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Nigeria Going Through Worst Unemployment Crisis -World Bank
Nigeria is currently going through one of its worst unemployment crises in recent times, a new report by the World Bank has stated.
The multilateral institution also noted that the socio-economic challenges facing Nigerians in the last 10 years have led to an astronomical increase in the number of citizens seeking asylum and refugee status in other countries.
This is as the World Bank, in a separate report, has estimated that about 4,000 Nigerian children were made orphans by the Covid-19 pandemic between March, 2020 and July, 2021.
The report, which expressed concern about the country’s rising unemployment situation, was published by the Washington-based institution with support from the Korea World Bank Partnership Facility (KWPF) and the Rapid Social Response (RSR) trust funds.
In the report titled, ‘Of Roads Less Travelled: Assessing the Potential for Migration to Provide Overseas Jobs for Nigeria’s Youth’, the World Bank further estimated that there were 2.1million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in Nigeria in 2020 alone.
World Bank, however, blamed a combination of rising unemployment, booming demographics, and unfulfilled aspirations as resulting in increasing pressure on young Nigerians to migrate in search of gainful employment overseas.
In addition, the Washington-based institution disclosed that the number of international migrants from Nigeria has increased threefold since 1990, growing from 446,806 in 1990 to 1,438,331 in 2019.
It explained that despite this trend, the share of international migrants as a proportion to Nigeria’s population has remained largely constant, increasingly slightly from 0.5 per cent in 1990 to 0.7 per cent in 2019.
According to the bank, recent rise in irregular migration notwithstanding, the share of international migrants in Nigeria’s population was much lower compared to the shares in Sub-Saharan Africa and globally.
The data showed that the number has risen by over 1,380 per cent in the years between 2010 and 2019, indicating that in comparison, the number of persons coming into Nigeria from outside has been relatively stagnant in the decade under consideration
“An important trend that is observed in the data is the rise in the number of refugees and asylum seekers from Nigeria. The share of refugees and asylum seekers from Nigeria has increased drastically in the last decade, growing from 27,557 in 2010 to 408,078 in 2019,” it stated.
It noted that although the country was reaping dividends from the success of its citizens in the Diaspora, which was put at five per cent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2019, when it comes to the discourse on international migration, the narrative has not been palatable.
“Nigeria is facing one of the most acute jobless crises in recent times. Between 2014 and 2020, Nigeria’s working age population grew from 102million to 122million, growing at an average rate of approximately 3 per cent per year.
“Similarly, Nigeria’s active labour force population, that is, those willing and able to work among the working age population, grew from 73million in 2014 to 90million in 2018, adding 17.5million new entrants to Nigeria’s active labour force.
“Since 2018, however, the active labour force population has dramatically decreased to around 70million—lower than the level in 2014— while the number of Nigerians who are in the working-age population but not active in the labour force has increased from 29million to 52million between 2014 and 2020.
“The expanding working-age population combined with scarce domestic employment opportunities is creating high rates of unemployment, particularly for Nigeria’s youth,” the World Bank report noted.
However, between 2010 and 2020, the international financial institution estimated that the unemployment rate rose five-fold, from 6.4 per cent in 2010 to 33.3 per cent in 2020, with the rates being particularly acute since the 2015/2016 economic recession and further worsened as Covid-19 led to the worst recession in four decades in 2020.
Increasingly, it noted that educated Nigerians were struggling to find employment opportunities in the country while unemployment rates increased substantially for Nigerians across all education levels over the years, becoming progressively challenging for educated Nigerians to find employment opportunities.
“Combined with significant demographic changes and increased aspirations of the youth, Nigeria’s unemployment crisis is creating migratory pressure in the economy.
“Unemployment is considered to be a key driver of migration. Consequently, multiple surveys show that the number of Nigerians, who are looking to migrate internationally, is high and increasing,” it pointed out.
In the last few years, the bank stated that the number of persons eager to migrate has increased from 36 per cent in 2014, to 52 per cent in 2018, noting that the desire to migrate remains higher among unemployed (38 per cent), youth (39 per cent), secondary education graduates (39 per cent), urban residents (41 per cent) and post-secondary graduates (45 per cent) in Nigeria.
It maintained that since there has not been an expansion of legal migration routes for youth increasingly eager to find opportunities in the overseas labour market, young Nigerians are opting for irregular migration routes to realise their hopes for a better life.
“What is worrying, however, is the increase in the number of forced and irregular migrants from Nigeria,” it disclosed.
It stressed that to ensure mutual cooperation, the European Trust Fund for Africa (EUTF), which was established in 2015, with the aim to promote areas of mutual development interest between Europe and Africa, has since provided more than €4billion in aid to African countries to address various development-related challenges and priorities in Africa.
Since its inception, the EUTF, the bank stated, has provided more than €770million for migration-related projects in Nigeria, with most of the funds invested in border control measures, awareness campaigns to stop trafficking, and the creation of jobs domestically, including for returned Nigerian migrants.
While predicting that by 2100, Europe’s working age population between the ages of 20 and 64 would decline by 30 per cent owing to low birth-rates and increased longevity, it further projected that at same time, the working age-population in Nigeria could increase by 140 per cent.
“By expanding legal pathways for migration and implementing supporting measures to reap dividends from current migrants in the Diaspora, Nigeria can further benefit from international migration.
“Nigeria’s institutions are well-placed to promote managed migration approaches that help create opportunities for prospective Nigerian jobseekers to find employment internationally and can be supported to help design schemes that increase the returns to human capital investments for Nigerian youth,” the report concluded.
In a related development, the multilateral institution has estimated that 4,000 Nigerian children were made orphans by the Covid-19 between March, 2020 and July, 2021.
The report by the bank’s experts at the Imperial College of London, revealed that over 4,100 Nigerian children lost one or both primary caregivers within the aforementioned period, while 4,300 lost one or both primary and secondary caregivers.
The report posted on the bank’s blog was jointly authored by World Bank’s Lead Economist, Laura Rawlings and a senior technical advisor, Centre for Disease Control (CDC) Covid-19 International Task Force, Susan Hillis, and titled, “For every two Covid-19 deaths, one child loses a caregiver. We must do more to address the orphan crisis.”
The report stated: “The Covid crisis will leave many unwanted legacies. The world has been closely tracking the Covid-19 death toll, with official mortality counts now reaching over four million people, largely concentrated among adults. The children left behind have been practically invisible.
“Our estimates of the toll on children left behind, just released, are that for every two people, who die of Covid, one child is left orphaned, facing the death of a parent or grandparent caregiver, who had been living in their home.
“By the end of June 2021, because of Covid-19, our estimates show that nearly two million children under 18 years had lost a mother, father, and/or grandparent caregiver, who lived in their household.”
According to the experts, countries with primary caregiver death rates of at least one per 1,000 children include Peru (10.2 per 1,000 children), South Africa (5.1), Mexico (3.5), Brazil (2.4), Colombia (2.3), Iran (1.7), the USA (1.5), Argentina (1.1), and Russia (1.0).
They also noted that at the current rate, one child was being orphaned every 12 seconds due to a Covid-19-associated death, adding that the toll was growing.
The authors noted that the Covid-19 related deaths had a wide range of effects on the children from economic, developmental to psychological impacts, which would reverberate across generations.
According to them, children orphaned by Covid face a constellation of risks, which often arrive with rapid and broad consequences.
“The threats of poverty, malnutrition, displacement and separation from siblings or other family members, school dropout, depression, violence and child marriage can emerge suddenly from the Pandora’s box of Covid-19,” they said.
Nigeria had as of July 20, 2021, recorded about 2,128 Covid-19 deaths, suggesting that for every one death in the country, an average of two children become orphans.
The Rivers State Government has called on stakeholders, community leaders, parents and relevant education authorities to intensify efforts to identify and enrol out-of-school children across Nigeria, stressing that every child deserves access to quality and inclusive education.
Governor Siminalayi Fubara made the call, yesterday, during the regional campaign on engaging community structures to promote the enrolment of out-of-school children and the regional flag-off of the 2026/2027 enrolment drive for southern states, held in Port Harcourt.
Represented by the Secretary to the State Government, Dr Dagogo Wokoma, Governor Fubara reaffirmed that education remains a fundamental pillar of sustainable development and emphasised the need to ensure that no child is left behind because of economic hardship, social background or other barriers to schooling.
He noted that expanding access to education was essential to promoting sustainable development, social inclusion and equal opportunities, enabling children to reach their full potential and contribute meaningfully to society.
The governor urged participating states and communities to translate their commitments into concrete and measurable actions by reaching vulnerable children, strengthening community engagement and encouraging parents and guardians to make their children’s education a priority.
He reiterated the state government’s commitment to initiatives aimed at expanding access to education, particularly for children excluded from formal schooling.
“Rivers State remains committed to supporting initiatives that expand access to inclusive and quality education, particularly for vulnerable children who may have missed the opportunity to attend formal schools,” Fubara stressed.
Also speaking, the Executive Secretary of the Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC), Aisha Garba, described the growing number of out-of-school children as one of the major challenges confronting the education sector.
She called for a collective and collaborative approach among governments, communities, parents and other stakeholders to address the problem, stressing the need to ensure that no Nigerian child is denied the fundamental right to education.
The programme was organised by the Universal Basic Education Commission in collaboration with the Rivers State Government, as part of efforts to strengthen community participation and promote school enrolment across the southern states for the 2026/2027 academic session.
The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) has shared the sum of N2.428 trillion among the Federal Government, 36 states government and the 774 Local Government Councils (LGCs) as revenue for the month of September.
The Director, Press and Public Relations, Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation (OAGF), Mr Bawa Mokwa, said this in a statement in Abuja, yesterday.
Mokwa said the allocation was approved by FAAC at its October meeting held in Abuja.
He said the N2.428 trillion distributable revenue comprised of statutory revenue of N1.672 trillion, distributable Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue of N756.587 billion.
Mokwa quoted the FAAC communiqué as saying that total gross revenue of N3.913 trillion was available in the month of September 2026.
He said a total deduction for cost of collection was N131.758 billion while total transfers, refunds and savings of N1.352 trillion.
According to him, a gross statutory revenue of N3.096 trillion was received for the month of September 2026.
“This was higher than the sum of N2.850 trillion received in the preceeding month by N246.384 billion.
“Gross revenue of N816.872 billion was available from the Value Added Tax (VAT) in September 2026.
“This was lower than the N834.843 billion available in the month of August 2026 by N17.972 billion,” he said.
Mokwa explained that the Federal Government received N832.242 billion and the state governments received the sum of N799.872 billion.
He said the LGCs received N560.660 billion, while the sum of N236.049 billion (13% of mineral revenue) was shared to the benefiting state as derivation revenue.
Mokwa said in the N1.672 billion distributable statutory revenue, the Federal Government received N756.583 billion and the State Governments received N383.749 billion.
He said the LGCs received N295.855 billion and the sum of N236.049 billion (13% of mineral revenue) was shared to the benefiting States as derivation revenue.
The director said from the N756.587 billion distributable Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue, the Federal Government received N75.659 billion, the State Governments received N416.123 billion and the LGCs received N264.805 billion.
“In September 2026, Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT), Hydrocarbon Tax (HT), Petroleum Royalties, Import Duty, CET Levies and Excise Duty increased significantly.
“Also, Companies Income Tax (CIT), CGT & SDT, Value Added Tax (VTA), Mineral Royalties, and Gas Flared Penalty, Rental Gas Flared Fee and Misc. Oil Revenue decreased considerably,” he said.
The ultimatum followed a joint meeting of the National Executive Council and Central Working Committee of the NLC held at the Olaitan Oyerinde Hall, Labour House, Abuja.
In a communiqué signed by the NLC President, Joe Ajaero, and made available to newsmen, yesterday, the union said the two-week ultimatum would commence on Friday, October 9, 2026.
It warned that failure by the government to meet its demands would compel the Congress to take further action.
The NLC specifically demanded that the government reduce the price of Premium Motor Spirit to the level it was when the current national minimum wage was signed into law in 2024.
It also demanded the immediate commencement of negotiations for a new minimum wage, implementation of the February 5, 2026, Terms of Settlement reached with the Joint Health Sector Unions and Assembly of Healthcare Professionals, and action on the demands of the Joint Public Sector Negotiating Council.
The Congress further demanded tax relief and immediate wage awards for workers, arguing that the measures were necessary to cushion the impact of rising living costs.
The NLC said, “The current national minimum wage has been rendered worthless by the relentless depreciation of the naira and the astronomical rise in the cost of living.”
It added that workers could no longer meet basic needs, including food, shelter, healthcare, transportation and education, on their current earnings.
The labour body, therefore, demanded that the Federal Government commence renegotiation of the national minimum wage before the end of October.
“NEC-in-session demands that the Federal Government commence the renegotiation of the national minimum wage before the end of this month,” the communiqué stated.
The Congress also linked the erosion of workers’ purchasing power to the high cost of petrol, saying the price of the commodity had continued to drive up transportation costs and the prices of other essential goods.
“The exorbitant pump price of petrol has had a cascading effect on the cost of transportation, food, and other essential goods, further deepening the hardship of workers and the masses,” it said.
The NLC further demanded that the government grant tax relief to workers and immediately introduce wage awards, describing the measures as “the bare minimum required to alleviate the suffering of Nigerian workers and restore a measure of dignity to their lives.”
The latest ultimatum escalates the labour movement’s pressure on the Federal Government after public-sector workers under the Joint National Public Service Negotiating Council embarked on a three-day warning strike earlier in October over rising living costs, petrol prices, wage awards and minimum wage negotiations.
The workers had demanded, among other measures, a reduction in petrol prices and the commencement of negotiations for a new minimum wage.
The NLC had also raised concerns in September over the declining purchasing power of workers, with Ajaero arguing that the N70,000 minimum wage had been overtaken by increases in the cost of food, transportation, housing, education and other essential expenses.
The current minimum wage was approved by President Bola Tinubu in July 2024 after negotiations involving the government, organised labour and the private sector.
Tinubu increased the Federal Government’s offer from N62,000 to N70,000 and agreed that the wage should be reviewed after three years rather than five years.
The NLC’s latest demand comes as the Federal Government announced fresh measures aimed at containing petrol-price pressures.
Yesterday, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, said the government was negotiating a ceiling of N1,350 per litre on the ex-gantry or landing cost of petrol, with monthly reviews, as part of measures to reduce price volatility.
The proposed ceiling does not mean petrol would necessarily sell at N1,350 per litre at filling stations.
The government also announced a 30-day discount on petrol dispensed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), with priority given to public transporters.
Oyedele said the arrangement was not a return to subsidy but an effort to sell the product at cost.
However, the NLC is seeking a more substantial reduction, insisting that petrol should return to the price level that prevailed when the N70,000 minimum wage was enacted in 2024.
The Congress also called for the implementation of the agreement reached with JOHESU in February, as well as the demands presented by the Joint Public Sector Negotiating Council.
It warned that failure to respond within the two-week period would have consequences.
“Failure of which the NLC will be compelled to take remedial steps as would be directed by the relevant organs,” the communiqué said.
The union consequently directed its affiliates and allies to remain prepared for further action.
“NEC-in-session reaffirms the historical responsibility of the NLC to resist all forms of exploitation and oppression,” it stated, urging its affiliates to remain “on high alert and fully prepared to engage in decisive efforts against all anti-people policies.”
The development also comes amid fresh labour tensions in Abuja, where the FCT Council of the NLC commenced an indefinite strike on Wednesday over disputes with the FCT Administration concerning teachers’ promotion policies.
The council directed workers across public and private establishments to withdraw their services after the expiration of a seven-day ultimatum.
The latest NLC ultimatum puts renewed pressure on the Federal Government to address wage and fuel-price concerns as both sides grapple with disagreements over the implementation of previous labour agreements and measures to cushion the impact of economic reforms.
The NLC said its demands were aimed at protecting workers and the wider population from further deterioration in their standard of living, insisting that Nigerian workers must remain “resolute, organised, and uncompromising” in the struggle for improved living conditions.
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