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Cautious Optimism As Naira Rebounds

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It has been good news since the past three weeks as our national currency, the Naira, continues to regain its lost value. The recovery follows frantic efforts by a government whose ill-advised, inaugural policies had set the legal tender, and the whole economy, tumbling.
The naira took an unprecedented plunge from last June and hit bottoms by the middle of March, 2024, following a hasty decision by President Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, to let it float freely on the market forces of demand and supply, in addition to removing petroleum subsidy, in disregard of the handicap of Nigeria’s import-dependence.
Without provisions to boost productions that satisfy domestic demands, or prime export capacities to balance import pressures on the local currency, a floating naira depreciated by 25 per cent in a single day in June, 2023, dropping to N1,950 per dollar in March, 2024, from about N750 per dollar earlier in May, 2023, while the price of petrol jumped overnight to 295 per cent, from N189 to N557. By December, 2023 overall inflation, according to official estimates, reached 28.92 per cent and food inflation shot beyond 33.33 per cent.
According to a World Bank report, whereas about 24 million Nigerians crossed the poverty line during the first half of 2023, in the twilight of the Buhari administration, situations got worse by the end of 2023, when accelerating inflations ushered-in by Tinubu’s hasty policies, pushed 63 per cent of Nigerians (about 133 million) into multi-dimensional poverty.
By the first quarter of 2024 hardships drove restive youths to near-uprising, which forced government into another haste – a concoction of palliatives – ironically, a form of subsidy, which it had earlier denounced as government wastefulness.
With the naira regaining its losses, it appears a panicky government has finally groped unto a solution. But if Mr President’s men are remorseful for the havoc done to Nigerians, they should be more sober this time in their computations to avoid distressing the country further.
The Federal Government has resorted to offloading dollar raised from sovereign bonds (in essence, loans), petroleum export proceeds and drawdowns from the external reserves, into the economy to reduce Foreign Exchange (FX) supply pressures, and to help it buy time in the hope of finding solutions to the wider unfavourable economic fundamentals bedevilling the economy.
On the dollar demand side, government has freed-up official restrictions that it believes created artificial scarcities that favour the black market. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has also cleared-off a backlog of FX obligations to assure investors, lifted the ban on sale of dollar to Bureau De Change Operators (BDCs), clamped down on currency speculators, closed down Binance, a crypto platform government accused of opaque dealings with money launderers, and borrowed dollar through short-term, sovereign bonds to ‘defend’ the naira.
Ever since, the CBN has offloaded dollar to BDCs at progressively reduced rates in the hope of prompting currency hoarders to cut losses and release supposed stockpiles. But in a clime where looted funds are desperately exchanged and exported, not much may be squeezed from hoarders, if surveillance is not stepped up. However, as at April 8, 2024, the CBN has offloaded a second tranche of $10,000 per BDC operator at N1,101 per dollar with a charge not to sell above 1.5 per cent margin. Many predict the CBN would offer the dollar below N1,000 in the coming weeks.
But for how long can the CBN go on with its bonanza to ‘defend the Naira’?  And what has been the cost of that defence? While the impact of a strengthening naira is yet to reflect on commodity prices in Nigeria, the nation’s foreign reserve has dropped within 18 days by $0.95billion, down from $34.45billion on March 18, 2024, to N33.50billion on April 3, which represents a daily average depletion rate of $52.78 million. This is despite the $3billion loan from the AFREXIMBANK and petro-dollar revenues also thrown into the fray. To sustain its strengths, reports say the federal government plans to take stabilisation loans by June, 2024, speculated at a tune of $15billion, through the issuance of domestic bonds denominated in foreign currency. FG seeks the loans within the window of short-term, volatile Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) bonds which may disappoint the country in times of crises, as against Foreign Direct Investments which are more reliable. According to Bloomberg reports, FG has contacted investment banks, JP Morgan Chase & Co, Goldman Sachs and Citibank NA, for advice on Eurobonds, but Nigeria’s Debt Management Office denies Federal Executive Council’s approvals for such.
Certainly, a stronger currency is beneficial to an import-dependent nation like Nigeria, but without strengthening national productivity to generate surpluses for trade-balancing exports, the pursuit of merely high currency valuation becomes a vain strategy. While the naira strengthens, the reality of the adverse economic fundamentals that erode its worth remains unchanged, implying that its buoyancy rides merely on costly FX floods being pumped by the CBN. It is easy to guess the result should the CBN halt supply.
For years, Nigeria relied on its petroleum sector which at present provides about 78 per cent of FX earnings, but constitutes far less than 10 per cent of its real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), implying that to stabilise, Nigeria needs to grow its non-oil sector of over 90 per cent of GDP. Even the petroleum revenue is endangered by sabotage, illegal bunkering, dwindling investments and insecurity.
The FG may have taken the bet that sustaining the naira could buy it time from hard-pressed Nigerians, in the hope that a number of tangible local productions might kick-off. Notable among the expectations is the Dangote Refinery which, with its 650,000 barrels per day refinning capacity, is expected to satisfy local demands of petroleum products to ease the huge FX demand in that front, and may hopefully earn FX through exports. Already, Dangote’s recent release of 100 million liters of diesel crashed the price of the product from N1,700 to N1,350, with another batch of 100 million liters expected to crash prices further, while the company plans to supply petrol by May, but government-owned refineries which have drained so much resources remain dysfunctional. Again, the recent break through against reprocity flight barriers between the UK and Nigeria by Airpeace, reportedly crashed ticket prices to UK by 60 per cent.
FG may also see reliefs in the successful take-off in Aba, of 24-hour power supply by the Geometric Group and the recent commissioning of 700 Megawatt Zungeru hydro-electricity station, a tomato processing plant in Nassarawa, and a steel mill in Kaduna. However, agricultural, petroleum and manufacturing sectors remain at  their lowest and beseiged by insecurity, while the finacial services sector appears to be strong but has incommensurate impact on industrialisation. If government does not encourage productivity in the real economy, its efforts in buoying the naira would be hopeless, while Nigeria falls deeper in debts. Already, as at December 31, 2023, Nigeria’s total debt stood at $106billion, while the 2024 budget of N28.7 trillion projects a deficit of N9.8 trillion to be debt-financed.
When public debt grows fast ahead of GDP growth rate, mounting debt service costs under-cut funds required for investment. That became the plight of Nigeria from Buhari’s era, when from 2016 to 2022 public debt grew by yearly average of 52.4 per cent, and GDP below 2 per cent. In that fateful 2022, debt service cost exceeded government revenue, which is why we are where we are.
The International Monetary Fund projects that Nigeria’s reserve would plummet to $24billion by end of 2024. Meanwhile, a nation’s FX reserve reflects the country’s balance of payments and its ability to settle international obligations. Severe declines in reserve may erode investor confidence and lead to downgrading of its credit ratings, which further worsens the nation’s borrowing costs.
Therefore the current approach towards buoying the Naira through loans cannot be any other thing, but a gamble.

By: Joseph Nwankwor

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Opinion

The Rantings  Of Rivers ALGON

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For the first time in the last eight years , one can observe a moribund  and toothless,  Association  of Local  Government of Nigeria, Rivers State Chapter trying to lull the people of Rivers State in believing that  it exists, that it is versed and abreast with the provisions  of the 1999 Constitution  of the Federal  Republic of Nigeria (as amended), knowledgeable  about subsisting  judicial  pronouncements on  the Local government administration  matters by courts of competent jurisdiction,  and it has workers  and. the people’s  welfare at heart.
These wrong impressions  can be deduced from the text of the Press Conference  delivered by the Association  last week.
Despite the window dressing  and cosmetic posture   that the Association  of Local Government of Nigeria, Rivers Sttate chapter wants to impress on the people and residents of Rivers State,  it is crystal clear that workers at the Third Tier of  Government  have not fared well in the last eight years of the repressive  and workers unfriendly  immediate past administration  in the State.
While workers at the State were fortunate to have a controversial minimum  wage paid to them, local Government  workers did not benefit from the N30,000 Minimum  Wage which became a legal instrument  about six years until March 2024, following  a directive by the Executive  Governor,  Sir Siminalayi  Fubara,  to Local Government chairmen in the State to immediately  implement the minimum wage,  wage award and  promote workers.
Where was.the Legal Adviser  of the Association of Local Government of Nigeria, whose statutory  responsibility it  was to advise the former  Rivers State. Governor  that it is  an affront on the sensibilities of  workers and fragrant.breach of extant law  to not pay minimum  wage to workers at.the 23 Local Government councils.
Civil servants at the State and Local Government  councils were not promoted and did not benefit from the annual incremental credit for about ten years. The incremental credit is a paltry and very insignificant  amount compared to the inputs of workers to drive implementation of government  policies and programmes and what elective office holders take home within the comparable period.
I had expected a “concerned  and workers-friendly ‘ Association  of Local Government in the State to midwife the promotion of workers, implementation  of Minimum wage  and fulfill their statutory  obligations to the workers and the people at the local government  areas whose resources they hold in trust and on whose behest they are in power.
It therefore  beats my imagination that    Local  Government  Chairmen  of ALGON,  who are products of  the ballot and not  appointees of the former governor lost their “Executive” status and played the second  fiddle role. Even when there was unconfirmed tampering  of local government funds, they could not  protest or raise an eye brow.
How the people who were cowardly and timid before the former  administration  in the State  suddenly  cultivated and imbibed the effrontry  and temerity to hold a Press Conference attempting to disparage the performing  and conscientious  Sir Siminalayi Fubara-led administration  leaves much to be desired  and a bad taste in the mouth of all patriotic  and truthful  Rivers people.
I expected the self serving chairmen  under the aegis of the Association  of Local Government  of Nigeria to brace up to the challenges of seeming derecognition and denial of their right of expression as elected chairmen by the former administration  in the State.
While the ALGON has the legitimacy  to contest violation  of,  or infringement on their interests, such protest should not be seen as selective. Between  1999 and 2003,  the Association  of Local Government  of.Nigeria in Rivers State was vociferous  and so  alive to its onus that they rejected allocations  that did not reflect the true figures of what the local government councils deserved from the Joint Account Allocation  Committee  (JAAC). That was when ALGON was keen and committed  to the essence  of its formation. That was a real workers-friendly ALGON.
However, with the advent of crude and uncivilised godfatherism that circumvented real democratic processes for manipulative and coercive selection that ultimately  produced  unpopular candidates of the godfather,  chairmen were reduced to puppets, playing  subservient  roles for their benefactors instead of protecting  the interest and welfare of workers and the people of their local government areas, who they ought to represent.
Having therefore failed to speak up for workers and defend the welfare of the people of their local government areas, at a time they were oppressed,  the association  in my candid opinion  does not have the  moral justification to  cry fowl against the present  administration  in  Rivers State whose policies and programmes so far, reveal that the governor  understands  that  the legitimacy  of his administration  is  derived from the people, so he is accountable to  them by putting in place infrastructure that will give fresh breath to a people who are recuperating from  the suffocation  of repressive  and coercive  governance.
Sir Siminalayi Fubara  is today a messiah to workers in Rivers State. Local government. workers are .being paid minimum wage, promoted and duly placed at their appropriate levels after 10 years of no promotion.
Civil servants  in the State are sure of receiving  their pensions immediately  after retirement  from service  which was a marked. departure from previous  administration.
Rather than vilifying or  demonising the present  administration  in the State, the Association  of  Local Government of.Nigeria, Rivers State should thank the  Governor, Sir Siminalayi Fubara,  for doing in less than one year what their grand master could not  do for them and workers in eight  years.
Remember, everyone will stand in the court of history  and posterity  to account for their  actions and inactions  in office.

Igbiki Benibo

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Kidnapping: Need  For Govt  To Address  The Monster

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Kidnapping, a heinous crime, cannot be condoned in any circumstances. The situation in Nigeria, characterised by various security challenges, including the presence of militant groups and criminal organisations, requires a multifaceted approach to address its root causes.
A report by the Beacon Security and Intelligence Limited, a security risk management and intelligence company based in Abuja, stated that at least 2,583 people were killed and 2,164 kidnapped in the first quarter of this year.
The record carries the number of killings and abductions across the country from January to March, indicating that 80 percent of the killings and 94 percent of the abductions occurred in the Northern part of Nigeria.
This report, however, varied with the position by the National Security Adviser (NSA), Nuhu Ribadu, who said that the casualty figures were going down, the consulting firm’s report showed that an average of 28 persons were killed and 24 kidnapped.
The Nigerian government, through the Minister of Defence, Muhammad Badaru Abubakar, during the maiden edition of the annual lecture series organised by the Nigerian Army Resource Centre in Abuja, said the security situation was under control.
The casualty figures in zones, according to the data from the Beacon Security and Intelligence Limited, revealed that out of the people killed during the period, 793 were from the North-West, 681 from the North-East and 596 from the North-Central. The casualties were recorded from bandits’ attacks, farmers/herders’ conflicts and communal clashes.
The South-West recorded 194 killings, the South-South, 161 people; and South-East, 158. The five states with the highest number of killings were Borno, 517; Benue, 313; Katsina, 252; Zamfara, 212 and Kaduna, 206. The data showed that out of the 2,164 persons abducted within the period, 1,297 were kidnapped in the North-West, 421 in the North-East, 330 in the North-Central, 30 in the South-West, 66 in the South-South and 20 in the South-East.
Kaduna State recorded the highest number of abductees with 546; Zamfara, 447; Borno, 340; Katsina, 252 and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), 102. Experts hope that the present government under President Bola Tinubu will do the needful.
Firstly, addressing the socioeconomic factors that contribute to kidnapping is crucial. High unemployment rates, poverty, and lack of economic opportunities push individuals towards criminal activities. Investing in education, job creation programmes, and infrastructure development can help alleviate these issues and provide alternatives to crime.
Secondly, strengthening law enforcement and judicial systems is essential. Improving police training, equipping them with necessary resources, and enhancing collaboration between security agencies can help in apprehending criminals and ensuring justice for victims. Additionally, enhancing the efficiency of the judicial process and holding perpetrators accountable through swift and fair trials can deter future criminal activities.
Furthermore, enhancing intelligence gathering and surveillance capabilities can help in preempting kidnapping attempts and dismantling criminal networks. Cooperation between government agencies, intelligence services, and international partners can facilitate information sharing and coordination in combating organised crime.
Moreover, addressing corruption within the government and security forces is imperative. Corruption undermines efforts to combat crime by facilitating criminal activities and eroding public trust in institutions. Implementing anti-corruption measures, promoting transparency, and holding corrupt officials accountable can help in restoring trust and integrity within the system.
Community engagement and empowerment play a vital role in preventing kidnapping and other crimes. Building strong community relationships, fostering trust between residents and law enforcement agencies, and promoting community-based initiatives can help in identifying and addressing security threats at the grassroots level.
Finally, kidnapping in Nigeria is a complex issue that requires a comprehensive and coordinated approach. Addressing socioeconomic factors, strengthening law enforcement and judicial systems, enhancing intelligence capabilities, combating corruption, engaging communities, and promoting international cooperation are all crucial components in combating kidnapping and improving security in the country. However, it is important to remember that any strategy must prioritise human rights, the rule of law, and the protection of innocent lives.

Badamasi Junaidu
Junaidu writes from Abubakar Tatari Ali Polytechnic, Bauchi.

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Local  Government As Agent Of Nation Building

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Development is regarded as sequential changes or growths that occur in a society or country over time. It remains a product of good governance, which mostly lies in the hands of those at the helm of affairs at a particular time and process that led to the emergence of such leaders.
The local government is universally found in contemporary societies, both in the developed and developing countries. It is a vital political institution, such that modern politics and administration revolves around it. Today, most countries across the globe have adopted democratic system of government, being the government of the people, by the people and for the people. In these countries, governance is centered on three tiers with constitutional backing to aid rapid development. A country like Nigeria has three tiers of government, Federal, State and Local Governments. Each tier has constitutional roles, aimed at complementing each other. The mother of them, that is, the Federal Government, plays significant roles in nation building, and this is one of the reasons why citizens always look unto the presidency and participate actively during presidential elections conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
It is an established fact that citizens also perform their civic responsibilities as expected during the governorship elections, while there is a lot of apathy during the chairmanship and councillorship elections, forgetting that without a solid foundation, the longevity of structure or building is in doubt.
Citizens’ nonchalant attitude to the process that produces public administrators at the grassroots is quite alarming, and this usually results into having the wrong peg in the right hole.
Findings revealed that voter apathy associated with local government council elections was due to non-performance of some previous elected administrators, lack of security of lives or property and lack of trust in States Independent Electoral Commission (SIECs). Others include introduction of caretaker committees to man the affairs of the councils, do-or-die approach of political soldiers to the council’s polls, interest of the incumbent governors, choice of political godfathers, influence of respected monarchs and many more. The local government is a tier of government that provides essential services to the public, such as health and safety, transportation, sanitation, environmental, and utilities.
Also, it is the tier of government that ensures grading of rural roads, management of basic schools, local markets, among others. Public administrators play a crucial role in the delivery of these services and the management of local government organisations. Some time ago, the governor of Akwa Ibom State, Pastor Umo Eno, at the swearing-in ceremony of chairmen and vice chairmen of Nsit Ibom and Urue–Offong / Oruka Local Governments, compelled chairmen of the local government councils in the state to reside within their areas of jurisdiction for effective delivery on their mandate and development of rural areas.
Also, the ongoing campaign or demand for financial autonomy for local government by relevant stakeholders in the country further attests to how important this tier of government is in building a prosperous and self-sustained nation.
This development led to the conduct of local government council election in the 33 local government council areas of the state in 2021 by the current leadership of the Oyo State Independent Electoral Commission (OYSIEC), headed by a Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Aare Isiaka Abiola Olagunju. About 30 percent of registered voters took part in the election, a result that further attest to the long-time nonchalant attitude of citizens and residents to local government council elections. According to records, the feat attained by the commission in terms of voter turnout was the highest in recent times.
No doubt, democracy provides opportunity for people to choose their leaders and enables citizens to make their opinions known to those in power, enjoy good governance and interface with the authorities, especially those at the grassroots.
Adegoke writes in from Ibadan, Oyo State.

By: Adedamola Adegoke

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