Politics
How Obama’ll Pocket 271 Electoral Votes To Win US Poll
President Barack Obama is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney’s attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio, according to an Associated Press analysis a week before Election Day.
While the Democratic incumbent has the upper hand in the electoral vote hunt, Romney has pulled even, or is slightly ahead, in polling in a few pivotal states, including Florida and Virginia. The Republican challenger also appears to have the advantage in North Carolina, the most conservative of the hotly contested nine states that will determine the winner.
While in a tight race with Obama for the popular vote, Romney continues to have fewer state-by-state paths than Obama to reach 270. Without Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, Romney would need last-minute victories in nearly all the remaining up-for-grabs states and manage to pick off key states now leaning Obama’s way, such as Iowa or Wisconsin.
Analysis shows that Obama probably would win with at least 271 electoral votes from 21 states, including Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa, and the District of Columbia. Romney seems on track for 206 from 23 states, including North Carolina. Obama won that state in 2008 and campaigned aggressively there this year. But Obama’s team acknowledges it is the most difficult state for him to win, and he’s paid less attention to it recently.
Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia, with a combined 61 votes at stake, could go either way.
“I’m counting on Iowa! Iowa may be the place that decides who the next president is!” Romney said on one of two visits to the state last week. In Ohio last week, a hoarse Obama reminded a Cleveland audience near the end of a six-state marathon: “I need you, Ohio. America needs you, Ohio.”
Romney is banking on what his supporters say is late momentum. Obama is betting that his aggressive effort to register and lock in early voters, mainly Democratic-leaning younger and minority voters, will give him an insurmountable advantage heading into Election Day, when more Republicans typically vote than Democrats.
About 35 percent of voters are expected to cast their ballots before November. 6, either in person or by mail. More than 5 million people already have voted. No votes will be counted until November 6, but some states report the party affiliation of people who have voted. Democrats have the edge in Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina, according to state figures and data collected by the United States Elections Project at George Mason University. Republicans have the early edge in Colorado.
Obama, who won in 2008 in places where Democrats had not for a generation, continues to have several routes to electoral victory. His easiest: win Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin, which are leaning his way. He could keep the White House with victories in Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada. If he loses Ohio, he could prevail by sweeping New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Colorado.
Romney has fewer options. He must carry Florida and Virginia, where Republicans are feeling good about his standing, as well as wrest control of Ohio, and then also win Nevada, Colorado or New Hampshire. If he loses Ohio, Romney must make up for the state’s 18 electoral votes by cutting his way through Obama-leaning territory.
At the top of that target list are Wisconsin, carried by Democrats in six straight presidential elections and where Obama has the edge, and Iowa, a perennial swing-voting state.
Ohio is a lynchpin for both candidates.
Obama was in strong standing in the state before the three presidential debates. But Romney’s strong performance in the debates helped him gain ground. But Republicans and Democrats alike now say that any momentum Romney had in Ohio from those debates has run its course, and the state gain is leaning toward Obama. New public polls show a tight race.
Operatives in both parties point to the last debate six days ago, and Obama’s criticism of Romney’s opposition to the automotive industry bailout. They say the criticism was effective in branding Romney as out of touch with working-class voters in a state whose manufacturing economy relies heavily on the car and auto parts industries.
The president started running a new TV ad in the state assailing Romney’s position on the aid. Obama’s internal polling in Ohio has shown a slight increase in support from white, working-class voters, an important part of Ohio’s largely blue-collar electorate.
“That is a killer,’” Tad Devine, a top aide to 2004 and 2000 Democratic nominees, said of the heat Romney is taking for his bailout position. “And it’s going to have the biggest impact in the decisive state in the outcome of the election.”
Out of necessity, Romney is refusing to cede ground in Ohio, where no Republican has lost and then gone on to win the presidency. He hunkered down in the state for two days last week, and running mate Paul Ryan headlined eight events in the state over the weekend. The impending storm that’s set to hit the East Coast led Romney to cancel Virginia campaigning on Sunday and join Ryan in Ohio.
In Ohio alone, Romney and allied groups were spending nearly $9 million on television ads, compared with Obama and his allies’ $6 million, and showed no signs of letting up in the final week.
Elsewhere, Obama is looking to stunt any Romney inroad with suburban women, a pivotal constituency, in Colorado and Virginia, by casting the Republican as an extremist on abortion and hammering him on his opposition to federal money for Planned Parenthood.
In Nevada, Romney is banking on the support of fellow Mormons, and noting the high unemployment and foreclosure rates, to overtake Obama. But the president’s team is appearing ever more confident of winning the state, partly because of the backing of a booming Hispanic population.
Florida, the biggest battleground prize with 29 electoral votes, is viewed by both sides as a tight. Democrats acknowledge that Romney’s standing has improved because of his debate performances and could move out of reach for Obama in the coming days.
Associated Press writer Julie Pace in Washington contributed to this report.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has begun deploying non-sensitive materials to the zones as it prepares for the 2027 general election.
Acting Chairman of the commission, Prof. Rhoda Gumus, disclosed this in Abuja, yesterday at a bench-marking meeting with a delegation of Kenya’s Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).
“Right now, all non-sensitive materials are almost ready. In fact, today as we speak here, the non-sensitive materials have been lifted to some zones now,” Gumus said.
She said the commission had completed nine of its scheduled activities and was preparing for the next phase.
“We are preparing for the election next year and we have activities lined up. So far, we have been able to complete nine activities and we are still preparing for the next level of activities,” she said.
Gumus said the commission’s leadership had just concluded a tour of the country’s six zones to assess their level of preparedness.
“The purpose was to go round the zones to see how prepared we are, assess what the zones have put in place, their challenges and what to do. We concluded last week and we can see from our tour that we are really going towards the election proper,” she said.
On Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs), the acting chairman said production had been completed and distribution to the states was well advanced.
“As of today, we can say that PVCs have been produced and the first, second batches, most of the states have received them. Their PVC collection is ongoing. All those who are supposed to be the voters are supposed to receive their PVCs, and if they don’t have them, it is also another challenge,” Gumus said.
She added that capacity building was under way for staff at the headquarters and in the states, and that the procurement and deployment of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System BVAS devices were also ongoing.
On diaspora voting, Gumus said the commission could not proceed for now because the law did not provide for it.
“Here, because we go by the law, in our electoral law, it is not included there, so we cannot go on for the diaspora voting for now until we amend the electoral law,” she said.
The acting chairman said the commission had arranged for its directors to hold an interactive session with the Kenyan team and present papers on the work of their departments.
Leading the delegation, the Kenyan High Commissioner to Nigeria, Isaac Parashina, said the IEBC team was in Nigeria to benchmark ahead of Kenya’s general election in August 2027.
He said the team was studying how Nigeria handled its diaspora population and special voting groups, as Kenya sought to widen voting rights for citizens living abroad.
“Currently we have about 12 of them who voted in the last general election, but there is intention to expand to around, I think, 26,” Parashina said, referring to the countries where Kenyans abroad vote.
He said the expansion was a constitutional requirement backed by Kenyan court rulings, and would be enforced progressively.
Parashina said Nigeria’s election, which he noted would come in two rounds, would be closely watched across Africa.
“Everyone is looking at what Nigeria will do because it is the biggest democracy in Africa. The success of Nigeria remains a great success to Kenya and indeed to the continent,” he added.
The High Commissioner thanked INEC for receiving the team despite a tight schedule and wished the commission success.
Governor Douye Diri has set a target of at least one million votes for President Bola Tinubu in Bayelsa State in the 2027 presidential election, while charging the newly inaugurated All Progressives Congress (APC) State Campaign Council to prioritise reconciliation, party unity and collective electoral mobilisation.
Governor Diri gave the charge at the inauguration of the 20-member campaign council at the APC secretariat in Yenagoa, where he warned that internal divisions could undermine the party’s efforts to secure victory for President Tinubu and other candidates at the federal and state levels.
Governor Diri urged party members who were not appointed to the council to support its activities by taking the APC’s message to communities, wards and polling units across the state.
He specifically charged the campaign team to mobilise at least one million votes for President Tinubu, arguing that Bayelsa’s voting strength had increased and should be reflected in the 2027 election results.
“I give you a target that in Bayelsa, we must not bring less than one million votes for Mr President. You are going to campaign, and you have a lot to talk about the President. He has done so much for our people,” the governor said.
He listed the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, the second phase of the Nembe-Brass Road, interventions in the power sector, federal appointments for Bayelsa indigenes and the establishment of the Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy among the achievements the campaign should present to voters.
The governor particularly praised President Tinubu for the coastal highway project, arguing that it reflected federal attention to the development needs of coastal communities.
“No president, alive or dead, has remembered the coastal people and coastal states to say let us do this signature project from Lagos to Calabar. The first president to think about it is Bola Tinubu, and those were the demands of the Ijaw people,” he said.
Governor Diri also expressed hope that a second term for President Tinubu would provide an opportunity to advance demands for fiscal federalism, greater resource control and state policing, which he described as longstanding aspirations of the Niger Delta.
He said the President had shown indications of addressing some of the demands of younger Nigerians and argued that re-election would allow the administration to consolidate its reforms.
The governor further cautioned campaigners against personal attacks and abusive exchanges with political opponents, insisting that the APC should focus its campaign on issues, policies and achievements.
The governor’s mobilisation directive comes amid criticism from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which has questioned his commitment to President Tinubu’s re-election campaign, alleging that APC campaign billboards erected across Yenagoa promote other party candidates without featuring the President.
The PDP, through its Publicity Secretary, Mr Ikaebimo Mark, said the billboards showed Governor Diri urging voters to support APC candidates for the National Assembly and State House of Assembly elections without identifying President Tinubu as the party’s presidential candidate.
Mr Mark described the omission as an indication that the governor was not fully aligned with the APC’s national leadership.
“When we said that the governor, Senator Douye Diri, is not supporting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, we knew exactly what we were saying. Now Governor Douye Diri has erected APC campaign billboards across Bayelsa State without Tinubu’s picture. He is even afraid to associate himself with the photograph of the presidential candidate of his own party. How can this governor claim to be supporting President Tinubu?” he said.
The PDP, however, maintained that the governor’s public campaign posture raised questions about his commitment to the President’s re-election bid. Its allegation over the billboards now places the issue of the relationship between the state APC leadership and the party’s national campaign among the political questions likely to feature in Bayelsa’s preparations for 2027.
The PDP’s allegation has introduced a fresh political dimension to the APC’s preparations in Bayelsa, even as Governor Diri publicly called on party leaders and members to close ranks and mobilise support for all its candidates.
“Every person picked as a member of this campaign council was carefully scrutinised. I want to tell you that our campaign team is loaded. We parade the best candidates among all the parties in Bayelsa State, and there is no doubt about that,” he said.
He urged members to remain focused and united, warning that political opponents could exploit any divisions within the party.
“Our unity is very important because they would want to feast on our disunity. We will not give them that opportunity. Please, as you carry out this assignment, do not take your eyes off the target,” Hon. Ogoriba said.
SP Edafe explained that during the meeting, the organisers were briefed on the identified security threats and advised against embarking on an open-road procession.
Instead, the police reportedly recommended that the political activities be conducted at a designated venue where adequate security arrangements could be provided.
However, the Command alleged that the organisers disregarded the security advice and proceeded with the road procession.
Meanwhile, the Delta State Government has condemned the political violence that erupted in Asaba, the state capital, on Saturday, confirming that one person was killed while four others sustained serious injuries.
The government described the incident as unfortunate and unacceptable, warning political parties and their supporters against actions capable of threatening public peace, security and democratic participation in the state.
In a statement issued by the Commissioner for Works (Rural Roads) and Public Information, Mr Charles Aniagwu, the government reiterated its zero tolerance for political violence, intimidation and other forms of political misconduct.
Mr Aniagwu said the government had repeatedly cautioned political parties against engaging in activities capable of disrupting the peace, insisting that the incident could have been avoided if the organisers had followed security advice.
According to him, the police had advised the organisers to cancel the proposed street march and instead conduct their political campaign at a designated venue where adequate security arrangements could be provided.
He expressed concern that the advice was allegedly disregarded, resulting in a confrontation that claimed one life and left four other people seriously injured.
The government subsequently called on the police to conduct a thorough investigation into the circumstances surrounding the violence and ensure that anyone found culpable is brought to justice.
Mr Aniagwu further warned that the state government would not tolerate politically motivated attacks against any individual, regardless of political affiliation.
He maintained that Delta State remained safe for residents and visitors, stressing that the government would not allow the actions of individuals or groups to undermine the prevailing peace and security in the state.
The government also urged political parties, their leaders and supporters to conduct their political activities within the confines of the law and demonstrate respect for human life, public order and the rights of other citizens.
The latest development follows an attack on supporters of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) during a political procession in Asaba, which reportedly left several participants injured and campaign vehicles vandalised.
The government’s condemnation comes amid growing concerns over political violence and the safety of opposition supporters as political activities intensify ahead of the 2027 general elections.
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