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Americans Elect President, ’Morrow

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Tomorrow, the first Tuesday of November, 2016, eligible American voters across all the 50 states, including Washington, D.C., Alaska, and other small island territories, will troop out to vote for their next president.

Although over the last couple of weeks, more than 40 million Americans in 38 states have already cast their ballots in early voting. To win the race for the White House, a candidate needs 270 Electoral College votes.

Polls after polls have shown the Democratic Party Presidential candidate, Hillary R. Clinton ahead of her Republican rival, Donald J. Trump, although the polls have been tightening in recent days, no thanks to the FBI Director, James Comey’s announcement of relaunch of investigation into the Democratic nominee’s private email server penultimate Friday.

As at Saturday, while Clinton was estimated to hold 268 Electoral College votes, dropping 2 votes from 204, Trump was struggling with 168. Some eight toss-up states could swing victory for the candidates.

About 80million more votes are likely between today and end of voting on Tuesday. The dark cloud cast on Clinton’s chances by the comey letter to Congress was rested yesterday, nine days after the firestorm. The FBI stands by its July conclusions, essentially exonerating Clinton.

Over the last few days of the race, Trump has travelled all over the country, from Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and even Minnesota, a mostly blue state.

It’s an impressive travel schedule, but it may reflect the biggest challenge facing him right now: It’s still not clear exactly where and how he would win.

Hillary Clinton has a consistent and clear advantage in states worth at least 270 electoral votes, even if the race has undoubtedly tightened over the last few weeks. But even that understates the challenge facing Trump’s campaign: It’s not at all obvious where he has his best chance of breaking through, making it harder for him to concentrate his efforts over the last days of the campaign.

This is not to say that Trump can’t win. The polls could be off across the board.

But even if he wins Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, Utah, North Carolina, Florida and New Hampshire, he’s still short of a victory.

He’s not assured to win any of those states, to be clear — although he’s a clear favourite in Iowa and Utah at this point. He has trailed in more live interview polls of North Carolina and Florida than he has led, although the national race has tightened since many were taken.

But he would still need to win one of the following states: Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, Virginia, or perhaps New Mexico or Minnesota.

Of all of these states, the only one where Trump has really been close in the polls is Nevada.

But Nevada is also the state where we know the most about the results because of early voting, and it hasn’t brought good news for Trump.

Even so, he’ll still need to win one of these blue states to win the presidency.

Democrats have largely replicated the turnout from 2012 (when President Barack Obama ultimately won the state by about seven points), thanks in no small part to a strong turnout among Hispanic voters.

This might seem difficult to reconcile with the polling, but Nevada is a state where pollsters have underestimated Democrats in the past. One theory is that the polls are not very good at capturing the most Democratic-leaning Hispanic voters. And indeed, the polls showing Trump ahead in the state have shown a smaller lead for Clinton among non-white voters than seems plausible, particularly given his rhetoric against Hispanic immigrants.

Perhaps, Trump will mount a huge comeback in Nevada on Election Day. Or maybe Democrats are much weaker among registered Democrats or unaffiliated voters than most analysts believe.

But if Clinton does indeed have a big advantage in Nevada, then his chances start looking very bleak: He’s at a disadvantage in the polls of all of the other states that could put him over the top.

What’s more, it’s not really clear where he has his best chance — something reflected in Trump’s unfocused pre-election push.

Pennsylvania seemed like Trump’s best option earlier in the year, but he hasn’t led a live interview poll there since the summer. The final non-partisan live interview polls there show Clinton ahead by a comfortable margin of four to six points. The state will probably be close, but it’s quite clear that she has the edge.

Wisconsin is another state that seemed as if it could be promising for Trump. It has a large population of white working-class Democrats, just as Iowa does, and Trump is running well in Iowa. But he has struggled among Republican-leaning voters in the Milwaukee suburbs.

The race could tighten if these voters return to his side, but he hasn’t led a live interview poll there all year.

Michigan could be a more interesting option for Trump. It was the most Democratic of all of these states in the 2012 election, and he hasn’t led a poll there all year either. But recent polls have shown a relatively tight race there.

Clinton visited the state on Friday, and President Obama was there yesterday and is visiting today, and Clinton will make another stop on Monday, so clearly, the Clinton campaign thinks there’s some softness there. That said, if the election comes down to whether Trump can score an upset in Michigan, he’s in a lot of trouble. It seems hard to imagine he could carry the state without also carrying Pennsylvania.

Colorado is a notch tougher than any of those states. The demographics and polling are both tough for Trump. It has one of the best-educated populations in the country, along with a large Hispanic population.

There was one recent poll that showed a tied race in Colorado, but most have shown Clinton with a lead. Like Nevada, Colorado is also a state where the Democrats have outperformed their final poll numbers in every presidential election since 2004. The early vote numbers are strong for the Democrats there as well.

Virginia is like Colorado: Neither polls nor demographics seem promising for Trump. Ultimately, the fact that the race is close in North Carolina is a very strong indicator that Clinton has a big lead in Virginia. Early voting results show Clinton in the lead in North Carolina, which Trump needs to win.

Then there are states like Minnesota and New Mexico. The polls have not shown an especially tight race, and Clinton is not campaigning or airing advertisements there. Trump’s team has held out some hope of winning, but these states seem especially unlikely to decide the election.

Again, the polls are close enough that the possibility of a victory for Trump is still quite real. But it’s just not clear exactly how or where he would break through. It doesn’t seem that the Trump campaign knows either.

But for the Clinton campaign, a close-out rally in Philadelphia, the most populous district in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, is the best way to prepare for a victory party late Tuesday.

 

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Nigerians Hit As Iran Rains Missiles On UAE

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Nigerians were among more than 140 residents injured after Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles at the United Arab Emirates, at the weekend.

This raised fresh fears for thousands of Nigerians living and working in the Gulf nation.

The UAE Ministry of Defence disclosed last Saturday that its air defence systems intercepted several missiles and drones fired from Iran, describing the attack as a major escalation in the ongoing regional tensions.

In a statement posted on its official X handle, the ministry said its air defence units engaged nine ballistic missiles and 33 drones during the latest assault on March 14.

It added that the attacks left six people dead and 141 others injured, including foreign nationals.

“The UAE air defence systems on March 14 engaged nine ballistic missiles and 33 UAVs launched from Iran,” the ministry stated.

“Since the onset of this blatant Iranian aggression, UAE air defences have engaged 294 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and 1,600 UAVs launched from Iran,” UAE added.

According to the ministry, those killed in the attacks included citizens of the UAE as well as foreign nationals from Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh.

“Although the authorities did not specify the exact locations where the casualties occurred, the ministry said the injured victims were from several countries, including Nigeria.

Others affected include residents from Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, the Philippines, Pakistan, Iran, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

The list also included Azerbaijan, Yemen, Uganda, Eritrea, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Bahrain, Comoros, Türkiye, Iraq, Nepal, Oman, Jordan, Palestine, Ghana, Indonesia and Sweden.

The Tide reports that this development has sparked concern among Nigerian communities in the UAE, where thousands of citizens live and work in sectors such as construction, hospitality, logistics and trade.

Data from Nigeria’s diaspora commission shows that the UAE remains one of the largest destinations for Nigerian migrants in the Middle East, particularly in the emirates of Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Sharjah.

The Nigerian government had in recent years raised concerns over the safety and welfare of its citizens in the country following diplomatic tensions and visa restrictions affecting Nigerians.

Saturday’s attacks have now heightened anxieties within the diaspora community, especially as the Gulf region faces growing military confrontations.

In its statement, the UAE Ministry of Defence said the country remained fully prepared to confront any threats to its security.

“The Ministry of Defence remains fully prepared and ready to deal with any threats and will firmly confront any attempts to undermine state security in a manner that ensures the protection of its sovereignty, security and stability, and safeguards its national interests and capabilities,” the ministry said.

In a separate update, the ministry noted that its defence systems were still actively intercepting missiles and drones.

“UAE air defences are dealing with Iranian ballistic and cruise missiles and drones,” it said.

Regional media reports indicate that the attacks form part of a wider escalation of hostilities between Iran and Western-backed forces in the Middle East.

According to Al Jazeera, Iran has continued sustained missile and drone strikes across the Gulf despite protests from neighbouring states.

The strikes were said to be in retaliation for military operations launched by the United States and Israel against Iranian positions in the region.

Tehran targeted several Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, late on Friday and into Saturday.

The attacks also caused infrastructural damage in parts of the UAE.

Meanwhile, Iran’s elite military wing, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, warned that US interests in the UAE would remain legitimate targets.

Iranian state media reported that the group issued the warning after US forces attacked Iranian-controlled islands.

The IRGC specifically mentioned ports, docks and military installations linked to the United States as potential targets.

It also urged residents in the UAE to evacuate areas around ports and military facilities to avoid civilian casualties.

Security analysts say the growing exchange of threats and strike across the Gulf could destabilise the region’s economic and aviation activities if the conflict escalates further.

Nigeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has yet to issue an official statement on the incident as of the time of filing this report.

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Fubara  Swears in Five New Commissioners …Says Their Best Is Needed for Rivers Dev

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Rivers State Governor, Sir Siminalayi Fubara, has charged the five new commissioners sworn-in last Wednesday to put in their best for the development of the State.

Fubara gave the charge during the swearing-in of the commissioners at the Executive Council Chambers of the Government House, Port Harcourt, last Wednesday.

This followed the successful screening of the five commissioners by the Rivers State House of Assembly, last Tuesday.

The five commissioners are Tonye Bellgam, Prof. Temple Nwofor, Dr. Peters Nwagor, Mr. Lekue Kenneth, and Sir Amairigha Edward Hart.

The Tide reports that the governor had sent nine commissioner-nominees to the Assembly for screening, but the Assembly confirmed only five nominees and rejected the nomination of four over various allegations.

Those rejected by the Assembly are Prof. Dantonye Alasia, Mrs. Charity Demua, Mr. Tamuno Williams, and Otonye Amachree.

The governor congratulated the new commissioners on their appointment, noting that their thorough screening by the Rivers State House of Assembly was a proof of their capabilities.

He urged them to deploy their wealth of experience in various fields and put the State on a fast lane of development.

“Ordinarily, I am supposed to charge you on your responsibilities and how to operate. But that has been taken care of by the screening at the Assembly.

“I believe that going through one of the most rigorous screenings, it is enough to say that for those of you who succeeded, you are fit and ready to deliver to our dear State.

“So there is no further charge. The screening was the charge, so I wish you the best as I don’t expect anything less than the best from you,” Fubara said.

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Navy Destroys Illegal Refinery In Rivers, Intercepts Stolen Fuel In C’ River

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The Nigerian Navy has intensified its crackdown on crude oil theft and illegal bunkering, destroying a reactivated illegal refinery site in Rivers State and intercepting suspected stolen petroleum products in Calabar, Cross River State.

The Director of Naval Information, Capt Abiodun Folorunsho, disclosed this in a statement released in Abuja, yesterday.

Folorunsho said personnel of the Nigerian Navy Ship SOROH, operating under Operation DELTA SENTINEL, destroyed a reactivated illegal refinery site at Okolomade Community in Abua-Odual Local Government Area of Rivers State.

He said the action followed credible intelligence that a previously dismantled illegal refining site had resumed operations.

According to him, an Anti–Crude Oil Theft team deployed to the location discovered that the dismantled refining oven had been reconstructed.

“Further exploitation of the area led to the discovery of additional refining equipment and storage facilities containing about 3,000 litres of product suspected to be illegally refined Automotive Gas Oil (AGO),” he said.

Folorunsho added that the illegal refining infrastructure, including ovens, storage tanks, hoses, connected pipes and newly acquired metal components used for illegal refining, was destroyed in line with operational procedures.

He said personnel of the Nigerian Navy Ship Victory, in another operation, intercepted about 3,950 litres of suspected stolen petroleum products at the Nigerian Ports Authority area in Calabar, Cross River State.

He said the interception was based on credible intelligence on suspected siphoning of petroleum products from vessels berthed at the port.

The naval patrol team, according to him, swiftly deployed to the area and traced the illegally siphoned products to a trailer park within the port facility.

“On sighting the naval patrol team, the suspected perpetrators fled the scene, after which the area was cordoned off and the illegally siphoned products secured,” he said.

Folorunsho said further inspection led to the recovery of about 3,950 litres of Automotive Gas Oil stored in drums and jerrycans, which had been evacuated to the naval base for further necessary action in line with extant regulations.

He noted that the successes aligned with the directive of the Chief of the Naval Staff, Vice Adm. Idi Abbas, to intensify operations against crude oil theft and other maritime crimes across Nigeria’s maritime domain.

Folorunsho reiterated the Navy’s commitment to sustaining the operational tempo of Operation DELTA SENTINEL through intensified surveillance, patrols and intelligence-driven operations aimed at combating crude oil theft, illegal bunkering and other forms of economic sabotage.

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