For the past two weeks, my rambunctious neighbours have
turned into my alarm clock. They usually rouse me from sleep during the early
hours with their boisterous arguments over happenings in the country. Amongst
them is “Old Soldier’’- an ex military man whose voice is always on top of
others.

Usually, their debate would start by 5am, when one of them a
menial worker would wake to take his bath. Once he was out of the bathroom, the
debate would ensue and stretch till about 6am before he dashes out for work.

Last week, however, after waking from their loud debate, I
decided to eavesdrop on their conversation and was caught by the topic in
contention.

“Old Soldier’’ was
leading the argument this time with some sort of unusual disposition. He was
arguing over the threat posed by Boko Haram to the unity of the country. He
seemed to be cocksure that the country, despite the violence and killings, may
not eventually break up. The other guys, who by far were his junior in age,
were seriously pitched against him. After a long bout of shouting the old
soldier said, “worse things have happened in this country before all of you
were born. I fought the civil war and we saw worse things yet Nigeria did not
break’’.

Old Soldier who was a veteran during the 30 month civil war
had fought on the Nigerian side after which he served for another 10 years
before voluntarily leaving service. He had spoken from experience and the other
guys saw him as inordinately optimistic and refused to agree with him. After a
while, they continued in their verbal combat and later veered into other
mundane issues, when I finally rose from my bed to commence preparation for the
days work.

While at the office that morning, my mind continued to flash
on the discussion. I was troubled when I later learnt of Boko Haram’s attack on
Deeper Life Church at Kogi and another attack in Plateau.

Few days later, former self acclaimed Niger Delta Activist,
Alhaji Asari Dokubo broke his silence and threatened back. He warned the
Northern elements to stop the brigandage and killings, stressing that the South
was ready to go, especially if the Presidency was threatened. Hardly had he
finished that a group from the North labelled Arewa Youths replied. The group
emphasised that they were not afraid of war mongers as Asari.

Hardly had the dust settled when a self acclaimed Ogoni
leader, Goodluck Diigbo announced in far away Netherlands that the Ogonis had
seceded. He announced that the Ogonis were no longer part of the country. He
argued that the Ogonis have suffered over 50 years of oil exploration,
environmental degradation and neglect by the Federal Government and that the
recent UNEP Report was like putting salt on a sore wound. The failure of the
Federal Government to implement the report, according to him, was a real
pointer that the Ogonis were aliens in the Nigerian polity.

But while we were still talking about the Ogoni secession
quest, the Bakassi people declared self determination. For them, the ceding of
their fatherland was not only sacrilegious, it was devious and inhuman. Until
date they are yet to full grasp with the reality that they had been hounded out
of their ancestral home by few judges, who sat in the Hague and decided their
fate.

Considering all these developments, one can easily fall to
the trap that Nigeria’s future is indeed bleak. Fortunately, this is not the
first time the country is facing this grim picture. One can still recall the
aftermath of the June 12 election annulment in 1993. Shortly after that
infamous annulment by President Babangida, most part of the West were torn by
violence. A lot of people from the North, South-South and Eastern parts ran
home in droves with the fear that Nigeria was at the precipice. At the end,
Nigeria came out of that inglorious era to wax stronger.

Similar scenario is now facing us again and unfortunately
under a civilian regime. This time, a lot of factors seem not to be in favour
of die hard pessimists who believe the Boko Haram was the final straw that may
break the camel’s back. Aside all these, one do not see the country breaking
even if the doom seers may easily cite the US prediction in 2015.

Two factors are responsible for this rascal optimism about
Nigeria’s future. The first is the issue of diversity and the other hovers on
the issue of national cake. For those who are not benefitting from the booty
called Nigeria, division seems to be the answer. This class of people are in
the majority but do not have the political weight and economic power to achieve
this. The truth is that the fat cats would never allow their source of booty to
go.

The truth is that diversity has never worked to Nigeria’s
advantage. Its promoters are bunch of deceits who benefit from the system. The
diversity they preach about suits their selfish interest. The reality is that
the core Hausa oligarchy would not concede to the break. He understands that
his oil bloc are in the South and would do everything to secure it. The
Southern man would hardly buy the secession bid when once he is given the
minutest political position in Abuja. So, there would continue to be tight rope
situation. The analysis may be faltered, but a serious truth lies in between.

For now, it might be difficult to break the country because
all these strange happenings are mere facade put up by power mongers. The
current scenario is a quest for power control and once this is settled, one
would not be surprised to see the elastic spring returning back to its size.

Already, drum for power return to the North has started
playing and 2015 would witness more ground shifting. Though this may not be
absolutely true, but I am sure the country is far from dividing.

However, in order not to take chances it is pertinent that a
National Sovereign Conference is convened because there are issues thatif not
addressed now, may continue to drag the country back just like a man who
elapses in and out of coma. Once the issue of national unity is addressed, then
the federating units need to confer on their future.

Other issues that need to be addressed include those of
corruption, power sharing formula, revenue sharing formula and infrastructure
covering roads, rail, power and water provision. Unless these are done, Nigeria
would still be walking the tight rope.