Politics
2015 Presidency: The Odds
As the February 14
Presidential election draws nearer by the day, and parties put finishing touches to their strategies to either retain or gain power, permutations as to which party waxes more or gains more ground are rife. As events unfold, there is little doubt that the race will be between the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) and the leading opposition party, All Progressives Congress (APC).
Following the emergence of incumbent president, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ) and former Head-of-State, General Mohammadu Buhar (GMB), as the candidates of the PDP and APC respectively, the battle for Nigeria’s presidency has begun in earnest.
As expected, both presidential candidates have as much chances of emerging victorious as their followers chose to portray or make keen observers believe. One certainty, however, is that at the end of the day, only one aspirant will emerge. So, what are the odds against, or in favour of the two presidential gladiators.?
For GEJ, there is no doubt that the catch phrase, “A breath of fresh air” that was the crux of his pre-2011 campaign that saw him coast to victory in the 2011 election seem to have fizzled out. So have all the goodwills and promises of a better Nigeria.
Pundits have expressed the belief that the disillusionment trailing the GEJ presidency garnered so much momentum because it basically originated from what is largely seen as within the inner chambers of the PDP, the very heart of the party caucus.
Key areas in which GEJ has been identified to have given a lackluster attention and hence deemed to have failed could be summerised into corruption and insecurity, and a major advocate in this wise is former president, Olusegun Obasanjo.
Being a key figure in PDP, whatever the former president says cannot be dismissed as mere frivolity. Comparatively, there is the belief that no matter what can be said about former President Obasanjo, he at least made some efforts against corrupt officials when he was in charge, even if such efforts were often viewed as sectional and tokenistic.
In his recent autobiography titled “My Watch”, Obasanjo said of corruption in GEJ’s first tenure; “under Jonathan we seem to have gone from frying pan to fire. If in the past corruption was in the corridors of power, it would seem now to be in the sitting room, dinning room and bedroom of power”.
The former president further drove his point when he alleged that incremenating corruption-related documents against a former governor was ordered to be removed from a file because the culprit was close to GEJ.
As a result of his perceived inability to address issues of corruption, therefore, many Nigerians, as amplified by the opposition, do not see GEJ as ready to fight corruption, which no doubt, has over the years proven to be the bane of Nigeria’s woes, both within and outside the shores of Nigeria.
The same reason is given for GEJ’s inability to secure lives and properties in his domain, as exemplified by the increasing and more deadly activities of the terrorist sect, Boko Haram, which had sent thousands to their early grave, and has held over 200 Chibok secondary school girls hostage since April 15, 2014.
In a summarizing manner, the founder of Adoration Ministry, Enugu Rev. Fr. Ejike Mbaka, during his end-of-year mass on the eve of 2015, said GEJ had surrounded himself with very corrupt officials. As a result, the President, he said, has turned a blind eye to their corrupt activities while millions of Nigerians wallow in abject poverty and endless insecurity.
According to Mbaka, “Jonathan has ruled for six years. We need a change. NEPA (electricity) is not working because of corruption. The privatization of public companies has not yielded any fruit because of corruption.
“Jonathan surrounded himself with very corrupt officers who advise him. Nigerians are sick and tired of wasting innocent lives without government doing enough to stop the destruction.
“Up till now, nobody knows the whereabouts of the innocent Chibok girls kidnapped by Boko Haram and we say we have a government that cannot guarantee the welfare, safety and security of the citizens.
“Nigerians are calling for change. We need change. We don’t want to move from bad luck to bad luck. Nigerians want to move from bad luck to good luck”, he said.
While acknowledging the stand by the opposition in a piece titled “Can Jonathan survive this blitzkriegs?” in This Day, Simon Kolawole identified four categories of GEJ’s critics: Opposition figures and other political opponents; those who lost out in the political game; those northerners who are still bitter that Jonathan “hijacked” power after the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2010; and those who have neither partisan nor sectional sentiments against Jonathan as they are sincerely critical of certain aspects of his stewardship.
Kolawole had no qualms with opposition figures and other political opponents because they must do their bidding.
“There is no way APC would come out and praise Jonathan; that is political suicide. They want power. They want his job. Theirs is to say Jonathan or PDP has not done well and that if Nigerians give them a chance, they would do much better.
“This is a universal characteristic of opposition politics. You can argue that they do not always work with facts, but what is politicking? PDP would do the same if APC was in power”, he said.
For those who lost out in the political game, the writer observed that many politicians, who supported GEJ in 2010 and 2011, feel abandoned, “they feel like a deflated orange: squeezed, sucked and dumped. They feel Jonathan treated them to a one-night stand, whereas they wanted an affair.
“Some wanted appointments; others simply desired respect and recognition. But they are bitter that Jonathan jilted them after getting what he wanted. In no time, they became his sworn enemies”, he said.
The northerners who are embittered that GEJ hijacked their right after the death of President Yar’Adua feel so because they say when they conceded power to the South in 1999, they did it with the understanding that Obasanjo would do only one term. But he did the maximum two terms.
Consequently, PDP, as the ruling party, agreed to north/south power rotation every eight years. Unfortunately, Yar’Adua died prematurely.
“Jonathan took over and refused to let so. To some northerners, there is nothing Jonathan can do to make them happy. Even if he turns Nigeria to Dubai, their message is clear; Thank you and just get out of here”, he said.
The last category, which have neither partisan nor sectional sentiments against Jonathan are merely genuinely bothered at his handling of critical issues such as corruption and Boko Haram.
“In truth, Jonathan lost a lot of sympathizers with the Chibok School girls’ saga, which turned into the ‘Na only you waka come’ tragicomedy in the corridors of power”, Kolawole concluded.
As a word of advise, and in seeming appreciation of the political scenario, Kolawole noted: “It is not in the best interest of President Jonathan to lump all his critics together. As a leader, he has to sit down, analyse his critics and their criticisms, and work out his actions and reactions appropriately.
“He sure has millions of critics, like any other leader. People criticize with different motives. People have different agenda even when they are saying the same thing. Unfortunately, you will miss the massage when you lump everyone together and respond to every critic and criticism with cynicism and antagonism”.
As is usual with incumbency and opposition in politics, the weakness of the ruling government is what opposition latches upon to score its points, and the APC, seem to be doing a good job of it.
Against an allegedly “weak” GEJ, the APC, which is the leading opposition party, has fielded a perceived “strong” candidate in GMB, based on his track record. One key factor that constitutes a plus to GMB is his brief tenure as Military Head of State from the 1st of January 2004 to August 2005.
Alongside his second in command, late Major-General Tunde Idiagbon, GMB launched the popular War Against Indiscipline (WAI), through which they attempted to set a new road-map for the country’s politics.
They introduced strict economic and political policies that have been widely described as “Buharism”. It saw him refuse to adopt the IMF conditionality to devalue the naira. While his critics blamed him then for the resultant job losses, closure of some businesses, and decline in living standards, his admirers commended him for adopting unique economic measures that enabled his government to reduce inflation, curb import of needless goods and curtail crude oil theft.
Given his history as a leader with a strong character, GMB is also described as incorruptible and hence seem as the messiah that Nigeria needs to combat the ailing corruption-infested Nigerian economy.
Ironically, GMB’s critics also consider his strong personality as a minus, saying that he would not be a listening president like GEJ. But his followers have expressed strong feelings that the former Army General’s popularity is increasing by the day, and before February 14 where the pendulum for the presidency will swing to will be too glaring not to see in favour of the APC candidate.
Moreso, as is popularly said,There is little doubt that Nigerians want to change, one that would loosen the stranglehold of corruption in the nation’s polity. What is, however, in contention is who represents that change so yearned for. Is it a repented GEJ, or a brand new GMB?
Soibi Max-Alalibo
Prof. Attahiru Jega, INEC Chairman
President Bola Tinubu, yesterday in Abuja, swore in the sixth substantive chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Joash Ojo Amupitan (SAN).
At the ceremony held at the State House Council Chamber, President Tinubu urged the new INEC Chairman to serve with integrity and beyond reproach.
“Your nomination and the subsequent confirmation by the Senate are a testament to your capacity and the confidence reposed in you by both the executive and the legislative arms of government.
“This significant achievement marks the beginning of a challenging, yet rewarding journey, and I trust that you will approach your responsibility with the highest level of integrity, dedication and patriotism,” the President said.
President Tinubu noted that the country had been on a path of democratic governance and learning since 1999, with notable achievements in the strengthening of various institutions.
“Our democracy has come a long way in 25 years. We have consolidated and strengthened our democratic institutions, particularly in electoral systems, through innovations and reforms.
“We have learned a great deal along the way and have improved significantly from where we were many years ago. We must now remain committed to the principles that underpin democracy in a complex and multifaceted society.
“The electoral process is a vital part of a democracy that grants the people the exclusive right to choose their leaders and shape their future. To ensure that our democracy continues to flourish, the integrity of our electoral process must be beyond reproach,” he added.
President Tinubu stated that the governorship election on November 8, 2025, in Anambra State will serve as a litmus test for the new leadership of the electoral commission.
“It is important that our elections are free, fair and credible. We must consistently improve our electoral process, addressing the challenges of yesterday and innovating for today and tomorrow.
“To maintain public trust in the election, electoral integrity must be protected. All aspects of the process – from registration to campaigning, the media access, voting and counting should be transparent, non–violent and credible.
“No electoral system is flawless, but since elections are vital to a nation’s future, it is essential to continually strengthen electoral institutions, ensuring that they are robust, resilient and safeguarded against artificial setback.
“I therefore charge you, Prof Amupitan, as you take on this important assignment to protect the integrity of our electoral process and strengthen the institutional capacity of INEC.
The swearing-in ceremony follows the Senate’s confirmation of the INEC Chairman’s nomination on October 16.
Amupitan succeeds Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, whose tenure as INEC Chairman ran from 2015 to 2025.
The 58-year-old academic outlined his plans to reform Nigeria’s electoral system, strengthen institutional independence, and rebuild public trust in the commission at the screening.
The new INEC Chairman will assume office immediately.
The House of Representatives yesterday urged the Federal Government, through the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development, to take urgent and decisive measures to curb the growing trend of arbitrary rent increases across the country.
The House, which described incessant rent increment as exploitative and detrimental to citizens’ welfare, took the resolution following the adoption of a motion on notice at Thursday’s plenary, sponsored by the member representing Calabar Municipal/Odukpani Federal Constituency, Cross River State, Bassey Akiba.
Recall that in May 2024, the House passed a similar resolution sponsored by Emmanuel Udo (PDP, Akwa Ibom), calling for rent control and landlords’ regulation within the Federal Capital Territory.
Udo’s motion advocated monthly rent payments and directed the House Committee on the FCT to propose measures to address excessive, reckless increments in rent by landlords.
Across the country, there are reports of a hike in rents, particularly in areas witnessing new government infrastructural projects such as roads and markets.
In the FCT, rents in some neighbourhoods have jumped from ?800,000 to ?2.5 million annually, for a two-bedroom flat; a development that has plunged many Nigerians into economic distress.
Akiba, while drumming support for the bill, argued that “The rise in the cost of living has made it increasingly difficult for families and businesses to meet rental obligations,” warning that “Unregulated rent increments threaten stability in the housing sector.”
While acknowledging landlords’ rights, he noted that tenants’ welfare must be equally protected to ensure fairness and economic balance.
Referencing Section 14(2)(b) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), the lawmaker reminded his colleagues that the welfare and security of citizens constitute the primary responsibility of government.
He also cited the United Nations Habitat Agenda, which emphasises access to adequate and affordable housing as a basic human right.
Lawmakers present at the plenary voted in support of the motion when it was put to a voice vote by the Deputy Speaker, Benjamin Kalu, who presided over the session.
Consequently, the House urged the Federal Government to “Intensify efforts toward providing affordable housing schemes to ease pressure on the rental market and expand access to low-cost homes.”
It also directed the Federal Ministry of Housing and Urban Development to “Collaborate with state governments in implementing effective rent control policies, ensuring that public infrastructure development does not trigger unjustified rent escalations.”
The House also recommended that any rent review should not exceed 20 per cent of the existing rate, regardless of improvements in facilities.
Furthermore, the House mandated its Committee on Housing and Habitat to ensure compliance and submit a report within four weeks for further legislative action.
The newly sworn-in Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, Prof. Joash Amupitan, SAN, has vowed to restore credibility and public confidence in the country’s electoral system, declaring his appointment as a “divine” call to serve the nation.
Speaking shortly after his inauguration by the President at the State House yesterday, Amupitan declared that his mission was clear — to deliver free, fair, and credible elections while deepening democratic values across the nation.
During his first official meeting with the commission’s directors, he stressed that achieving INEC’s mandate would hinge on teamwork, discipline, and integrity within the institution.
“Our mandate is clear, and what is it? To deliver free, fair, and credible elections that reflect the will of the Nigerian people. To achieve this, we must work together as a team,” he stated.
Addressing INEC staff and directors, the don pledged to uphold the highest standards of transparency and accountability.
“As we mark the beginning of the new chapter, I want to assure you of my commitment to upholding the highest standard of integrity, transparency, and discipline in all our operations,” he said.
Turning his attention to the upcoming Anambra State governorship election, the INEC chairman described it as a defining moment for the commission.
“The upcoming Anambra state governorship election is not just another electoral exercise. It represents a pivot opportunity for us to demonstrate our commitment to free, fair, and credible elections,” he declared.
“The eyes of the nation are upon us, and it is our duty to rise to that occasion.
“Credibility in our election is paramount, and we must ensure that every voter feels confident that their vote will count. Because that is a constitutional task. And let’s restore back the confidence of every voter that whenever there is an election, their vote will count,” Amupitan added.
The don also made staff welfare a central part of his agenda, acknowledging that the commission’s workforce plays a vital role in ensuring credible elections.
“For me, staff welfare is going to be my priority. We are going to be expecting so much from you, so your welfare is going to be a priority.
“We’ll work assiduously and tirelessly to ensure that our working conditions are conducive and that our staff are equipped with the necessary resources to excel,” the INEC chairman assured.
The chairman, accompanied by his wife, children, and senior officials from the University of Jos, expressed gratitude to his academic colleagues who celebrated his appointment.
“I was told that the whole university got shut down out of excitement. One of theirs is now given this very heckling and important responsibility of heading this commission at this time,” he said.
Despite the weight of his new responsibilities, he said he was ready for the challenge.
“The places I’ve gone to, including some national commissioners, they were saying, I don’t envy you. But let me say that I am excited about the journey ahead.
“Together, let us uphold the values of democracy and work tirelessly for the credibility of our elections,” the don said.
He concluded his remarks on a reflective note, describing his appointment as part of a divine plan.
“Maybe if I had a choice, I would say I would not come here. But from all the indications, I could see that God is moving in this country, and my coming is divine.
“If God says go, who are you to say I’m not going? I’m here because I have a role to play to ensure that a new Nigeria is born. And of course, you know, INEC has a very, very important role to play in this quest.
“God bless you all, and God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria,” he concluded.