Business

Firm Foresees Record Growth Amid Fiscal Imbalances For Nigeria

Published

5 years ago

January 6, 2021

Nigeria will return to growth path in 2021 but external and fiscal imbalances will pose downside risks to the economy, sigma pensions Limited has predicated.
Sigma Pensions Limited, in its report released on Monday titled ‘Nigeria 2021 outlook: A return to normalcy, but tough policy choices lie ahead’, noted that Nigeria continued to grapple with the aftershocks of the coronavirus recession as external and fiscal imbalances propagate negative shocks across the exchange rate and inflation channel.
The report said resulting macroeconomic turmoil would require a return to credible policy settings, implying that more than ever before, the direction of policy responses would be crucial.
It said, “As with the global environment, we expect Nigeria’s economy to experience a V-shaped bounce back from a recession in 2020 as the removal of most COVID-19 restrictions should benefit the non-oil sector where the restrictions hurt activities badly.
“That said, oil output is likely to remain in recession as compliance with OPEC+ curbs restrains oil production to 1.7-1.8mbpd, a development likely to remain in place until H2 2021.
“The recovery in growth is where the good news ends. We view the combination of still weak oil exports and a resurgence in import demand pointing to large external imbalances over 2021.”
Given current policy settings around the exchange rate, the report saw limited options for financing the looming current account deficit and expected naira weakness over the year.
It said, “Alongside these FX pressures, we see soaring food prices, occasioned by an underwhelming 2020 crop harvest, border closures, higher electricity tariffs and petrol prices (following the move to remove gasoline subsidies) as fuelling a surge in inflation towards 16 per cent levels in 2021 (2020e: Avg. 13.2 per cent).
“Though the CBN has ignored inflationary pressures and muddled through the FX situation over 2020, we think the economy’s return to growth and the need to stem the widening parallel market premiums will drive a shift to monetary tightening at some point over 2021.”
According to the report, fiscal imbalances loom large for the second consecutive year with the Federal Government proposing another record deficit (N5.2tn) to be financed via large foreign and domestic borrowings.
It said in 2020, the liquidity fallout from CBN’s decision to bifurcate domestic Treasury bill markets spurred a rally across naira assets.
The report said, “In 2021, we think financing the projected fiscal deficit alongside CBN’s recently introduced CBN special bills could help drain the remaining portion of the large liquidity overhang.
“Accordingly, we expect the rebalancing across Nigeria’s financial markets to run its course over 2021, implying less-liquid conditions.

Business

Two Federal Agencies Enter Pack On Expansion, Sustainable Electricity In Niger Delta

Published

3 days ago

February 16, 2026

The Tide

The Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Rural Electrification Agency (REA) to expand access to reliable and sustainable electricity across the Niger Delta region.

The agreement, signed at the headquarters of the REA in Abuja, was targeted at strengthening institutional collaboration and accelerating development in underserved communities in the region.

A statement by the Director, Corporate Affairs of the NDDC, Seledi Thompson-Wakama, said the pact underscores renewed efforts by the two federal interventionist agencies to deepen cooperation and fast-track infrastructure delivery.

Speaking at the signing ceremony, the Managing Director of the NDDC, Dr Samuel Ogbuku, described the MoU as a strategic step towards realising the Commission’s vision to “light up the Niger Delta” in line with national priorities on distributed energy expansion.

Ogbuku said the agreement represents a shared institutional responsibility to deliver reliable energy solutions that will enhance livelihoods, stimulate local economies and create broader opportunities across the nine Niger Delta states.

According to him, electricity remains a critical enabler of national development, supporting job creation, healthcare delivery, education and inclusive economic growth.

He noted that the collaboration would help unlock the economic potential of rural communities while advancing broader national development objectives.

The NDDC boss added that the Commission has consistently adopted partnership-driven approaches in executing projects in the region and is prepared to support the implementation of the MoU by leveraging its community presence and infrastructure development capacity.

He reaffirmed the Commission’s commitment to working closely with the REA to ensure the timely and effective execution of the agreement.

The NDDC delegation at the event included the Executive Director, Projects, Dr Victor Antai; Executive Director, Corporate Services, Otunba Ifedayo Abegunde; Director, Legal Services, Mr Victor Arenyeka; Director, Finance and Supply, Mrs Kunemofa Asu; and Director, Liaison Office, Abuja, Mrs Mary Nwaeke.

In his remarks, the Managing Director of the REA, Dr Abba Abubakar Aliyu, described the MoU as a natural collaboration between two agencies with complementary mandates, reflecting a shared commitment to expanding access to sustainable electricity in rural communities.

Aliyu said the Niger Delta remains central to Nigeria’s economic fortunes and must be supported by infrastructure capable of driving productivity, enterprise and improved living standards, adding that the partnership signals readiness to deliver stable power to communities that have long awaited reliable electricity supply.

By: King Onunwor

Business

Why The AI Boom May Extend The Reign Of Natural Gas

Published

3 days ago

February 16, 2026

The Tide

Artificial intelligence is often viewed as a catalyst for electrification and subsequently decarbonization. Yet one of its most immediate effects may be the opposite of what many assume. The rapid buildout of AI infrastructure is increasing demand for reliable power, and that reality could strengthen the role of natural gas and other dispatchable energy sources for many years.

Investors focused on semiconductors and software valuations may be overlooking a key constraint. AI runs on electricity, and those electricity systems operate within physical and economic limits.

The energy sector has spent much of the past decade grappling with slow load growth. That is now changing, in a way that is reminiscent of the sharp rise in oil demand—and subsequently price—in the early 2000s.

Training large language models and operating advanced AI systems requires enormous computing resources. Hyperscale data centers are expanding rapidly, with developers requesting gigawatt-scale interconnections from utilities. In several regions, electricity demand forecasts have been revised upward after years of flat expectations.

This shift is significant because AI workloads create continuous, high-density demand rather than intermittent usage. Data centers cannot simply power down when the electricity supply becomes constrained. Reliability becomes paramount.

Wind and solar capacity continues to expand, but intermittent generation alone cannot meet the firm capacity needs of AI infrastructure without significant storage or backup generation.

Battery storage is improving, yet long-duration storage remains costly at scale. Nuclear projects face long development timelines and complex permitting hurdles. Transmission expansion also lags demand growth in many regions.

These constraints make dispatchable power sources critical. Natural gas plants can ramp quickly, operate continuously, and be deployed faster than many alternatives. As a result, gas-fired generation is increasingly viewed as a practical solution for supporting AI-driven load growth.

This does not undermine the role of renewables. In many markets, new renewable capacity is paired with gas generation to maintain grid stability. The key point is that AI-driven electrification is likely to increase fossil fuel usage in the near term.

Construction timelines favor gas-fired generation when demand rises quickly. Existing pipeline infrastructure reduces barriers to expansion. And for operators of data centers, reliability often outweighs ideological preferences. Downtime is simply too expensive.

Utilities are also revisiting resource plans as load forecasts rise. That shift may drive increased investment in transmission, grid modernization, and flexible generation assets.

The Decarbonization Story Is Complex

A common narrative holds that AI accelerates the transition away from fossil fuels because it increases electrification. The reality is more nuanced.

If electricity demand outpaces the buildout of low-carbon capacity, fossil generation may still increase in absolute terms even as renewables gain market share. Total emissions could rise, but the carbon intensity of the energy system may trend lower as cleaner sources make up a larger share of supply.

Ultimately, energy systems evolve based on engineering and economics, not just policy goals or market narratives.

Rising power demand could benefit utilities investing in transmission and generation capacity. Natural gas producers and midstream companies may see structural demand support from increased power-sector consumption. Equipment suppliers tied to grid reliability and gas turbines could also gain from the shift.

Longer term, advances in nuclear, storage, or efficiency may change the trajectory. For now, the immediate response to surging electricity demand is likely to rely on technologies that can be deployed quickly and reliably.

Artificial intelligence may reshape the economy in profound ways. One of the least appreciated consequences is that it may extend the relevance of natural gas as the world builds the energy backbone required to power the next generation of computing.

By: Robert Rapier

Business

Ogun To Join Oil-Producing States ……..As NNPCL Kicks Off Commercial Oil Production At Eba

Published

3 days ago

February 16, 2026

The Tide

Ogun State is set to join the comity of oil producing states in the country following the discovery and subsequent approval of commercial oil exploration activities in the Eba oil well, in Ogun Waterside Local Government Area of the state.

A technical team from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has visited the area as preparations are in advanced stage for commencement of commercial drilling operations in the state.

The inspection followed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s approval for commercial exploration, forming part of the federal government’s efforts to deploy the required technical capacity and infrastructure for production.

Officials of NNPCL carried out the exercise alongside representatives of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and national security agencies to evaluate the site and confirm its readiness for drilling activities.

The delegation was led by Project Coordinator for Enserv, Hussein Aliyu, who headed the NNPCL Enserv technical team.

Other members included Wasiu Adeniyi, Onwugba Kelechi, Engr. Rabiu M. Audu, Ojonoka Braimah, Ahmad Usman, Akinbosola Oluwaseyi, Salisu Nuhu, James Amezhinim, Yusuf Abdul-Azeez, Amararu Isukul and Livinus J. Kigbu.

Speaking, Governor Dapo Abiodun, described the development as a landmark achievement for Ogun State, saying “the commencement of drilling at Eba would stimulate economic growth, create employment opportunities and attract increased federal presence to the state’s coastal communities.

Abiodun also expressed appreciation to President Tinubu for his support toward the development of frontier oil basins and the equitable spread of the nation’s energy resources.

Recall that geological reports had earlier confirmed the presence of hydrocarbons within the Ogun Waterside axis, leading to preliminary surveys and technical engagements by NNPCL.

The Ogun State Government also carried out an independent verification of the oil well’s coordinates, affirming the discovery is located within the state’s boundaries.

To secure the project, naval security personnel have been deployed to the site for over 18 months, with the support of the Ogun State Government, to protect the facility and its environs.

The Eba oil well is regarded as part of Nigeria’s strategic move to expand oil production beyond the Niger Delta region.