Business
Finance Minister Predicts $12bn Revenue Shortfall
The Minister of Finance,
Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, has said that the revenue earned by the country this year may be as much as $12 billion short of budget estimates as crude oil theft and output disruptions persist in the oil-rich Niger Delta.
The minister said the government would draw down its oil savings in the Excess Crude Account to compensate for the drop in revenue to keep the budget deficit under control, according to a The Tide’s source.
Savings in the special crude account have dropped by half as President Goodluck Jonathan’s government tries to make up for the drop in oil revenue and fund a deficit that has reached 2.5 per cent, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria.
With the 2013 budget based on a daily output of 2.53 million barrels and an oil price of $79 a barrel, the country expects revenue of almost $80bn from exports.
In the first half of the year, oil receipts amounted to $28.2bn, more than $7bn below the estimate, according to Central Bank figures.
“What is amazing now is that we’ve had this quantity of shock and we were able to weather it. You can say theft, but it’s still a quantity shock,” Okonjo-Iweala said.
Nigeria depends on crude exports for about 80 per cent of government revenue and 95 per cent of export income.
According to Bloomberg, criminal gangs tapping oil from pipelines for illegal sale have posed the biggest threat to output since a government amnesty in 2009 reduced armed attacks led by rebels fighting for greater control of the region’s resources.
The Director of the Budget Office, Mr. Bright Okogu, who sat in on the interview with the minister, said the revenue shortfall due to output disruptions would probably be between $6bn and $12bn.
The government saves the balance of oil revenue above the budgeted price in the Excess Crude Account, which had a balance of just under $5bn, down from about $9bn, at the beginning of the year, according to Okonjo-Iweala.
The country’s vulnerability to shocks is heightened because of lower government revenue from oil, putting pressure on the currency, the CBN Governor, Lamido Sanusi, said in an interview in Oslo.
He said, “The great challenge now is that the fiscal buffers are not as strong as they would be because of the revenue shortfall.
“If there are any adverse external developments, that will feed into this weak revenue profile and put pressure on exchange rates.”
The Central Bank draws down its foreign currency reserves to sell dollars at twice-weekly auctions to keep the currency within a band of three per cent around 155 per dollar.
The naira gained 0.2 per cent to 158.73 against the dollar on the interbank market in Lagos on Friday.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) yesterday said 33 banks have met new minimum capital requirements under its recapitalisation programme, raising a combined N4.65 trillion to strengthen the financial system.
The apex bank disclosed this in a statement marking the end of the exercise, which commenced in March 2024 and drew participation from domestic and foreign investors.
The statement was jointly signed by the Director of Banking Supervision, Olubukola Akinwunmi, and the Acting Director of Corporate Communications, Hakama Sidi-Ali.
The statement said “Over the 24-month period, Nigerian banks raised a total of N4.65tn in new capital, strengthening the resilience of the financial system and enhancing its capacity to support the economy.”
The regulator said local investors accounted for 72.55 per cent of the funds, while international investors contributed 27.45 per cent, reflecting continued confidence in the sector.
Commenting on the outcome, the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said in the statement, “The recapitalisation programme has strengthened the capital base of Nigerian banks, reinforcing the resilience of the financial system and ensuring it is well-positioned to support economic growth and withstand domestic and external shocks.”
It added that while 33 banks have complied with the new thresholds, a few others are still undergoing regulatory and legal processes.
The statement noted, “The CBN confirms that 33 banks have met the revised minimum capital requirements established under the programme.
“A limited number of institutions remain subject to ongoing regulatory and judicial processes, which are being addressed through established supervisory and legal frameworks.
“All banks remain fully operational, ensuring continued access to banking services for customers.”
The apex bank stressed that the exercise was executed without disrupting banking operations, ensuring uninterrupted access to services nationwide.
It further stated that key prudential indicators have improved, particularly capital adequacy ratios, which remain above global Basel benchmarks.
The minimum ratios were set at 10 per cent for regional and national banks and 15 per cent for banks with international licences.
The bank also said the recapitalisation coincided with a gradual exit from regulatory forbearance, a move it said improved asset quality, strengthened balance sheet transparency, and enhanced overall stability.
To preserve these gains, the CBN said it has reinforced its risk-based supervision framework, mandating periodic stress tests and adequate capital buffers for banks.
It added that supervisory and prudential guidelines would be reviewed regularly to strengthen governance, risk management, and resilience across the sector.
“The successful completion of the programme establishes a stronger and more resilient banking system, better positioned to support lending, mobilise savings, and withstand domestic and global shocks,” the statement said.
The Tide learnt that foreign capital inflows into Nigeria’s banking sector rose by 93.25 per cent year-on-year to $13.53bn in 2025, up from $7.00bn recorded in 2024, amid the ongoing recapitalisation drive by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics capital importation report showed that the banking sector remained the dominant destination for foreign capital, accounting for $13.53bn of the total $23.22bn recorded in 2025, representing 58.26 per cent of total inflows, up from 56.81 per cent in 2024.
The surge reflects heightened investor interest in Nigerian banks as they raised fresh capital to meet new regulatory thresholds introduced by the apex bank, with industry-wide recapitalisation activities driving large-scale inflows across all quarters of the year.
However, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) recently raised concerns over weak credit flows to small businesses despite recent banking sector reforms.
The CPPE, led by a renowned economist, Dr Muda Yusuf, acknowledged that the ongoing bank recapitalisation exercise by the CBN has strengthened the financial system, but warned that the benefits have yet to translate into meaningful support for the real economy.
The facility will be disbursed through participating Microfinance Institutions (MFIs), which will in turn extend the loans to their customers, particularly SMEs, as they directly interface with businesses at the grassroots level.
The Executive Director of COMCIN, Mr. Micheal Ogbaa who represented the Chairman, Dr. Iredele Oyedele (FCA, FCCA), said the initiative is designed to strengthen micro-lending institutions and expand access to finance for grassroots entrepreneurs, particularly women and youths in the informal sector.
Ogbaa explained that COMCIN does not lend directly to individuals but works through its network of microfinance and cooperative institutions, which in turn provide loans to end users.
“We came together to advocate for the microfinance ecosystem. Commercial banks often exclude people at the grassroots, but our members are positioned to reach them. This facility will empower them to do more,” he said.
He noted that the loan scheme offers low interest rates and flexible repayment plans, making it more accessible to small business owners.
According to him, about 90 percent of beneficiaries are expected to be women, who play a key role in sustaining families and driving economic activities at the local level.
“Our focus is on traders, service providers, and players in the informal sector. These are the real movers of the economy. By supporting them, we are strengthening families and contributing to national development,” he added.
Ogbaa disclosed that eligible SMEs with proven integrity and business track records could access up to N5 million each through participating micro-lending institutions. The rollout has commenced in Lagos and will extend to Abuja, Enugu, and other regions, including the South-West, South-East, and North-East.
He said 12 micro-lending institutions have already benefited from the scheme, while 85 applications are currently being processed under the pilot phase.
“Our target is to reach at least 100,000 SMEs nationwide. We are building a platform that connects funding partners with credible micro-lending institutions, creating a reliable channel for financial inclusion,” Ogbaa said.
He added that COMCIN is also working to attract larger funding pools from development finance institutions and private investors, noting that successful implementation of the pilot phase would boost confidence and unlock more capital for SMEs.
“We have seen encouraging testimonies from early beneficiaries. As we demonstrate transparency and efficiency, more institutions will be willing to channel funds through us,” he said.
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