Opinion
Zamfara, Like Rivers
As the judgment of the Supreme Court sacking all elected officials of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Zamfara State in the 2019 general election assumes the airs of welcome uniqueness in some quarters, the development has continued to generate negative echoes in others.
From whichever angle it is viewed, there are clear signs that the conduct of party primaries across all political parties in the country will never be business as usual. Following the judgment, the imposition of candidates for elections by political parties, identified as one of the major challenges in the Nigerian democratic process, seems to be over.
The judgment proclaimed “wasted” all votes garnered by the APC in the state. The court’s pronouncement is clear in words and implication: the ruling party was never on the ballot. Therefore, the PDP was declared the winner on the basis of the total votes cast excluding those earned by the APC.
By all odds this judgment had put the APC and the affected members in a daze. Notwithstanding their claim describing the development as an act of God, it was a bitter pill they had to swallow. But have politicians learned any lessons? Of course, Nigerian politicians are hard to deal with. Trust them, they must excogitate a way to cut corners in the next election circle.
What was the bone of contention in the Zamfara APC? It bordered on their party primaries which were characterised by gross irregularities. The entire process was said to be commandeered by the former governor, Abdulazeez Yari, who effectively sidelined the national working committee (NWC) of the APC and imposed his candidates on the party. No primaries held.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) intervened as part of its duty to ensure that political parties comply with guidelines for party primaries. Following the infraction, the electoral body resolved to deny the APC participation in the election.
However, a high court judgment reversed that decision and compelled INEC to relist the party on the ballot. The APC eventually took part in the election and won all elective positions available. But that was shortlived as the Court of Appeal in Sokoto State nullified the election of all the party’s candidates. Then the Supreme Court affirmed the appellate court’s decision lately.
The apex court’s ruling will indeed alter the complexion of party primaries in the country. Primaries all over are held to strengthen democratic practices. Through the process, political parties assume the opportunity to elect candidates to represent them in an election. But since the advent of democratic rule in 1999, politicians and their godfathers have not permitted free primaries.
Zamfara’s situation was similar to that of Rivers State. Because of the orchestrated exclusion of Senator Magnus Abe’s faction of the APC from the primaries, the party was barred by the court from fielding any candidate in the 2019 election. That decision stood firm and Rivers’ APC was excluded from the general election.
Every democratic governance requires a free and fair electoral process to advance; this is achieved through party primaries. Therefore, all activities of political parties in that regard should adhere to party guidelines and the Electoral Act. Nigerian politicians must rescue themselves from the depths of desperation which brings about obvious disregard for their own party guidelines.
Our nation will be greatly imperilled if this practice continues in full strength and intensity. It is sad that public service has become a new line of approach for the promotion of self-service while impunity is now a national ideology.
A distinctive characteristic or attribute of internal democracy is when candidates emerge from the process approved by the constitution of the party and the electoral law of our country. Anything aside that suggests some imposition which smacks off abnormality, foreclosing any room for democracy to mature.
When imposition prevails, credible persons will be scared stiff from politics and this will create a dearth of essential and distinguished participants in the political space. Then the quality of governance will be deplored. That is exactly what we are faced with now.
Zamfara and Rivers States provide a veritable example of what can befall a state when greed for absolute power and wealth overwhelms public interest. Fortuitously, the Supreme Court has promptly stepped in to redefine the boundaries in favour of due process and rule of law. It is a bitter lesson that will serve both politicians and public officers.
Arnold Alalibo
From all indications, Nigeria possesses enough human and material resources to become a true economic powerhouse in Africa. According to the National Population Commission (NPC, 2023), the country’s population has grown steadily within the last decade, presently standing at about 220 million people—mostly young, vibrant, and innovative. Nigeria also remains the sixth-largest oil producer in the world, with enormous reserves of gas, fertile agricultural land, and human capital.
Yet, despite this enormous potential, the country continues to grapple with underdevelopment, poverty, unemployment, and insecurity. Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, 2023) show that about 129 million Nigerians currently live below the poverty line. Most families can no longer afford basic necessities, even as the government continues to project a rosy economic picture.
The Subsidy Question
The removal of fuel subsidy in 2023 by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been one of the most controversial policy decisions in Nigeria’s recent history. According to the president, subsidy removal was designed to reduce fiscal burden, unify the foreign exchange rate, attract investment, curb inflation, and discourage excessive government borrowing.
While these objectives are theoretically sound, the reality for ordinary Nigerians has been severe hardship. Fuel prices more than tripled, transportation costs surged, and food inflation—already high—rose above 30% (NBS, 2023). The World Bank (2023) estimates that an additional 7.1 million Nigerians were pushed into poverty after subsidy removal.
A Critical Economic View
As an economist, I argue that the problem was not subsidy removal itself—which was inevitable—but the timing, sequencing, and structural gaps in Nigeria’s implementation.
- Structural Miscalculation
Nigeria’s four state-owned refineries remain nonfunctional. By removing subsidies without local refining capacity, the government exposed the economy to import-price pass-through effects—where global oil price shocks translate directly into domestic inflation. This was not just a timing issue but a fundamental policy miscalculation.
- Neglect of Social Safety Nets
Countries like Indonesia (2005) and Ghana (2005) removed subsidies successfully only after introducing cash transfers, transport vouchers, and food subsidies for the poor (World Bank, 2005). Nigeria, however, implemented removal abruptly, shifting the fiscal burden directly onto households without protection.
- Failure to Secure Food and Energy Alternatives
Fuel subsidy removal amplified existing weaknesses in agriculture and energy. Instead of sequencing reforms, government left Nigerians without refinery capacity, renewable energy alternatives, or mechanized agricultural productivity—all of which could have cushioned the shock.
Political and Public Concerns
Prominent leaders have echoed these concerns. Mr. Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, described the subsidy removal as “good but wrongly timed.” Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party also faulted the government’s hasty approach. Human rights activists like Obodoekwe Stive stressed that refineries should have been made functional first, to reduce the suffering of citizens.
This is not just political rhetoric—it reflects a widespread economic reality. When inflation climbs above 30%, when purchasing power collapses, and when households cannot meet basic needs, the promise of reform becomes overshadowed by social pain.
Broader Implications
The consequences of this policy are multidimensional:
- Inflationary Pressures – Food inflation above 30% has made nutrition unaffordable for many households.
- Rising Poverty – 7.1 million Nigerians have been newly pushed into poverty (World Bank, 2023).
- Middle-Class Erosion – Rising transport, rent, and healthcare costs are squeezing household incomes.
- Debt Concerns – Despite promises, government borrowing has continued, raising sustainability questions.
- Public Distrust – When government promises savings but citizens feel only pain, trust in leadership erodes.
In effect, subsidy removal without structural readiness has widened inequality and eroded social stability.
Missed Opportunities
Nigeria’s leaders had the chance to approach subsidy removal differently:
- Refinery Rehabilitation – Ensuring local refining to reduce exposure to global oil price shocks.
- Renewable Energy Investment – Diversifying energy through solar, hydro, and wind to reduce reliance on imported petroleum.
- Agricultural Productivity – Mechanization, irrigation, and smallholder financing could have boosted food supply and stabilized prices.
- Social Safety Nets – Conditional cash transfers, food vouchers, and transport subsidies could have protected the most vulnerable.
Instead, reform came abruptly, leaving citizens to absorb all the pain while waiting for theoretical long-term benefits.
Conclusion: Reform With a Human Face
Fuel subsidy removal was inevitable, but Nigeria’s approach has worsened hardship for millions. True reform must go beyond fiscal savings to protect citizens.
Economic policy is not judged only by its efficiency but by its humanity. A well-sequenced reform could have balanced fiscal responsibility with equity, ensuring that ordinary Nigerians were not crushed under the weight of sudden change.
Nigeria has the resources, population, and resilience to lead Africa’s economy. But leadership requires foresight. It requires policies that are inclusive, humane, and strategically sequenced.
Reform without equity is displacement of poverty, not development. If Nigeria truly seeks progress, its policies must wear a human face.
References
- National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). (2023). Poverty and Inequality Report. Abuja.
- National Population Commission (NPC). (2023). Population Estimates. Abuja.
- World Bank. (2023). Nigeria Development Update. Washington, DC.
- World Bank. (2005). Fuel Subsidy Reforms: Lessons from Indonesia and Ghana. Washington, DC.
- OPEC. (2023). Annual Statistical Bulletin. Vienna.
By: Amarachi Amaugo