Politics
How Obama’ll Pocket 271 Electoral Votes To Win US Poll
President Barack Obama is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney’s attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio, according to an Associated Press analysis a week before Election Day.
While the Democratic incumbent has the upper hand in the electoral vote hunt, Romney has pulled even, or is slightly ahead, in polling in a few pivotal states, including Florida and Virginia. The Republican challenger also appears to have the advantage in North Carolina, the most conservative of the hotly contested nine states that will determine the winner.
While in a tight race with Obama for the popular vote, Romney continues to have fewer state-by-state paths than Obama to reach 270. Without Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, Romney would need last-minute victories in nearly all the remaining up-for-grabs states and manage to pick off key states now leaning Obama’s way, such as Iowa or Wisconsin.
Analysis shows that Obama probably would win with at least 271 electoral votes from 21 states, including Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa, and the District of Columbia. Romney seems on track for 206 from 23 states, including North Carolina. Obama won that state in 2008 and campaigned aggressively there this year. But Obama’s team acknowledges it is the most difficult state for him to win, and he’s paid less attention to it recently.
Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia, with a combined 61 votes at stake, could go either way.
“I’m counting on Iowa! Iowa may be the place that decides who the next president is!” Romney said on one of two visits to the state last week. In Ohio last week, a hoarse Obama reminded a Cleveland audience near the end of a six-state marathon: “I need you, Ohio. America needs you, Ohio.”
Romney is banking on what his supporters say is late momentum. Obama is betting that his aggressive effort to register and lock in early voters, mainly Democratic-leaning younger and minority voters, will give him an insurmountable advantage heading into Election Day, when more Republicans typically vote than Democrats.
About 35 percent of voters are expected to cast their ballots before November. 6, either in person or by mail. More than 5 million people already have voted. No votes will be counted until November 6, but some states report the party affiliation of people who have voted. Democrats have the edge in Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina, according to state figures and data collected by the United States Elections Project at George Mason University. Republicans have the early edge in Colorado.
Obama, who won in 2008 in places where Democrats had not for a generation, continues to have several routes to electoral victory. His easiest: win Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin, which are leaning his way. He could keep the White House with victories in Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada. If he loses Ohio, he could prevail by sweeping New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Colorado.
Romney has fewer options. He must carry Florida and Virginia, where Republicans are feeling good about his standing, as well as wrest control of Ohio, and then also win Nevada, Colorado or New Hampshire. If he loses Ohio, Romney must make up for the state’s 18 electoral votes by cutting his way through Obama-leaning territory.
At the top of that target list are Wisconsin, carried by Democrats in six straight presidential elections and where Obama has the edge, and Iowa, a perennial swing-voting state.
Ohio is a lynchpin for both candidates.
Obama was in strong standing in the state before the three presidential debates. But Romney’s strong performance in the debates helped him gain ground. But Republicans and Democrats alike now say that any momentum Romney had in Ohio from those debates has run its course, and the state gain is leaning toward Obama. New public polls show a tight race.
Operatives in both parties point to the last debate six days ago, and Obama’s criticism of Romney’s opposition to the automotive industry bailout. They say the criticism was effective in branding Romney as out of touch with working-class voters in a state whose manufacturing economy relies heavily on the car and auto parts industries.
The president started running a new TV ad in the state assailing Romney’s position on the aid. Obama’s internal polling in Ohio has shown a slight increase in support from white, working-class voters, an important part of Ohio’s largely blue-collar electorate.
“That is a killer,’” Tad Devine, a top aide to 2004 and 2000 Democratic nominees, said of the heat Romney is taking for his bailout position. “And it’s going to have the biggest impact in the decisive state in the outcome of the election.”
Out of necessity, Romney is refusing to cede ground in Ohio, where no Republican has lost and then gone on to win the presidency. He hunkered down in the state for two days last week, and running mate Paul Ryan headlined eight events in the state over the weekend. The impending storm that’s set to hit the East Coast led Romney to cancel Virginia campaigning on Sunday and join Ryan in Ohio.
In Ohio alone, Romney and allied groups were spending nearly $9 million on television ads, compared with Obama and his allies’ $6 million, and showed no signs of letting up in the final week.
Elsewhere, Obama is looking to stunt any Romney inroad with suburban women, a pivotal constituency, in Colorado and Virginia, by casting the Republican as an extremist on abortion and hammering him on his opposition to federal money for Planned Parenthood.
In Nevada, Romney is banking on the support of fellow Mormons, and noting the high unemployment and foreclosure rates, to overtake Obama. But the president’s team is appearing ever more confident of winning the state, partly because of the backing of a booming Hispanic population.
Florida, the biggest battleground prize with 29 electoral votes, is viewed by both sides as a tight. Democrats acknowledge that Romney’s standing has improved because of his debate performances and could move out of reach for Obama in the coming days.
Associated Press writer Julie Pace in Washington contributed to this report.
The Tide source reports that Prof. Akinoso was elected alongside 38 other executive members of the party at the congress held on Saturday.
Other executive members are Dr Abiola Olaonipekun, who emerged as Secretary, Alhaja Latifah Latifu, Women Leader and Mr A. Adeleke, elected as Youth Leader.
It was learnt that the congress, which took place at the Obafemi Awolowo Stadium, Oke Ado in Ibadan, was attended by representatives of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the Police, other security agencies and prominent members of the party.
The election was supervised by electoral committee members, among whom were Prince Diran Odeyemi, who served as Chairman, Hon. Awoniyi Tolulope, Mr Babatunde Gbadamosi, Queen Stepheine Oyechere, Alhaji Yusuf Abidakun, Mr Olumide Aguda and Dr Phillips Adeniyi, who served as Secretary.
Prof. Akinoso, in his inaugural address, urged members of the party to set aside intra-party differences.
He advised them to concentrate their resources on the promotion of the party, saying, “The primary responsibilities of party executive members are to coordinate party activities, ensure harmony among members, and ensure party victory during general elections.
“Our immediate assignments are to key into INEC released 2027 general election time-tables. As directed by the National Caretaker Committee of PDP, our party e-membership registration starts next week. We must be fully involved and do a membership drive.
“A political party is only relevant and benefits its members if it wins the election. This is our goal. We should set aside intra-party differences; concentrate our resources towards the promotion of the party. We will make necessary consultations and dialogue to actualise this”.
President Tinubu disclosed this during an interfaith breaking of fast with senior journalists and media executives at the Presidential Villa in Abuja on Saturday.
He also disclosed that his administration had opened up on the principles of true federalism to the extent that local governments now get direct allocation from the Federal Government.
“There’s no morning that I ever leave my house without going through the newspapers. It’s an addiction. I read all of you.
“It might not be in full detail, but headline, the one that would hit me and the ones that won’t.
“At the beginning of this administration, I was just a little bit stubborn, looking at opportunities to correct things and make life more easier for the downtrodden.
“We’ve opened up the principle of federalism to the extent that local governments are now getting their money, but how they use it is in your hands. So, don’t bombard me alone,” President Tinubu said.
The ruling party said the ADC had turned criticism of the APC-led administration into its operating manifesto instead of presenting concrete solutions to Nigeria’s economic challenges.
In a statement issued on Saturday by the APC National Publicity Secretary, Mr Felix Morka, the party dismissed the ADC’s interpretation of a report presented at a policy dialogue organised by Agora Policy which suggested that the country’s poverty rate had risen from 49 per cent to 63 per cent.
Mr Morka said the opposition party’s reaction to the report as a “damning verdict” on the government’s economic policies reflected either ignorance of economic realities or deliberate political mischief.
“The African Democratic Congress’ attempt to spin a recent report presented at the Agora Policy dialogue indicating a rise of poverty rate of 63 per cent from 49 per cent as a damning verdict on this administration’s economic policies speaks either to its shocking ignorance of economic policy or its wilful blindness to the justification for, and transformative impacts of, ongoing economic reforms,” he said.
The APC spokesman noted that the report itself recognised the necessity of reforms aimed at correcting long-standing structural distortions in the economy.
According to him, the ADC had failed to present any credible alternative policy direction for Nigerians.
“Clearly, the ADC does not recognise itself as a political party. The ADC has not articulated a single alternative policy position or prescription of benefit to Nigerians. Condemning the APC and its policies has become its operating manifesto,” Mr Morka said.
He explained that major economic decisions taken by President Bola Tinubu, including the removal of fuel subsidy and the unification of multiple foreign exchange windows, were necessary steps to rescue the country’s economy from collapse.
Mr Morka said the subsidy regime had for years placed a heavy burden on public finances, consuming trillions of naira annually while encouraging corruption, fuel smuggling and inefficiencies in the system.
He added that the reforms had helped redirect national resources to key sectors such as infrastructure, healthcare, education and social development.
The APC spokesman acknowledged that economic reforms often come with short-term hardship but stressed that the measures were essential to build a stronger and more resilient economy.
“Economic reform is never cost-free anywhere in the world. The transient hardship experienced by Nigerians was an inevitable cost of reforms meant to build and guarantee a better future for all Nigerians,” he said.
Mr Morka maintained that the country’s economic outlook was already improving, citing recent growth figures and stronger external reserves.
“Our economy has rebounded and is expanding steadily. The country’s Gross Domestic Product grew by 4.4 per cent last year and is projected to expand by 5.5 per cent this fiscal year, with foreign reserves now exceeding $50 billion,” he stated.
He also pointed to government initiatives designed to cushion the effects of economic adjustments on citizens, including cash transfer programmes, student loan schemes and the rollout of compressed natural gas (CNG) initiatives to reduce transportation costs.
Mr Morka reaffirmed that the APC-led administration would remain focused on rebuilding the economy and expanding social investments to support vulnerable Nigerians.