Opinion
Which Way Nigeria?
With the damning reports of violence, murder, arson from last weekend’s election in Bayelsa and Kogi States, one cannot help but join the late music legend, Sunny Okosun, to ask “Which Way Nigeria?”
Seeing the quantum of problem facing the nation – corruption, poverty, inflation, inefficiency and many more, the Ozzidi band leader released the hit song in 1984, asking where the country was headed and calling on all and sundry to join hands to save it from dying.
Sorrowfully, 35 years later, the story has not changed. Some even say the situation is worse now. The gap between the rich and the poor keeps widening, a few people have everything while many have nothing. The ruling class is dominated by greedy, selfish politicians who will do anything to get into power or remain in power. They have turned elections in the country to war where innocent people’s blood are spilled with reckless abandon and members of opposition political parties intimidated and molested.
Around the world, the issue of underrepresentation of women in politics and decision making is receiving considerable attention because it has been recognized that inclusion in political participation is a fundamental aspect of modern democracy. Improved representation of women has been shown to have benefits such as economic change, improved policy changes, peace building and others.
Many countries are, therefore, working hard to bridge the gap between male and female participation in politics with some African countries like Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, and Namibia, making the list of top 15 countries in the world with highest number of female representation in politics. They are said to have 64, 42.7, 41.7, 41.3, and 39.6 per cent female representation in politics, respectively.
In Nigeria, however, the reverse seems to be the case. The number of female law makers and top politicians is still a far cry from the affirmative action principle. In the current National Assembly, for instance, out of 406 lawmakers, we have only 18 women (seven senators and eleven House of Representatives members). In the immediate past 8th Assembly, women occupied eight out of 109 Senate seats and 22 out of 360 seats in the House of Representatives. The story was not different in the preceding years, where minute percentages of the lawmakers both at the federal and state levels were women.
In the 59 years of existence of the country as an independent entity, only one woman, Dame Virgy Etiaba, has occupied the position of a governor, an authority she assumed following the impeachment of the then Governor of Anambra State, Mr Peter Obi, by the state Assembly in 2007. She was on the seat for only three months before going back to being the Deputy Governor following Obi’s re-instatement after the Court of Appeal nullified his impeachment.
It is, therefore, saddening to hear or read reports about women who are making efforts to participate in politics despite the high cost of electioneering campaigns and other logistics, being molested, abused or even killed. In the just concluded Kogi State election, a female governorship candidate of the Social Democratic Party, Natasha Akpoti, was allegedly attacked and molested by thugs believed to be loyal to the incumbent governor, Yahaya Bello, at the venue of INEC stakeholders’ meeting in Lokoja in the full glare of police officers and other security agencies.
Watching her narrate her ordeal on a national television drew tears to my eyes. She was called all kinds of unprintable names just because she is a woman trying to exercise her legal rights. In the end, she had to leave the venue and did not take part in the meeting. Earlier, her party’s secretariat was reportedly razed and valuable properties and documents destroyed.
Also in Kogi, the PDP Women Leader, Mrs Acheju Salome Abuh, was on Monday murdered in cold blood in her home by suspected political thugs. They were said to have poured petrol on the building and set it ablaze and waited, shooting and watching with relish while Mrs Abuh cried from inside the inferno until her voice died out. The blood thirty thugs reportedly left only when the victim and the entire house had been burnt to ashes.
Now tell me, how many women will be bold to participate in politics, particularly in that community, after such dastardly act? How many women, and even men, will be willing to stick out their necks in our war-like elections where anybody’s life could be taken at any time? Many of us must have watched the heart-rending video of the burial of a youth corps member whose life was cut short during the Kogi election. Every election increases the number of people killed in election violence in the country.
The most worrisome thing is that perpetrators of these heinous crimes are never apprehended nor punished. At most, we hear the police announce that some of them have been arrested and will be brought to book but we hardly see that happen. After the initial “noise”, mostly by civil society groups and other concerned bodies and individuals, we carry on as if nothing happened.
And one continues to wonder how the nation can move forward in this manner. Former President Goodluck Jonathan once declared that his political ambition was not worth the blood of any citizen but our current leaders think otherwise. They don’t care even if all the people perish for them to win an election.
As many concerned individuals have suggested, we truly need a whole lot of value reorientation. We need to be reminded that violence does not pay and that peace is paramount in life. Political positions should also be made less attractive to reduce the clamour for them. It is also important that the Electoral Law Amendment Bill be re-introduced at the National Assembly, with all the necessary amendments made so that it can hopefully receive Mr. President’s assent. This will possibly make room for electronic voting as well as address most of the anomalies we have in our current electoral system.
By: Calista Ezeaku
From all indications, Nigeria possesses enough human and material resources to become a true economic powerhouse in Africa. According to the National Population Commission (NPC, 2023), the country’s population has grown steadily within the last decade, presently standing at about 220 million people—mostly young, vibrant, and innovative. Nigeria also remains the sixth-largest oil producer in the world, with enormous reserves of gas, fertile agricultural land, and human capital.
Yet, despite this enormous potential, the country continues to grapple with underdevelopment, poverty, unemployment, and insecurity. Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, 2023) show that about 129 million Nigerians currently live below the poverty line. Most families can no longer afford basic necessities, even as the government continues to project a rosy economic picture.
The Subsidy Question
The removal of fuel subsidy in 2023 by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been one of the most controversial policy decisions in Nigeria’s recent history. According to the president, subsidy removal was designed to reduce fiscal burden, unify the foreign exchange rate, attract investment, curb inflation, and discourage excessive government borrowing.
While these objectives are theoretically sound, the reality for ordinary Nigerians has been severe hardship. Fuel prices more than tripled, transportation costs surged, and food inflation—already high—rose above 30% (NBS, 2023). The World Bank (2023) estimates that an additional 7.1 million Nigerians were pushed into poverty after subsidy removal.
A Critical Economic View
As an economist, I argue that the problem was not subsidy removal itself—which was inevitable—but the timing, sequencing, and structural gaps in Nigeria’s implementation.
- Structural Miscalculation
Nigeria’s four state-owned refineries remain nonfunctional. By removing subsidies without local refining capacity, the government exposed the economy to import-price pass-through effects—where global oil price shocks translate directly into domestic inflation. This was not just a timing issue but a fundamental policy miscalculation.
- Neglect of Social Safety Nets
Countries like Indonesia (2005) and Ghana (2005) removed subsidies successfully only after introducing cash transfers, transport vouchers, and food subsidies for the poor (World Bank, 2005). Nigeria, however, implemented removal abruptly, shifting the fiscal burden directly onto households without protection.
- Failure to Secure Food and Energy Alternatives
Fuel subsidy removal amplified existing weaknesses in agriculture and energy. Instead of sequencing reforms, government left Nigerians without refinery capacity, renewable energy alternatives, or mechanized agricultural productivity—all of which could have cushioned the shock.
Political and Public Concerns
Prominent leaders have echoed these concerns. Mr. Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, described the subsidy removal as “good but wrongly timed.” Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party also faulted the government’s hasty approach. Human rights activists like Obodoekwe Stive stressed that refineries should have been made functional first, to reduce the suffering of citizens.
This is not just political rhetoric—it reflects a widespread economic reality. When inflation climbs above 30%, when purchasing power collapses, and when households cannot meet basic needs, the promise of reform becomes overshadowed by social pain.
Broader Implications
The consequences of this policy are multidimensional:
- Inflationary Pressures – Food inflation above 30% has made nutrition unaffordable for many households.
- Rising Poverty – 7.1 million Nigerians have been newly pushed into poverty (World Bank, 2023).
- Middle-Class Erosion – Rising transport, rent, and healthcare costs are squeezing household incomes.
- Debt Concerns – Despite promises, government borrowing has continued, raising sustainability questions.
- Public Distrust – When government promises savings but citizens feel only pain, trust in leadership erodes.
In effect, subsidy removal without structural readiness has widened inequality and eroded social stability.
Missed Opportunities
Nigeria’s leaders had the chance to approach subsidy removal differently:
- Refinery Rehabilitation – Ensuring local refining to reduce exposure to global oil price shocks.
- Renewable Energy Investment – Diversifying energy through solar, hydro, and wind to reduce reliance on imported petroleum.
- Agricultural Productivity – Mechanization, irrigation, and smallholder financing could have boosted food supply and stabilized prices.
- Social Safety Nets – Conditional cash transfers, food vouchers, and transport subsidies could have protected the most vulnerable.
Instead, reform came abruptly, leaving citizens to absorb all the pain while waiting for theoretical long-term benefits.
Conclusion: Reform With a Human Face
Fuel subsidy removal was inevitable, but Nigeria’s approach has worsened hardship for millions. True reform must go beyond fiscal savings to protect citizens.
Economic policy is not judged only by its efficiency but by its humanity. A well-sequenced reform could have balanced fiscal responsibility with equity, ensuring that ordinary Nigerians were not crushed under the weight of sudden change.
Nigeria has the resources, population, and resilience to lead Africa’s economy. But leadership requires foresight. It requires policies that are inclusive, humane, and strategically sequenced.
Reform without equity is displacement of poverty, not development. If Nigeria truly seeks progress, its policies must wear a human face.
References
- National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). (2023). Poverty and Inequality Report. Abuja.
- National Population Commission (NPC). (2023). Population Estimates. Abuja.
- World Bank. (2023). Nigeria Development Update. Washington, DC.
- World Bank. (2005). Fuel Subsidy Reforms: Lessons from Indonesia and Ghana. Washington, DC.
- OPEC. (2023). Annual Statistical Bulletin. Vienna.
By: Amarachi Amaugo
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