Business
UK Economy Faces Recession Soon – Report
The United Kingdom economy will enter recession in the first half of the year as households continue to cut back, an influential think tank has warned.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the government should temporarily ease its spending cuts to promote growth, according to a British Broadcasting Corporation report on Friday.
It expects the economy to shrink 0.1 per cent in 2012, but to grow 2.3 per cent in 2013 if the eurozone debt crisis is resolved.
Niesr said, however, that deficit cuts had bolstered market confidence.
The UK is already close to another recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction – after official figures in January showed that the economy shrank by 0.2 per cent in the final three months of 2011.
In its UK and World Economy Forecast, NIESR said, “We forecast a return to technical recession in the first half of this year, as households continue to retrench, credit conditions remain tight, and businesses are reluctant to invest given uncertainty about both domestic and foreign demand.”
Niesr said economic conditions will not improve in the short term, as both the private the public sectors are still focused on paying off debts. “Over the near term we do not expect economic conditions to improve,” the report said.
The think tank predicted that inflation would fall sharply, with the consumer price index down to 2.2 per cent this year and 1.4 per cent in 2013.
But there were grim forecasts on unemployment, which NIESR expects will rise to about nine per cent this year, from 8.4 per cent in the three months to November, and will remain above seven per cent in 2014.
“Unemployment at this elevated level for such a long period is likely to do permanent damage to the supply side of the economy, with large long-run economic costs,” the report said.
“As Niesr have said, the government’s commitment to deficit reduction has helped maintain market confidence,” said Treasury spokesman
Niesr suggests relaxing the government’s austerity programme. “The UK economy currently suffers from deficient demand; the current stance of fiscal policy is contributing to this deficiency. A temporary easing of fiscal policy in the near term would boost the economy,” the group said.
More investment would not derail the chancellor’s long term fiscal goals, Niesr said.
On Monday, the Institute of Fiscal Studies said the government could safely cut taxes temporarily, without worrying that the Bank of England would raise rates in response.
But the IFS that there was little scope for big or long-term tax cuts, which risked undermining investor confidence.
The chancellor faces his third budget with the economy and public finances in considerably weaker shape than he had hoped a year ago,” said Paul Johnson, director of the IFS.
Last month, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said he would continue with the coalition government’s efforts to reduce the deficit, despite criticism that it is choking off recovery.
A Treasury spokesman said, “As NIESR have said, the government’s commitment to deficit reduction has helped maintain market confidence.
“They expect the government to meet its fiscal mandate and for the UK economy to grow more strongly than the euro area this year and next.”
Meanwhile, NIESR forecast global growth of 3.5 per cent for 2012, led by China and India, and four per cent in 2013. It forecast US economic growth of two per cent this year. An independent Scotland could be more constrained on economic policy than at present, a study has suggested.
The report also considered the monetary and fiscal policy choices facing Scotland if it leaves the union.
Niesr concluded that retaining sterling would be “sensible” for Scotland, but warned that currency union could restrict fiscal policy.
The Board stated this in a statement released by its Corporate Communications Directorate to newsmen, recently, during the inauguration of 140 trainees for the Train 7 Project.
The trainees had undergone the Nigerian Content Human Capacity Development (NC-HCD) programme it organised in partnership with the Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) Limited in Port Harcourt, the Rivers State capital.
The Tide gathered that the training programme was an intensive three-month Advanced NC-HCD Programme for the US$5 billion NLNG Train 7 Project on Bonny Island, Rivers State.
The trainees, The Tide further learnt are graduates in different academic disciplines who have completed a 12-month Basic Training Programme in diverse oil-and-gas-industry-related skill sets and are now set for an on-the-job phase which includes active hands-on participation in operational areas such as Turn Around Maintenance (TAM), Commissioning, and Desktop Programmes.
The Corporate Communications Directorate of the NCDMB told The Tide that in November 2024, a set of 331 trainees under Batch A of the NLNG T7 HCD Training Programme began capacity development in facility management, engineering, Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Health Safety and Environment (HSE), Quality Assurance and Quality Control, as well as welding and fabrication.
According to the Board, additional 77 trainees under Batch B of the same Training Programme began capacity development in data analytics and supply chain management among several other fields relevant to the operations of the oil and gas industry.
While addressing the trainees and trainers who were drawn from the Oil and Gas Trainers Association of Nigeria (OGTAN), Management Personnel of the NCDMB and NLNG, the Executive Secretary of NCDMB, Engr Felix Omatsola Ogbe, said the Advanced NC-HCD training is more than a milestone.
“The NC-HCD training programme is an expression of the collective commitment of the Board and the NLNG to nurturing world-class Nigerian professionals who will shape the future of our oil and gas industry.
“The Board has remained steadfast in its conviction that Human Capital Development is a critical investment in the sustainability and competitiveness of Nigeria’s oil and gas value chain”, the NCDMB boss said.
He said the situation has resulted in widened knowledge gaps and operational challenges.
As a globally regulated sector, he said it was important that stakeholders put measures in place to attract the talents required to move the industry forward.
Keyamo, therefore, called on stakeholders in the industry to be deliberate in identifying, encouraging, nurturing and harvesting young talents to ensure a sustainable supply of manpower to the aviation sector.
Director of Public Affairs and Consumer Protection of the FAAN, Mrs Obiageli Orah, in a release made available to aviation correspondents, noted that the Minister deemed it necessary to attract the right quality of human resources required to move the sector forward.
“As a globally regulated sector, it is important that stakeholders put measures in place to continually attract the right quality and quantity of human resources required to move the industry forward.
“It is important to note that organising training programmes are avenues through which we can breed, nurture, and harvest such human resources.
“One of the critical challenges facing the industry is the ageing and retiring workforce, leading to widened knowledge gaps and operational issues.
“Training programmes, I believe, is among other things designed to make aviation appealing to the younger generation, while encouraging them to develop interest in taking up a career in the industry”, the statement stated.
Meanwhile, some aviation stakeholders have expressed concerns of countless young Nigerians who seek to make their mark in aviation, tourism, and the wider transport ecosystem but often face steep barriers to entry.
According to them, lack of access, limited mentorship, financial constraints, skill mismatches, and systemic gaps, among others, have posed some constraints to them.
The Tide gathered that by the appointment, Ogbe becomes Nigeria’s representative on the Board of the 18-member continental body, which has its headquarters at Brazzaville, Republic of the Congo.
Ogbe was picked for this role by the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, who doubles as the Chairman of the NCDMB Governing Council.
The notice of the Executive Secretary’s appointment was conveyed in a congratulatory letter signed by the Director of Support Services, APPO, Mrs. Philomena Ikoko, on behalf of the Secretary-General of the organisation, Dr. Omar Farouk Ibrahim.
She applauded the NCDMB boss on the confidence reposed in him by the Minister, expressing her belief that he would make immense contributions to the development of the African oil and gas industry.
Mrs Ikoko stated that Ogbe was joining the Executive Board of APPO at a challenging time for the oil and gas industry, especially in Africa.
“Your appointment is a major call to duty for Nigeria and the continent. The secretariat will give you the support you will need to make a success of your assignment”, she said.
According to a statement by the Directorate of Corporate Communications and Zonal Coordination, the NCDMB played key roles in catalysing the operations of APPO and the development of local content in Africa.
The statement added that the board was providing institutional support and mentorship to several oil producing countries in their formulation of local content policies.
“The NCDMB initiated the African Local Content Roundtable (ALCR) and hosted the inaugural edition in Yenagoa, Bayelsa state, in June 2021, and the event was attended by key officials of APPO and other oil industry players.
“The idea for the Africa Energy Bank (AEB) was mooted by NCDMB’s officials at the event, as one of the strategies that would accelerate the growth of the African oil and gas industry and deepen local content.
“The Board also collaborated with APPO to host subsequent editions of the African Local Content Roundtable (ALCR), including the 2023 edition held at Abuja.
“The Africa Energy Bank, which APPO is setting up at Abuja, is aimed at pooling financial resources needed to fund big-ticket oil and gas projects across the continent, and bridge funding challenges currently impeding the development of the sector”, the NCDMB’S said.
Meanwhile, the APPO Secretary-General has said the Africa Energy Bank seeks to fund oil and gas projects across economies in Africa and help to plug critical financing gaps that exist through the continent’s over reliance on financiers from the West.
He added that each APPO member country is expected to raise $83 million with an objective of raising $5 billion capital for the establishment of the Bank.
The Tide learnt that recently Nigeria, Angola and Ghana have contributed their share capital for the African Energy Bank, which represents 44 percent of the trio’s contributions to the minimum capital that is required from oil producing countries in the continent.
It would be recalled that at the Nigerian Oil and Gas Opportunity Fair (NOGOF) held recently, the NCDMB’s Scribe confirmed that the agency was part of key institutions that pooled resources for the formation of the Africa Energy Bank.
Ogbe announced that the Bank will open for business before the end of the 2nd quarter of this year, 2025, expressing hope that it will create more funding availability for local oil and gas projects and companies.
Similarly, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, had stated at the Offshore Technology Conference that Afrexim Bank has already raised $19billion for the take-off of the Africa Energy Bank.
According to him, $14 billion out of the funds represents the bank’s financial exposure on African oil and gas projects, with the additional $5 billion as take-off capital.
-
Rivers4 days ago
Rivers SOLAD Urges Traditional Rulers To Protect Govt Facilities
-
Sports4 days agoIkpeba Football Challenge Final Holds,’Morrow
-
Business5 days ago
Petrol Price Should Reflect Sliding Exchange Rate – IPMAN
-
City Crime4 days agoDemocracy Day: Tinubu Addresses Joint N’Assembly Today
-
Nation5 days ago
Court Jails Man For N360m Fraud
-
News4 days agoSenate Moves To Institutionalise June 12 Presidential Address
-
Rivers4 days ago
Normalcy Returns In Ekpeye Kingdom After Protest
-
Sports4 days agoOkpekpe 10km Road Race Returns Next Year