Given the apparent dwindling fortune of the Naira, the House of Representatives recently asked the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to quickly put in place a policy to check further devaluation of the Naira to the United States dollar and other international legal tenders. The House decried that while the Nigerian currency was relinquishing value, others in Africa were appreciating.
The CBN officially devalued the Naira to N410.25 per dollar after the country’s currency defied all interventions to retain its value. However, some financial experts have said that the new exchange rate would lead to inflation and increase the poverty level in the country. Justifying the diminishing value of the currency, Governor of the CBN, Godwin Emefiele, said that the drop in crude oil earnings and the associated reduction in foreign portfolio inflows significantly affected the supply of foreign exchange into Nigeria.
Curiously, while the value of the Naira relative to the dollar had declined by a whopping nine per cent in the last six months, the South African rand and Ghanaian cedi had appreciated by 11.4 per cent and one per cent, respectively. To save the Naira, the CBN adopted multiple exchange rates in 2020, in a bid to avoid an outright devaluation without success.
It has become profoundly disturbing that the frequent devaluation is already causing inflation since imports have become more prohibitive. Any imported goods or raw material increases in price and the increase in aggregate demand causes demand-pull inflation. Firms and exporters have less incentive to cut costs because they can rely on the devaluation to improve competitiveness.
It is equally unsettling that the long-term devaluation is already leading to lower productivity because of the decline in incentives. Also, the depreciation of the Naira makes it more difficult for Nigerian youths, especially in the Information Technology (IT) sector, whose businesses are online and must necessarily transact businesses in the US dollars. In a period of low wage growth, a diminishment that causes rising import prices will make many consumers feel worse off as is being experienced.
A hasty look at the direction of Nigeria’s international trade shows the problems of the strong currency syndrome in a single source foreign exchange earning dominated economy. In 2018, Nigeria exported a total of $59.5 billion worth of goods. Crude ($44,8bn) and petroleum gas ($8.61bn) alone accounting for nearly 90 per cent of export. In the same year, Nigeria imported goods totalling $48.7bn with refined petroleum ($9.95bn) alone accounting for over 20 per cent of all imports.
Similar trends were recorded before and even after the referenced year. It is, therefore, not difficult to see that there is nothing to achieve from devaluation since the main product we export (crude oil) is already priced in USD, and we will not relish any benefit from increase in demand following price drop, since our production volume is closed off in OPEC quota.
A former President, Association of National Accountants of Nigeria, Dr Sam Nzekwe, had declared that the regular devaluation of the Naira would result in imported inflation because importers would get more expensive forex from the Bureau de Change. He said, “Prices of goods and services will keep on going up; inflation will keep on going up because anyone who is importing, either raw material or finished goods, the prices will be very high. The agricultural sector that is supposed to be cushioning the situation, the people cannot do anything because of the insecurity issues. They cannot go to farm; so we are unable to take advantage of the comparative advantage in agriculture because of activities of bandits.”
Similarly, a Professor of Economics, Babcock University and past President, Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, Prof. Segun Ajibola, noted that the CBN had been trying to defend the value of the Naira to achieve some stability. However, he said there was little the apex bank could do because of the exposure to the foreign market. According to Ajibola, “The implication is, we are likely to witness cost push inflation because inflation will rise and they will pass that to the end users that are consumers, so the overall impact is that it will likely worsen poverty. The poverty index is likely to rise.”
Truth is, the greatest casualty of Naira’s incessant devaluation is our industrialisation drive which becomes more expensive to finance and further delays the take-off of the much desired private sector-led industrialisation. Former British Prime Minister, late Margaret Thatcher, in 1990, was once quoted to have said that “to destroy a country, first debauch their currency”. Regrettably, this is what we are ignorantly doing to ourselves.
Unfortunately, constant devaluation has put the Naira among the worst performing currencies globally in the last four decades. Despite the systematic devaluation in the last 40 years, Nigeria and Nigerians are yet to experience the benefits of currency depreciation advocates promised. It appears that Mark Carney, a former Governor of Bank of England, might be right when he emphatically stated that currency “depreciations are how you make the economy poorer”.
Economists and financial experts have often warned that currency devaluation is a bad monetary policy for a nation with no significant export industries. Knowing where we are currently in terms of power generation, logistics, infrastructure and technological know-how, Nigeria would not likely have a competitive export-oriented industry soon, more so when the huge domestic market is yet to be dominated by our home-based industries. Until Nigeria’s market is largely monopolized by locally produced goods, the nation is unlikely to see any gain in the continued devaluation of the national currency.