Politics
Outcome Of 2023 Polls Not Predictable – US Agency
Contrary to political permutations, the forthcoming presidential election in Nigeria would not be predictable, a United States-based election monitoring organisation, National Endowment for Democracy has said.
While describing the 2023 election in Nigeria as “a consequential election,” the US agency commended Nigeria for the technology-driven electoral process and expressed optimism that the country would be the second largest democracy in the world in 2050.
The President and Chief Executive Officer of NED, Damon Wilson, stated these in an interview with journalists in Abuja during a meeting convened by Yiaga Africa to interact with other stakeholders on preparations for the 2023 general elections.
The Tide source reports that NED, a private, non-profit foundation dedicated to the growth and strengthening of democratic institutions around the world, was established in 1983 by the American Congress for the promotion of world democracy.
Wilson said, “Nigeria is the fifth largest democracy in the world; it is on track that by 2050 to be the second largest democracy in the world, even bigger than the United States. But it has got a consequential election coming up in less than 40 days, building on seven elections since the transition.
“And we have seen in this time a Nigerian democracy that has ousted incumbents, where term limits have been enforced, peaceful transitions have taken place and now we have seen a country that is poised to have a more technically effective election that has bolstered the authority, the Independent National Electoral Commission, that is tapping technologies to help ensure greater credibility to vote at a time around the world, where things are kind of tough for democracy and elections in a lot of places are heading to roadblocks. Nigeria is offering an example of a world of progress and momentum.
“There is a lot of energy, a lot of enthusiasm and we are looking to understand that to learn from that and to see how we can help support that.”
He also pointed out that his organisation was not coming to predict who would win the elections or whether there would be a run-off.
Wilson, however, expressed concern over low voter turnouts during elections in Nigeria.
He added that Nigeria’s democracy was really evolving dramatically as the current presidential candidates have made it difficult for Nigerians to know who would win the election.
Wilson said, “It is not really my place to determine or predict the outcome of this election. I am a really interested observer and what I do see is that I watch relatively low voter turnout and your last election.
“And just by the conversations we are having, we do see a heightened level of engagement, heightened level interest, the fact that we’re less than 40 days out, and most Nigerians don’t know who’s going to win and they don’t know whether there’ll be a runoff.
“We have seen a surge of young voters being registered, I think in the last six months, INEC said they had seen in the last period, it was 70 per cent of those being registered were under the youth category. It’s pretty dramatic, remarkable.
“So what I have learned over and over again is even when democracies and elections are imperfect, elections become an opportunity for people to organize and express themselves. I have seen over and over again surprises and so I don’t know what is going to happen.
“That is kind of a beautiful thing for Nigeria, the largest democracy in Africa, to be going into an election, and you don’t know what’s going to happen. That is democracy in action. It is exciting and we are going to watch this.”
Wilson also expressed concerns over the protracted insecurity situation across the country ahead of the elections.
He said, “I guess there are two things happening; one is the overall security situation which has been difficult in the country, whether it is insurgency or terrorism or just banditry, kidnapping, other sources of instability that you know very well.
“But the truth is about 10,000 Nigerians who have died over the past years from security incidents, that is extraordinarily high, and it does create a difficult environment where people will feel that they have got to have security to be able to vote?
“What I was briefed on election related violence, which is much less election related violence is serious because it is targeted towards elections that we have seen political actors who have been, in some cases killed other places intimidated, INEC offices attacked. And so what was really interesting from the briefings we saw was that Nigerians are organizing to be able to track this to document it, to report it, to take it to authorities to see if security forces are understanding where their efforts to intimidate and voter turnout four years ago, they can anticipate that today.
“So while this is a major issue, no doubt that I am hearing from Nigerians, I also see a lot of Nigerians focused on this issue of how they can actually provide a greater sense of security, how they can be better prepared, how they can anticipate where there are problems.
“And so ultimately, this is going to be an issue for this election but I am hopeful that it won’t be an issue that will be so disruptive. That said, anybody needs to feel secure to express their vote. That is a sacrosanct act in any democracy.”
Alhaji Abubakar, who is also the 2027 presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), stressed that Chief Obasanjo’s latest public outburst against him is yet another failed attempt to rewrite history.
Alhaji Abubakar specifically said that if the true history of Chief Obasanjo’s political journey is ever written—free from selective recollection and personal bitterness, he (Atiku) would feature prominently as one of those whom God used to change the course of his (Obasanjo) life and political career.
These were contained in a statement the Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication to the former Vice President, Mr Phrank Shaibu, released in which Atiku said he watched the former President’s interview with profound sadness, but not anger, because it reflected the disposition of a man who has allowed personal resentment to cloud historical truth.
Alhaji Abubakar said the genesis of Chief Obasanjo’s hostility towards him is well known to Nigerians, stressing that he is proud that he stood against the third-term agenda and stood by the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
In the words of Alhaji Abubakar: “I have no apology whatsoever for frustrating every attempt to subvert our democracy for personal ambition. If Chief Obasanjo’s bitterness stems from my refusal to support an unconstitutional third term, then I wear that resentment as a badge of honour.
“No individual, regardless of his status or accomplishments, is bigger than the Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Constitution is supreme, and I chose Nigeria over personal loyalty”.
Alhaji Abubakar noted that the struggle against the third-term agenda was never about two individuals, but about preserving Nigeria’s constitutional democracy for future generations.
He said: “The Nigerian people won that battle. Democracy won that battle. History has already delivered its verdict. It Is therefore unfortunate that the same man whose unconstitutional ambition was resisted now seeks to sit in judgment over those who defended the Constitution”.
The ADC Presidential candidate said it was particularly instructive that barely twenty-four hours before Chief Obasanjo’s latest outburst, the Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, publicly paid glowing tribute to the economic management team he led, describing it as “the best Nigeria has ever had”.
“Whether or not the timing is merely coincidental is for Nigerians to judge. What is beyond dispute, however, is that while distinguished Nigerians who served at the highest levels continue to acknowledge my contributions to one of Nigeria’s most successful periods of economic management, Chief Obasanjo appears determined to diminish them.
“Chief Obasanjo may choose not to appreciate my role in building one of Nigeria’s most prosperous economic eras, but history has been far kinder. The record speaks for itself, and so do the testimonies of those who worked closely with that administration,” he said.
Alhaji Abubakar further stated that Nigerians also deserve to remember the other side of history which Chief Obasanjo conveniently omits, saying: “History records that while Chief Obasanjo was in prison, I stood firmly by him. I supported his family, worked tirelessly with other patriots for his release and never wavered in my belief that he deserved his freedom”.
He further said: “When he eventually regained his freedom, he had little to his name. I received him, clothed him, ensured he was properly cared for and extended every support necessary to help him regain his footing.
“Beyond that, I mobilised political structures, built alliances and made enormous personal and political sacrifices that culminated in his emergence as President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria”.
Alhaji Abubakar, however, said he harbours no regrets over any of those acts.
According to him: “Do I regret helping Chief Obasanjo? Absolutely not. When God gives you the opportunity to lift another human being, you do so without expecting repayment. Acts of kindness are matters of conscience, not commercial transactions”.
He added, however, that gratitude should never be replaced with revisionism.
Alhaji Abubakar particularly expressed disappointment that, at a time when Nigeria is battling economic hardship, mass unemployment, insecurity and widespread despair, a former President would devote so much energy to recycling old grudges instead of contributing solutions to the country’s challenges.
In the words of Atiku: “The 2027 election should be about rebuilding Nigeria, restoring security, reviving the economy and giving hope to the next generation—not reopening old political wounds”.
The former Vice President said he had deliberately maintained restraint over the years out of respect for the office Chief Obasanjo once occupied and in deference to the relationship they once shared.
He said: “That restraint should never be mistaken for weakness or docility. There comes a point when silence in the face of repeated distortions of history ceases to be a virtue. While I have no desire to engage in a public quarrel with a man I once stood beside in his most difficult moments, neither will I permit falsehoods, half-truths and calculated attempts to rewrite history to go unanswered.
“Chief Obasanjo is entitled to his opinions. He is entitled to his personal grievances. What he is not entitled to, are his own facts,” Alhaji Abubakar insisted.
The ADC presidential candidate reaffirmed that his attention remains firmly fixed on Nigeria’s future.
According to him; “I have chosen the path of service over resentment, vision over vendetta and national renewal over personal recrimination. Those who mistake my civility for capitulation, or my restraint for weakness, make a grave mistake.
“History is stubborn. It cannot be rewritten by bitterness, nor erased by repeated falsehoods. In the end, history will render its verdict—and so will the Nigerian people,” he stated.
According to the electoral umpire, campaigns for the presidential and National Assembly elections will commence on August 19, 2026, and end on January 15, 2027, exactly 24 hours before the elections scheduled for January 16, 2027.
INEC also announced that campaigns for governorship and State Houses of Assembly elections will begin on September 9, 2026, and conclude on February 5, 2027, ahead of the polls slated for February 6, 2027.
The commission explained that the campaign schedule complies with the Electoral Act 2026, which stipulates that electioneering activities must not begin earlier than 150 days before an election and must end at least 24 hours before voting.
INEC urged political parties, candidates and other stakeholders to strictly adhere to the approved timetable and conduct their campaigns in accordance with the law, while encouraging the public to obtain electoral information only from its official communication channels to avoid misinformation.
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