The Minister of Finance,
Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, has said that the revenue earned by the country this year may be as much as $12 billion short of budget estimates as crude oil theft and output disruptions persist in the oil-rich Niger Delta.
The minister said the government would draw down its oil savings in the Excess Crude Account to compensate for the drop in revenue to keep the budget deficit under control, according to a The Tide’s source.
Savings in the special crude account have dropped by half as President Goodluck Jonathan’s government tries to make up for the drop in oil revenue and fund a deficit that has reached 2.5 per cent, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria.
With the 2013 budget based on a daily output of 2.53 million barrels and an oil price of $79 a barrel, the country expects revenue of almost $80bn from exports.
In the first half of the year, oil receipts amounted to $28.2bn, more than $7bn below the estimate, according to Central Bank figures.
“What is amazing now is that we’ve had this quantity of shock and we were able to weather it. You can say theft, but it’s still a quantity shock,” Okonjo-Iweala said.
Nigeria depends on crude exports for about 80 per cent of government revenue and 95 per cent of export income.
According to Bloomberg, criminal gangs tapping oil from pipelines for illegal sale have posed the biggest threat to output since a government amnesty in 2009 reduced armed attacks led by rebels fighting for greater control of the region’s resources.
The Director of the Budget Office, Mr. Bright Okogu, who sat in on the interview with the minister, said the revenue shortfall due to output disruptions would probably be between $6bn and $12bn.
The government saves the balance of oil revenue above the budgeted price in the Excess Crude Account, which had a balance of just under $5bn, down from about $9bn, at the beginning of the year, according to Okonjo-Iweala.
The country’s vulnerability to shocks is heightened because of lower government revenue from oil, putting pressure on the currency, the CBN Governor, Lamido Sanusi, said in an interview in Oslo.
He said, “The great challenge now is that the fiscal buffers are not as strong as they would be because of the revenue shortfall.
“If there are any adverse external developments, that will feed into this weak revenue profile and put pressure on exchange rates.”
The Central Bank draws down its foreign currency reserves to sell dollars at twice-weekly auctions to keep the currency within a band of three per cent around 155 per dollar.
The naira gained 0.2 per cent to 158.73 against the dollar on the interbank market in Lagos on Friday.