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Surviving Economic Realities In 2020s

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Heraclitus of Ephesus, a Greek philosopher of the late 6th Century, in his famous apothegm said, “The only constant is Change”. Literally, whether change is desired or not is inconsequential as it occurs independently; devoid of assents or prior notice. And the earlier people prepared their mind for it, the better as it is inevitable. This is thus, a clarion demand for reprogramming the minds to adapt as it occurs. Not even resistance deters it except to be left behind; an unhealthy option.
Typically, the major and fastest agent of change is civilization which everyone profoundly cherishes. Nobody in their right senses will kick against civilization due to the comfort, speed and productivity it offers. However, the bad side of it is, the same pace it opens new opportunities to the sensitive minds, is also how it pushes out the indolent and conservative minds out of jobs and businesses.
For example, the evolution of modern computers; Central Processing Units (CPUs) and laptops sent conservative typists and typewriter-merchants that were insensitive to upgrade out of jobs and businesses. Similarly, online shopping has become the most utilised medium across the world thereby affecting daily sales of shop owners. Arguably, technological advancement is moving fast.
Presently, foodstuffs including fresh tomatoes, potatoes, vegetables and even native cooked foods are ordered online and delivered with ease in Nigeria. Likewise, the usual taxi business which required people to board on the road is being overtaken by connected system which can access, negotiate variety of taxis in the comfort of the living rooms.
Churches are not left out as people in the comfort of their homes now actively participate in church services same way as onsite worshippers. In banking industry, higher volume of transactions are currently done virtual which reduces human activities in the banking halls alongside overhead costs. Of course, by design, banks are profit-oriented and not charity organizations, hence, will always switch over to most cost-effective system.
Conversely, the labour market is adversely affected as technology drops human activities thereby increasing unemployment ratios. Even those already in employment are likely to face more retrenchments as their services can be rendered cheaper and more efficiently through technological revolution.
For emphasis, on September 3, 2019, an energy firm, Oando Plc, sacked about 100 workers. Similarly, on November 21, 2019, First Bank of Nigeria recorded a mass sack of staff numbering over 1000 across the federation. The record goes on. The umbrella body of the workers; National Union of Banks, Insurance and Financial Institutions Employees (NUBIFIE) threatened fire and brimstone to reverse the action.
Though the solidarity was commendable, unfortunately, NUBIFIE forgot the employers’ obligation to discharge employees is to be laid off accordingly. The union overlooked to do a feasibility study vis-à-vis the management’s unflinching action, without any panic against possible collapse of the bank by the volume of the retrenchment. This is a critical oversight.
For instance, Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) can now withdraw and also collect deposits into customers account in few seconds. The implication is that scores of contract staff that mount the tellers may be drastically reduced to virtually zero. Believably, all banks are working in that directions which implies that more retrenchments are looming particularly in the banking sector in the new decade.
Realistically, NUBIFIE and other unions may not do much to counter the trend. This is because they cannot provide the funds to subsidize overhead costs; to secure their members’ jobs. Convincingly, the bank discovered an alternative mode to handle operations without such a crowd of employees. To call a spade, a spade, the sacks were no accidental discharge but necessitated by profit maximization which is its major goal.
Laudably, a leading financial institution, United Bank for Africa (UBA), recently recorded a massive recruitment drive of about 4000 new staff alongside promotion of 5000 existing staff members with inspiring increments. However, the truth must be told. Industrialized economy is rapidly succumbing to digitalized economy.
The top-secret is technological innovation that economically, efficiently handles human tasks. In other words, repositioning is crucial. A stitch in time they say, saves nine. Sensibly, those not considering modern economy are vulnerable to be victims of the contemporary economic dynamics. Another bitter truth is that government alone cannot provide the much needed jobs for the high number of unemployed population.
However, governments must obligatorily provide the enabling environments for businesses to thrive. Economy must be stimulated and made attractive for investors. And essentially, insecurity must be unrelentingly wrestled not merely by empowering security agents but creating jobs for unemployed populations alongside empowerment with skills acquisitions. Government must meet these critical demands.
Interestingly, the most striking feature of the new economic direction is that it can empower distressed persons from zero level to financial independence without capital unlike the phasing-out industrialized economy. Above all, it creates secure incomes alongside conventional vocations. Instructively, most of the capitalists in the developed economies do not survive by commonplace hustling but connected economy.
Thus, whilst it is ideal to have exciting new year resolutions, big dreams and accept nice predictions, efforts must be put in top gear to think outside the box. People should expediently, ardently consider realignment. By the rapidity of technological advancement in the world, it is obvious a lot of employments may be in danger.
The way out is to embrace the modern economy to run with the changes against the challenges. Connected economy, distinctively, thrives by merely building relationships and fostering connections, rather than assets (money) and stuffs as exists in industrialized economy. However, extreme caution is required as scammers have infiltrated digitalized economy knowing it is the new face of the world economy.
Umegboro is a public affairs analyst.

 

Carl Umegboro

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Oil & Energy

No Subsidy In Oil, Gas Sector — NMDPRA

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The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has said there are no subsidies in the oil and gas sector as Nigeria operates a completely deregulated market.
The Director, Public Affairs Department, NMDPRA, George Ene-Italy, made this known in an interview with newsmen, in Abuja, at the Weekend.
Reacting to the recent reports that the Federal Government has removed subsidies or increased the price of Compressed Natural Gas (CBG), Ene-Italy said, “What we have is a baseline price for our gas resources, including CNG as dictated by the Petroleum Industry Act”.
He insisted that as long as the prevailing CNG market price conforms to the baseline, then the pricing is legitimate.
 Furthermore, the Presidential –  Compressed Natural Gas Initiative (P-CNGI) had said that no directive or policy had been issued by the Federal Government to alter CNG pump prices.
The P-CNGI boss, Michael Oluwagbemi, emphasised that the recent pump price adjustments announced by certain operators were purely private-sector decisions and not the outcome of any government directive or policy.
For absolute clarity, it said that while pricing matters fell under the purview of the appropriate regulatory agencies, no directive or policy had been issued by the Federal Government to alter CNG pump prices.
The P-CNGI said its mandate, as directed by President Bola Tinubu, was to catalyse the development of the CNG mobility market and ensure the adoption of a cheaper, cleaner, and more sustainable alternative fuel and diesel nationwide.
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‘Nigeria’s GDP’ll Hit $357bn, If Power Supply Gets To 8,000MW’

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The Managing Director, Financial Derivatives Company Limited (FDC),  Bismarck Rewane, has said that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could rise to $357b  if electricity supply would increase from the present 4.500MW to 8,000MW.
Rewane also noted that Nigeria has spent not less than $30 billion in the power sector in 26 years only to increase the country’s power generation by mere 500MW, from 4,500 MW in 1999 to 5,000MW in 2025 though the sector has installed capacity to generate 13,000 MW.
In his presentation at the Lagos Business School (LBS) Executive Breakfast Session, titled “Nigeria Bailout or Lights Out: The Power Sector in a Free Fall”, Rewane insisted that the way out for the power sector that has N4.3 trillion indebtedness to banks would be either a bailout or lights out for Nigeria with its attendant consequences.
He said, “According to the World Bank, a 1.0 per cent increase in electricity consumption is associated with a 0.5 to 0.6 per cent rise in GDP.
“If power supply rises to 8000MW, from current 4500MW, the bailout shifts money from government into investment, raising consumption and productivity. And, due to multiplier effects, GDP could rise to $357 billion.”
The FDC’s Chief Executive said “in the last 30 years, Nigeria has invested not less than $30 billon to solve an intractable power supply problem.
“The initiatives, which started in 1999 when the power generated from the grid was as low as 4,500MW, have proved to be a failure at best.
“Twenty-six years later, and after five presidential administrations, the country is still generating 5,000MW. Nigeria is ranked as being in the lowest percentile of electricity per capita in the world.
“The way out is a bailout, or it is lights out for Nigeria”, he warned.
He traced the origin of the huge debts of the power sector to its privatisation under President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration, when many of the investors thought they had hit a jackpot, only to find out to their consternation that they had bought a poisoned chalice.
Rewane, who defined a bailout as “injection of money into a business or institution that would otherwise face an imminent collapse”, noted that the bailout may be injected as loans, subsidies, guarantees or equity for the purpose of stabilising markets, protect jobs and restore confidence.
He said, “The President has promised to consider a financial bailout for the Gencos and Discos. With a total indebtedness of N4.3 trillion to the banking system, the debt has shackled growth in the sector.”
Rewane warned that without implementing the bailouts for the power sector, the GENCOs and DISCOs would shut down at the risk of nationwide blackout.
Rewane, however, noted that implementing a bailout for the power sector could have a positive effect on the country’s economy if Nigeria’s actual power generation could rise from today’s 4,500 MW to around 8,000 and 10,000 MW.
The immediate gains, according to him, would include improved power generation and distribution capacity, more reliable electricity supply to homes and businesses as well as cost reflective tariffs.
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NEITI Blames Oil, Gas Sector Theft On Mass Layoff 

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The Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) has blamed the increasing crude oil theft across the nation on the persistent layoff of skilled workers in the oil and gas sector.
The Executive Secretary, NEITI, Orji Ogbonnaya Orji, stated this during an interview with newsmen in Abuja.
Orji said from investigations, many of the retrenched workers, who possess rare technical skills in pipeline management and welding, often turn to illicit networks that steal crude from pipelines and offshore facilities.
In his words, “You can’t steal oil without skill. The pipelines are sometimes deep underwater. Nigerians trained in welding and pipeline management get laid off, and when they are jobless, they become available to those who want to steal crude”.
He explained that oil theft requires extraordinary expertise and is not the work of “ordinary people in the creeks”, stressing that most of those involved were once trained by the same industry they now undermine.
According to him, many retrenched workers have formed consortia and offer their services to oil thieves, further complicating efforts to secure production facilities.
“This is why we told the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) to take this seriously. The laying off of skilled labour in oil and gas must stop”, he added.
While noting that oil theft has reduced in recent times due to tighter security coordination, Orji warned, however, that the failure to address its root causes, including unemployment among technically trained oil workers would continue to expose the country to losses.
According to him, between 2021 and 2023, Nigeria lost 687.65 million barrels of crude to theft, according to NEITI’s latest report. Orji said though theft dropped by 73 per cent in 2023, with 7.6 million barrels stolen compared to 36.6 million barrels in 2022, the figure still translates to billions of dollars in lost revenues.
Orji emphasised that beyond revenue, crude oil theft also undermines national security, as proceeds are used to finance terrorism and money laundering.
“It’s more expensive to keep losing crude than to build the kind of monitoring infrastructure Saudi Arabia has. Nigeria has what it takes to do the same”, he stated.
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