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Nigeria, Others May Lose $10bn To Political Tensions – IMF
The International Monetary Fund has said Nigeria could lose an estimated $10bn of foreign direct investment and official development assistance inflows to geo-political tensions.
The IMF in its country focus on Sub-Saharan Africa, released on Monday, said the figure is about a half per cent of the nation’s annual Gross Domestic Product.
The Washington-based lender said, “The losses could be compounded if capital flows between trade blocs were cut-off because of geo-political tensions. The region could lose an estimated $10bn of foreign direct investments and official development assistance inflow is about half a percent of GDP a year based on an average 2017–19 estimate). The reduction in FDI, in the long run, could also hinder much-needed technology transfer.”
IMF further said that if geopolitical tensions were to escalate, countries could be hit by higher import prices or even lose access to key export markets.
It added that about half of Sub-Saharan Africa’s value of global trade could be impacted.
The Washington-based lender also said that Sub-Saharan Africa could stand to lose the most if the world split into two isolated trading blocs centered on China or the United States and the European Union.
The IMF added the region’s economy could experience a permanent decline of up to four percent of its gross domestic product after 10 years.
“Sub-Saharan Africa could stand to lose the most if the world were to split into two isolated trading blocs centered around China or the United States and the European Union. In this severe scenario, sub-Saharan African economies could experience a permanent decline of up to four per cent of the real Gross Domestic Product after 10 years. According to our estimates, these are losses larger than what most countries experienced during the global financial crisis.”
According to IMF, economic and trade alliances with new economic partners, predominantly China, have benefited the region.
According to the report, economic trade alliances have also made countries reliant on imports of food and energy more susceptible to global shocks, including disruptions from the surge in trade restrictions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
It added, “For countries looking to restructure their debt, deepening geo-economic fragmen¬tation could also worsen coordination problems among creditors. The region would fare better if only the US/EU cut ties with Russia and sub-Saharan African countries continue to trade freely. In this scenario trade flows would be diverted towards the rest of the world, creating opportunities for new partnerships, and possibly boosting intra-regional trade.”
However, IMF said that because some African countries benefit from access to new export markets and cheaper imports, the region would not incur a GDP loss.
It added that oil exporters supplying energy to Europe could even gain. IMF called for strengthening the African Continental Free Trade Area to better manage these shocks properly.
It added, “To better manage shocks, countries need to build resilience. This can be done by strengthening the ongoing regional trade integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area, which will require reducing tariff and non-tariff trade barriers, strengthening efficiency in customs, leveraging digitalization, and closing the infrastructure gaps. Deepening domestic financial markets can also broaden sources of financing and lower the volatility associated with relying too much on foreign inflows. To take advantage of the potential shifts in trade and FDI flows, countries in the region can try to identify and nurture sectors that may benefit from trade diversion like energy. Commodity exporters in the region could potentially displace much of Russia’s energy market share in Europe.”
IMF advised countries in the region to rely on trade promotion agencies to help identify potential opportunities and build the necessary skills and capacity for exports.
“Countries can also rely on trade promotion agencies to help identify potential opportunities, build the necessary skills and capacity for exports, and eventually re-orient production to take advantage of new trade flows. Improving the business environment by lowering entry, regulatory, and tax barriers could also help. What the exact outcomes will be from fragmentation and polarization, and whether these trends will continue are uncertain. What is clear, however, are multilateral institutions will need to continue to facilitate dialogue among nations to promote economic integration and cooperation.”
The Governor of Rivers State, Sir Siminalayi Fubara, has begun the celebration of Nigeria’s 65th Independence anniversary with a Juma’at service where prayers were offered for the progress of the state and Nigeria.
Governor Fubara, who advocated for peace and unity of Nigeria during the prayers on Friday at the Rivers State Central Mosque, Port Harcourt, indicated that without peace, the accelerated development of Nigeria will remain in a limbo.
Governor Fubara, who was represented by Alhaji Abdurrazaq Diepriye, therefore urged citizens to remain patriotic.
According to him, “Allah has brought us this far. Without peace, we can not have progress and economic development. I call on all citizens irrespective of creed or tribe to remain patriotic.”
He thanked President Bola Tinubu for restoring peace in Rivers State while also using the forum to appreciate security agencies for their relentless effort in upholding the peace and unity of Rivers State and Nigeria.
The Chief Imam of Rivers State Central Mosque, Imam Ibrahim Yaloo, admonished Moslem faithful to always speak the truth, adding that those who obey Allah will be directed to good deeds and their sins forgiven.
Prayers were offered for Rivers State and Nigeria.
Other activities to mark the 65th Independence anniversary in the state include an Inter-denominational Church Thanksgiving Service on Sunday, 28th September and Parade Ceremony on Wednesday, 1st October.
Vice-President Kashim Shettima departed New York on Sunday after representing President Bola Tinubu at the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly.
In a statement released on Sunday by the VP media aide, Stanley Nkwocha, the Vice President is now headed to Germany, where he will hold strategic meetings with officials of Deutsche Bank.
The statement read, “Vice President Kashim Shettima has departed New York, United States, after successfully representing President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, at the 80th Session of the United Nations General Assembly.
“During his participation at UNGA 80, VP Shettima secured UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ commendation for Nigeria’s bid for a permanent UN Security Council seat.
“He also showcased Nigeria’s $200 billion energy transition opportunity to global investors and strengthened strategic partnerships with the UK on trade, defence, and migration issues.”
Nkwocha added that the VP delivered Tinubu’s national statement, calling for UN reforms and a permanent seat for Nigeria at the UN Security Council, and “demanded Africa’s control over its $700 billion mineral wealth, and digital inclusion initiatives.”
“He also engaged with the Gates Foundation on healthcare and education expansion, positioning Nigeria as the natural hub for the African Continental Free Trade Area’s $3.4 trillion market.
“VP Shettima was seen off at John F. Kennedy International Airport, New York, by cabinet Ministers who were part of the UNGA 80 delegation and Nigerian Mission officials.”
The aide noted that Shettima will return to Nigeria immediately after his engagements in Germany.
The Tide source recalls that the VP departed Abuja, yesterday.
He led other Nigerian officials at the Assembly.
As part of Nigeria’s 65th Independence anniversary celebration, the Federal Government held a special thanksgiving service on Sunday at the National Ecumenical Centre in Abuja to offer prayers and give thanks for the nation.
The event drew top government officials and security chiefs, including Senate President Godswill Akpabio and Secretary to the Government of the Federation, George Akume, as well as their spouses.
Other notable guests included Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy Wale Edun, former Plateau State Governor, Senator Simon Lalong, and the Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa, who led the service chiefs in attendance.
Service chiefs present included the Chief of Naval Staff, Vice-Admiral Emmanuel Ogala, Inspector-General of Police Kayode Egbetokun, Comptroller-General of the Nigerian Immigration Service, Mrs Kemi Nandap and Controller-General of the Nigerian Correctional Service, Sylvester Nwakuche, among others.00
The service came days after the government unveiled the official theme and some of the activities slated for the 2025 Independence celebrations.
This year’s anniversary is tagged “Nigeria @ 65: All Hands on Deck for a Greater Nation,” as announced by the Director of Information and Public Relations at the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Segun Imohiosen, in a statement on Wednesday.
“As part of activities to mark the 65th Independence Anniversary, the Juma’at Prayer and the Inter-Denominational Church Service will be held on Friday, 26th September at 1 pm and Sunday, 28th September at 10 am respectively, as well as the World Press Conference on Monday, 29th September at 10 am,” he said.
The Tide source had earlier reported that President Bola Tinubu, alongside former Heads of State, Yakubu Gowon, Olusegun Obasanjo and Goodluck Jonathan, is expected as a special guest at a national discourse convened by the Island Club, Lagos, to mark Nigeria’s 65th Independence Anniversary.
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