Although Nigeria is Africa’s largest oil producer, it is also one of the continent’s largest importer of refined petroleum products.
However, despite being a net importer of refined petroleum products, including petrol, no Nigerian government agency has the authentic data on the daily petrol consumption in the country, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has declared.
The Statistician General of the Federation, Yemi Kale, told our correspondent that all data currently in circulation in the media and some government agencies were either outdated or guesstimates.
Mr Kale, who spoke in Abuja through his technical assistant, Esiri Ojo, during a telephone interview with our reporter, said these estimated data cannot be relied upon for planning or policy decisions.
“At the moment we (NBS) do not have any reliable data on fuel consumption yet. We are working on a survey that would provide the information for the sector. Every other figure you hear being carried about by various agencies, and even the media, are just guesstimates,” Mr Ojo said.
The NBS is Nigeria’s central repository of all data and statistics on all activities in all sectors of the country’s economy.
The spokesperson of state-owned oil company, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Ndu Ughamadu, also confirmed the country was yet to have reliable fuel consumption data.
“The NNPC has no confirmed data or statistics on fuel consumption in the country. The corporation relies on figures provided by PPPRA (Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency),” Mr Ughamadu said in a telephone chat with our correspondent.
Fuel marketers used the figure to make subsidy claims from government for supply of petroleum products.
On February 7, 2017, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Ibe Kachikwu, told a House of Representatives committee that daily consumption of petrol was 28 million litres.
The minister said the figure dropped from about 50-55 million litres a day that the PPPRA was using for fuel subsidy payment.
The NBS’ latest petroleum products consumption statistics is November 2016. In the publication, the agency said about 12.66 billion litres of petrol was consumed in the country between January and September of the year.
The number of days between January 1, 2016 and September 30, 2016 were 273, or eight months and 29 days. The Bureau said the figure translated to about 51.87 million litres per day.
But, the figure is higher than the petrol consumption data published by NNPC in its annual statistics bulletin on its website.
The publication showed about 17.41 billion litres, or 47.6 million litres per day of petrol was distributed in 2016.
In the wake of the recent fuel crisis in the country, the Group Managing Director of the NNPC, Maikanti Baru, triggered another controversy over the issue.
In March this year, during a meeting with the Comptroller General of Customs, Hameed Ali, Mr Baru said under-recovery (considered by many to be a veiled name for subsidy) cost per annum by the NNPC was estimated at about N774 billion for petrol supply.
But, Mr Ughamadu, clarified to our correspondent that the figure Mr Baru gave was not “real expenditure”.
He said it was a mere projection based on the price of crude oil at a certain level at the international market and the landing cost of fuel in the country.
With increasing crude oil price in the international market and a corresponding increase in petrol importation cost, Mr Ughamadu said there was a huge price differential between the regulated price at the pump and the deregulated market price in the neighbouring countries.
What this means is: With retail petrol price fixed at about N145 per litre and open market price above N171 per litre, the differential price stands at N26 per litre.
Based on a projection of about 35 million litres per day consumption, the level of under-recovery, or subsidy, will come to about N774 billion per annum.
Mr Ughamadu said the under-recovery of N774 billion per annum was based on projections on the volume of fuel consumption per day and the price of crude oil at the international oil market.
A breakdown of the figure will come to about N64.5 billion per month, or N2.081 billion per day.
With the price differential between the open market price of N171 and the approved retail price of N145 per litre, further analysis shows an average daily consumption of about 30 million litres.
The NNPC spokesperson said in recent times petrol evacuation from depots witnessed an abnormal upsurge, from below 30 million litres per day in August 2017 to an average of over 50 million litres. He said figure later rose to a peak of about 84.2 million litres on December 8, 2017.
“The higher the price of crude oil, the higher the landing cost and the price of petroleum products at the pump in the country,” he said.
Based on NNPC projections, if petroleum consumption rises to about 45 million litres per day, under-recovery cost would equally rise to about N993 billion per annum.
At 50 million litres per day, the under-recovery will grow to N1.11trillion; 55 million litres per day (N1.22 trillion); 60 million litres per day (N1.33 trillion); 65 million litres per day (N1.44trillion) and 70 million litres per day (N1.55 trillion) per annum.
A fortnight ago, Mr Kachikwu also said the under-recovery cost had risen to about N1.4 trillion per annum, an indication that the petroleum resources ministry may have based the petrol consumption level at NNPC projection of 65 million litres per day.
Although the minster later withdrew the the statement on the figures, he said the Ministry of Petroleum Resources was working with some agencies to produce an authentic figure that would soon be made public.
Mr Kachikwu may have made a veiled reference to the survey the NBS said it was currently working on in collaboration the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, NNPC, PPPRA and Petroleum Equalisation Fund to produce an authentic data on fuel consumption in the country.
Mr Ojo said the survey would involve household and industrial players in the economy, to provide accurate and authentic figures of fuel consumption going forward.
Meanwhile, the Committee on Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) of the House of Representatives has been told that it was criminal for the federal government to expend a whooping sum of $1.2 billion on importation of petrol into the country in one year.
An expert in the oil and gas sector, Dr. Austine Olorunsola made the declaration while fielding questions from the committee chaired by Hon. Ado Doguwa during an interactive session organised by the Petroleum Development Trust Fund (PTDF) on PIB.
A member of the committee, Hon. Sunday Karimi had provoked some thoughts, remarking that the current administration under President Muhammadu Buhari has consistently denied spending money on subsidy despite revelations by the NNPC that it’s spending N1.4trillion annually to bring in the product.
But responding, Olorunsola, who led a technical team of experts in the drafting and presentation of different components of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) said the importation was unnecessary, explaining that the money was enough to build new refineries.
He said: “It’s criminal to spend $1.2billion to bring in products. You can use that amount to build three to four big refineries if you want.
“You can even use that money to open up the market by giving soft loans to private investors if government is not interested in building refineries to establish them so that we can stop importation and create employment”.
The PIB according to the consultant was split into four different components, namely: the Petroleum Industry Governance Bill (PIGB), the Petroleum Industry Administration Bill (PIAB), the Petroleum Industry Fiscal Bill (PIFB), and the Petroleum Industry Host Community Bill (PHCB).
Olorunsola, who also took the committee members through the technical details of different components of the PIB, made up of four proposed legislations underscored the importance of the bill, saying it would engender comprehensive governance of the oil and gas sector in a way that would generate maximum returns to the stakeholders.
He however cautioned the country on over independence on oil, urging that the proceeds be used to diversify the economy to keep pace with other oil economies.
“Nigeria must timely exploit her oil and gas resources to realise maximum value for rapid development of her economy.
“So, we need to move pretty fast. The US today has become the biggest producer of oil which wasn’t so about eight years ago.
“Now, China has retired most of its coal energy sources and diversified into renewable energy sources with a sea of solar panels being assembled to power cities and industries.
“So, the dynamics are changing as those who were importing before are now exporting, which is why we need to do something different and fast. If you don’t do something quickly about what you have, the value of it will be completely eroded.
“The essence of managing oil resources is to provide the best possible economic outcome for all stakeholders, ensure optimal utilisation of all infrastructure ; to ensure operations is managed in safe and environmentally sustainable manner. To satisfy today and ensure sufficient savings for the rainy day and future generations”, Olorunsola said.
He urged the Deputy Chairman of the Ad-hoc Committee, Hon. Victor Nwokolo (PDP, Delta) who is incidentally the chairman, House Committee on Petroleum (Upstream), and indeed, the National Assembly at large to pass the remaining three bills along with the PIGB for onward delivery to president Buhari for his assent.