Politics
Outcome Of 2023 Polls Not Predictable – US Agency
Contrary to political permutations, the forthcoming presidential election in Nigeria would not be predictable, a United States-based election monitoring organisation, National Endowment for Democracy has said.
While describing the 2023 election in Nigeria as “a consequential election,” the US agency commended Nigeria for the technology-driven electoral process and expressed optimism that the country would be the second largest democracy in the world in 2050.
The President and Chief Executive Officer of NED, Damon Wilson, stated these in an interview with journalists in Abuja during a meeting convened by Yiaga Africa to interact with other stakeholders on preparations for the 2023 general elections.
The Tide source reports that NED, a private, non-profit foundation dedicated to the growth and strengthening of democratic institutions around the world, was established in 1983 by the American Congress for the promotion of world democracy.
Wilson said, “Nigeria is the fifth largest democracy in the world; it is on track that by 2050 to be the second largest democracy in the world, even bigger than the United States. But it has got a consequential election coming up in less than 40 days, building on seven elections since the transition.
“And we have seen in this time a Nigerian democracy that has ousted incumbents, where term limits have been enforced, peaceful transitions have taken place and now we have seen a country that is poised to have a more technically effective election that has bolstered the authority, the Independent National Electoral Commission, that is tapping technologies to help ensure greater credibility to vote at a time around the world, where things are kind of tough for democracy and elections in a lot of places are heading to roadblocks. Nigeria is offering an example of a world of progress and momentum.
“There is a lot of energy, a lot of enthusiasm and we are looking to understand that to learn from that and to see how we can help support that.”
He also pointed out that his organisation was not coming to predict who would win the elections or whether there would be a run-off.
Wilson, however, expressed concern over low voter turnouts during elections in Nigeria.
He added that Nigeria’s democracy was really evolving dramatically as the current presidential candidates have made it difficult for Nigerians to know who would win the election.
Wilson said, “It is not really my place to determine or predict the outcome of this election. I am a really interested observer and what I do see is that I watch relatively low voter turnout and your last election.
“And just by the conversations we are having, we do see a heightened level of engagement, heightened level interest, the fact that we’re less than 40 days out, and most Nigerians don’t know who’s going to win and they don’t know whether there’ll be a runoff.
“We have seen a surge of young voters being registered, I think in the last six months, INEC said they had seen in the last period, it was 70 per cent of those being registered were under the youth category. It’s pretty dramatic, remarkable.
“So what I have learned over and over again is even when democracies and elections are imperfect, elections become an opportunity for people to organize and express themselves. I have seen over and over again surprises and so I don’t know what is going to happen.
“That is kind of a beautiful thing for Nigeria, the largest democracy in Africa, to be going into an election, and you don’t know what’s going to happen. That is democracy in action. It is exciting and we are going to watch this.”
Wilson also expressed concerns over the protracted insecurity situation across the country ahead of the elections.
He said, “I guess there are two things happening; one is the overall security situation which has been difficult in the country, whether it is insurgency or terrorism or just banditry, kidnapping, other sources of instability that you know very well.
“But the truth is about 10,000 Nigerians who have died over the past years from security incidents, that is extraordinarily high, and it does create a difficult environment where people will feel that they have got to have security to be able to vote?
“What I was briefed on election related violence, which is much less election related violence is serious because it is targeted towards elections that we have seen political actors who have been, in some cases killed other places intimidated, INEC offices attacked. And so what was really interesting from the briefings we saw was that Nigerians are organizing to be able to track this to document it, to report it, to take it to authorities to see if security forces are understanding where their efforts to intimidate and voter turnout four years ago, they can anticipate that today.
“So while this is a major issue, no doubt that I am hearing from Nigerians, I also see a lot of Nigerians focused on this issue of how they can actually provide a greater sense of security, how they can be better prepared, how they can anticipate where there are problems.
“And so ultimately, this is going to be an issue for this election but I am hopeful that it won’t be an issue that will be so disruptive. That said, anybody needs to feel secure to express their vote. That is a sacrosanct act in any democracy.”
Oyo State Governor, ‘Seyi Makinde, has renamed The Polytechnic, Ibadan as Omololu Olunloyo Polytechnic, Ibadan, in honour of a late former governor of the State, Dr Omololu Olunloyo.
Dr Olunloyo, who died on April 6, 2025, was the pioneer Principal of the Polytechnic, Ibadan, while he also served as Governor of Oyo State between October 1 and December 31, 1983.
Governor Makinde made the announcement at the state interdenominational funeral service held yesterday in honour of the late former governor at the Obafemi Awolowo Stadium, Liberty Road, Ibadan.
Governor Makinde said Dr Olunloyo lived an eventful life, adding that his attainment and personality could not be summarised in one sentence.
“He was not a man we could summarise in one sentence. He was a scholar, a statesman, a technocrat, a lover of culture and, above all, a man of deep conviction.
“While giving the exhortation, I was listening to Baba Archbishop Ayo Ladigbolu and he said in 1983, Baba became Governor of Oyo State. Though his time in office was brief, his election victory over a popular incumbent remains a powerful testament to the trust people gave him.
“I talked about preserving and digitising his library yesterday [Wednesday] as a mark of honour to Baba Olunloyo.
“Today, we will be giving Baba another honour to immortalise him. He was the first Principal of The Polytechnic, Ibadan; that institution will now be named Omololu Olunloyo Polytechnic, Ibadan.”
Earlier in his sermon, a retired Methodist Archbishop of Ilesa and Ibadan, Ayo Ladigbolu, described the late Olunloyo as a role model with intellectual inspiration and unassailable integrity.
The cleric said the deceased also demonstrated leadership in most superior quality during his lifetime.
In attendance were the state Deputy Governor, Chief Abdulraheem Bayo Lawal; wife of a former Military Governor of the old Oyo State, Chief (Mrs) Dupe Jemibewon; wife of a former Governor of Oyo State, Chief (Mrs) Mutiat Ladoja; former Deputy Governor and PDP Deputy National Chairman (South), Ambassador Taofeek Arapaja; and former Deputy Governor, Hazeem Gbolarumi.
Others were the member representing Ibadan North-East/South-East Federal Constituency, Hon Abass Adigun Agboworin; Chief of Staff to the Governor, Otunba Segun Ogunwuyi; Oyo State Exco members; Chairman of Oyo State Elders’ Council, Dr Saka Balogun; Chairman of All Local Government Chairmen in Oyo State, Hon Sikiru Sanda; President-General of the Central Council of Ibadan Indigenes (CCII), Chief Adeniyi Ajewole; religious leaders and family members, among other dignitaries.
Ten members of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) National Working Committee (NWC) have countered the Acting National Chairman, Umar Damagum, on the reinstatement of Senator Samuel Anyanwu as National Secretary.
The dissenting members, led by the Deputy National Chairman ( South), Taofeek Arapaja, in a joint statement, said no organ of the opposition party could overturn the decision of the 99th meeting of the National Executive Committee (NEC).
The dissenting NWC members include Arapaja; Setonji Koshoedo, Deputy National Secretary; Okechukwu Obiechina-Daniel, National Auditor; Debo Ologunagba, National Publicity Secretary; Ologunagba; Woyengikuro Daniel, National Financial Secretary and Ahmed Yayari Mohammed, National Treasurer.
Others are Chief Ali Odefa, National Vice Chairman (South East); Emmanuel Ogidi, Caretaker Committee Chairman (South South); Mrs. Amina Darasimi D. Bryhm, National Woman Leader and Ajisafe Kamoru Toyese, National Vice Chairman (South West).
The group also insisted that contrary to the position of the acting National Chairman, the 100th NEC meeting of the party would be held on June 30 as earlier scheduled.
The statement read: “The attention of the National Working Committee (NWC) of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has been drawn to a press briefing by the acting National Chairman, Amb. Umar Damagum, today Wednesday, June 25, wherein he attempted to overturn the resolution of the 99th National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting which scheduled the 100th NEC meeting for Monday, June 30.
“The acting National Chairman in the said press briefing also reportedly announced that Senator Samuel Anyanwu has been asked to resume as National Secretary of the party contrary to the resolution of the 99th NEC meeting, which referred all matters relating to the office of the National Secretary to the 100th NEC meeting.
“The pronouncements by the acting National Chairman have no foundation as no organ of the party (including the NWC), individual or group has the power to cancel, overrule, veto or vary the resolution of the National Executive Committee (NEC) under the Constitution of the PDP (as amended in 2017).
“For the avoidance of doubt, the NEC is the highest decision-making organ of the party, second only to the National Convention. By virtue of Section 31 (3) of the PDP Constitution, the resolution of the NEC to hold its 100th meeting on Monday June 30, is binding on all organs, officers, chapters and members of the party and no organ, group or individual can vary or veto this resolution of NEC.
“Furthermore, the claim by Damagum that Sen Anyanwu has been asked to resume office as the National Secretary of the party is, therefore, misleading being contrary to the resolution of NEC.
“In the light of the foregoing, the 100th NEC meeting as scheduled for Monday, June 30, has not been canceled or postponed.”
The Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, has fired back at former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, following the latter’s scathing criticism of President Tinubu’s administration and his 2027 re-election prospects.
In an interview on live television, Mallam El-Rufai said it would take a “miracle” for President Tinubu to be re-elected in 2027, citing an internal poll that purportedly shows a 91 percent disapproval rating for the president across key regions in the country, including the South-East and the North. He also claimed that President Tinubu’s disapproval rating in Lagos stood at 78 percent.
Reacting on Wednesday via a post on X (formerly Twitter), Mr Onanuga took a swipe at the ex-governor, quoting a harsh assessment of Mallam El-Rufai’s character from former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s memoir, My Watch.
“Nasir’s penchant for reputation savaging is almost pathological,” Mr Onanuga wrote, citing Chief Obasanjo’s words. “Why does he do it? Very early in my interaction with him, I appreciated his talent. At the same time, I recognised his weaknesses; the worst being his inability to be loyal to anybody or any issue consistently for long, but only to Nasir El-Rufai.”
The presidential adviser emphasised Chief Obasanjo’s remarks that Mallam El-Rufai often tries to elevate himself by diminishing others. “He lied brazenly, which he did to me, against his colleagues and so-called friends,” Mr Onanuga continued, quoting the former President. “I have heard of how he ruthlessly savaged the reputation of his uncle, a man who, in an African setting, was like a foster father to him.”
Chief Obasanjo, who appointed Mallam El-Rufai as the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory between 2003 and 2007, did not mince words in the memoir, describing Mallam El-Rufai as suffering from “small man syndrome.”
Mr Onanuga’s post is seen as a direct rebuttal to Mallam El-Rufai’s recent criticism and growing opposition role. The former governor is reportedly playing a central role in forming a new coalition to challenge President Tinubu in the 2027 general election.
In March 2025, El-Rufai officially dumped the All Progressives Congress (APC) and joined the Social Democratic Party (SDP), intensifying speculations about his 2027 political ambitions.
As the political rift deepens, Mallam El-Rufai remains one of the most vocal critics of the Tinubu administration, while Mr Onanuga and other presidential allies continue to push back against what they describe as “reckless” opposition rhetoric.