Editorial
Still On The ‘Deadliest State’ Toga
When President Muhammadu Buhari de-
clared that Rivers State was the deadli-
est in Nigeria a few weeks ago, the response for and against was huge. Sadly, none of the responses was based on scientific reasoning. It was all emotions and politics and that only served to confuse the issue the more.
Security is at the very heart of governance and the people’s social, political and economic wellbeing. Statements on security should never be taken for granted or be confused with political or emotional convenience. In fact, if Nigeria is to grow and become a developed economy, it must first assure the security of the land.
Outrageous as the declaration of Rivers State as the deadliest State in the country may be, the fact must not be lost that it came from the Chief Security Officer of the land. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Nigeria, clearly has a wider picture of the state of affairs in Nigeria today.
On the other hand, if it is true that he was constrained to play politics with such a national duty, the nation should take note and, perhaps draw something beneficial from it. That an issue as heavy as being declared the deadliest state will come and go without any follow-up from any quarters is unsettling.
The Tide is of the view that if the President is convinced of the statement he made, by now something should have happened differently. As it is in the culture of governments, curfew would have been imposed in some places and security chiefs would have been changed with clear mandate for new commanders. Or was it a ruse?
On the other hand, we have not heard from the chiefs and people of Rivers State on the matter. Even as the State Government and its political party objected to the insinuation, the picture would have been clearer if the people have spoken up. This is because what that conclusion can do for the peace, economy and social life of the people is huge.
On the whole, what the international community will be interested in is the authenticity of the claim. In the first place, is there any institutional framework that feels the pulse and threats on the land and did they report any such danger to the President, did they note the causes and possible antidote?
In countries like the United States of America, things like this are not robed in politics. In fact, it is the home office and not the Presidency that issues such reports and also gives security advice. In those places it is well understood when it is said that alert level is either yellow or red. When will Nigeria get there and avoid using security reports to call a State a bad name so as to hang it.
The Tide is however not convinced that the President made that statement with the best intent. This is more so, because the basic indices that reflect the breakdown of law and order are not noticeable. Sometime ago, residents of Port Harcourt moved about with their hands in the air. That, thankfully is history.
Rivers State is the capital of the Petroleum Industry in Nigeria. As home to multi-national firms, one of the ways people notice crisis is when any of the firms declares a force majeure. This is a standard practice of stopping work in a particular place when the safety of lives and materials can no longer be guaranteed. We cannot recall the last time this was done in the State.
It is also a standard knowledge that the economy plunges in the face of insecurity. At least, television footages from Bornu make this very clear. But the Rivers State Governor, Chief Nyesom Ezenwo Wike said in a recent public event that the Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) of the State rose from five to N10 billion. This does not tell of an insecure State.
Indeed, the list of indications of conducive business environemnt is endless. Even International Flights come and go as ever, Federal Ministers and Senators come and go, Business kingpins come and go and members of the mass media report normal events. Our surprise is where the categorization of Rivers State as the deadliest came from.
As the conscience of the people, we are not saying that Rivers State does not have security challenges, but they are blown out of proportion. Like every other State, Rivers has her challenges with armed robbery, youth cultism and politically motivated violence. What is expected of the Federal Government is to use the forces under its command to quell the challenge and not to stigmatise.
We, however, cannot fail to note the effort of the military to mop-up arms in some local government areas before the re-run elections in Rivers State. But we have issues with the mode of operations, its selective application and the collateral damage, even on families of suspects and the innocent.
It is time for Nigeria to have a scientific assessment of security matters. It is time to develop the institutions to do so. It is time to get the best security advice to base the movement, investment and social activities of citizens of the country. No more politics, please.
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INEC’s Threat Alert Deserves Urgent Attention
The Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) disclosure of an alleged plot to target its ad hoc personnel ahead of the 2027 general elections demand urgent national attention. The reported arrest of suspects, with intelligence support from the Department of State Services (DSS), is encouraging, but must not breed complacency. Any attack on electoral workers threatens not only human lives but also Nigerians’ constitutional right to choose their leaders through credible elections. The alleged conspiracy must be thoroughly investigated, its sponsors identified and all those found culpable prosecuted.
Particularly troubling is the reported targeting of National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) members, who play a vital role in Nigeria’s electoral process. Many serve far from home and undertake sensitive assignments at polling units and other electoral locations. As civilians, they should not be exposed to intimidation, abduction or violence without adequate protection. If election workers are vulnerable, the safety of other officials, observers and voters cannot be guaranteed.
Nigeria’s electoral history offers painful lessons. Human Rights Watch reported in Nigeria’s Post-Election Violence, published in May 2011, that more than 800 people died in the violence following the 2011 general elections. NYSC members serving as electoral officials were among the victims. This tragedy underscores the deadly consequences of political tension, incitement and disputed outcomes. Nigeria must act on the latest warning before another preventable disaster occurs.
INEC deserves recognition for uncovering the alleged plot, while the DSS and other security agencies merit commendation for their reported assistance. However, arrests are only the beginning. Investigators must establish the suspects’ identities, motives, networks and intended targets, ensuring that evidence is admissible in court. The process must remain impartial and free from political interference. Credible public updates are also necessary, provided they do not compromise investigations or operational security.
The authorities must adopt a comprehensive, intelligence-led security strategy for 2027. INEC’s proposed security conference should produce practical measures developed in collaboration with the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES), the police, the DSS and other relevant agencies. Threat assessments should guide personnel deployment, secure transportation, emergency communications, evacuation procedures and rapid response. Protection must extend beyond polling day to the distribution of sensitive materials, collation centres and the safe return of ad hoc personnel.
Those who provide intelligence must also be protected from retaliation. Confidential reporting channels and appropriate safeguards should be established for informants and others assisting investigations. Equally, security deployments must not intimidate voters or facilitate political repression. Personnel should act professionally, impartially and proportionately, within the law. Clear mechanisms for reporting misconduct and investigating abuses are essential to maintaining public confidence.
The threat also highlights broader concerns about trust in the electoral system. The European Union Election Observation Mission’s June 2023 final report identified shortcomings in transparency and operational implementation during Nigeria’s 2023 general elections, alongside concerns about the legal framework and electoral dispute resolution. Credible elections require more than security; they depend on transparent procedures, accountable officials and consistent enforcement of electoral laws. INEC must demonstrate measurable progress in addressing previously identified weaknesses.
Voter apathy presents another challenge. INEC’s published figures indicate that approximately 25 million people voted in the 2023 presidential election, out of about 93.5 million registered voters, a turnout of roughly 26.7 per cent. Although insecurity is not the sole cause of low participation, threats against electoral personnel can heighten public anxiety and discourage voters from exercising their franchise. INEC should strengthen civic education, improve polling accessibility and communicate procedures clearly. Political parties, civil society and the media must promote peaceful participation and reject electoral intimidation.
Misinformation and manipulated digital content pose additional risks. False reports, fabricated announcements and deepfake videos can inflame tensions, impersonate officials and mislead voters. INEC should establish a well-resourced, rapid-response communication system supported by verified digital channels and timely public statements. Collaboration with credible media organisations and fact-checkers would help counter falsehoods without suppressing legitimate criticism. Clear, consistent communication is indispensable, as administrative confusion and delayed explanations often allow rumours to spread.
Electoral integrity must also begin within INEC itself. The chairman’s warning against partisanship, negligence, extortion and ethical misconduct deserves serious attention. Security measures cannot compensate for officials who abuse their positions or disregard established procedures. INEC should strengthen staff training, ensure transparent recruitment and deployment, provide secure channels for reporting misconduct and enforce disciplinary rules consistently. Allegations of bribery and political interference must be investigated regardless of rank, while ad hoc personnel should receive adequate briefing, support and prompt payment.
The legal framework also requires clarity and consistent enforcement. INEC should explain the precise provisions and applicability of Section 26 of the Electoral Act 2026, including the obligations of electoral officials and security personnel, and publish authoritative guidance on neutrality and professional conduct. Complaints by opposition parties that they have been prevented from campaigning in certain states must likewise be investigated impartially. Any established violations should attract appropriate corrective action. Electoral fairness requires not only impartial polling officials but also lawful campaigning, access to competing viewpoints and freedom from intimidation.
The alleged plot against INEC’s ad hoc personnel is a warning against complacency ahead of the 2027 general election. Governments, security agencies, INEC, political parties and civil society must work together to prevent violence, punish misconduct and protect citizens’ participation. The commission should communicate its security priorities, maintain accessible threat-reporting channels and provide periodic updates on preparedness. Nigeria’s democracy cannot be safeguarded by assurances alone; it requires demonstrable preparation, impartial law enforcement and an unwavering commitment to free, fair and credible elections.
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