Oil & Energy

Oil Demand to Rise Through 2032 as Energy Transition Stalls

Published

4 months ago

November 10, 2025

Global demand for crude oil is going to continue on an upward trajectory until at least 2032, Wood Mackenzie has warned in a new report that says the world is way off track in meeting its Paris Agreement goals. The drivers: transport and petrochemicals.

The report will not come as a surprise to those following energy development closely over the past five years or so, as efforts to put the world—or at least parts of it—on the path to an energy system whose emissions of carbon dioxide are equal to the emissions it absorbs and stores first intensified and then slowed down. Meanwhile, despite trillions of dollars being spent on that transition, oil, coal, and natural gas continue to satisfy around 80% of the world’s primary energy needs.

“Fossil fuels are widely available, cost-competitive and deeply embedded in the energy system,” Wood Mackenzie said in its report. This might be a little puzzling in the context of frequently repeated claims that wind and solar power generation is no cheaper than generation from hydrocarbons and that over the long term, electric cars are cheaper than internal combustion engine vehicles.

It is worth remembering, however, that the cost of both power generation and vehicles can be calculated in different ways, yielding different results. For wind and solar, for instance, the preferred cost calculation is based on a metric dubbed levelized cost of energy, LCOE ignores a lot of the costs associated with electricity generated by wind or solar installations by excluding, among others, the cost of backup generation capacity that kicks in when the wind dies down or the suns sets—and that cost of backup capacity keeps going higher because hydrocarbon generators are penalized by being made to pay for their carbon emissions.

This is, put simply, why the transition has slowed down recently and the ultimate net-zero target remains far from sight. This is also why oil, gas, and coal remain cost-competitive even with all the carbon levies that transition-enthusiastic governments are throwing at the energy industry. Wood Mackenzie remains hopeful, however, outlining several scenarios for the future. The only ones ending with a net-zero energy system, however, require a massive increase in the money spent on decarbonizing the global economy.

Global investment needs to rise to $4.3 trillion per year over the period to 2060, Wood Makenzie said in its report, adding the money would go towards funding projects in the power generation, grid, upstream, critical minerals, and “new technologies” fields. “Achievable, but only with a global alignment for scaling investment that is currently lacking,” the consultancy warned.

Theoretically, a lot of things may look achievable from where Wood Mackenzie stands. In practice, it has been a major challenge to get governments from different parts of the world to agree on a transition at all. And even after they agreed, many are pursuing energy security rather than a transition, as evidenced by the fact that it is not just oil and gas demand growing: coal demand is growing as well, even though there are lower-emission alternatives to what is widely known as the dirtiest hydrocarbon of all. In fact, coal demand hit an all-time high last year, despite years of decarbonization efforts, the massive surge in wind and solar installations and the record sales of electric cars—and it might break this record this year.

Because of this real-life context, Wood Mackenzie described a base-case scenario that has hydrocarbons continue to cover the bulk of global energy demand over the observable future, with wind and solar only going towards covering additional, new demand. Yet in fairness, they cannot cover all the incremental demand as evidenced by the rush to build new baseload generation and extend the life of existing power plants as demand for electricity from data centers soars. In other words, oil, gas, and coal demand growth may remain a fixture of the global energy system for even longer than 2032.

Some authors in the energy space have called this scenario an energy addition instead of an energy transition. Alternative sources of energy have their place in the broader system but they cannot replace hydrocarbons because of their shortcomings that are difficult to overcome. In the case of wind and solar, this is, of course, weather dependence and the output variability this dependence causes. There is also the matter of actual cost, which is considerably higher than the cost of generating electricity from coal and natural gas when all costs are taken into account, including the cost of battery storage that is touted as the ultimate solution to the weather-dependence and variability problem.

In short, the energy transition is not happening as planned because it could not happen as planned unless countries spend most of their money singularly on transition-related activities. By the way, the European Union has been trying to do just that in the past three years—and failing so far. The only thing that transition advocates have to show for their effort is energy cost inflation and less reliable electricity supply—except in China where wind and solar are solidly backed up with massive coal capacity.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

Oil & Energy

The Tofu Brine Battery That Could End the Lithium Era

Published

2 weeks ago

March 2, 2026

The Tide

Researchers in Hong Kong and China have developed a new form of battery that is more eco-friendly and longer lasting than lithium ion batteries – and it runs on tofu brine. The new water battery is still in research phases, but if the technology proves to be scalable enough to hit commercial markets, it could be a game-changer for the energy and tech sectors.

“Compared with current aqueous battery systems … our system delivers exceptional long-term cycling stability and environmental friendliness under neutral conditions,” the research team, composed of scientists from the City University of Hong Kong and Southern University of Science and Technology in Shenzhen, Guangdong, said in a paper published this month in Nature Communications.

The researchers found that their battery model can be recharged over 120,000 times. “At over a hundred thousand cycles, this could mean a single water-based battery could last at least a decade or so,” states a recent report on the breakthrough from Interesting Engineering. “For applications like grid storage (solar farms, wind balancing), that’s extremely valuable,” the article went on to say.

This kind of lifespan would represent a drastic improvement over the battery technologies that dominate today’s market. Lithium-ion batteries degrade after between 1,000 and 3,000 charge cycles. This could prove revolutionary, as finding an alternative to lithium-ion batteries to power rechargeable devices is a major priority for Big Tech and the global energy sector.

Moreover, these tofu-brine batteries could prove safer and more environmentally friendly than lithium-ion batteries. According to the study authors, the full cells are environmentally benign and nontoxic and can be directly discarded to environments according to various standards.” Water based (also called aqueous) batteries can also potentially be cheap to produce as they rely on ingredients that are less rare in addition to being less hazardous.

Lithium is environmentally harmful to extract, prone to fires, and its supply chains are geopolitically fraught. Currently, China alone controls half of the global lithium market, and is rapidly increasing its stake. In 2024, more than eight in ten battery cells on the planet were made in China. This means that finding a battery model that can compete with lithium-ion batteries in applications like grid-scale energy storage and electric vehicles would have revolutionary implications for global markets.

Researchers around the world have been racing to develop battery models that could diversify the market and make it more competitive and resilient. These models range widely in size, components, and application, with models currently under development for next-gen sodium-ion batteries, quantum batteries, nuclear batteries, and even sand and dirt batteries.

Of course, the irony is that the leading alternatives to lithium-ion batteries are also being developed in Chinese labs. If this new tofu-brine battery proves scalable and applicable outside of a laboratory environment, it could just be another step toward Beijing’s goal of near-total domination of clean energy technology value chains and status as the world’s first and premiere ‘electro-state.’

China’s extreme advantage in global battery making gives it a major point of leverage in global economies as the world continues to electrify at a rapid pace. It is estimated that European demand for lithium in batteries will reach kilo tonnes (thousands of tonnes) of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent by next year, and North American demand will reach 250 kit LCE. it’s all but certain that the vast majority of that demand will be supplied by China.

Other nations are aware of the risk of this dependency, and are taking pains to protect and promote domestic battery manufacturing, but these efforts may be too little, too late. “For globally competitive battery manufacturing industries to emerge outside of Asia over the next ten years, companies will need to do far more than ensure regulatory compliance,” summarizes a McKinsey & Company report released in January. “Challenges will need to be overcome on multiple fronts spanning supply chains, talent management, operations and technology.”

By: Haley Zaremba

Oil & Energy

REA TO Spend N100bn On Hybrid Mini-grids For Govt Agencies In 2026

Published

2 weeks ago

March 2, 2026

The Tide

The Rural Electrification Agency (REA) says it will spend N100 billion in 2026 to deploy hybrid mini-grids for government agencies within and outside Abuja.

The Managing Directors, REA, Abba Aliyu, disclosed this while addressing newsmen on the sidelines of the 2026 budget defence session organised by the House Committee on Rural Electrification in Abuja, Friday.

The approved funds form part of the National Public Sector Solarisation programme, a component of the agency’s broader N170 billion budget proposal for 2026.

The initiative is designed to improve electricity reliability for public institutions while reducing operational costs and easing pressure on the national grid.

Aliyu explained that the agency’s total proposed budget for 2026 stands at N170 billion, with N100 billion of the amount dedicated specifically to the solarisation initiative targeting government agencies.

He said the hybrid mini-grid systems combine solar power with complementary energy sources to ensure an uninterrupted electricity supply.

“The total budget size for 2026 operations is N170 billion, out of which N100 billion had been approved for National Public Sector Solarisation.

“The managing director said that the N100 billion targets provision of hybrid mini-grid for government agencies within and outside Abuja”,

He stated that the intervention covers agencies in the Federal Capital Territory as well as other parts of the country with the aim of reducing energy costs for government operations while improving electricity reliability.

Aliyu cited the National Hospital in Abuja as an example where similar infrastructure had been deployed to ensure stable power and cut operational expenses.He added that beyond the Solarisation

programme, the 2026 budget includes over 500 electrification projects nationwide, covering grid extensions for nearby communities, deployment of transformers, mini-grids for agrarian and cottage-industry clusters, and solar home systems for sparsely populated areas.

Recall that earlier in February 2026, REA signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to deploy solar power systems to 15 public institutions across Nigeria.

The project will be implemented under the Regional Off-Grid Electricity Access Project (ROGEAP), a World Bank-supported initiative aimed at expanding off-grid electricity access across West Africa and the Sahel.

ECOWAS will provide a $700,000 grant to fund the installation of solar photovoltaic systems in selected rural health centres and schools in the Federal Capital Territory, Niger, and Nasarawa States.

The initiative marked the formal commencement of Nigeria’s pilot implementation phase under ROGEAP, with REA serving as the technical and financial implementing agency.

through interconnected mini-grids.

Oil & Energy

PIA: TotalEnergies Transfers OLO Oilfield HCDT Obligation To Aradel ……Says HCDT Enabled Completion of 100 Projects In 2 years

Published

2 weeks ago

March 2, 2026

The Tide

Pursuant of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), TotalEnergies has handed over the OLO Oilfield Host Community Development Trust (HCDT) to Aradel Holdings Plc.

This transition follows Aradel’s earlier acquisition of the Olo and Olo West marginal fields (formerly part of OML 58) from the TotalEnergies/NNPCL Joint Venture, and formally completes the transfer of settlor responsibilities under the trust, ensuring that community development work already underway continues without interruption.

Speaking at the Hand-Over ceremony in Abuja, weekend, the Chief Executive, Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said the development trust remains intact, its governance structure preserved and its statutory funding obligations transitioning seamlessly to the new settlor as envisioned by the PIA.

Represented by the Executive Commissioner, for Health, Safety, Environment, and Community (HSEC), John Tonlagha, Eyesan explained that the Commission would continue to provide firm and consistent oversight to ensure full compliance with the PIA for the benefit of both the communities and the industry.

Also speaking, the General Manager, Community Affairs, Projects and Development, TotalEnergies, Dornu Kogam, urged Aradel Holdings to maintain the same transparent, community-centered approach throughout project completion.

TotalEnergies further confirmed that all obligations up to the date of transfer have been fully met, and no outstanding liabilities remain adding that Aradel formally assumes full responsibility going forward, with the Commission’s regulatory consent granted.

In his remarks, the Community Affairs Manager, Aradel Holdings Plc, Blessyn Okpowo, affirmed the company’s commitment to honouring all PIA obligations and continuing Total Energies’ community engagement approach.“We want to say that in line with the PIA, we will honour commitments and duties required of the settlor and we want to work very smoothly with the way TotalEnergies has worked with them,” he stated.

The Chairman, Board of Trustees, OLO host community, Wales Godwin, commended the HCDT’s delivery of 118 projects out of 160 planned.

He recognised the Commission’s role in approving the Community Development Plan (CDP) before project start, underscoring regulatory excellence.The parties noted that between 2023 and 2025, the trust has enabled the completion of more than 100 community projects, spanning water supply, electricity, road infrastructure, education, and healthcare with a further 40 projects currently ongoing.