Oil & Energy

Oil Market: Nigeria’s Crude Output Drops

Published

5 years ago

March 12, 2021

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has put Nigeria’s February, 2021, oil output at 1.4 million barrels per day, mb/d, excluding Condensate.
This, according to the March Oil Market Report, yesterday, showed a drop of 17.6 per cent when compared to the 1.7 mb/d produced in the corresponding period of 2020.
The cut in output is mainly driven by the quest of Nigeria to comply with the OPEC oil reduction directive, targeted at achieving stability in the global market.
Nevertheless, at the current price, Nigeria would not be under pressure to raise adequate funds for the execution of its 2021 budget, which was based on $40 per barrel, and 1.8 mb/d.
However, the report stated, “For 2021, world oil demand is expected at 5.9 mb/d, to stand at 96.3 mb/d. Oil requirements in the first half (1H21) are adjusted lower, mainly due to extended measures to control Covid-19 in many key parts of Europe. In addition, elevated unemployment rates in the US slowed the recovery process.
“In contrast, oil demand in the second half (2H21) is adjusted higher, reflecting expectations for a stronger economic recovery with the positive impact of vaccination rollouts.
“In regional terms, OECD oil demand is expected to increase by 2.6 mb/d in 2021 to stand at 44.6 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is seen rising by 3.3 mb/d to average 51.6 mb/d.”
Meanwhile, the price of Brent and Nigeria’s Bonny Light, which had risen to $70 per barrel, because of a recent drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facility, has dropped to $69.31 and $66.03 per barrel respectively.
However, OPEC expects that the global oil demand would rise from 93.22million barrels per day, mb/d to 97.94 mb/d, thus recording an increase of 5.06 per cent between the first and fourth quarter of 2021, as many countries continue to tackle the Coronavirus pandemic.
It stated that Quarter on Quarter, QoQ, the global oil demand would stand at 93.22 mb/d in the first quarter (January – March) of 2021, showing an increase of 0.13 per cent compared to 93.10 mb/d recorded in the corresponding period of 2020.
It further showed that QoQ, it would rise to 95.92 mb/d in the second quarter (April-June) of 2021, indicating an increase of 14.4 per cent, compared to 83.82 mb/d recorded in the corresponding period of 2020.
Also, it showed that the demand would hit 97.02 mb/d in the third quarter (July-September) of 2021, showing an increase of 6.4 per cent, compared to 91.18 mb/d, recorded in the corresponding period of 2020.
The report also showed that the demand would further rise to 97.94 mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2021, indicating an increase of 4.3% compared to 93.89 mb/d recorded in the corresponding period of 2020.
The target or prediction is to rising from its crucial meeting recently, OPEC also stated, “The meeting emphasized the ongoing positive contributions of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) in supporting a rebalancing of the global oil market in line with the historic decisions taken at the 10th (Extraordinary) OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on April 12, 2020 to adjust downwards overall crude oil production and subsequent decisions.
“The ministers noted, with gratitude, the significant voluntary extra supply reduction made by Saudi Arabia, which took effect on February 1, for two months, which supported the stability of the market.
“The ministers also commended Saudi Arabia for the extension of the additional voluntary adjustments of one mb/d for the month of April, 2021, exemplifying its leadership, and demonstrating its flexible and pre-emptive approach.
“The ministers approved a continuation of the production levels of March for the month of April, with the exception of Russia and Kazakhstan, which will be allowed to increase production by 130 and 20 thousand barrels per day respectively, due to continued seasonal consumption patterns.
“The meeting reviewed the monthly report prepared by the Joint Technical Committee (JTC), including the crude oil production data for the month of February.
“It welcomed the positive performance of participating countries. Overall conformity with the original decision was 103 per cent, reinforcing the trend of aggregate high conformity by participating countries.
“The Meeting noted that since the April, 2020 meeting, OPEC and non-OPEC countries had withheld 2.3bn barrels of oil by end of January, 2021, accelerating the oil market rebalancing.
“The meeting extended special thanks to Nigeria for achieving full conformity in January, 2021, and compensating its entire overproduced volumes.
“The ministers thanked Minister of State for Petroleum Resources of Nigeria, Timipre Sylva, for his shuttle diplomacy as Special Envoy of the JMMC to Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and South Sudan to discuss matters pertaining to conformity levels with the voluntary production adjustments and compensation of over-produced volumes.
“In this regards the ministers agreed to the request by several countries, which have not yet completed their compensation, for an extension of the compensation period until the end of July, 2021.
“It urged all participants to achieve full conformity and make up for previous compensation shortfalls, to reach the objective of market rebalancing, and avoid undue delay in the process.
“The meeting observed that in December, stocks in OECD countries had fallen for the fifth consecutive month.
“The meeting recognized the recent improvement in the market sentiment by the acceptance and the rollout of vaccine programs and additional stimulus packages in key economies, but cautioned all participating countries to remain vigilant and flexible given the uncertain market conditions, and to remain on the course which had been voluntarily decided and which had hitherto reaped rewards.”

Oil & Energy

No Subsidy In Oil, Gas Sector — NMDPRA

Published

7 days ago

September 8, 2025

The Tide

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has said there are no subsidies in the oil and gas sector as Nigeria operates a completely deregulated market.

The Director, Public Affairs Department, NMDPRA, George Ene-Italy, made this known in an interview with newsmen, in Abuja, at the Weekend.

Reacting to the recent reports that the Federal Government has removed subsidies or increased the price of Compressed Natural Gas (CBG), Ene-Italy said, “What we have is a baseline price for our gas resources, including CNG as dictated by the Petroleum Industry Act”.

He insisted that as long as the prevailing CNG market price conforms to the baseline, then the pricing is legitimate.

Furthermore, the Presidential – Compressed Natural Gas Initiative (P-CNGI) had said that no directive or policy had been issued by the Federal Government to alter CNG pump prices.

The P-CNGI boss, Michael Oluwagbemi, emphasised that the recent pump price adjustments announced by certain operators were purely private-sector decisions and not the outcome of any government directive or policy.

For absolute clarity, it said that while pricing matters fell under the purview of the appropriate regulatory agencies, no directive or policy had been issued by the Federal Government to alter CNG pump prices.

The P-CNGI said its mandate, as directed by President Bola Tinubu, was to catalyse the development of the CNG mobility market and ensure the adoption of a cheaper, cleaner, and more sustainable alternative fuel and diesel nationwide.

Oil & Energy

‘Nigeria’s GDP’ll Hit $357bn, If Power Supply Gets To 8,000MW’

Published

7 days ago

September 8, 2025

The Tide

The Managing Director, Financial Derivatives Company Limited (FDC), Bismarck Rewane, has said that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could rise to $357b if electricity supply would increase from the present 4.500MW to 8,000MW.

Rewane also noted that Nigeria has spent not less than $30 billion in the power sector in 26 years only to increase the country’s power generation by mere 500MW, from 4,500 MW in 1999 to 5,000MW in 2025 though the sector has installed capacity to generate 13,000 MW.

In his presentation at the Lagos Business School (LBS) Executive Breakfast Session, titled “Nigeria Bailout or Lights Out: The Power Sector in a Free Fall”, Rewane insisted that the way out for the power sector that has N4.3 trillion indebtedness to banks would be either a bailout or lights out for Nigeria with its attendant consequences.

He said, “According to the World Bank, a 1.0 per cent increase in electricity consumption is associated with a 0.5 to 0.6 per cent rise in GDP.

“If power supply rises to 8000MW, from current 4500MW, the bailout shifts money from government into investment, raising consumption and productivity. And, due to multiplier effects, GDP could rise to $357 billion.”

The FDC’s Chief Executive said “in the last 30 years, Nigeria has invested not less than $30 billon to solve an intractable power supply problem.

“The initiatives, which started in 1999 when the power generated from the grid was as low as 4,500MW, have proved to be a failure at best.

“Twenty-six years later, and after five presidential administrations, the country is still generating 5,000MW. Nigeria is ranked as being in the lowest percentile of electricity per capita in the world.

“The way out is a bailout, or it is lights out for Nigeria”, he warned.

He traced the origin of the huge debts of the power sector to its privatisation under President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration, when many of the investors thought they had hit a jackpot, only to find out to their consternation that they had bought a poisoned chalice.

Rewane, who defined a bailout as “injection of money into a business or institution that would otherwise face an imminent collapse”, noted that the bailout may be injected as loans, subsidies, guarantees or equity for the purpose of stabilising markets, protect jobs and restore confidence.

He said, “The President has promised to consider a financial bailout for the Gencos and Discos. With a total indebtedness of N4.3 trillion to the banking system, the debt has shackled growth in the sector.”

Rewane warned that without implementing the bailouts for the power sector, the GENCOs and DISCOs would shut down at the risk of nationwide blackout.

Rewane, however, noted that implementing a bailout for the power sector could have a positive effect on the country’s economy if Nigeria’s actual power generation could rise from today’s 4,500 MW to around 8,000 and 10,000 MW.

The immediate gains, according to him, would include improved power generation and distribution capacity, more reliable electricity supply to homes and businesses as well as cost reflective tariffs.

Oil & Energy

NEITI Blames Oil, Gas Sector Theft On Mass Layoff

Published

7 days ago

September 8, 2025

The Tide

The Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) has blamed the increasing crude oil theft across the nation on the persistent layoff of skilled workers in the oil and gas sector.

The Executive Secretary, NEITI, Orji Ogbonnaya Orji, stated this during an interview with newsmen in Abuja.

Orji said from investigations, many of the retrenched workers, who possess rare technical skills in pipeline management and welding, often turn to illicit networks that steal crude from pipelines and offshore facilities.

In his words, “You can’t steal oil without skill. The pipelines are sometimes deep underwater. Nigerians trained in welding and pipeline management get laid off, and when they are jobless, they become available to those who want to steal crude”.

He explained that oil theft requires extraordinary expertise and is not the work of “ordinary people in the creeks”, stressing that most of those involved were once trained by the same industry they now undermine.

According to him, many retrenched workers have formed consortia and offer their services to oil thieves, further complicating efforts to secure production facilities.

“This is why we told the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) to take this seriously. The laying off of skilled labour in oil and gas must stop”, he added.

While noting that oil theft has reduced in recent times due to tighter security coordination, Orji warned, however, that the failure to address its root causes, including unemployment among technically trained oil workers would continue to expose the country to losses.

According to him, between 2021 and 2023, Nigeria lost 687.65 million barrels of crude to theft, according to NEITI’s latest report. Orji said though theft dropped by 73 per cent in 2023, with 7.6 million barrels stolen compared to 36.6 million barrels in 2022, the figure still translates to billions of dollars in lost revenues.

Orji emphasised that beyond revenue, crude oil theft also undermines national security, as proceeds are used to finance terrorism and money laundering.

“It’s more expensive to keep losing crude than to build the kind of monitoring infrastructure Saudi Arabia has. Nigeria has what it takes to do the same”, he stated.