Politics
Outcome Of 2023 Polls Not Predictable – US Agency
Contrary to political permutations, the forthcoming presidential election in Nigeria would not be predictable, a United States-based election monitoring organisation, National Endowment for Democracy has said.
While describing the 2023 election in Nigeria as “a consequential election,” the US agency commended Nigeria for the technology-driven electoral process and expressed optimism that the country would be the second largest democracy in the world in 2050.
The President and Chief Executive Officer of NED, Damon Wilson, stated these in an interview with journalists in Abuja during a meeting convened by Yiaga Africa to interact with other stakeholders on preparations for the 2023 general elections.
The Tide source reports that NED, a private, non-profit foundation dedicated to the growth and strengthening of democratic institutions around the world, was established in 1983 by the American Congress for the promotion of world democracy.
Wilson said, “Nigeria is the fifth largest democracy in the world; it is on track that by 2050 to be the second largest democracy in the world, even bigger than the United States. But it has got a consequential election coming up in less than 40 days, building on seven elections since the transition.
“And we have seen in this time a Nigerian democracy that has ousted incumbents, where term limits have been enforced, peaceful transitions have taken place and now we have seen a country that is poised to have a more technically effective election that has bolstered the authority, the Independent National Electoral Commission, that is tapping technologies to help ensure greater credibility to vote at a time around the world, where things are kind of tough for democracy and elections in a lot of places are heading to roadblocks. Nigeria is offering an example of a world of progress and momentum.
“There is a lot of energy, a lot of enthusiasm and we are looking to understand that to learn from that and to see how we can help support that.”
He also pointed out that his organisation was not coming to predict who would win the elections or whether there would be a run-off.
Wilson, however, expressed concern over low voter turnouts during elections in Nigeria.
He added that Nigeria’s democracy was really evolving dramatically as the current presidential candidates have made it difficult for Nigerians to know who would win the election.
Wilson said, “It is not really my place to determine or predict the outcome of this election. I am a really interested observer and what I do see is that I watch relatively low voter turnout and your last election.
“And just by the conversations we are having, we do see a heightened level of engagement, heightened level interest, the fact that we’re less than 40 days out, and most Nigerians don’t know who’s going to win and they don’t know whether there’ll be a runoff.
“We have seen a surge of young voters being registered, I think in the last six months, INEC said they had seen in the last period, it was 70 per cent of those being registered were under the youth category. It’s pretty dramatic, remarkable.
“So what I have learned over and over again is even when democracies and elections are imperfect, elections become an opportunity for people to organize and express themselves. I have seen over and over again surprises and so I don’t know what is going to happen.
“That is kind of a beautiful thing for Nigeria, the largest democracy in Africa, to be going into an election, and you don’t know what’s going to happen. That is democracy in action. It is exciting and we are going to watch this.”
Wilson also expressed concerns over the protracted insecurity situation across the country ahead of the elections.
He said, “I guess there are two things happening; one is the overall security situation which has been difficult in the country, whether it is insurgency or terrorism or just banditry, kidnapping, other sources of instability that you know very well.
“But the truth is about 10,000 Nigerians who have died over the past years from security incidents, that is extraordinarily high, and it does create a difficult environment where people will feel that they have got to have security to be able to vote?
“What I was briefed on election related violence, which is much less election related violence is serious because it is targeted towards elections that we have seen political actors who have been, in some cases killed other places intimidated, INEC offices attacked. And so what was really interesting from the briefings we saw was that Nigerians are organizing to be able to track this to document it, to report it, to take it to authorities to see if security forces are understanding where their efforts to intimidate and voter turnout four years ago, they can anticipate that today.
“So while this is a major issue, no doubt that I am hearing from Nigerians, I also see a lot of Nigerians focused on this issue of how they can actually provide a greater sense of security, how they can be better prepared, how they can anticipate where there are problems.
“And so ultimately, this is going to be an issue for this election but I am hopeful that it won’t be an issue that will be so disruptive. That said, anybody needs to feel secure to express their vote. That is a sacrosanct act in any democracy.”
Delta State Governor, Rt. Hon. Sheriff Oborevwori, has urged public office holders to maintain a clear distinction between political responsibilities and service to God, saying the pursuit of political interests should never weaken their commitment to faith and humanity.
Gov. Oborevwori made the call in Abuja, at the weekend, after receiving the Christian Icon Award from the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) during the association’s 50th anniversary celebration at the National Christian Centre.
The award was presented by CAN President, Dr Daniel Okoh, in recognition of the governor’s public service, ethical leadership and commitment to Christian values.
Speaking after the presentation, Gov. Oborevwori expressed gratitude to God for the honour, describing it as a reminder of the responsibility to serve humanity with greater dedication.
“We may be involved in politics, but we must be able to distinguish between serving God and playing politics. These are two different responsibilities, and we must never allow politics to undermine our commitment to God,” he said.
The governor explained that his commitment to serving in the church predated his emergence as Speaker of the Delta State House of Assembly. He said he had continued with his ushering duties despite advice at the time that his political position might make the practice inappropriate.
According to him, his conviction that service to God and humanity should remain a sustained responsibility has continued to guide his public life.
Gov. Oborevwori described the recognition by CAN as particularly meaningful because, in his view, the association’s awards reflect not only public service but also character, integrity and the impact of a recipient’s contributions to society.
“When an organisation such as CAN gives you an award, it means a lot because the recognition is based not merely on public service but also on integrity, character and the impact you have made,” he said.
The governor also commended efforts to bring the five blocs within the Christian community together, expressing the belief that greater unity among them would strengthen their contribution to national development.
He said a united Christian community, speaking with one voice on issues of common concern, could contribute to a more cohesive Nigeria.
Gov. Oborevwori added that service to God should be undertaken with sincerity, dedication and a sense of responsibility, rather than for personal gratification or public recognition.
CAN’s 50th anniversary celebration brought together religious leaders, political office holders and other prominent Nigerians to mark the association’s five decades of service.
Those who accompanied the governor included immediate past Delta State Governor, Senator Ifeanyi Okowa; Speaker of the Delta State House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. Emomotimi Guwor; and members of the National Assembly, Hon. Victor Nwokolo, Hon. Nicholas Mutu and Hon. Jonathan Ukodhiko.
Others were the Chief of Staff, Government House, Hon. Johnson Erijo, and the Senior Political Adviser to the Governor, Senator Emmanuel Aguariavwodo, alongside other government functionaries and political leaders.
Vice President Kashim Shettima has expressed concern over internal divisions within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), warning that disagreements among party members pose a greater threat to its electoral success in 2027 than opposition leaders Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi.
Vice President Shettima stated this at the weekend, in Abuja, during the unveiling of the campaign headquarters of Arewa for Asiwaju (A4A), a northern political coalition supporting the re-election of President Bola Tinubu.
The Vice President stressed that unity within the APC would be crucial to securing victory in the forthcoming general elections.
Vice President Shettima cautioned party stakeholders against concentrating solely on the presidential election while neglecting governorship and National Assembly contests.
According to him, undermining APC governors or other candidates could weaken the party’s chances of achieving a comprehensive victory.
“There is no point in championing the cause of the presidential election and then undermining the governor in the gubernatorial election. Honestly, it will not go down well with the system,” he warned.
He urged party leaders and supporters to rally behind President Tinubu, APC governors and National Assembly members to strengthen the party ahead of the elections.
Speaking on the political situation in the North, Vice President Shettima declared that the region had already demonstrated its support for President Tinubu’s second-term ambition.
“By now, I believe the North has spoken. We have spoken with a resounding voice and unmistakable conviction. From Adamawa to Zamfara, from Borno to Niger, we have spoken,” he stated.
The Vice President also challenged APC members to confront former Vice President Atiku Abubakar politically but respectfully.
“Go and perform. Go and defeat Baba Atiku. Defeat him respectfully,” he said.
Vice President Shettima maintained that the APC possessed the political structure and grassroots strength required to compete effectively across Nigeria’s polling units.
He disclosed that the party had 361,045 officials across ward and local government structures, compared with the country’s 176,845 polling units.
According to him, the figures demonstrate the party’s organisational capacity to mobilise voters nationwide.
The Vice President further charged political appointees to demonstrate their electoral relevance in their respective wards and local government areas, stressing that political success begins at the grassroots.
“Politics is still local,” he declared.
On the APC’s strength in northern Nigeria, Vice President Shettima claimed that 18 of the region’s 19 states were under the party’s political influence.
He also highlighted defections from the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) in Kano State as evidence of the APC’s growing political strength.
Addressing Nigeria’s economic challenges, Vice President Shettima acknowledged the hardship facing many households but defended the economic reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration.
According to him, the administration’s reforms have helped stabilise the economy and improve the country’s financial position.
He claimed that Nigeria’s foreign reserves had risen to approximately $58.9 billion, describing the development as evidence of economic recovery.
Vice President Shettima assured northern Nigerians that the region would benefit from President Tinubu’s second term, insisting that the President remained committed to its development.
“For the North, we have absolutely nothing to fear in a Tinubu second term. He has the North at heart,” he said.
A family source confirmed his death to The Tide source on Saturday, October 17, 2026, disclosing that the former Nigerian ambassador died earlier in the morning following a prolonged period of deteriorating health.
According to the source, Dr Cole had recently been discharged from the intensive care unit (ICU), but his condition continued to worsen.
“He left ICU a few days ago. He had been doing poorly in recent weeks leading to this end,” the source reportedly said.
Born on August 4, 1940, Dr Cole celebrated his 86th birthday in August, barely two months before his death.
He was a prominent figure in Nigeria’s public life, with a distinguished career spanning journalism, diplomacy, public administration and historical scholarship.
Before joining the diplomatic service, Dr Cole established himself in the Nigerian media industry, serving on the editorial board of The Guardian newspaper before becoming Managing Director of Daily Times, one of Nigeria’s most influential media organisations.
His leadership role at Daily Times placed him among the notable figures who shaped the country’s media landscape during a significant period in its development.
Dr Cole subsequently served Nigeria as ambassador to Argentina and Brazil, representing the country in international diplomatic engagements and further broadening his public service experience.
Beyond journalism and diplomacy, he was known for his contributions to discussions on governance, politics and Nigeria’s historical development. His professional engagements reflected a longstanding interest in the country’s political and institutional evolution.
His death marks the end of a career that traversed several important areas of national life, leaving a record of service in journalism, international relations and public affairs.
As of the time of filing this report, the family had yet to announce details of his funeral arrangements.