notice be served on the plaintiff and the 2nd and 3rd defendants who were not in court on Monday.
The plaintiff, Mr Jideobi, had filed the case seeking an order to restrain Dr Jonathan from presenting himself to any political party as an aspirant for the 2027 election.
He is also asking the court to stop INEC from accepting, processing or publishing Dr Jonathan’s name as a presidential candidate.
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