Oil & Energy

Oil Demand to Rise Through 2032 as Energy Transition Stalls

Published

6 hours ago

November 10, 2025

Global demand for crude oil is going to continue on an upward trajectory until at least 2032, Wood Mackenzie has warned in a new report that says the world is way off track in meeting its Paris Agreement goals. The drivers: transport and petrochemicals.

The report will not come as a surprise to those following energy development closely over the past five years or so, as efforts to put the world—or at least parts of it—on the path to an energy system whose emissions of carbon dioxide are equal to the emissions it absorbs and stores first intensified and then slowed down. Meanwhile, despite trillions of dollars being spent on that transition, oil, coal, and natural gas continue to satisfy around 80% of the world’s primary energy needs.

“Fossil fuels are widely available, cost-competitive and deeply embedded in the energy system,” Wood Mackenzie said in its report. This might be a little puzzling in the context of frequently repeated claims that wind and solar power generation is no cheaper than generation from hydrocarbons and that over the long term, electric cars are cheaper than internal combustion engine vehicles.

It is worth remembering, however, that the cost of both power generation and vehicles can be calculated in different ways, yielding different results. For wind and solar, for instance, the preferred cost calculation is based on a metric dubbed levelized cost of energy, LCOE ignores a lot of the costs associated with electricity generated by wind or solar installations by excluding, among others, the cost of backup generation capacity that kicks in when the wind dies down or the suns sets—and that cost of backup capacity keeps going higher because hydrocarbon generators are penalized by being made to pay for their carbon emissions.

This is, put simply, why the transition has slowed down recently and the ultimate net-zero target remains far from sight. This is also why oil, gas, and coal remain cost-competitive even with all the carbon levies that transition-enthusiastic governments are throwing at the energy industry. Wood Mackenzie remains hopeful, however, outlining several scenarios for the future. The only ones ending with a net-zero energy system, however, require a massive increase in the money spent on decarbonizing the global economy.

Global investment needs to rise to $4.3 trillion per year over the period to 2060, Wood Makenzie said in its report, adding the money would go towards funding projects in the power generation, grid, upstream, critical minerals, and “new technologies” fields. “Achievable, but only with a global alignment for scaling investment that is currently lacking,” the consultancy warned.

Theoretically, a lot of things may look achievable from where Wood Mackenzie stands. In practice, it has been a major challenge to get governments from different parts of the world to agree on a transition at all. And even after they agreed, many are pursuing energy security rather than a transition, as evidenced by the fact that it is not just oil and gas demand growing: coal demand is growing as well, even though there are lower-emission alternatives to what is widely known as the dirtiest hydrocarbon of all. In fact, coal demand hit an all-time high last year, despite years of decarbonization efforts, the massive surge in wind and solar installations and the record sales of electric cars—and it might break this record this year.

Because of this real-life context, Wood Mackenzie described a base-case scenario that has hydrocarbons continue to cover the bulk of global energy demand over the observable future, with wind and solar only going towards covering additional, new demand. Yet in fairness, they cannot cover all the incremental demand as evidenced by the rush to build new baseload generation and extend the life of existing power plants as demand for electricity from data centers soars. In other words, oil, gas, and coal demand growth may remain a fixture of the global energy system for even longer than 2032.

Some authors in the energy space have called this scenario an energy addition instead of an energy transition. Alternative sources of energy have their place in the broader system but they cannot replace hydrocarbons because of their shortcomings that are difficult to overcome. In the case of wind and solar, this is, of course, weather dependence and the output variability this dependence causes. There is also the matter of actual cost, which is considerably higher than the cost of generating electricity from coal and natural gas when all costs are taken into account, including the cost of battery storage that is touted as the ultimate solution to the weather-dependence and variability problem.

In short, the energy transition is not happening as planned because it could not happen as planned unless countries spend most of their money singularly on transition-related activities. By the way, the European Union has been trying to do just that in the past three years—and failing so far. The only thing that transition advocates have to show for their effort is energy cost inflation and less reliable electricity supply—except in China where wind and solar are solidly backed up with massive coal capacity.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

Oil & Energy

AEDC Confirms Workforce Shake-up …..Says It’ll Ensure Better Service Delivery

Published

6 hours ago

November 10, 2025

The Tide

The Abuja Electricity Distribution Company(AEDC) has announced a major restructuring exercise as part of efforts to reposition the utility firm for improved service delivery, operational excellence, and stronger customer focus.

In a statement issued by the AEDC management late last Thursday, the company said the move aligned with its ongoing corporate transformation strategy designed to make AEDC more agile, innovative, and customer-centric.

As part of the restructuring, the company said it had promoted high-performing employees, released retiring staff, and disengaged others whose performance fell below expected standards.

It added that it has also begun implementing a comprehensive employee development and customer management plan to strengthen its service delivery framework.

“In line with its corporate transformation strategy, Abuja Electricity Distribution Company has announced a restructuring exercise aimed at delivering improved services to its customers as well as enhanced operational efficiency and excellence.

“The restructuring is in line with our strategic direction to become a more responsive and efficient organisation, capable of delivering world-class service to our customers.

“As part of the transformation, the Company has promoted high-performing staff, released retiring employees and those performing below par, and has put in motion the implementation of a robust employee development and customer management plan aimed at driving AEDC’s customer-centric focus,” the company said.

AEDC noted that the reforms are part of its broader commitment to provide reliable, safe, and sustainable electricity to customers across its franchise areas, including the Federal Capital Territory and the states of Niger, Kogi, and Nasarawa.

The firm further pledged to continue investing in infrastructure upgrades, digital technologies, and operational innovations to improve service reliability and customer satisfaction.

“With a strong commitment to delighting its customers, AEDC continues to contribute to the growth and development of Nigeria’s energy sector through investments in infrastructure, innovative technologies, and sustainable practices.

“AEDC consistently seeks to improve the quality of life for its customers, promote efficient energy usage, and actively engage with its communities,” the statement added.

Oil & Energy

Economic Prosperity: OPEC Sues For Increase In Local Crude Oil Refining

Published

6 hours ago

November 10, 2025

The Tide

The Chairman of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Board of Governors, Ademola Adeyemi-Bero, has advised local oil refiners in Nigeria to increase in-country refining of crude, noting that value creation for crude oil will support economic growth and development.

Adeyemi- Bero who gave the urge at the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists Pre-Conference Workshop in Lagos, insisted the country must move away from decades of crude exports and focus on retaining value within the local economy.

He said, “We’ve been an oil and gas exporting country. We produced oil; once there was oil, we put it in a tank and sent it abroad. 40 or 50 years later, people blame Shell and others, but I don’t. They are businesses looking for feedstock for their industrialisation. If you give it to them, they’ll still take it.”

Adeyemi-Bero, who is also the Chief Executive Officer of First Exploration & Petroleum Development Company, said Nigeria had a responsibility to develop its energy resources locally and use them to drive industrial growth, rather than depend on foreign markets, adding that President Bola Tinubu would have returned fuel subsidies if the Dangote refinery had not been there to produce fuel locally.

”Just look at the impact the Dangote refinery has had on foreign exchange and gross domestic product growth. You can imagine what would have happened if that had occurred 50 years ago. If the president had said, ‘I’m cancelling subsidies, and I’m not going to allow multiple exchange rates.’ We didn’t have the option of having petroleum products in this country; I’m sure he would have changed his policies and gone back to subsidies. It’s as simple as that. Let’s not over-aggregate.

He continued, “If you go to Saudi Arabia today, if you go to the UAE, if you go to Qatar, if you go to Malaysia, if you go to Brazil, they are expanding the value chain and keeping it in their space. Now, one man built a refinery; we fought him, we argued with him. But the impact of that Dangote refinery on our GDP and foreign exchange is big.”

According to him, local refining and crude utilisation would also help stabilise the naira and strengthen the nation’s economy.

“If we can sell some oil in naira, let’s do it if it works for both parties. The strength of the naira is what it commands in trade. This is why nobody wants the naira outside this space, but the day you can pay for oil in naira because both parties agree, it strengthens the naira,” he said.

Adeyemi-Bero stressed that Nigeria must deliberately reduce its dependence on exports and focus on value creation to avoid future economic decline.

“We need to decline exports. All of us like to sell, but the person who will buy from us will be willing to buy at the right price. ‘I’m investing in dollars, so don’t come and buy in naira. If I invest in dollars, then pay me in dollars.’ But we could make that happen,” he stated.

Oil & Energy

Senate Seeks Mandate To Track, Trace, Recover Stolen Crude Oil Proceeds

Published

6 hours ago

November 10, 2025

The Tide

The Senate Ad-hoc Committee on Oil Theft and Sabotage, has sought for an expanded mandate to track, trace, and recover stolen crude oil proceeds both locally and internationally.

Chairman of the committee, Ned Nwoko, made the call while speaking with newsmen, on the progress made so far by the committee, in Abuja, last Thursday.

Nwoko who is also the Senator representing Delta North Senatorial District, said that forensic reviews show over S22b, S81b and S200b remained unaccounted for across different audit periods.

“This is a national call to action. Nigeria cannot afford to continue losing trillions to corruption, inefficiency, and criminal networks.

“I remain committed, alongside my colleagues, to ensuring accountability, recovery, and reform within the oil and gas sector.

Nwoko stated that the Committee had earlier presented its interim report before the senate saying “Our investigation has so far uncovered massive revenue losses amounting to over $300 billion in unaccounted crude oil proceeds over the years.

“This represents one of the most troubling cases of economic sabotage our nation has ever faced.

“We have made far-reaching recommendations to end this long-standing menace.

“There is need for strict enforcement of international crude oil measurement standards at all production and export points.

He urged the federal government to mandate the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) to deploy modern, tamper-proof measuring technology or return this function to the Department of Weights and Measures under the Ministry of Industry, Trade, and Investment.

The senator called for the deployment of advanced surveillance systems, including drones, to assist security agencies in combating oil theft.

He also called for the creation of a Special Court for Crude Oil Theft to ensure swift prosecution of offenders and their collaborators, saying it would also go a long way in tackling the challenge.

“We must also ensure the full implementation of the Host Communities Development Trust Fund under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) to empower local communities and reduce sabotage.

“Ceding abandoned oil wells to the NUPRC for allocation to modular refineries to support local production and job creation is also very vital in fighting the menace of oil theft and sabotage,” Nwoko further said.