Oil & Energy
Oil Demand to Rise Through 2032 as Energy Transition Stalls
Global demand for crude oil is going to continue on an upward trajectory until at least 2032, Wood Mackenzie has warned in a new report that says the world is way off track in meeting its Paris Agreement goals. The drivers: transport and petrochemicals.
The report will not come as a surprise to those following energy development closely over the past five years or so, as efforts to put the world—or at least parts of it—on the path to an energy system whose emissions of carbon dioxide are equal to the emissions it absorbs and stores first intensified and then slowed down. Meanwhile, despite trillions of dollars being spent on that transition, oil, coal, and natural gas continue to satisfy around 80% of the world’s primary energy needs.
“Fossil fuels are widely available, cost-competitive and deeply embedded in the energy system,” Wood Mackenzie said in its report. This might be a little puzzling in the context of frequently repeated claims that wind and solar power generation is no cheaper than generation from hydrocarbons and that over the long term, electric cars are cheaper than internal combustion engine vehicles.
It is worth remembering, however, that the cost of both power generation and vehicles can be calculated in different ways, yielding different results. For wind and solar, for instance, the preferred cost calculation is based on a metric dubbed levelized cost of energy, LCOE ignores a lot of the costs associated with electricity generated by wind or solar installations by excluding, among others, the cost of backup generation capacity that kicks in when the wind dies down or the suns sets—and that cost of backup capacity keeps going higher because hydrocarbon generators are penalized by being made to pay for their carbon emissions.
This is, put simply, why the transition has slowed down recently and the ultimate net-zero target remains far from sight. This is also why oil, gas, and coal remain cost-competitive even with all the carbon levies that transition-enthusiastic governments are throwing at the energy industry. Wood Mackenzie remains hopeful, however, outlining several scenarios for the future. The only ones ending with a net-zero energy system, however, require a massive increase in the money spent on decarbonizing the global economy.
Global investment needs to rise to $4.3 trillion per year over the period to 2060, Wood Makenzie said in its report, adding the money would go towards funding projects in the power generation, grid, upstream, critical minerals, and “new technologies” fields. “Achievable, but only with a global alignment for scaling investment that is currently lacking,” the consultancy warned.
Theoretically, a lot of things may look achievable from where Wood Mackenzie stands. In practice, it has been a major challenge to get governments from different parts of the world to agree on a transition at all. And even after they agreed, many are pursuing energy security rather than a transition, as evidenced by the fact that it is not just oil and gas demand growing: coal demand is growing as well, even though there are lower-emission alternatives to what is widely known as the dirtiest hydrocarbon of all. In fact, coal demand hit an all-time high last year, despite years of decarbonization efforts, the massive surge in wind and solar installations and the record sales of electric cars—and it might break this record this year.
Because of this real-life context, Wood Mackenzie described a base-case scenario that has hydrocarbons continue to cover the bulk of global energy demand over the observable future, with wind and solar only going towards covering additional, new demand. Yet in fairness, they cannot cover all the incremental demand as evidenced by the rush to build new baseload generation and extend the life of existing power plants as demand for electricity from data centers soars. In other words, oil, gas, and coal demand growth may remain a fixture of the global energy system for even longer than 2032.
Some authors in the energy space have called this scenario an energy addition instead of an energy transition. Alternative sources of energy have their place in the broader system but they cannot replace hydrocarbons because of their shortcomings that are difficult to overcome. In the case of wind and solar, this is, of course, weather dependence and the output variability this dependence causes. There is also the matter of actual cost, which is considerably higher than the cost of generating electricity from coal and natural gas when all costs are taken into account, including the cost of battery storage that is touted as the ultimate solution to the weather-dependence and variability problem.
In short, the energy transition is not happening as planned because it could not happen as planned unless countries spend most of their money singularly on transition-related activities. By the way, the European Union has been trying to do just that in the past three years—and failing so far. The only thing that transition advocates have to show for their effort is energy cost inflation and less reliable electricity supply—except in China where wind and solar are solidly backed up with massive coal capacity.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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Oil & Energy
NCDMB Unveils $100m Equity Investment Scheme, Says Nigerian Content Hits 61% In 2025 ………As Board Plans Technology Challenge, Research and Development Fair In 2026
The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB), has unveiled a $100 million Equity Investment Scheme among a raft of fresh initiatives to bolster indigenous capacity and participation in the oil and gas industry.
Executive Secretary of the Board, Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe, disclosed this while delivering his keynote address at the opening of the 14th Practical Nigerian Content Forum, held in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State.
Ogbe said the $100 million Equity Investment Scheme would provide equity financing to high-growth indigenous energy service companies, while diversifying the income base of the Nigerian Content Development Fund (NCDF).
In furtherance of the scheme, a memorandum of understanding (MOU) was signed at the event between Engr. Ogbe and the Managing Director of the Bank of Industry, Dr. Olasupo Olusi toward the management of the scheme, which is a new product of the Nigerian Content Intervention Fund (NCI Fund).
The NCDMB Scribe also announced that 61 per cent Nigerian Content level has already been attained in the oil and gas sector by the third quarter of 2025 from projects being monitored by the Board.
Ogbe further expressed the board’s readiness to onboard a new set of Project 100 Companies after the successful implementation of approved interventions relating to the first set of Project 100 Companies, launched in 2019, for which an exit plan is slated for April 2026.
The ‘Project 100 Companies’, TheTide learnt, is an initiative of the Ministry of Petroleum Resources and the NCDMB under which 100 indigenous companies in the oil and gas industry were nurtured and empowered to higher levels of competitiveness through capacity building and access to market opportunities.
The NCDMB helmsman also said the Board has concluded plans to launch its NCDMB Technology Challenge in the first quarter of 2026 and to hold a Research and Development Fair in the second quarter of 2026.
In addition to its ongoing initiatives, the board further stated that a review of its seven current guidelines would be undertaken between the first and second quarter of 2026.
“The Board has completed the framework for issuance of NCDF Compliance Certificate, an instrument to confirm that a company in the oil and gas industry has complied with the one per cent remittance obligations.
“The Certificate will become effective on Ist January 2026 and would be required to obtain key permits and approvals from the Board”, Ogbe said.
In his address, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Rt. Hon. Ekperikpe Ekpo, said the theme of the PNC Forum, “Securing Investments, Strengthening Local Content, and Scaling Energy Production,” captures Nigeria’s national priorities that guide interventions by the Board and his Ministry.
He insisted that investment remains the lifeblood of the energy sector, and that the Board and the Ministry were committed to providing stable policies, transparent processes, and market-driven incentives, to attract long-term capital, assuring that the ministry would continue to strengthen local capacity across fabrication, engineering, technology services, manufacturing of components, and research and development.
On his part, the Minster of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, noted with satisfaction that a decade-long stagnation in the oil and gas industry was overcame with the enactment of the long-delayed Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), 2021, and Presidential Directives issued by the Administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in March 2024.
He said Nigeria has regained investor-confidence as signalled by the recent surge in FIDs and the increase of oil rigs from 14 to over 60, with 40 currently in active service.
“Our investment climate now is globally competitive, our fiscal terms are globally competitive. Our policies must be seen to be consistent at all times. The Federal Government is prepared to support Nigerian Content and the oil and gas industry, but then, things have to be done responsibly., he said.
In a goodwill message, the Managing Director, BOI, Dr. Olasupo Olusi, said that the collaboration between the NCDMB and BOI marked a significant expansion of a longstanding relationship, while assuring that through the $100 million NCIF Equity Investment Fund, the Bank of Industry would deploy equity and quasi-equity capital to support high-potential Nigerian companies to complement traditional debt financing and strengthening access to the long-term risk capital required for scale, competitiveness, and value creation.
“With a single obligor limit of $5 million, the Fund is designed to catalyze multiple high-impact investments while maintaining strong governance and prudent risk management”, the BOI Managing Director said.
On her part, the Special Adviser to the President on Energy, Mrs. Olu A. Verheijen, commended the NCDMB for sustaining the PNC Forum, which she said, accelerates change, drives competitiveness, and pushes the industry toward global standards.
She urged stakeholders to remain intentional and not incidental about in-country value addition, as they chart the path toward building a resilient, competitive industrial base in Nigeria.
By; Ariwera Ibibo-Howells, Yenagoa
In the bid to revitalise the gas industry and stabilise power generation, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has authorised the settlement of N185 billion in long-standing debts owed to natural gas producers.
The N185 billion legacy government obligations to gas producers for past supplies had strained cash flow and hindered operations, discouraged further exploration and production, and reduced gas supply for power generation, thereby worsening Nigeria’s power shortages and unreliable electricity supply.
The payment, to be executed through a royalty-offset arrangement, is expected to restore confidence among domestic and international gas suppliers who have long expressed concern about persistent indebtedness in the sector.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, said the move, endorsed by the National Economic Council (NEC) headed by Vice President, Kashim Shettima, marked one of the most significant interventions in Nigeria’s energy sector in recent years.
In a statement issued by the his Spokesman, Louis Ibrahim, Ekpo described the approval as a “decisive step towards revitalising Nigeria’s gas sector and strengthening its power-generation capacity in a sustainable manner,”
While noting that the intervention aligned with the ‘Decade of Gas’ initiative, which aims to unlock more than 12 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) of gas supply by 2030, Ekpo said clearing the arrears would deliver wide-ranging benefits, beginning with restoring investor confidence in the sector.
According to him, settling the debts is crucial to rebuilding trust between the government and gas producers, many of whom have withheld or slowed new investments due to uncertainty over payments.
Ekpo explained that improved financial stability would help revive upstream activity by accelerating exploration and production, ultimately boosting Nigeria’s gas output adding that Increased gas supply would also boost power generation and ease the long-standing electricity shortages that continue to hinder businesses across the country.
The minister noted that these gains were expected to stimulate broader economic growth, as reliable energy underpins industrialisation, job creation and competitiveness.
In his intervention, Coordinating Director of the Decade of Gas Secretariat, Ed Ubong, said the approved plan to clear gas-to-power debts sends a powerful signal of commitment from the President to address structural weaknesses across the value chain.
“This decision underlines the federal government’s determination to clear legacy liabilities and give gas producers the confidence that supplies to power generation will be honoured. It could unlock stalled projects, revive investor interest and rebuild momentum behind Nigeria’s transition to a gas-driven economy,” Ubong said.
The global mining industry is undergoing a rapid digital transformation, driven by the dual pressures of the energy transition and increasingly complex extraction environments. A new market report projects the global Artificial Intelligence (AI) in mining market will nearly quadruple in value over the next seven years, reaching $9.93 billion by 2032.
This surge in adoption comes as miners face a “perfect storm” of challenges: declining ore grades, labor shortages, and an insatiable global appetite for the critical minerals required to power electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy grids.
According to data released this week, the market for AI in mining is valued at approximately $2.6 billion in 2025 and is expected to expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 21.1 percent through 2032.
While the mining sector has historically been viewed as slow to modernize, the need for efficiency is forcing a change. The integration of autonomous haulage systems, predictive maintenance analytics, and “digital twins”—virtual replicas of physical mine sites—is shifting from pilot projects to standard operational necessity.
The “Operations & Process Optimization” segment is currently the dominant application, expected to account for more than 35 percent of the market in 2025. This technology allows companies to squeeze higher yields out of lower-quality rock, a capability that is becoming essential as easily accessible high-grade deposits are depleted worldwide.
The driving force behind this investment is the global scramble for critical minerals. The report highlights that the metal mining segment held the largest market share in 2024, directly correlated to the demand for lithium, copper, cobalt, and nickel—the backbone of the green energy economy.
“Metal mining operations involve highly complex processes—from ore body modeling and exploration to drilling, blasting, grinding, and material movement,” the report notes.
“AI supports these functions through predictive analytics… enabling cost reduction and higher yield recovery.”
For Western nations, this technological pivot also holds geopolitical weight. With China currently dominating the processing of rare earth elements, Western mining majors are under pressure to ramp up domestic production and efficiency to secure supply chains for battery manufacturing and clean energy infrastructure.
Beyond productivity, the industry is leveraging AI to address its most persistent operational risk: safety. The “Safety, Security & Environmental” segment is projected to record the highest growth rate during the forecast period.
Mining remains one of the world’s most hazardous heavy industries. Companies are increasingly deploying AI-powered video analytics and real-time worker tracking to prevent accidents involving heavy machinery and to monitor for gas leaks or ventilation failures in underground operations.
Furthermore, stricter Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria from investors are pushing miners to adopt AI for environmental compliance. New tools allow operators to monitor tailings dams for stability, track emissions in real-time, and optimize water usage, ensuring that the intensifying race for minerals does not come at the cost of environmental stewardship.
Geographically, the Asia Pacific region commanded the largest share of the AI in mining market in 2024 and is expected to maintain the highest growth rate.
This dominance is underpinned by massive production volumes in China and Australia. Major industry players in the region, including BHP and Rio Tinto, have been early adopters of autonomous technologies. In Western Australia, for example, autonomous haulage trucks and drill rigs are already commonplace, moving millions of tons of iron ore with minimal human intervention.
China’s adoption is further accelerated by government support for “smart mining” initiatives aimed at modernizing its vast coal and mineral sectors to reduce fatalities and improve environmental performance.
As the world moves toward 2032, the “mine of the future” will likely bear little resemblance to the labor-intensive operations of the past. With generative AI now entering the sector to assist in complex mine planning and exploration, the industry is pivoting toward a model where data is as valuable as the ore itself. For energy markets, this efficiency is not just a bonus; it is a prerequisite for meeting the material demands of a decarbonized world.
By: Charles Kennedy