Nation
Chamber Predicts Rise In Inflationary Rate In 2021
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) says inflation rate will rise in 2021.
The chamber made the assertion in its Economic Review for 2020 and Outlook for 2021 made available to newsmen, yesterday in Lagos.
Its Director-General, Dr Muda Yusuf, attributed the projected inflation outlook for the incoming year to the combination of food supply shocks, heightened insecurity in major food-producing states, foreign exchange policies, illiquidity and higher energy costs.
“We, however, believe a broad-based harmonisation of fiscal and monetary policies towards addressing the identified structural constraints will significantly help to moderate inflationary pressure in the medium term,’’ he stated.
On sectorial review and outlook, the LCCI’s D-G said performance was largely weak across sectors in the third quarter of 2020 because of lingering effects of Covid-19 disruptions.
Yusuf stated that the trend would likely persist into the last quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021 as the economy gradually recovers from the recession.
He noted that a resurgence of Covid-19 pandemic would cause another disruption in activities in the oil and non-oil sectors.
“We expect Information, Communication Technology, financial institutions, and agriculture to drive growth in the non-oil sector in the short-term while the country’s commitment to Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreement is expected to dampen recovery prospects of the oil sector,’’ he stated.
On Agriculture, the LCCI’s D-G said he foresaw the CBN sustaining its intervention in the sector in year 2021 in a bid to boost domestic food production and minimise food supply gap.
“While the ban on importation of rice, poultry and other agricultural commodities still subsists amid border reopening, there is risk of resurgence of smuggling of agricultural products into the country considering the porous nature of Nigeria’s land borders.
“This, combined with the commencement of Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), could see Nigeria being a destination for imported food products in the absence of adequate border monitoring measures.
“Additionally, heightened security concerns around the country, especially in the northern part and resurgence in herder-farmer conflict in the Middle Belt, the southwest and southeast, if unaddressed, will hamper local food production in the near term.
“Nonetheless, we expect a modest growth performance in year 2021,’’ he said.
As outlook for the manufacturing sector, Yusuf said the reopening of the land borders should provide succour to the sector even as the kick-off of AfCFTA serves as an avenue for manufacturers to penetrate new African markets.
He noted that critical challenges currently beguiling the sector alongside the new competitiveness pressure foisted by the AfCFTA might dampen the recovery prospects of the sector in year 2021.
“We expect the CBN to sustain its intervention efforts in the manufacturing sector as part of measures to boost economic recovery.
“We see the CBN maintaining policies that support credit extension to the real economy.
“The low interest environment in the money market favours big manufacturing players in terms of raising cheap capital, but the business environment will remain challenging for manufacturing SMEs.
“In our view, credit flows to the manufacturing sector will fail to achieve desired outcomes without putting in place measures to address structural, bottlenecks in the ports and customs processes and other policy challenges to productivity.
“Thus, we see growth of the manufacturing sector being subdued in the near to medium term,’’ he said.
Yusuf said the banking industry was expected to sustain positive growth trajectory in Q4-2020 amid the numerous regulatory limitations.
“We expect CBN to maintain its regulatory surveillance in the industry in ensuring the industry is financially sound amid evolving Covid-19 disruptions.
“Resurgence of Covid-19 pandemic, oil price volatility sluggish economic recovery and lingering external pressure are major downside risks to the growth prospects of the banking sector in year 2021.
“Loan-to-Deposit-Ratio policies drove the impressive performance in Q1-2020 by 24 per cent and Q2-2020 by 28.41 per cent.
“Momentum eased in Q3-2020 (6.8 per cent) as banks became more reluctant in providing credit to business given weak macroeconomic conditions.
“Nevertheless, banking industry remained financially sound with Capital Adequacy, Non-Performing Loan Ratio and Liquidity Ratio at 15.5 per cent, 5.73 per cent and 35.6 per cent as of end-October 2020, respectively,’’ he said.
The LCCI’s D-G said the oil sector would further contract in Q4-2020 in the light of lower production in compliance to OPEC+ agreement.
“We note OPEC+ has agreed to ease supply cut by 0.5 million barrels per day starting from Jan. 1, 2021 due to sluggish recovery in fuel demand, much lower than 2.0 million barrels per day earlier planned.
“Crude oil production will likely be lower in year 2021 as OPEC+ sustains efforts to prevent oil glut.
“We project that OPEC+ will be cautious in relaxing output reduction given the uncertainties around Covid-19 pandemic and global oil demand.
“Thus, we expect oil and gas sector growth to be subdued in year 2021 on the continued implementation of OPEC+ Declaration of Cooperation and weak oil price outlook.
“Also, increasing preference for renewable energy globally will put downward pressure on crude oil demand and prices. We are not optimistic of a significant growth performance in oil industry in year 2021,’’ he said.
He said that considering the dim outlook for revenue in the face of weak economic fundamentals, government would most likely underperform its revenue projections with attendant impact on fiscal deficit and debt portfolio.
“Budget deficit for year 2021 is expected to remain elevated above the projected N5. trillion and this poses a risk to Nigeria’s fiscal sustainability.
“We believe the Federal Government will be inclined towards securing concessionary borrowings with low interest rate and long maturity profile in the global market, rather than raising Eurobonds, especially now that the country is faced with foreign exchange scarcity,’’ he said.
An Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Centre is set to be established in Omoku, Ogba/Egbema /Ndoni Local Government Area of Rivers State.
The initiative is being championed by the Omoku People’s Forum, a global association of Omoku elites, under the leadership of its President-General, Dr. George Ada Ubah.
As part of efforts to ensure the successful execution of the project, a prominent son of Omoku, Chief (Barr.) Dennis Masi, has been appointed by the Forum as the Chairman of the ICT Centre Project Committee, entrusted with the responsibility of coordinating and driving the initiative to fruition. Upon completion, the ICT Centre is expected to serve as a major hub for the training and empowerment of youths in digital and technological skills, equipping them to actively participate in the increasingly technology-driven global environment.
The project is also widely regarded as a significant step towards positioning Omoku as an emerging ICT hub within Rivers State, fostering innovation, digital literacy, and economic development in the region.
Concerned Rivers Chiefs For Peace And Development has said it formation was not politically motivated or has any links to political parties or candidates.
The group which said this at a media briefing at Abuloma in Port Harcourt City Local Government Area said it’s formation has nothing to do with politics.
According to the text for the briefing jointly signed by Chief Boma Kele Oyika it’s chairman and Chief Inemo T Ikama Deputy Secretary General said the organization is expected to focus on conflict Resolution, community engagement, collaboration with government and private sector actors
‘it mandate also includes promoting peace building initiative, supporting local economic empowerment programms and strengthening traditional institutions in our state and beyond as partners in governance ”
It said the body is led by a team of respected traditional leaders serving as trustees
“Their collective leadership reflects a blend of experience cultural authority and grassroots connection
“Key elements considered vital for addressing long standing,socio economic and security challenges in the region”
The release further says ” the formation of this organization comes at a time when communities in Rivers state continue to navigate between issues ranging from youth unemployment, environmental concerns and intermittent conflicts amongst the traditional rulers and beyond
“By bringing together influential traditional figures under a unified platform, the group aims at serving as stabilizing force while advocating for inclusive development policies ” it said
It also described its emergence as a new chapter in grass roots leadership and regional development
Earlier, chairman of the body, Chief Boma Kele Oyika said the organization will work with relevant authorities to promote peaceful coexistence in the state, reduce crime and promote economic development.
He said it is open to all Chiefs from the 23 local government areas.
The Chairman of The Nigeria Delta Chamber of Commerce, Trade, Mines and Agriculture NDCCTMA,Ambassador Idaere Gogo Ogan and the Managing Director of the Niger Delta Development Commission ( NDDC ) Dr Samuel Ogbuku have challenged Niger Delta entrepreneurs to close the gap in Gross Demostic Products (GDP) differences between the region and that of the South Western part of the country by coming home to invest.
The two leaders spoke at a business round table organized by NDDCTMA in Port Harcourt
Chairman of NDDCTMA Ambassador Idaere Gogo Ogan, said to close the gap between the south west region which he said has a GDP seize of about #59 trillion and that of the Niger Delta which is about #34 trillion was to massively invest in the region.
He said no other persons can do this except sons and daughters from the region.
“For me I believe in statistics,I believe in data and everyday I looked at the data concerning development in Nigeria and from the GDP point of view, the South West has #59 trillion, that is the seize of the south west region economy, the second region following them is the Niger Delta region with GDP seize of #34 trillion,so there is a yearning gap of #25 trillion that separates the south west and the Niger Delta region, that is why we are here”
Ogan said the region has the capacity to close the gap and even surpassed it but regretted that indigenes of the region have chosen to ignore it in terms of investment.
“We need to close that gap .If we close that gap and even surpassed it,all the negative problems of militancy and unemployment will automatically erase “he said
Ogan said the event was organized to remind the people that past efforts of militancy and agitations have not led the region to any where
“That is why we are gathered here in this room “he said.
Also speaking Managing Director/Chief Executive officer of the Niger Delta Development Commission( NDDC) Dr Samuel Ogbuku urged indigenes of the region not to use the problem of insecurity as an excuse to continue to deny the region of investment as every part of the country have in one time or the other experienced crisis.
Ogbuku said most indigenes have displayed high level of unpatriotism towards the region by taking investments that would have benefited the people to either Lagos or Abuja.
“With little threat we have left the city,we have gone to Lagos,we have moved our families to Abuja and Lagos
“If you go round GRA all the property, you will see,”to let to let”most of them are now empty “he said.
The NDDC MD said despite the fact that people from the region are doing well in the oil and gas, banking and other sectors, its impact are not being felt at home because they are stationed outside the region.
He said time has come for potential investors from the region to have a change of heart by coming home to invest.
John Bibor