Politics
2023 And Emerging Challenges
In preparation towards the nation’s general elections, the year 2022 is expected to witness a surge in array of political activities. Political permutation and scheming by political gladiators, parties and regional interests could upshot inflammatory statements, inter/intra party conflicts, assassination and thuggery.
Furthermore, internal conflicts within political parties, if not properly managed could lead to increased defections,new alliances and/or formation of political parties thereby overheating the polity.Inadvertently, underlining threats such as terrorism, banditry, kidnapping among others will be exacerbated while regional agitations, organised crimes, arms proliferation and activities of unknown gunmen are expected to escalate. And because political support for election in Nigeria is generally divided along geographical lines, the possibility of ethno-religious crises is imminent. The year could also witness rejuvenation of the civil society space and infiltration of these groups by opposition parties within and outside the country to advance subversive interests.
On a general note, gubernatorial elections in the South-West region, particularly in Osun and Ekiti States,scheduled for June and July, 2022 respectively, will mark the start of the 2023 elections.
In Osun State, with the incumbent governor on the ballot, it will be a close-fought battle due to the political infighting in the All Progressives Congress (APC) structure in the State.The region would also witness tense political wranglings between the camps/loyalists to Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Vice President and Ekiti State Governor over speculated Presidential aspirations. In addition, heightened secessionist agitations by coalition of Yoruba Nation groups may evolve.
Likewise, the political arena in the South-East is expected to be dominated by increased unscrupulous activities of the outlawed Indigenous Peoples of Biafra (IPOB) leading to amplified acts of civil disobedience.
Also, unrelenting politicians may continue to exploit Nnamdi Kanu’s detention to attract sympathy and political gains. The power tussle between the erstwhile Governor of Imo State, Rochas Okorocha, his son-in- law, Uche Nwosu and the current Governor, Hope Uzodinma could worsen the security situation in the state and the region in general.Although the declaration of interest by the duo of Anyim Pius Anyim and the Governor of Ebonyi State, Dave Umahi, though in different parties, will no doubt pith their supporters against one another. This and the quest by the PDP in Ebonyi State to retake power from the APC may heat up political activities in the days to come.
Similarly, the South-South is rife with speculations on the return of former president, Goodluck Jonathan which is generating varied public reactions that could also overheat the polity in the region. The political atmosphere in Cross River State is envisaged to be tensed especially with the decamping of the state governor to the ruling APC. This is moreso that the PDP may intensify political gimmicks to clinch back power.
The rift between Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike and the Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Ameachi coupled with the intra-party conflict in the APC may degenerate with implication for peace and stability of the State.
In the North Central, though Yahaya Bello has not formally declared interest to run for president, his posture and sideline campaigns, suggest that he is undoubtedly going to contest. The perceived intra-party squabbles between Bello’s loyalists and that of Tinubu could snowball into violence in the State.
The Nationalities Alliance for Self-determination Group (NINAS) may also intensify clamour for secession in the region premising on perceived marginalisation and inequitable distribution of resources. On the other hand, activities of bandits in Niger, Nasarawa and Benue States may disrupt electioneering processes and public order/ and safety.
Equally, considering that all the Governors in the North West except the Governor of Zamfara State will be finishing their tenures, it is projected that some of them may vie for National Assembly positions, which may cause major disaffection between the governors, serving Senators and party loyalists. Similarly, the issue of anointing a successor may likely generate clashes between the Governors and party executives in the States.
Lastly, though the political arena in the North East is relatively peaceful,the threat of terrorism in Borno, Yobe and part of Adamawa could affect electioneering process. Also, the APC may attempt to reclaim power in Adamawa and Bauchi States, which may heat up the political atmosphere.
That aside, it is worthy to note that as political factors shape the year’s activities, citizens remain the most viable tool for manipulation by some political actors to pursue self-centred motives. At this stage in Nigeria’s democracy, citizens must adopt and demonstrate an awakened attitude, taking into cognizance the fact that sustainable growth and development of the country lies in electing credible leaders.
By 2023, Nigeria’ democracy will have advanced to the point where citizens should not allure current manipulation by some politicians to use them to promote electoral malpractices and other acts of civil disobedience.
In the interest of peace and national stability, politicians must strictly play by the rules and have it at the back of their minds that rulership is only possible if the country is peaceful. Like wise,the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), as the electoral umpire, should be conscious of its actions as it will dictate the tone of the nation’s socio-political atmosphere before and after the elections. Security agencies should remain professional in discharging their duties and also properly analyse emerging threats and come up with measures to manage them. Therefore, a strong collaboration is recommended for the critical stakeholders.
By: Gani Abdullahi
Abdullahi, a veteran journalist, resides in Abuja.
The former two-term governor went down memory lane to recall how they founded the APC but were used and dumped.
In his words, “…those calling on us to join APC, we have agreed to join the APC but on clear agreement that protects and respects the interest of my party, NNPP and my political movement, Kwankwasiyya. No state where you go that you don’t have NNPP and Kwankwasiyya. We have gubernatorial candidates, senatorial candidates and others.
“We are ready to join APC under strong conditions and promises. We will not allow anyone to use us and later dump us.
“We were among the founding fathers of the APC and endured significant persecution from various security agencies while challenging the previous administration.
“Yet when the party assumed power, we received no recognition or appreciation for our sacrifices, simply because we didn’t originate from their original faction.
“We are not in a hurry to leave the NNPP; we are enjoying and have peace of mind. But if some want a political alliance that would not disappoint us like in the past, we are open to an alliance. Even if it is the PDP that realised their mistakes, let’s enter an agreement that will be made public,” Sen. Kwankwaso stated.
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has dismissed long-standing claims that he once sought to extend his tenure in office, insisting he never pursued a third term.
Speaking at the Democracy Dialogue organised by the Goodluck Jonathan Foundation in Accra, Ghana, Chief Obasanjo said there is no Nigerian, living or dead, who can truthfully claim he solicited support for a third term agenda.
“I’m not a fool. If I wanted a third term, I know how to go about it. And there is no Nigerian, dead or alive, that would say I called him and told him I wanted a third term,” the former president declared.
Chief Obasanjo argued that he had proven his ability to secure difficult national goals, citing Nigeria’s debt relief during his administration as a much greater challenge than any third term ambition.
“I keep telling them that if I could get debt relief, which was more difficult than getting a third term, then if I wanted a third term, I would have got it too,” he said.
He further cautioned against leaders who overstay in power, stressing that the belief in one’s indispensability is a “sin against God.”
On his part, former President Goodluck Jonathan said any leader who failed to perform would be voted out of office if proper elections were conducted.
Describing electoral manipulation as one of the biggest threats to democracy in Africa, he said unless stakeholders come together to rethink and reform democracy, it may collapse in Africa.
He added that leaders must commit to the kind of democracy that guarantees a great future for the children where their voices matter.
He said: “Democracy in Africa continent is going through a period of strain and risk collapse unless stakeholders came together to rethink and reform it. Electoral manipulation remains one of the biggest threats in Africa.
“We in Africa must begin to look at our democracy and rethink it in a way that works well for us and our people. One of the problems is our electoral system. People manipulate the process to remain in power by all means.
“If we had proper elections, a leader who fails to perform would be voted out. But in our case, people use the system to perpetuate themselves even when the people don’t want them.
“Our people want to enjoy their freedoms. They want their votes to count during elections. They want equitable representation and inclusivity. They want good education. Our people want security. They want access to good healthcare. They want jobs. They want dignity. When leaders fail to meet these basic needs, the people become disillusioned.”
The dialogue was also attended by the President of the ECOWAS Commission, Dr. Omar Touray, Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah of the Sokoto diocese of Catholic Church among others who all stressed that democracy in Africa must go beyond elections to include accountability, service, and discipline.
The Rivers State House of Assembly yesterday resumed plenary session after a six-month state of emergency imposed on the state by President Bola Tinubu elapsed on Wednesday midnight.
President Bola Tinubu had lifted the emergency rule on September 17, with the Governor of the state, Siminalayi Fubara, his deputy, Ngozi Odu, and members of the state assembly asked to resume duties on September 18.
The plenary was presided over by the Speaker of the House, Martins Amaewhule, at the conference hall located within the legislative quarters in Port Harcourt, the state capital.
The conference hall has served as the lawmakers’ temporary chamber since their official chamber at the assembly complex on Moscow Road was torched and later pulled down by the state government.
The outgone sole administrator of the state, Ibok-Ete Ibas, could not complete the reconstruction of the assembly complex as promised.
Recall that on March 18, President Bola Tinubu declared a state of emergency in Rivers following the prolonged political standoff between Fubara and members of the House of Assembly loyal to the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike.
He subsequently suspended the governor, his deputy, Ngozi Odu, and lawmakers for six months and installed a sole administrator, Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ibas (rtd.), to manage the state’s affairs.
The decision sparked widespread controversy, with critics accusing the president of breaching the Constitution.
However, others hailed the move as a necessary and pragmatic step.