Opinion
Is Dialogue The Answer?
If there is one person who has been consistent on the call for the
dialogue as a way of ending banditry in Nigeria, it is Sheikh Ahmad Gumi. The Kaduna-based Muslim cleric had during the government of Muhammadu Buhari, advocated for dialogue arguing that it will lead to the resolution of grievances, addressing root causes of banditry such as poverty, marginalisation, and lack of opportunities in affected communities and that by engaging in dialogue, it may be possible to persuade some bandits to lay down their arms, reintegrate into society, and pursue lawful means of livelihood. The cleric who claimed he had been voluntarily visiting the bandits in different locations across the northern part of the country, as his own contribution to solving the insecurity problem in the country, canvassed intensively for amnesty for the criminal Fulani herdsmen.
He called for dialogue, rehabilitation of the herders for there to be peace in the country. According to him, the herders are aggrieved by the way they are being treated by the government and other members of the Nigerian society; hence they resorted to banditry as a way of fighting the government. Making a case for the bandits he said: “They have genuine complaints. They feel oppressed by the government and the people in the society. They don’t have uniformed leadership, they don’t have lawyers, they don’t have people to speak for them, and they don’t have means of explaining their grievances to the people. Many Fulanis are killed in the bushes, nobody to speak for them. They use the money they make from kidnapping to buy weapons to fight the Nigerian government.” Sheikh Gumi, who confirmed the speculations that some of the bandits are foreigners, decried the lack of amenities like water, hospitals and schools in the bushes they choose to reside.
He suggested that the bandits be incorporated into the country’s security system, that they be placed on salaries, warning that “if Nigerians do not want this type of thing, Nigerians should be ready to be kidnapped.” Apparently, Buhari did not take his advice and may be that is why kidnapping has not abated in the country. Early in the week the respected cleric offered identical guidance to President Bola Tinubu, saying he should not repeat the mistake made by Buhari who refused to dialogue with bandits. He volunteered to negotiate with the bandits who abducted about 287 schoolchildren from Kuriga Government Secondary and LEA Primary Schools in Chikun Local Government Area of Kaduna State last week. Armed gangs have been terrorising the North-central, North-West and some other parts of the country for many years. Records have it that there were 18 abduction events targeting students across northern Nigeria between January 2018 and April 2021.
According to the Wisconsin-based Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), one of the world’s most reliable conflict data aggregators, bandits killed more than 2,600 civilians in 2021, an increase of over 250% from 2020. Records have it that between December 2020 and August 2021, more than 1,000 students and school staff were abducted. Within the next six months, as many as 343 people were killed, while 830 others were abducted by bandits between July and September 2021 in Kaduna state alone. The latest kidnapping incident at Chikun took place barely 24 hours after insurgents abducted 200 internally displaced women in Ngala Borno State, while fetching firewood in the bush. Yet someone says the president should have a round table discussion with the bandits?
For years, these criminals have been terrorising the citizens, killing them, destroying their houses, property and crops and making them homeless in their own country. The hunger and food crisis in the country currently can be traced to the bandits who have chased farmers away from their farm lands and ensured that those who dare to remain must pay taxes to them regularly. And someone is saying that the best way to stop the criminal act is to appease the criminals? The federal government once admitted that some of the bandits are non-Nigerians. Story had it that some of them are people recruited from neighbouring countries by some top Nigerian politicians to oust former President Goodluck Jonathan and claim power for the Fulani group. Even Gumi alluded to the claim that some of the bandits are not Nigerians.
How then can these non Nigerians be conscripted into our security agencies. Does it mean Nigeria is no longer a sovereign nation such that any group can build their own nation inside our nation with their own ideologies and be giving conditions for peace in the country? how can the criminals be given a part on the back after all the atrocities they committed? On the issue of being neglected and oppressed, the question is, who relegated the nomadic Fulanis to the bush? We have seen educated and enlightened people of the same ethnic origin come on air to defend their nomadic nature. Before his demise, the former Governor of Ondo State, Rotimi Akeredolu, issued a seven-day ultimatum to herders to vacate the state’s forest reserves and that became a big issue. Many ethnic groups across the country have asked them to leave the forests to towns as their cattle rearing business causes a colossal damage to their farming business and that was seen as a threat.
On the issue of education, in 1989, the National Commission for Nomadic Education was established by Decree 41 0f 1989 (now Cap 243 LFN 1990) to provide education to the nomadic pastoralists and migrant fisher folks, with the aim of providing functional and relevant education that will facilitate integrating the nomads into the national life and equip them to make favourable contributions to the nation’s socio–economic development. How many nomads have taken advantage of that? Shouldn’t the Sheikh and his likes be educating and sensitising the nomads to get educated through this means or make moves to make the commission function optimally if there is a problem in that regard? Bad governance at various levels is a problem being faced by many Nigerians. What then happens if all aggrieved persons and groups decide to take up arms against the government? The Niger Delta militants that were granted amnesty in the past had genuine reasons for their agitation.
On the other hand, the bandits are criminal elements who deserve to be arrested and dealt with in accordance with the laws of the land if the security agencies would work in the interest of the country and its citizens instead of seeing the insecurity situation in the country as an opportunity to enrich themselves. One thinks that it is high time the authorities mustered the political will to deal with banditry in the country. It has become a pure organised crime with multi-sectoral stakeholders in our governance system. Kidnapping for money has become a high profile criminal enterprise and the government should deal with it using the instruments of the law as it deserves instead of the usual empty threats that follow most reported kidnap incidents. We are tired of hearing that the government has given matching orders to security agencies to secure the release of kidnapped victims.
Nigerians want to hear and see that those in power are patriotic enough to do the needful to stem insecurity in the country and stop the ugly trend of criminals kidnapping harmless citizens for money. Nigerian leaders know what to do to solve the insecurity problem in different parts of the country. But negotiating with criminals should be out of the question because that may legitimise their actions and encourage further criminal behavior. Dialogue may also undermine the rule of law and send the wrong message about the state’s ability to enforce security. What is even the guarantee that should there be a dialogue that the bandits will be willing to adhere to any agreements reached through that process. If Tinubu has the political will to deal with banditry, insecurity and other forms of crime in the country, let action speak louder than words.
By:
Calista Ezeaku
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Opinion
Fuel Subsidy Removal and the Economic Implications for Nigerians
From all indications, Nigeria possesses enough human and material resources to become a true economic powerhouse in Africa. According to the National Population Commission (NPC, 2023), the country’s population has grown steadily within the last decade, presently standing at about 220 million people—mostly young, vibrant, and innovative. Nigeria also remains the sixth-largest oil producer in the world, with enormous reserves of gas, fertile agricultural land, and human capital.
Yet, despite this enormous potential, the country continues to grapple with underdevelopment, poverty, unemployment, and insecurity. Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, 2023) show that about 129 million Nigerians currently live below the poverty line. Most families can no longer afford basic necessities, even as the government continues to project a rosy economic picture.
The Subsidy Question
The removal of fuel subsidy in 2023 by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been one of the most controversial policy decisions in Nigeria’s recent history. According to the president, subsidy removal was designed to reduce fiscal burden, unify the foreign exchange rate, attract investment, curb inflation, and discourage excessive government borrowing.
While these objectives are theoretically sound, the reality for ordinary Nigerians has been severe hardship. Fuel prices more than tripled, transportation costs surged, and food inflation—already high—rose above 30% (NBS, 2023). The World Bank (2023) estimates that an additional 7.1 million Nigerians were pushed into poverty after subsidy removal.
A Critical Economic View
As an economist, I argue that the problem was not subsidy removal itself—which was inevitable—but the timing, sequencing, and structural gaps in Nigeria’s implementation.
- Structural Miscalculation
Nigeria’s four state-owned refineries remain nonfunctional. By removing subsidies without local refining capacity, the government exposed the economy to import-price pass-through effects—where global oil price shocks translate directly into domestic inflation. This was not just a timing issue but a fundamental policy miscalculation.
- Neglect of Social Safety Nets
Countries like Indonesia (2005) and Ghana (2005) removed subsidies successfully only after introducing cash transfers, transport vouchers, and food subsidies for the poor (World Bank, 2005). Nigeria, however, implemented removal abruptly, shifting the fiscal burden directly onto households without protection.
- Failure to Secure Food and Energy Alternatives
Fuel subsidy removal amplified existing weaknesses in agriculture and energy. Instead of sequencing reforms, government left Nigerians without refinery capacity, renewable energy alternatives, or mechanized agricultural productivity—all of which could have cushioned the shock.
Political and Public Concerns
Prominent leaders have echoed these concerns. Mr. Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, described the subsidy removal as “good but wrongly timed.” Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party also faulted the government’s hasty approach. Human rights activists like Obodoekwe Stive stressed that refineries should have been made functional first, to reduce the suffering of citizens.
This is not just political rhetoric—it reflects a widespread economic reality. When inflation climbs above 30%, when purchasing power collapses, and when households cannot meet basic needs, the promise of reform becomes overshadowed by social pain.
Broader Implications
The consequences of this policy are multidimensional:
- Inflationary Pressures – Food inflation above 30% has made nutrition unaffordable for many households.
- Rising Poverty – 7.1 million Nigerians have been newly pushed into poverty (World Bank, 2023).
- Middle-Class Erosion – Rising transport, rent, and healthcare costs are squeezing household incomes.
- Debt Concerns – Despite promises, government borrowing has continued, raising sustainability questions.
- Public Distrust – When government promises savings but citizens feel only pain, trust in leadership erodes.
In effect, subsidy removal without structural readiness has widened inequality and eroded social stability.
Missed Opportunities
Nigeria’s leaders had the chance to approach subsidy removal differently:
- Refinery Rehabilitation – Ensuring local refining to reduce exposure to global oil price shocks.
- Renewable Energy Investment – Diversifying energy through solar, hydro, and wind to reduce reliance on imported petroleum.
- Agricultural Productivity – Mechanization, irrigation, and smallholder financing could have boosted food supply and stabilized prices.
- Social Safety Nets – Conditional cash transfers, food vouchers, and transport subsidies could have protected the most vulnerable.
Instead, reform came abruptly, leaving citizens to absorb all the pain while waiting for theoretical long-term benefits.
Conclusion: Reform With a Human Face
Fuel subsidy removal was inevitable, but Nigeria’s approach has worsened hardship for millions. True reform must go beyond fiscal savings to protect citizens.
Economic policy is not judged only by its efficiency but by its humanity. A well-sequenced reform could have balanced fiscal responsibility with equity, ensuring that ordinary Nigerians were not crushed under the weight of sudden change.
Nigeria has the resources, population, and resilience to lead Africa’s economy. But leadership requires foresight. It requires policies that are inclusive, humane, and strategically sequenced.
Reform without equity is displacement of poverty, not development. If Nigeria truly seeks progress, its policies must wear a human face.
References
- National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). (2023). Poverty and Inequality Report. Abuja.
- National Population Commission (NPC). (2023). Population Estimates. Abuja.
- World Bank. (2023). Nigeria Development Update. Washington, DC.
- World Bank. (2005). Fuel Subsidy Reforms: Lessons from Indonesia and Ghana. Washington, DC.
- OPEC. (2023). Annual Statistical Bulletin. Vienna.
By: Amarachi Amaugo
