Barely seven years after the first intra-party crisis that rocked the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, which culminated in the loss of the 2015 Presidential Elections, a second one is afoot; but one name remains constant – Atiku Abubakar. In 2015, the ‘New’ PDP with a very strong northern complexion led by former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, faught against former President Jonathan’s second tenure ambition. The first shot of that fight was heard when Atiku Abubakar, seven northern governors of the PDP, lawmakers, and their supporters staged a walkout during the party’s national convention in August 2013. Then, there were a plethora of challenges within the party and the then President Jonathan’s administration, but the battle line was marked by two key issues; the high-handedness of the National Chairman, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, and the eligibility of Jonathan. Eventually, the Tukur gave way to Alhaji Ahmadu Adamu Mu’azu, former Governor of Bauchi State. But it wasn’t enough to appease Atiku’s gang.Those who were not bold enough to fight in the open, remained in the party while working at cross purposes against the party and its presidential candidate, and Jonathan was ousted. The underlining sentiment at the time was that it was the turn of the north.

In retrospect, and in comparison with the current crisis, the same forces are at work.The seed of the second PDP crisis was sown when it became apparent, early in the year that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar was angling for the party’s presidential ticket. Even though there was nothing wrong with his ambition to gun for the highest office in the land, there were ethical and moral issues surrounding his candidacy, given that the current president was from the North. He knew from the outset that he was going against the grain of political equity, fairness, and justice. He also knew that his move was equal to turning his party’s constitution on its head. Because, PDP’s constitution states clearly in Chapter 1, Section 7 (3)(c) states that “in pursuant of equity, justice, and fairness, the party shall adhere to the policy of rotation and zoning of party and elective offices, and it shall be enforced by the appropriate Executive Committees at all levels.” Evidently, Atiku’s ambition and subsequent declaration as the party’s standard bearer in the 2023 presidential election set the PDP on the road to perdition.

But Atiku Abubakar, being a veteran politician, and a serial presidential candidate (1993, 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2019) was not deterred; rather, he unleashed his political wizardry, and deftly cornered the National Chairman of the PDP. And he made his move, even when Governor Samuel Ortom’s Zoning Committee was yet to submit their report; he became the first Presidential aspirant to purchase the expression of interest form. One of Atiku’s spokesmen recently alleged that Governor Wike defeated micro-zoning in the party. He claimed that his principal had promised to step down his ambition if the party zones its presidential ticket to the South East. Nothing could be further from truth; because in August 2021, during the party’s 94th National Executive Council meeting in Abuja, Atiku categorically stated that “where the president comes from has never been the problem of Nigeria neither will it be the solution. There is no such thing as the president from Southern Nigeria or president from Northern Nigeria. There is only one president from Nigeria, by Nigeria and for Nigeria.” What he idealized in 2021, he has actualized in 2022; but the marathon has just begun.

After two disastrous 4-year tenures that crowned Nigeria as the poverty capital of the world, turned the Naira into a tissue of paper relative to its value as of May 29, 2015, polarised and transformed every part of the country into a killing field, power will change hands on May 29, 2023. However, going by the crisis in PDP, the main opposition party, chances are that APC; the incumbent party, or Labour Party might carry the day. Initially, there were only pockets of grievances within the party, howbeit, after all was said and done with the Presidential Primaries, and the selection of a running mate, it was then time for the promises made behind closed doors to be fulfilled in the open. But nothing happened. Senator Iyorchia Ayu has reneged on his promise to vacate the office of the National Chairman of the party in the event that a northerner emerged as the presidential candidate. On his part, Atiku Abubakar has either refused or is unwilling to impress on the embattled chairman to resign in order to pave the way for a national chairman of Southern extraction to emerge.

Consequently, pockets of grievances have morphed into the G5, or what is now known as the Integrity Group. The G5 led by Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State was recently referred to as Atiku Abubarker’s nemesis by the Pan Igbo cultural group, Ohaneze Ndigbo. According to Mazi Okechukwu Isiguzoro, Secretary-General of Ohaneze Ndigbo Worldwide, Atiku was a victim of nemesis; he was reaping the fruit of the seed he cultivated in 2015. He said: Nemesis has caught up with Atiku Abubakar after he treacherously hijacked some governors in 2015 to provide the opposition for the re-election of former President Goodluck Jonathan and succeeded in forming alliances with then ACN, led by Bola Tinubu, CPC led by Muhammadu Buhari, ANPP led by Ogbonnaya Onu, a faction of APGA led by Rochas Okorocha and the then New PDP, which he led.

He was able to lead former Governor Chibuike Amaechi of Rivers, former Governor Rabiu Kwankwanso of Kano, former Governor Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto, former Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara, and former Governor Murtala Nyako of Adamawa against their own party, the PDP.”
“Now nature has finally come up against him and he is reaping the reward; let him stop wasting his time and resources. Whatever Atiku had sowed in 2015; he is now reaping in 2023. He and the same gang members that destroyed Jonathan’s chances in 2015 have also undermined the PDP zoning formula that favours the Southeast.” It is clear that major interest groups and the voting public are fully aware of the ongoing crisis within the PDP.

And, while others are assiduously working to find common ground, some other groups have deemed the actions of G5 praiseworthy. And, from what could be deduced from the campaign so far, the wind seems to be in the sail of the APC in spite of their sacrilegious Muslim – Muslim ticket. Like the ongoing Ukrainian war, where the strongman of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, in spite of great losses and national humiliation has continued to send minimally trained and ill-equipped recruits to the slaughter, Atiku Abubakar, and Senator Ayu have also refused to shift ground.

They have advanced various theories to the effect that the removal of the party’s national chairman would create constitutional issues that could mar the party’s chances at the polls come February 2023. But this is an issue of integrity, whereby, a man’s word should be his bond. On the other hand, Governor Wike, and the other governors that make up the five are Samuel Ortom of Benue, Seyi Makinde of Oyo, Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia, and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu. have made it clear that he was not backing down so long as Senator Iyorchia Ayu remains the national chairman of the PDP. He has also said on several occasions that the PDP cannot win the presidential election next year without him, a sentiment that was shared by the New Nigeria Peoples Party’s presidential flag bearer, Rabiu Kwankwaso, during the commissioning of a project in Rivers State. According to him, there is no part to electoral victory in a presidential election without Kano State, Lagos, and Rivers.

Somehow, the mathematical impossibility of winning the 2023 Presidential Election without any two aforementioned key states is lost on the planners in the PDP war room. At least, going by the utterances of Senator Ayu, there is an assurance that the PDP can do without Governor Wike, or Rivers voters. Maybe, the embattled chairman is counting on the general sentiment of the North to perpetually retain power; and the hope that aggrieved Northern Christian APC members, led by former Speaker Yakubu Dogara might pitch their tent with the Former Vice President. How this would pan out is any ones guess at the moment. For the untrained eye, everything is in flux, but great mathematicians ply their trade in unrolling patterns in seemingly chaotic situations. Unfortunately, I am no great mathematician, but a keen observer of the goings on in our polity. And what I see is that the PDP’s second crisis might end up in favour of ordinary Nigerians.

By: Raphael Pepple