Oil & Energy

Tight Now, Loose Later: Oil Futures Flash Warning

Published

1 year ago

May 12, 2025

Last week, OPEC+ announced it will once again accelerate the pace of unwinding of production cuts, with output targets for June increasing by 411,000 barrels per day, equivalent to three monthly increments.
This follows a similar move in April, with the organization appearing willing to stay the course amid low oil prices and fears of weakening demand.
We reported that global crude inventories remain low enough, thus giving OPEC+ a window to scale back its voluntary cuts until the market surplus finally arrives.
Saudi Arabia appears intent on “punishing” OPEC+ rascals such as Kazakhstan and Iran for repeatedly violating their quotas.
Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have reported that the latest OPEC survey of secondary sources reveals that Kazakhstan’s crude oil output clocked in at 1.852 mb/d in March, 384 kb/d above its OPEC+ quota.
Further, the country also failed to keep its promise to cut 38 kb/d in compensation for overproduction in March, bringing its total overproduction to 422 kb/d.
The same scenario is expected to unfold in the coming months. Kazakhstan produced 240 kb/d more y/y in March, a sharp contrast from the other eight OPEC+ members who produced a combined 612 kb/d less.
And now, the oil futures markets are sending a dire warning that oil bulls could find themselves in trouble quite soon due to a combination of the OPEC+ output hike and Trump’s tariffs.
Oil futures curve has formed a rare “smile” shape, a structure Morgan Stanley says was last seen briefly in February 2020 just before the infamous oil price crash.
On Wednesday, Brent futures’ July contract was trading at a premium of 74 cents to the October contract, a market structure known as backwardation, foreshadowing immediate tight supply.
However, prompt prices from November have formed a contango, with forward prices flipping to a discount, indicating oversupply as traders predict Trump’s tariffs will eventually weaken oil demand. Having backwardation and contango together leads to the rare “smile” shaped curve.
According to the latest available data by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil inventories stood at 7.647 billion barrels in February, down from 7.709 billion barrels for last year’s corresponding period and close to the bottom of their historical five-year range.
Meanwhile, refiners’ appetite for crude is climbing ahead of the peak driving season in July and August, “Refinery maintenance in the Atlantic basin will start to taper off, increasing oil demand (for refining)… Summer driving should provide some support,” BNP Paribas analyst told Reuters.
Global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day in the third quarter of the current year, up from an average of 104.51 million bpd in the second quarter, the IEA has predicted.
The 1 million bpd output increases announced by OPEC+ so far, coupled with another 400 kb/d increase in July, almost matches the predicted demand increase, implying oil markets will not face a surplus till late in the year.
Meanwhile, oil prices jumped in Thursday’s session after the Trump administration announced it has struck a trade deal with the UK. Brent crude for July delivery was up 2.7% to trade at $62.75/bbl at 12.50 pm ET while WTI crude contract for June delivery added 3.0% to change hands at $59.86 per barrel. However, terms of the deal appear to fall well short of the “comprehensive” package Trump earlier touted.
According to Trump, UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, will further reduce non-tariff barriers and fast-track U.S. goods into his country.
Meanwhile, another solid week of jobless claims underscored the Federal Reserve’s ongoing unwillingness to cut rates. U.S. jobless claims fell 13,000 to 228,000 for the period ending on May 3.
Continued claims, however, clocked in at just over 1.9 million, near the highest levels since 2021, suggesting workers are still finding it difficult to secure new jobs as the economy stalls.
That said, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have predicted that path of least resistance for oil prices is lower in the coming months, with oil prices to remain low before beginning a gradual recovery later in the year as U.S. oil output declines.
StanChart, however, says there’s some technical support in the short-term, with fundamentals remaining fairly positive. Recently, StanChart cut its 2025 oil price forecast to $61/bbl from $76 and also lowered its 2026 forecast to USD 78/bbl from $85 citing Trump’s tariffs.

By: Alex Kimani

Oil & Energy

Rivers PETROAN Elects 12-Member Executive

Published

1 day ago

May 18, 2026

The Tide

The Petroleum Products Retail Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Rivers State Branch, has elected a 12 – member executive to steer the affairs of the association for the next four years.

The executive, elected during the Annual General Meeting (AGM) of the association, at it’s secretariat in Port Harcourt, and sworn in immediately after the election, was mandated to, among other things, tackle the adulteration of petroleum products as well as address irregularities in meter readings across the state.

The newly elected executive include, Pastor Ezekiel I. Eletuo as Chairman, Kanu Addeson C. as Vice Chairman , Dr. Ejike Jonathan Nnbuihe as Secretary, Fidelis A.Inaku as Treasurer and Lady C. N. Ekejiuba as Financial Secretary.

Others are Anaenye Anthony as Publicity Secretary, Arc. Kingsley O. Anyino as Organising Secretary, Nze Peter Ezenwa as Chief Whip, and Sunny Williams as Auditor.

Other members of the executive included Chidiebere Ronel Akwara as Welfare Officer, Ibe Chimaobi C. as Legal Adviser, and Emetoh Chizoba as Assistant Secretary.

Inaugurating the new leadership, PETROAN Zonal Chairman, High Chief Sunny G. Nkpe, charged the team to build on the achievements of the outgoing executive.

He urged them to collaborate with stakeholders in the petroleum sector to ensure industry stability and address issues of multiple taxation.

Nkpe who emphasized the need for transparency, accountability, and an open-door policy in administering the union, insisted these principles remained crucial in advancing the association’s objectives and improving members’ welfare.

The zonal chairman also commended the outgoing executive for their accomplishments during their tenure and for conducting a smooth transition process.

He further described their efforts as instrumental in strengthening the union’s standing in the state.

In his acceptance speech, the new Chairman, Pastor Ezekiel I. Eletuo, thanked members for their confidence and pledged to improve on the foundations laid by the previous administration.

He promised his leadership would be guided by transparency, accountability, fairness, unity, and integrity.

Eletuo called on all members to support the new executive in its efforts to elevate the association.

Also speaking, the immediate past Chairman, of the association, Sir Chilam Francis Dimkpa, expressed appreciation to members for their support during his administration and stressed the need for them to extend the same cooperation to the new leadership.

Dimkpa highlighted key achievements of his tenure to include capacity building for members, increased union visibility through media advocacy, and the establishment of stronger ties with stakeholders, corporate organisations, and individuals.

He also acknowledged the support of the state government, the Police, the Department of State Services (DSS) and the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC).

Stakeholders present at the event also delivered their goodwill messages.

Highlights of the event included administration of oath of office to the new executive and the presentation of certificates of return by the zonal chairman. .

By: Amadi Akujobi

Oil & Energy

FG Intensifies Efforts To Reposition Tourism Sector

Published

1 day ago

May 18, 2026

The Tide

The Federal Government has intensified efforts towards reposition Nigeria’s hospitality and tourism industry for global competitiveness, aimed at strengthening regulation, professionalism and workforce standards across the sector.

This was made known last week when the National Institute for Hospitality and Tourism (NIHOTOUR) conferred fellowships, inducted professionals and inaugurated the governing boards of the Hospitality and Tourism Sector Skills Council of Nigeria (HTSSCN) in Abuja.

The high-profile event, held at Merit House, Maitama, drew senior government officials, regulators, tourism operators, cultural institutions, hospitality investors and development partners in what stakeholders described as a major institutional shift .

Government also formally inducted registered practitioners into various professional categories while also inaugurating the Board of Trustees and Board of Directors of the HTSSCN, an employer-led platform designed to align workforce competencies with industry expectations.

Speaking at the event, the Minister of Art, Culture, Tourism and the Creative Economy, Hannatu Musa Musawa, said the initiative represented a strategic intervention to strengthen accountability, standards and institutional coordination within Nigeria’s tourism and hospitality ecosystem.

According to the minister, Nigeria’s vast cultural assets, tourism destinations and creative talents can only translate into sustainable economic value through professionalism, regulation and globally accepted operational standards.

She noted that tourism and hospitality industry remains one of the fastest-growing sectors globally, contributing significantly to employment generation, foreign exchange earnings and cultural diplomacy.

Musawa explained that NIHOTOUR Establishment Act has expanded the institute’s mandate beyond training, positioning it as a regulatory and certification authority for hospitality, tourism and travel practitioners in the country.

“No sector can attain sustainable growth without structure, standards, institutional coordination and skilled professionals,” she said, stressing the need for stronger collaboration between government agencies, operators, training institutions and private sector stakeholders.

In his keynote address, the Director-General and Chief Executive Officer of NIHOTOUR, Abisoye Fagade, described the event as a historic turning point in the formalisation of Nigeria’s tourism and hospitality industry.

Fagade said the induction of practitioners, conferment of fellowships and inauguration of the HTSSCN governing boards marked the beginning of a new era of institutional governance, professional recognition and sector-wide coordination.

“Regulation and standardisation are no longer optional; they are economic necessities if Nigeria truly intends to compete globally,” he stated.

By: Nkpemenyie Mcdominic, Lagos

Oil & Energy

Big Oil Reconsiders Previously Unattractive Destinations

Published

1 day ago

May 18, 2026

The Tide

The Middle Eastern crisis has prompted a reprioritization among international oil companies. Previously unattractive drilling destinations are suddenly looking quite attractive—even Alaska.

The oldest oil and gas producing part of the United States has for years been out of the spotlight as the industry moves to cheaper and faster-growing locations. The only news of any substance about Alaska recently was the Biden administration’s approval of the Willow project, led by ConocoPhillips, which was set to boost the state’s oil output by 160,000 barrels daily, and Australian Santos’ Pikka project, set to start commercial production this year. That was years ago. Now, Big Oil is eager to drill in Alaska.

Earlier this month, a lease sale in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska attracted record bids, worth a total $163 million. Among the bidders were Exxon, Shell, and Repsol, with the latter already partnering with Santos on the Pikka development. And this may be just the beginning.

Related: Saudi Aramco Looks to Raise $10 Billion from Real Estate Asset Deal

The Bureau of Land Management offered 625 tracts across about 5.5 million acres for bid in the sale, revived at the end of last year by the Trump administration. No lease sales were held in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska under President Biden. Yet under Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, there will be a total of five lease sales in Alaska over the next ten years.

“With the imminent start-up of the Pikka project on the North Slope, the reversal in the decline of oil production in the great state of Alaska is going to help put more oil in the Pacific area at an important moment,” Repsol’s head of upstream operations, Francisco Gea, said as quoted by the Financial Times. Gea called Alaska “a fantastic opportunity”. The Pikka project, which has a price tag of $4.5 billion, will produce up to 80,000 barrels daily.

It is indeed a fantastic opportunity, at the very least because it is nowhere near the Middle East and as such is a highly secure energy exploration destination. Canada is in a similar position, by the way: the head of the International Energy Agency earlier this month told an industry event Canada had a golden opportunity to step in as a secure energy supplier in a world that’s currently 14 million barrels daily short on supply because of the Middle Eastern crisis.

Security, then, is what has prompted Big Oil to return to the North—even Shell, which left in 2015 after writing off as much as $7 billion on an unsuccessful drilling campaign hampered, among other things, by strong environmentalist opposition. According to the Financial Times, the supermajor’s decision to partake in the latest Alaska lease sale was surprising for analysts.

However, according to chief executive Wael Sawan, the lease sale concerns a different part of the state. “It is a very, very, very different part of Alaska that we have gone to,” he told the Financial Times. “This is an onshore exploration opportunity in a very well-established basin that has been producing for some time… So this is not offshore Alaska where we have had the challenges in the past.”

Crude oil is not the only thing drawing the energy industry to Alaska in these times of oil and gas trouble. Gas is also a magnet—in this case, in the form of the Alaska LNG project. Interest in the Alaska LNG export project has spiked since the war in the Middle East choked 20% of global LNG supply and sent Asian buyers scrambling for expensive spot cargoes.

Glenfarne Group, the majority owner and developer of the facility, aims to sign binding offtake agreements with buyers soon and advance final investment decisions to later in 2026 and early 2027, company executives told media earlier this year on the sidelines of an energy conference in Tokyo.

“There’s a real interest, particularly with everything happening in the Middle East right now. Everyone would like to get those (preliminary deals) turned into long-term agreements,” Adam Prestidge, president of Glenfarne Alaska LNG, told Reuters in March.

Alaska LNG is designed to deliver North Slope natural gas to Alaskans and export LNG to U.S. allies across the Pacific. An 800-mile pipeline is planned to transport the gas from the production centers in the North Slope to south-central Alaska for exports. In addition, multiple gas interconnection points will ensure meeting in-state gas demand.

The latest Alaska developments show clearly how the Middle East war has put energy security back in the spotlight, making previously challenging locations desirable again. With an estimated 1 billion barrels of oil supply wiped out of markets since the war began, according to Aramco’s Amin Nasser, alternative supply sources have become urgently needed, and not just for the short term. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon—which at the moment seems unlikely—energy security will in all probability remain a top priority both for energy producers and for consumers.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com