Politics
Between Jonathan And Atiku
The stage is set for the clash of the titans for the seat of the President, Federal Republic of Nigeria under the umbrella of the PDP. Burning issues in the polity, based on zoning, power shift, power rotation, exploitation and domination of minorities, resource control, federal revenue derivation has turned the contest to a North-South South struggle.
The Northern disposition of upholding the PDP zoning agenda, reinforced by their claim that the tenure of northerners as president is stiff and unfinished business, given the demise of late President Umaru Yara’Adua, who led for three years before given up the ghost. The emergence of politicians like Maj-Gen IBB, Atiku Abubakar, Shekarau etc. tend to endanger the chances of the northerners from grabbing the position. This motivated the Adamu Ciroma-led NPLF to conduct the consensus election for all northern aspirants in PDP, in which Atiku Abubakar emerged the winner. Now the question is, Atiku and Jonathan who does the cap fit?
Answering questions of this magnitude requires and unparalleled analytical ability of this two personalities, their political antecedents, their economic strength, strength of their campaign teams, people –oriented acceptability analysis, their current political form, the needs of the politico-economic entity Nigeria in the next four years.
Personality Analysis:
Atiku, Sarkin Turaki is a firm personality; he’s got guts, he’s a kind of person that goes for what he wants unmindful of whose ox is gored. He looks pretty hard, a bit rigid, and unlikely o favour a bargain against his conscience. He has a fighting spirit, dogged, as clearly seen in his face-off with OBJ, loves and lives a life of affluence, capital accumulation and continuous acquisition of properties. His ostentatious life outside the country, makes him so high an unapproachable capitalist in the eyes of his kinsmen, which makes his social life, popularity, degree of integration with the masses questionable. IBB proves to be a more down to earth politician than he is.
Jonathan is a gentleman in words and in action, a lecturer before he joined politics. He is a humane, lighter personality, who is willing to trade off some of his personal interest for the interest of peace, not over-ambitious, quiet, patient man. He is a kind of personality whose silence, calm disposition is quickly misconstrued by many, but he is on the contrary a pragmatic, rationale person in decision taking. Though he is not a kind of shouty politician, with much popularity, he has made millions of open and secret admirers and has few problems with his colleagues if any, actually favoured by the masses.
Political Antecedents:
Atiku has been a former governor of his state, a former vice president under OBJ, that’s his political antecedents in mainstream national politics. Jonathan Goodluck has been a former deputy governor of Bayelsa State under DSP Alamieyeseigha, a governor of the state, a former vice president under late president Umaru Yar’Adua, a former acting president and now the President, Federal Republic of Nigeria.
Sarkin Turaki’s tenure as vice president of the country was marred with power tussle between him and his master OBJ, this led to his indictment by the EFCC on case of money laundering, siphon of government funds and misuse of office in the acquisition of many companies via his privatization policy during their regime. Struggling with the master and the powers that be, SARKIN TURAKI gained ground, had loyalist and has been fighting to fill the no I position of the country amidst the political tides. Now, he is back with the slogan “the man OBJ and EFCC could not stop” an eloquent testimony of his preparedness to break into piece all bars of iron and gates of bronze inhibiting his emergence as the president, including OBJ.
On the contrary, JONATHAN, have not had much scores to settle with his colleagues, masters in the game, he has almost prudently observed Robert Greene’s law no. 1, his 48 laws of power, “never outshines the master”. His trying times came when his master Umaru Musa Yar’Adua’s health crisis reached its peak. The state was in anarchy for 5 months. He did not strategise to take over, he only sat down and watch the northern political juggernauts play their gimmicks. But if GOD propose who can dispose? Others championed the course that made him acting president, not that he hadn’t the strength to go for it, but he wasn’t ambitious.
Economic Strength:
An unbiased analysis, in the declaration of assets of Jonathan before assuming the position against Atiku’s current financial state. Atiku is more financially robust than Jonathan.
Campaign Strength:
Atiku’s campaign organization which has its branches in almost all the states of federation with its headquarters at No 1 Luanda Crescent Off Adetokunbo Ademola Crescent Wuse 2, Abuja parades professionals, sophisticated, highly equipped staffs, volunteers, analyst, prominent politicians working round the clock. Spearheading his campaigns are persons of the caliber of Senator Ben Obi, Mr Chris Mammah, Dr Adeolu Akande, Garba Shehu, Bashir Yussuf, Prof Gidad Maxwell, Dr Udenta with a host of other fellows integrated from four campaign organizations of four northern aspirants.
They have succeeded in securing Atiku a successful return to PDP. A waiver to contest the position of the presidency which OBJ has incessantly denied him in the platform of PDP, and they also helped him emerge as consensus candidate of the North in PDP via NPLF.
Jonathan campaign team parades men like Ambassador Dalhatu Sarki Tafida, Sully Abu, Dr Godsday Orubebe, Mike Omeri, Dr Saidu Samaila Sambawa, Mrs Biodun Olujuna, Abubakar Muazu et.
From all indications, sources gathered that though other professionals are said to be at work for Jonathan’s, the level of proficiency, hardwork, dedication in Atiku’s camp is far more greater than what is available in Jonathan camp.
Prime Movers Behind These Men:
For Atiku, rpime movers like Mallam Adamu Ciroma, Alex Ekwueme, Chief Matthew Mbu, Chief Tom Ikimi, Major Gen. IBB, Aliyu Gasau, Governor Bukola Saraki, Mr Bashir Yussuf Ibrahim, Sabo Abdulahi and many more.
For Jonathan, his movers are Maj Gen OBJ, Gov Godswill Akpabio, Sen David Mark, Speaker Bankole, Tony Anenih (Mr Fix It). The man that said that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock. Many other governors, ministers, house of rep and senate members seeking re-election.
The war of words between these two sects of political groups has taken another dimension since the emergence of Atiku as the Northern consensus candidate, coupled with his campaign slogans which depicts his violent pride over his achievement of returning to the PDP, securing a waiver to contest amidst strong opposition from the PDP Board of Trustee chairman, OBJ.
This is a game, perceived by Adamu Ciroma as the struggle for the maintenance of the politico-economic containment of the Northern hemisphere in the nation, through its renowned Mafia. A battle by Atiku against the bewitchment his intelligence, human right to contest and win by claims of unquestionable political hegemony of Obasanjo and a total war against the insurmountable nature of the power of incumbency with Jonathan. Who wins this war?
Their Current Political Form
Atiku is just a citizen of Nigeria, currently without any political portfolio, but who strongly believes that with his wealth and former political structure by him, he can move mountains. Goodluck Jonathan is currently the president of the country.
What Nigeria Needs In The Next Four Years.
Nigeria needs political stability, Nigeria needs economic stability in the form of increase in Government revenue, high per capita income, economic restructuring to aid equitable distribution of the nation’s resources. Nigeria needs creation of employment opportunities for graduates and everybody seeking employment, Nigeria needs relative price stability, inflow of foreign direct investments and a total stop to money laundering and capital flight. Nigeria needs a drastic reduction of salaries of lawmakers, by at least 30%, use it to finance unemployment benefits for people unemployed. The question is who is in a better position to make these things happen?, Jonathan or Atiku?
Conclusion
In the personality analysis, I think Atiku’s personality would be utility oriented in times of taking hard decisions, in matters of war and peace to protect the territorial integrity of the nation. On the other hand I think Nigerians who prefer the soft person in Jonathan, who can still reconsider his stand for the interest of his people. This can be seen in his withdrawal of his ban on Super Eagles, football in Nigeria after a poor outing in South Africa considering the consequences of the FIFA hammer on the future of upcoming talents and the happiness of Nigerians. On that paraphernalia we give it to Jonathan.
On the political antecedents and experience, from the analysis above, Jonathan has occupied more positions in the smallest period of time than Atiku, also having few or now personal issues with his colleagues during his stay in those offices gives him an edge on that. Judging from their economic strength, Atiku is more prepared for the battle than Jonathan with respect to their equity capital. On their campaign strength, Atiku steal leads Jonathan given the information symmertry, cohesion, dedication, hardwork, connectivity among his group and their successes so far.
On the men behind them, Atiku’s men are majorly veterans in the game, the Northern mafia with a lot of experience. It is still very difficult to undermine the strength of people like OBJ, Tony Anenih on the side of Jonathan, but what makes this struggle classical is the personal challenge between OBJ and Atiku. OBJ’s statement “I dey laugh o” and Atiku’s campaign group’s response “we dey laugh too o” on that standpoint it’s a 50-50 game.
With respect to their current political form, Jonathan is excellently on top. Finally giving an unbiased analysis of the needs of Nigerians against the potentials of these aspirants, for political stability to remain Jonathan is the man, because the emergence of Atiku would mean a total dismantling of the Niger Delta which is inimical to capital inflows in form of FDI (Foreign Direct Investments), FPI (Foreign Private Investments), which would affect availability of jobs and reduce government revenue through potential taxes from these firms.
For economic restructuring and equitable distribution of income wouldn’t work with Atiku given his orientation towards privatization of companies, capital accumulation, acquisition of properties. Given the position of Karl Marx in his Das capital concerning capital accumulation, he said” accumulation of capital, wealth on one sie of the pole is at the same time accumulation of poverty, misery, agony of starvation on the other side of the pole.”
On the case of price stability, this is an index that is usually transmitted in Nigeria through movements in prices of petroleum products, especially fuel, but since Goodluck Jonathan became the president, he quickly declared for sale our oil in northern reservoir, this has made the supply of the commodity more than its demands, a singular reason that can make any Nigerian vote for him, this stability in the internal price of petrol has reinforced stability in other goods and services in the country, on this standpoint Jonathan is favoured. The last but not the least is the government revenue. Crude oil contribute 75% of Nigerian revenue and all the crude oil that sustains the country is drilled from the Niger Delta area, who have been crying out since 1960 of the domination, exploitation of the government on the area without corresponding development strides for the goose that lays the golden egg. Now, by an act of God, one of their sons manages to be at the helm of affairs of the nation and someone from the same north that has been ruling the country for years wants to outwit him. The consequences are at our tips, no more oil drilling which implies no more money for the economy, any attempts to use force on them metamorphoses into a holy war and finally a possible disintegration of the country, but we don’t pray so.
This is just a personal opinion.
Egege Justice
Justice Egege
The Senate yesterday received the 2026-2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper from President Bola Tinubu, marking the formal launch of the 2026 federal budget cycle.
In a letter addressed to the upper chamber, Tinubu said the submission complies with statutory requirements and sets out the fiscal parameters that will guide the preparation of the 2026 Appropriation Bill.
He explained that the MTEF/FSP outlines the macroeconomic assumptions, revenue projections, and spending priorities that will shape Nigeria’s fiscal direction over the next three years.
The letter was read during plenary by the Deputy President of the Senate, Senator Barau Jibrin (APC, Kano North), who urged lawmakers to expedite consideration of the document.
“It is with pleasure that I forward the 2026 to 2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper for the kind consideration and approval of the Senate.
“The 2026 to 2028 MTEF and FSP were approved during the Federal Executive Council meeting of December 3, 2025, and the 2026 budget of the Federal Government will be prepared based on the parameters and fiscal assumptions therein,” the President stated.
Last week, the Federal Executive Council approved the fiscal projections, pegging the oil benchmark price at $64.85 per barrel and adopting a budget exchange rate of ?1,512/$1 for 2026—figures expected to significantly shape revenue forecasts and expenditure planning.
After reading the President’s letter, Jibrin referred the document to the Senate Committee on Finance, chaired by Senator Sani Musa (APC, Niger East), with a directive to submit its report by Wednesday, December 17.
The Senate adjourned shortly after to allow committees to commence scrutiny of the fiscal framework and continue the ongoing screening of ambassadorial nominees.
Tinubu’s communication to the Senate came less than 24 hours after he transmitted the same MTEF/FSP documents to the leadership of the House of Representatives.
The letter was read on the House floor by the Deputy Speaker, House of Representatives, Benjamin Kalu, who also urged timely legislative action as required by law.
The MTEF and FSP are statutory instruments mandated by the Fiscal Responsibility Act and serve as the blueprint for Nigeria’s annual budgets.
They outline the government’s fiscal stance, macroeconomic assumptions, revenue frameworks, projected deficits, and sectoral priorities over a three-year period.
The Tide reports that approval by the National Assembly is a prerequisite for the executive to present the Appropriation Bill for the next fiscal year.
In a statement on Saturday, the former Senate Leader stated that the allocation of nominees across states and geopolitical zones falls short of the constitutional requirement for fair representation in the composition of the Federal Government.
The ex-Senate Whip warned that allowing the list to pass could deepen ethnic suspicion at a time when the administration should be consolidating national unity.
He highlighted disparities in the spread of nominees, noting that while some states have three or four slots, others have none. He also cited the inclusion of Senator Adamu Garba Talba from Yobe, who reportedly died in July.
“The entire North-East states have seven nominees in the list. Further checks revealed that the South-West geo-political zone has 15 nominees, while North-West and South-East have 13 and 9, respectively.
“North-Central region has 10 nominees in the list of career and non-career ambassadorial nominee while South-South parades 12 nominees,” Senator Ndume said.
According to him, such imbalances could heighten tensions and undermine Section 14(3) of the Constitution.
“My sincere appeal to President Tinubu is to withdraw this list. At this critical juncture in his administration, he should avoid missteps that could undermine national unity and foster ethnic distrust.
“I know him to be a cosmopolitan leader who is at home with every segment and stakeholder in the country. He should withdraw that list and present a fresh set of nominees that will align with the spirit of the Constitution on the Federal Character Principle,” Senator Ndume added.
He accused the legislators of undermining the sanctity of the legislature and acting as instruments of destabilization.
“The members of the Rivers State House of Assembly have, by their actions since they assumed office, shown that they are political puppets and a clog in the wheels of democratic progress,” Comrade Ememobong stated, adding that “They will go down in history as enemies of democracy and those who made mockery of the legislature.”
“So the easiest way to describe their action is a defection from APC to APC,” he said.
Comrade Ememobong announced that the party would deploy constitutional provisions to reclaim its mandate from those who have “ignobly and surreptitiously” abandoned the platform on which they were elected.
“Consequently, the PDP will take legal steps to activate the provision of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (1999 as amended) to recover the mandate gained under the banner of our party which these people have now switched to another platform,” he said.
He urged party members in Rivers State to remain calm and steadfast.
“We urge all party members in Rivers State to remain faithful and resolute, as efforts are underway to rebuild the party along the path of inclusiveness, fairness and equity,” Comrade Ememobong assured.
