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Russian Oil Continues To Flow To India, China

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It has been exactly six weeks since Russia invaded Ukraine, with no end in sight to one of humanity’s biggest existential crises in modern times. In response to Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified war, the United States and the West have hit the rogue nation with a plethora of sanctions, with the latest announced just days ago mostly targeting Russia’s financial sector.
So far, Russia’s pivotal energy sector has largely been spared. With the exception of Lithuania and Poland as well as self-sanctioning by refiners and bankers, no country has yet to announce a ban on Russia’s energy products.
Also, Russian oil and gas exports to the EU remain largely unchanged since only the Baltic States have announced a 100% ban on Russian energy imports. Poland, a major thoroughfare for Russian energy supplies, has also been more proactive than most after it took steps to block Russian coal imports and announced steps to halt Russian oil imports by year-end.
Poland, home to the 1.3mb/d Druzhba pipeline that carries Russian crude to several points in Poland, Germany, and the Czech Republic, directly consumes ~330kb/d of Russian crude and imports 9.4mt of Russian thermal coal in 2020, accounting for ~5% of Russian exports.
The EU currently gets about 40% of its natural gas from Russia, which powers everything from household heating to factory production, and makes up around 25% of the bloc’s total energy consumption.
But that could soon change.
The flow of “bloody money” to Russia must stop, Kyiv’s mayor has said as the West prepares new sanctions on Moscow after dead civilians were found lining the streets of a Ukrainian town seized from Russian invaders.
Since Russian forces withdrew from northern Ukraine, turning their assault on the south and east, grim images from the town of Bucha near Kyiv, including a mass grave and bound bodies of people shot at close range, have prompted international outrage.
Experts are now saying that the atrocities against Ukrainian civilians revealed by the withdrawal of Russian forces from areas north and east of Kyiv have made it very likely that EU countries will impose sanctions on Russian oil in the coming months. In the United States, Treasury secretary Janet Yellen has warned of “enormous economic repercussions” from the Ukraine war.
The million-dollar question right now is how disruptive a total ban on Russian energy commodities will be on Russia’s economy.
Unfortunately, a ban on Russian oil and gas by the U.S. and the EU might not be as damaging to Russia as the west hopes, with the presence of heavily discounted Urals proving too irresistible for some.
India’s Surging Imports From Russia
India has never been a big buyer of Russian crude despite needing to import 80% of its needs. In a typical year, India imports just 2-5% of its crude from Russia, roughly the same proportion as the United States did before it announced a 100% ban on Russian energy commodities. Indeed, India imported only 12 million barrels of Russian crude in 2021, with the majority of its oil coming from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Nigeria.
But reports have now emerged of a “significant uptick” in Russian oil deliveries bound for India.
Matt Smith, the lead oil analyst at Kpler, has told CNBC that since the beginning of March, five cargoes of Russian oil, or about 6 million barrels, have been loaded and are bound for India. In other words, India has imported half as much crude from Russia in one month as it did in an entire year.
And, it could be all about the money.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Urals crude from Russia is being offered at record discounts. Ellen Wald, President of Transversal Consulting, has told CNBC that a couple of commodity trading firms, such as Glencore and Vitol, were offering discounts of $30 and $25 per barrel, respectively, two weeks ago for the Urals blend. Urals is the main blend exported by Russia.
The experts say simple economics is the reason White House pressure to curb purchases of crude oil from Russia have fallen on deaf ears in Delhi.
“Today, the Government of India’s motivations are economic, not political. India will always look for a deal in their oil import strategy. It’s hard not to take a 20% discount on crude when you import 80-85% of your oil, particularly on the heels of the pandemic and global growth slowdown,” Samir N. Kapadia, Head of Trade at Government Relations Consulting firm, Vogel Group, has told CNBC via email.
Still, it will not be lost on many readers that India has maintained a cozy relationship with Russia over the years, with Russia supplying the Asian nation with as much as 60% of its military and defense-related equipment. Russia has also been a key ally on crucial issues such as India’s dispute with China and Pakistan surrounding the territory of Kashmir.
China To The Rescue?
But India might not be the lone pariah helping finance Putin’s illegal war.
Given China’s experience with evading sanctions, you would expect it to be among the first countries lining up to lap up those cheap barrels of Urals. After all, it’s a badly kept secret that Beijing has been using all sorts of clandestine means aka ‘cloaking’ to import cheap Iranian oil ever since it was sanctioned in 2011. China is already Russia’s biggest oil customer, importing an average of 1.72 mb/d in 2021.
However, Reuters has reported that China’s crude imports from Russia in the first two months of the year actually declined 9.1% to 1.57 mb/d.
But this has got little to do with China suddenly acting sanctimonious or moral compunction. Rather, the notable decline has been caused by Beijing’s crackdown on smaller independent refiners aka the teapots.
In a dramatic reversal of fortunes, back in June, Beijing announced huge cutbacks in import quotas for the country’s private oil refiners. According to Reuters, China’s independent refiners were awarded a combined 35.24 million tons in crude oil import quotas in the second batch of quotas this year, a 35% reduction from 53.88 million tons for a similar tranche a year ago.
The big reduction came as part of agovernment crackdown on private Chinese refiners known as teapots, which have become increasingly dominant over the past five years. The move is intended to allow Beijing to more precisely regulate the flow of foreign oil as it doubles down on malpractices such as tax evasion, fuel smuggling, and violations of environmental and emissions rules by independent refiners.
China’s teapots have been steadily grabbing market share from entrenched state players such as China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation(NYSE:SNP), also known as Sinopec, andPetroChina Co. (NYSE:PTR) ever since Beijing partially liberalized its oil industry in 2015. Teapots currently control nearly 30% of China’s crude refining volumes, up from ~10% in 2013.

By: Alex Kimani

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FG Flaggs Of Renewed Hope Employment  Initiative 

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As part of its programme to empower Young Nigerians with the necessary employability skills, the Federal Government, through the National Directorate of Employment (NDE), has flagged off the second phase of the “Renewed Hope Employment Initiative” (RHEI).
Performing the ceremony in Port Harcourt, the Director General of NDE, Silas Ali Agara, said the second phase of the programme will absorbed over 41,307 youths across the country.
Agara said the first phase of the programme, which was flagged off December 2024, successfully trained 32,692 unskilled and unemployed Nigerians in demand-driven skills across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
According to the DG, who was represented by the Rivers State Coordinator of the Programme, Matthew Amala, “The strategic goals were increasing trainee employability, supporting small scale enterprises, promoting agricultural productivity, improving rural infrastructure and providing transient jobs.”
He said, over 5000 beneficiaries were resettled with loans and starter packs, while linkages to credit institutions for those that could not be accommodated under the Directorate’s soft loan scheme was ongoing.
“As we reflect on the achievements of the first phase of the Renewed Hope Employment Initiative, I’m excited that the second phase is being flagged off today.
“In the second phase, NDE will train 41,307 persons in over 30 skills set, ranging from vocational, entrepreneurial, agricultural, ICT, and activities in the public works sector.
“We have improved and digitalized our processes through a robust registration portal fully equipped with scalable backends and geofenced capabilities.
“This has made our processes more transparent, fair, equitable, as well as providing us with a credible database”, he said.
The DG said at the end of the training, a total of 14,457 will be resettled with starter packs to help them establish themselves in their chosen fields.
“It’s our sincere expectation that the participants would be equipped positively with skills to enhance their employability, foster entrepreneurship mindsets in them and improving livelihoods to contribute to their community and the economic growth of the Nation”, he added.
He said despite the challenges of limited budgetary resources, the NDE remains committed to equipping unemployed Nigerians with demand driven skills in order to empower these individuals to become employers of labour and future wealth creators.
John Bibor & Edidiong Johnson
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Kachikwu Makes Case For Increased NCI Fund To US$1bn … Timeline For Developing Oil Blocks

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Former Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Prof. Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, has canvassed that the $450m Nigerian Content Intervention Fund (NCI Fund) be increased to US$1bn.
He said the increase will be deployed to cater for the funding of mega oil and gas projects, setting up of pipe mills and manufacturing of other critical equipment needed in the oil and gas sector.
Kachikwu also recommended that oil and gas producing companies should provide timelines for developing oil and gas blocks, saying same condition should also be for firms that win industry contracts based on commitments of investments.
He made these recommendations on Monday at the Business Mentorship Lecture Series organised virtually by the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB).
The Tide gathered that the webinar drew nearly 500 participants via Zoom and the Board’s YouTube page.
The former minister, who served as the Chairman of NCDMB’s Governing Council from September 2016 to May 2019, stated that a larger NCI Fund will provide seed capital for developing blocks, accessing technology, skill sets and equipment.
According to him, the  fund should include contributions from operators, and other investors in the sector and not just government resources, expressing dismay that many awardees of oil blocks in Nigeria treat them like certificates of occupancy for land which has caused huge losses to the nation.
“I like to advise the Government to cancel oil blocks that are not developed after a prolonged period. We need to find a way to force performance in the industry. Some companies get contracts to import pipelines with proviso to invest locally. We need to begin to produce those equipment.
“You’ve to show the joint venture that you are setting up to produce pipes, where is the foreign partner with the funds and technology?  You need to give a timeline”, he said.
Speaking on the global investments space and how Nigeria can attract funding to the energy sector, the former minister argued that there was a lot of money waiting to be tapped, saying that however it is only going to countries where there is a perception of regularity.
“Nigeria’s image needs to improve, while the Government also needs to create the right investment climate to attract investment. There’s enough investment money out there if you have a holding of hands.
“They need to portray Nigeria as the place you can put money and get good returns. Government should consider co-investing with private companies if there are good prospect of returns”, he added.
The erstwhile Petroleum Minister lauded the transformation in the oil and gas sector with indigenous firms like Seplat, Aiteo, Oando Energy Resources, and Heirs Oil and Gas and others acquiring assets from divesting international oil companies (IOCs).
“Mere ownership transfers are insufficient without enhanced output, management, revenue returns and compliance with extant laws.
“My greatest fear is that without principled accounting, supervision, and effective oversight, indigenous companies may profit while the federal government loses revenue. There’s the need to involve local communities to avoid past disconnects that fueled conflicts”, Kachikwu said.
He also commended the Executive Secretary of NCDMB, Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe, for upholding the agency’s mission and recording significant strides since assumption of office.
Reflecting on the NCDMB  Scribe’s pivotal role in shaping the Board, Kachikwu emphasized that advancing local content was a core pillar of his tenure as Minister and chairman of the NCDMB Board, noting that local content is not just a slogan, but rather a tool for industrialisation, job creation, and knowledge transfer.
“There should be consistency of policies. For too long, foreign companies dominated every segment of the sector, while our people remained bystanders.
“My message to young professionals is clear: the oil industry may be facing disruption, but it is also full of opportunities. Careers in petroleum now demand more than technical skills. They require adaptability, creativity, and a deep sense of responsibility to both people and the environment.
“The industry is not just about barrels and dollars. it’s about national survival, community welfare, and the environment. Achieving your career goals is a marathon, not a sprint. Patience and endurance are essential. Self-Belief is Crucial.
“Confidence in yourself and your abilities will fuel your progress and help you overcome challenges. Principles matter: Let your ethics and integrity be a guiding light. Build relevant skill sets. Equip yourself with the skills that make you competitive and adaptable in the job market”, the former Minister urged.
Earlier in his welcome address, the Executive Secretary of the NCDMB’s Director of Capacity Building, represented by the Director of Capacity Building, Engr. Abayomi Bamidele, underscored the Business Mentorship Lecture Series’ role in fostering trends and mind-sets for excellence.
Hee said the lecture series was organised in furtherance of the Board’s mandate in sections 67 and 70n of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development (NOGICD) Act of 2010, to hold workshops and seminars to promote and advance Nigerian Content.
In his closing remarks, General Manager, Corporate Communications, NCDMB, Dr. Obinna Ezeobi, praised Kachikwu for sharing deep insights which benefitted stakeholders across the public and private sector of the energy sector.
He also thanked the guest lecture for his contributions to the NCDMB, recalling his sign-off on the Waltersmith Refinery investment, which became a successful project and the launch of the US$200m NCI Fund, which has grown into US$450m, now managed by the Bank of Industry and Nexim Bank.
“NCDMB has fully embraced its roles of enabling businesses, in addition to the traditional mandate of regulating and promoting local content. The Board is committed to supporting Nigerians and local oil and gas firms to grow sustainably in the sector, hence it organises the Business Mentorship Lecture Series.
“We want to assure you that this Mentorship series will continue as a key platform for engaging and educating stakeholders of the industry. I also want to urge interested listeners to visit NCDMB’s YouTube channel to watch the recording of the webinar”, he said.
Ariwera Ibibo-Howells, Yenagoa
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FG Embarks On Sanitizing Mining Industry 

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The Federal Government has embarked on sanitizing the mining industry, as concrete steps are being taken through the Mining Cadastre’s office to put things in order.
Already, some of the mining licences have been revoked, and more mining licences will be revoked, as part of ongoing efforts to sanitise the solid minerals sector, as well as to protect investors from fraudsters.
Director-General (DG) of the Mining Cadastre Office, Obadiah Nkom, who disclosed this on a live conversation on X (formerly Twitter), said the move was aimed at driving transparency and order in Nigeria’s solid minerals sector.
According to the DG of the Federal Government agency, the clean-up exercise, which covers expired, speculative, and inactive titles, is necessary to make room for genuine investors and ensure compliance with the law.
Nkom disclosed that the agency had identified about 4,709 licences, including 1,400 expired titles, 2,338 refused applications, and 971 notifications of grant where applicants failed to pay, which led  to an outright revocation by the Minister of Solid Minerals Development, Dele Alake.
The DG stressed that the revocation was not punitive but part of a deliberate sanitisation process to weed out speculators who hoard licences without adding value to the economy.
Nkom explained that the exercise had already boosted investor confidence in the sector.
“When you talk about backlog, for now, the ministry has had reasons to clear or revoke close to 4,709 mineral licenses. There were implementations in terms of revoked expiring titles of up to 1,400 licenses.
“We have had reasons to refuse  2,338 applications in the system. We have had a mineral title notification of 971. Can you imagine 971 notifications of grants that were notified, but did not come to pay.
“There are even instances where some people have collected the grants, but they refuse to pay. So what do we do? So this cleaning exercise that we are doing is to be able to now create that space in the minefield for people.
“So, imagine having over 4,709 erased from our system by way of revocations implemented. It has sanitised our sector, and investors now know that if they are not going to be involved in exploration and value addition, there will be consequences.
“We are cautious. We follow the law. And this is why I repeat, we have had 100 per cent success in litigations because we are an agency compliant with the provisions of the Act.
“Where we are wrong, we do not shy away from trapping ourselves and doing the right thing. I would hope that at the end of the day, we will not have any risk by following the provisions of the Act”, he said.
Recall that the minister in 2024 revoked 924 licenses over failure to pay statutory charges and fees due for the Federal Government through the Mining Cadastral Office.
He warned licensees yet to resume work on their mining projects to do so immediately.
Corlins Walter
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