Business

Economic Crisis: CBN Forecast Further Naira Fall In Jan

Published

3 years ago

December 28, 2020

Barely five days to the end of the year 2020, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), has disclosed that a survey carried out by its Statistics Department revealed that the Naira was expected to depreciate further in January, 2021.
The report, titled, ‘December 2020 Business Expectations Survey Report’, added that there might also be a steady rise in interest rate from December till the next six months.
The Naira witnessed a sharp fall in recent weeks, reaching its lowest on November 30, 2020, when it exchanged for N500/$1.
Since then, the Dollar has been hovering between N460 and N470.
As at last Friday, however, $1 exchanged for N465 in the parallel market.
Also, the Nigerian economy had on November 21 slid into its second recession in five years when the economy shrank again in the third quarter.
The recession is said to be the worst in 36 years, according to the data obtained from the World Bank.
The Federal Government and some economists had expressed optimism that the country would exit the recession in 2021.
Meanwhile, in the 11-page survey report, the CBN said it conducted the survey online from December 7 to 11, with a sample size of 1,050 businesses nationwide.
It noted that a response rate of 91.3 per cent was achieved and that the sample covered the agriculture/services, manufacturing, wholesale/retail trade and construction sectors.
It added that the respondent firms were made up of small, medium and large corporations covering both import-oriented and export-oriented businesses.
The report partly read, “Respondent firms expect the naira to depreciate in the current month and next month but appreciate in the next two months and the next six months.
“Inflation level is expected to rise in the next six and 12 months as firms expect the average inflation rate in the next six months and the next 12 months to stand at 13.24 and 14.51 per cent, while borrowing rate is expected to rise in the current month, next month, next two months and the next six months with indices of 19.2, 14.9, 14.7 and 14.3 points.”
In the survey, respondent firms expressed pessimism on the macro economy, while their outlook on the volume of business activities, average capacity utilisation, the volume of total order and financial condition (working capital) were positive.
The CBN stated that respondent firms identified insufficient power supply, unfavourable economic climate, competition, high interest rates, unclear economic laws, financial problems, unfavourable political climate, access to credit, insufficient demand, lack of equipment, lack of materials input, and labour problems as major factors constraining business activities in December, 2020.
In a separate development, the apex bank in a communiqué number 133 of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on November 23 and 24 and signed by the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele, said the aggregate domestic credit grew by 7.61 per cent in October, 2020, compared with 7.35 per cent in the previous month.
This, it said, was as a result of the bank’s policy on Loan-to-Deposit Ratio, supported by its interventions in the various sectors of the economy, adding that total bank credit grew in the banking industry by N290.13billion between the end of August and the middle of November.
The communiqué added, “Total gross credit by the banking industry stood at N19.54trillion as at November 13, 2020, compared with N19.33trillion at the end of August, 2020, an increase of N290.13billion.
“When compared with N15.56trillion at the commencement of the LDR policy in May, 2019, total gross credit increased by N3.97trillion, these loans were granted mainly to manufacturing (N738billion), general commerce (N874billion), agric and forestry (N301billion), construction (N291billion), and ICT (N231billion), just to mention a few.”
The communiqué noted further that the MPC observed the gradual improvement in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices, which rose to 50.2 and 47.6 index points respectively, in November, 2020, compared with 49.4 and 46.8 index points in October, 2020.
It added, “This development signposts an increase in economic activities, driven by growth in new orders, improved supply delivery time, rising production levels and new export orders. The employment level index component of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs also improved in November, 2020 to 47.3 index points and 46.7 index points, respectively, compared with 46.0 index points and 44.2 index points in October, 2020.
“The committee, however, noted the likely downside risk to growth of the recent unrest in the country, warning that this may adversely impact economic recovery in the near term.”
Meanwhile, on respondents’ opinion over the control of inflation, the CBN report said the respondents decried the poor management of inflation by the government.
It said, “Respondent firms expressed dissatisfaction with the management of inflation by the government, with a negative net satisfaction index -33.5 in December, 2020.”
On the business outlook, the report showed that at -15.2 index points, the overall confidence index on the macro economy was pessimistic in December, 2020 while respondents were optimistic in their outlook for the month of January, 2021 with a confidence index of 29.4.
The respondents also expressed optimism in the overall business outlook for February and June, 2021 as shown in a greater confidence of the economy with 39.2 and 55.2 index points, respectively.
It added, “The pessimism on the macro economy in the current month was driven by the opinion of respondents from agriculture/services (-10.4 points), wholesale/retail trade sectors (-1.7), construction (-1.6 points) and manufacturing sectors (-1.6 points).
“The major drivers of optimism for next month were agriculture/services (16.8 points) and manufacturing sectors (10.3 points). Further analysis revealed that businesses that were neither import and export-oriented (-9.5 points), both import and export-oriented (-3.4 points), importers (-2.0 points) and exporters (-0.2 points), drove the negative business outlook for the month under review.”
In terms of employment and expansion plans, the report said respondent firms’ opinion on the volume of business activities indicated a favourable business outlook for January and February, 2021, with indices of 47.7 and 55.0, respectively.
It added, “Businesses also hope to employ in January and February, 2021 as the outlook was positive at 18.5 and 21.5 index points, respectively.
“The breakdown by sector showed that the agric/services sector with (20.5 points) has the highest prospect for employment in the next month, followed by construction sector with an index of 17.9 points, manufacturing sector (16.7 points) and wholesale/retail trade (13.4 points).
“Respondents were also optimistic about the volume of business activities and employment outlook index in the next six months as all indices were positive. An analysis of businesses with expansion plans in January showed that the agric/services sector and construction sector have the highest disposition to expand with 52.9 index points each.”

Business

Fuel Scarcity: IPMAN threatens shutdown over bridging claims

Published

3 days ago

May 3, 2024

The Tide

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) Depot Chairmen Forum, has exonerated its members from the current fuel scarcity in the country.

According to IPMAN, this is caused by its inability to source petroleum products.

The IPMAN Depot Chairmen Forum also threatened to withdraw its services over non-payment of N200 billion bridging claims by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to its members, since 2022.

Alhaji Yahaya Alhassan, the Chairman, of the Forum said this while briefing newsmen in Abuja, yesterday.

Alhassan said the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) was the sole importer of the product, but the marketers could not source products from NNPC Ltd. deport, rather from the private depots at high rate.

“We cannot buy fuel from the private depots at N950 and transport the product from Lagos to the North and other parts of the country with N2 million and still sell it at N900 or N1, 000.

“It is expedient for us to state that we are more pained by the non-availability of petroleum products in the country, which has given rise to another round of untold hardship for Nigerians.

“Contrary to claims that IPMAN members are hoarding Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) known as fuel, we would like to categorically state that PMS scarcity is wholly triggered by inability to get fuel from NNPC and not IPMAN,’’ he said.

Meanwhile, the NNPC Ltd. Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Olufemi Soneye said the disruption was due to logistical issues which had since been resolved.

“We currently have an availability of products exceeding 1.5 billion litres, which can last for at least 30 days. Unfortunately, we experienced a three-day disruption in distribution due to logistical issues, which has since been resolved.

“However, as you know, overcoming such disruptions typically requires double the amount of time to return to normal operations.

“Some folks are taking advantage of this situation to maximise profits. Thankfully, product scarcity has been minimal lately, but these folks might be exploiting the situation for unwarranted gain,’’ Soneye said.

He however, said the lines would clear out soon.

On the non-payment of bridging claims, the IPMAN forum said it was distressed and depressed by the laidback attitude of the NMDPRA towards the survival its member’s businesses, arising from its refusal in paying the claims.

“It is with deep frustration that we have assembled here today as the IPMAN Depot Chairmen Forum. It is also disheartening to note that some of our members have completely shut down businesses and retrenched employees.

“As businessmen and women, our members acquired bank loans to keep their fuel retail outlets running on a daily basis across the nooks and crannies of Nigeria in order to serve the teeming population of Nigerians,’’ Alhassan said.

He recalled that Sen. Heineken Lokpobiri, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Oil), at a stakeholders meeting in February mandated the NMDPRA management to clear the entire debt in 40 days.

“However, today, we have crossed the 40 days’ time lapse given to the NMDPRA to clear the debt, and it is shameful to state that only the paltry sum of N13 billion has been paid, ignoring minister’s directive.

“We are not happy with the indiscriminate increment in the issuance and renewal of Sales and Storage Licence, by the NMDPRA, and the subsequent delays in acquiring the licence, which our members are recently subjected to.

“We are also calling on President Bola Tinubu to look into this unwholesome figure which is highly detrimental to our business and reverse it forthwith, as it is bound to impact negatively on the masses.

“We are poised to take far reaching decisions that may cripple the supply and sales of petroleum products across Nigeria if our demands are not met within the shortest period of time.

“We are collectively prepared to withdraw our services, shut down every single outlet, and suspend lifting of products forthwith till our demands are fully met, and the consequences will be terrible.

“We call on our members to however remain resolute and law abiding, even as we draw close to the immediate ultimatum for our demands to be met by the NMDPRA,’’ the chairman said.

Reacting to the IPMAN’s claims, the Acting Head, Corporate Communications, NMDPRA, Seiyefa Osanebi said the bridging claims payment was ongoing.

“The bridging claims payment is always an ongoing process,” she said.

Maritime

Shippers’ Council Registers 160 Port Operators

Published

7 days ago

April 29, 2024

The Tide

The Nigerian Shippers Council (NSC) says it has registered 160 Port stakeholders into its Regulated Port Service Provider and Users platform since the initiative began in 2023.
Executive Secretary, NSC, Mr Pius Akutah, made the disclosure on the sideline of a sensitisation programme by the commission for port operators in Lagos, with the theme, “Regulated Port Service Provider and Users”.
Represented by the Director, Consumer Affairs, Chief Cajetan Agu, Akutah emphasised the significance of the programme for stakeholders.
He said the sensitisation programme was the second edition after its commencement during the last quarter of 2023.
The Secretary said the 160 registered port operators consist of agencies, terminal operators, shipping companies, individual port users as well as service providers.
“We invited the ports stakeholders for enlightening them on the processes for online registration of Regulated Port Service Provider and Users.
“We have demonstrated to them how to register and how to make payment and we were able to present before them the various categories of the registration.
“The rate of payment is also in the registration. The payment of each group depends on the operation. A shipper pays N30,000, terminal operators and shipping companies pay N300,000, truckers also pay N30,000, while some pay N50,000 and N100,000.
“The Council was able to intimate them on the benefits, because port users benefit more as we help to interface on reducing port charges from time to time”, Akutah said.
He said that there was a need to continue to work with port operators to stop delays and eliminate high costs to make the port efficient.
Also speaking, the Deputy Director, Stakeholders, Service, NSC, Mr Celestine Akujobi, said “the sensitisation exercise was important for the council to enable us bring all the port stakeholders together”.
According to him, this is to avoid challenges during the implementation of the council’s responsibilities.
“By the time we introduce sanctions on defaulters, no operators will complain that he or she is not aware of the registration.
“I’m happy with the turnout of this sensitisation. This shows that the operators are well informed of the statutory friction of the council as the port regulator.
“The final implementation will commence as soon as we discover that all the operators have keyed into the portal.
“We are engaging other ports across the country and we’re hopeful that before the last quater of 2024, the council will implement sanctions on defaulting operators”, Akujobi said.
Earlier, Vice Chairman, National Association of Government Approved Freight Forwards (NAGAFF), Dr Ifeanyi Emoh, said port challenges were enormous, adding that they originated from some of the government agencies.

Emoh urged the council to look into regulating other government agencies, so that there could be a window through which they can collect port charges collectively instead of indiscriminately.

By: Chinedu Wosu