Business

Economic Crisis: CBN Forecast Further Naira Fall In Jan

Published

5 years ago

December 28, 2020

Barely five days to the end of the year 2020, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), has disclosed that a survey carried out by its Statistics Department revealed that the Naira was expected to depreciate further in January, 2021.
The report, titled, ‘December 2020 Business Expectations Survey Report’, added that there might also be a steady rise in interest rate from December till the next six months.
The Naira witnessed a sharp fall in recent weeks, reaching its lowest on November 30, 2020, when it exchanged for N500/$1.
Since then, the Dollar has been hovering between N460 and N470.
As at last Friday, however, $1 exchanged for N465 in the parallel market.
Also, the Nigerian economy had on November 21 slid into its second recession in five years when the economy shrank again in the third quarter.
The recession is said to be the worst in 36 years, according to the data obtained from the World Bank.
The Federal Government and some economists had expressed optimism that the country would exit the recession in 2021.
Meanwhile, in the 11-page survey report, the CBN said it conducted the survey online from December 7 to 11, with a sample size of 1,050 businesses nationwide.
It noted that a response rate of 91.3 per cent was achieved and that the sample covered the agriculture/services, manufacturing, wholesale/retail trade and construction sectors.
It added that the respondent firms were made up of small, medium and large corporations covering both import-oriented and export-oriented businesses.
The report partly read, “Respondent firms expect the naira to depreciate in the current month and next month but appreciate in the next two months and the next six months.
“Inflation level is expected to rise in the next six and 12 months as firms expect the average inflation rate in the next six months and the next 12 months to stand at 13.24 and 14.51 per cent, while borrowing rate is expected to rise in the current month, next month, next two months and the next six months with indices of 19.2, 14.9, 14.7 and 14.3 points.”
In the survey, respondent firms expressed pessimism on the macro economy, while their outlook on the volume of business activities, average capacity utilisation, the volume of total order and financial condition (working capital) were positive.
The CBN stated that respondent firms identified insufficient power supply, unfavourable economic climate, competition, high interest rates, unclear economic laws, financial problems, unfavourable political climate, access to credit, insufficient demand, lack of equipment, lack of materials input, and labour problems as major factors constraining business activities in December, 2020.
In a separate development, the apex bank in a communiqué number 133 of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on November 23 and 24 and signed by the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele, said the aggregate domestic credit grew by 7.61 per cent in October, 2020, compared with 7.35 per cent in the previous month.
This, it said, was as a result of the bank’s policy on Loan-to-Deposit Ratio, supported by its interventions in the various sectors of the economy, adding that total bank credit grew in the banking industry by N290.13billion between the end of August and the middle of November.
The communiqué added, “Total gross credit by the banking industry stood at N19.54trillion as at November 13, 2020, compared with N19.33trillion at the end of August, 2020, an increase of N290.13billion.
“When compared with N15.56trillion at the commencement of the LDR policy in May, 2019, total gross credit increased by N3.97trillion, these loans were granted mainly to manufacturing (N738billion), general commerce (N874billion), agric and forestry (N301billion), construction (N291billion), and ICT (N231billion), just to mention a few.”
The communiqué noted further that the MPC observed the gradual improvement in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices, which rose to 50.2 and 47.6 index points respectively, in November, 2020, compared with 49.4 and 46.8 index points in October, 2020.
It added, “This development signposts an increase in economic activities, driven by growth in new orders, improved supply delivery time, rising production levels and new export orders. The employment level index component of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs also improved in November, 2020 to 47.3 index points and 46.7 index points, respectively, compared with 46.0 index points and 44.2 index points in October, 2020.
“The committee, however, noted the likely downside risk to growth of the recent unrest in the country, warning that this may adversely impact economic recovery in the near term.”
Meanwhile, on respondents’ opinion over the control of inflation, the CBN report said the respondents decried the poor management of inflation by the government.
It said, “Respondent firms expressed dissatisfaction with the management of inflation by the government, with a negative net satisfaction index -33.5 in December, 2020.”
On the business outlook, the report showed that at -15.2 index points, the overall confidence index on the macro economy was pessimistic in December, 2020 while respondents were optimistic in their outlook for the month of January, 2021 with a confidence index of 29.4.
The respondents also expressed optimism in the overall business outlook for February and June, 2021 as shown in a greater confidence of the economy with 39.2 and 55.2 index points, respectively.
It added, “The pessimism on the macro economy in the current month was driven by the opinion of respondents from agriculture/services (-10.4 points), wholesale/retail trade sectors (-1.7), construction (-1.6 points) and manufacturing sectors (-1.6 points).
“The major drivers of optimism for next month were agriculture/services (16.8 points) and manufacturing sectors (10.3 points). Further analysis revealed that businesses that were neither import and export-oriented (-9.5 points), both import and export-oriented (-3.4 points), importers (-2.0 points) and exporters (-0.2 points), drove the negative business outlook for the month under review.”
In terms of employment and expansion plans, the report said respondent firms’ opinion on the volume of business activities indicated a favourable business outlook for January and February, 2021, with indices of 47.7 and 55.0, respectively.
It added, “Businesses also hope to employ in January and February, 2021 as the outlook was positive at 18.5 and 21.5 index points, respectively.
“The breakdown by sector showed that the agric/services sector with (20.5 points) has the highest prospect for employment in the next month, followed by construction sector with an index of 17.9 points, manufacturing sector (16.7 points) and wholesale/retail trade (13.4 points).
“Respondents were also optimistic about the volume of business activities and employment outlook index in the next six months as all indices were positive. An analysis of businesses with expansion plans in January showed that the agric/services sector and construction sector have the highest disposition to expand with 52.9 index points each.”

Business

AFAN Unveils Plans To Boost Food Production In 2026

Published

1 day ago

January 9, 2026

The Tide

The leadership of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN) has set the tone for the new year with a renewed focus on food security, unity and long-term growth of the agricultural sector.

The association announced that its General Assembly of Farmers Congress will take place from January 15 to 17, 2026 at the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industries, along Lugbe Airport Road, in the Federal Capital Territory.

The gathering is expected to bring together farmers, policymakers, investors and development partners to shape a fresh direction for Nigerian agriculture.

In a New Year address to members and stakeholders, AFAN president, Dr Farouk Rabiu Mudi, said the congress would provide a strategic forum for reviewing past challenges and outlining practical solutions for the future.

He explained that the event would serve as a rallying point for innovation, collaboration and economic renewal within the sector.

Mudi commended farmers across the country for their determination and hard work, despite years of insecurity, climate-related pressures and economic uncertainty.

According to him, their resilience has kept food production alive and positioned agriculture as a stabilising force in the national economy.

He noted that AFAN intends to build on this strength by resetting agribusiness operations to improve productivity and sustainability.

The AFAN leader appealed to government institutions, private investors and development organisations to deepen their engagement with the association.

He stressed the need for collective action to confront persistent issues such as insecurity in farming communities, climate impacts and market instability.

He also urged members to put aside internal disputes and personal interests, encouraging cooperation and shared responsibility in pursuit of national development.

Mudi outlined key priorities that include increasing food output, expanding support for farmers at the grassroots and strengthening local manufacturing through partnerships with both domestic and international investors adding that reducing dependence on imports remains critical to protecting the economy and creating jobs.

He stated that the upcoming congress will feature the launch of AFAN’s twenty-five-year agricultural mechanisation roadmap, alongside the announcement of new partnerships designed to accelerate growth across the value chain.

Participants, he said wi also have opportunities for networking and knowledge exchange aimed at transforming agriculture into a more competitive and technology-driven sector.

As part of its modernisation drive, AFAN is further encouraging members nationwide to enrol for the newly introduced Digital ID Card.

Mudi said the initiative will improve transparency, ensure proper farmer identification and make it easier to access support programmes and services.

Reaffirming the association’s long-term goal, he said the vision of national food sufficiency by 2030 remains achievable if unity and collaboration are sustained.

He expressed optimism that with collective effort, Nigeria’s agricultural sector can overcome its challenges and deliver a more secure and prosperous future.

Lady Usendi

Business

Industrialism, Agriculture To End Food Imports, ex-AfDB Adviser Tells FG

Published

1 day ago

January 9, 2026

The Tide

Former Senior Special Adviser on Industrialisation to the President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Professor Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, has urged the Nigerian government to urgently industrialise the agricultural sector as a pathway to food security, economic diversification, and sustainable job creation.

Professor Oyelaran-Oyeyinka made the call while speaking at the Oyo State Economic Summit held at the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Ibadan, during a lecture titled “Industrialising Agriculture for Economic Development and Food Security: Enhancing National Economies and Sub-National Entities.”

He cautioned that despite Nigeria’s vast arable land and its position as a leading global producer of crops such as cassava and yams, the country remains food-deficient and heavily dependent on costly food imports.

He highlighted that Nigeria spends over one trillion naira annually importing wheat, rice, sugar, and fish, a persistent trend that drains foreign exchange, undermines local farmers, weakens industrial competitiveness, and fuels unemployment.

The development economist argued that the solution lay in transforming agriculture from a subsistence activity into a modern, industrial enterprise capable of producing surplus, supporting manufacturing, and driving broad-based economic growth.

He explained that industrialising agriculture does not mean replacing rural communities with factories, but rather empowering farmers with technology, skills, infrastructure, and market access to raise productivity and incomes.

According to Professor Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, Nigeria’s low agricultural productivity reflected deeper structural challenges, including weak education systems, limited skills, and inadequate investment in technology and infrastructure.

He noted that countries that successfully transitioned from low-income to middle-income status did so by modernising agriculture alongside industrial development, creating strong linkages between farms, processing industries, and markets.

Oyelaran-Oyeyinka highlighted stark yield disparities between Africa and Asia, noting that cereal yields across African countries remain less than a third of those achieved in East Asia.

This gap, he said, explains why African economies struggle to compete globally and why industrialisation efforts have stalled.

Professor Oyelaran-Oyeyinka outlined key pillars of agricultural industrialisation, including mechanisation, value addition, integrated supply chains, access to finance, improved seed systems, and targeted investment in human and technological capabilities.

He stressed that farms must be treated as “factories without roofs,” capable of feeding into agro-processing, manufacturing, and export industries.

The visiting professor at The Open University in Milton Keynes said the economic benefits of such a transformation would be far-reaching, including reduced dependence on oil, large-scale job creation, significant foreign exchange savings, and stronger national food security.

Drawing lessons from Vietnam, he described how deliberate agricultural modernisation helped transform the Southeast Asian country from a food importer into one of the world’s leading exporters of rice, coffee, cashew, and seafood.

Vietnam’s agribusiness exports, he said, now generate tens of billions of dollars annually and underpin the country’s wider industrial success.

He attributed Vietnam’s success to consistent policies, heavy investment in agro-processing, strong farmer–industry linkages, and the use of special economic zones to drive value addition and export competitiveness.

Oyelaran-Oyeyinka noted that similar models are emerging in Nigeria, including in Oyo State, but warned that they require reliable infrastructure, policy stability, and empowered governance to succeed.

The professor called on state governments to prioritise power, roads, and logistics, strengthen agricultural extension services, and create efficient special agro-industrial processing zones that attract major domestic and international investors.

He also urged the private sector to view agriculture as a profitable business frontier rather than a social obligation, noting that Nigeria’s future prosperity depended less on oil and more on harnessing the productive potential of its land and people.

“We are a nation that can feed itself and others, yet we remain food-insecure and overly dependent on imports. This paradox is holding back our economy.”

“Industrialising agriculture does not erase our rural roots; it transforms them into engines of productivity, wealth creation and national development.”

“Subsistence agriculture is both a cause and a consequence of technological backwardness, and no country has reached middle-income status without first modernising its agriculture.”

“A farm must be treated as a factory without a roof, connected to processing, logistics, finance and markets. Vietnam shows that agricultural transformation is not accidental; it is the result of deliberate policies that link farmers to industry and global markets.”

“The seeds of Nigeria’s prosperity are not buried in oil wells; they are sown in the fertile soils of our ecological zones,” he said.

Lady Usendi

Business

Cashew Industry Can Generate $10bn Annually- Association

Published

1 day ago

January 9, 2026

The Tide

The President of the National Cashew Association of Nigeria (NCAN), Dr Ojo Ajanaku, has said Nigeria could earn $10 billion annually from cashew production, with $3 billion coming from cashew sales alone.

Ajanaku made this known during a press conference organised ahead of the 4th National Cashew Day, scheduled to hold from Jan. 22 to Jan. 24 in Abuja, with the the theme: “Unlocking the Full Potential of Nigeria’s Cashew Industry”.

He said that poor export documentation and weak repatriation of proceeds were causing major losses to the Nigerian economy.

“A substantial volume of cashew exported from Nigeria leaves the country without proper export proceeds forms, as exporters allegedly avoid bringing earnings back into the country,” he said.

He said during the last export season alone, Nigeria reportedly exported over 400,000 tonnes of cashew valued at about $700 million.

Ajanaku noted that deliberate investments in production and processing could unlock far greater potentials.

“If Nigeria produces just two million tonnes of cashew annually, which is achievable in less than five years, and sells at an average of $1,500 per tonne, the country would earn about $3 billion yearly,” he said.

He added that beyond raw cashew exports, enormous value lies in processing and by-products such as Cashew Nut Shell Fluid (CNSF) and cashew cake, which are largely wasted locally.

“In Vietnam, cashew cake alone sells for about 95 cents per kilogram, while in Nigeria processors pay to dispose of it as waste,” he noted.

Ajanaku explained that full local processing of cashew and its by-products could generate not less than $10 billion annually for Nigeria while creating thousands of jobs across the value chain.

He stressed that Nigeria has the production capacity, while countries like Vietnam possess advanced processing technology.

The NCAN President further disclosed that the association is strengthening partnerships with key government institutions, including the Ministry of Finance, the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, NEXIM Bank, and other agencies to reposition the sector.

He added that a landmark Memorandum of Understanding has been signed between Nigeria and Vietnam to facilitate technology transfer and deepen cooperation in cashew processing.

He expressed optimism that with sustained government support and effective regulation, the cashew industry could become a major driver of economic growth, foreign exchange earnings, and industrial development in Nigeria.

“Producing states should be given priority. For example, Kogi State, which has the highest cashew production in the country, has no factory. A lot of potentials can come from Kogi State for the country,” he said.

Also speaking, NCAN National Secretary, Augustine Edieme, said strategic plans are being made to showcase Nigeria’s potentials during the 4th National Cashew Day, which he described as a key opportunity to attract bigger investments and investors into the industry.

“We are not just talking about the cashew seeds. We need to crack the fruit shell and discover the value in cashew shells. Industrialisation of the cashew industry is key to driving the Nigerian economy,” he said.

The representative of the Federation of Agricultural Commodity Associations of Nigeria (FACAN), Sunday Ojonugwa, pledged that FACAN would optimally support the cashew association to ensure the sector reaches its full potential.

Lady Usendi