Oil & Energy

Tight Now, Loose Later: Oil Futures Flash Warning

Published

1 year ago

May 12, 2025

Last week, OPEC+ announced it will once again accelerate the pace of unwinding of production cuts, with output targets for June increasing by 411,000 barrels per day, equivalent to three monthly increments.
This follows a similar move in April, with the organization appearing willing to stay the course amid low oil prices and fears of weakening demand.
We reported that global crude inventories remain low enough, thus giving OPEC+ a window to scale back its voluntary cuts until the market surplus finally arrives.
Saudi Arabia appears intent on “punishing” OPEC+ rascals such as Kazakhstan and Iran for repeatedly violating their quotas.
Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have reported that the latest OPEC survey of secondary sources reveals that Kazakhstan’s crude oil output clocked in at 1.852 mb/d in March, 384 kb/d above its OPEC+ quota.
Further, the country also failed to keep its promise to cut 38 kb/d in compensation for overproduction in March, bringing its total overproduction to 422 kb/d.
The same scenario is expected to unfold in the coming months. Kazakhstan produced 240 kb/d more y/y in March, a sharp contrast from the other eight OPEC+ members who produced a combined 612 kb/d less.
And now, the oil futures markets are sending a dire warning that oil bulls could find themselves in trouble quite soon due to a combination of the OPEC+ output hike and Trump’s tariffs.
Oil futures curve has formed a rare “smile” shape, a structure Morgan Stanley says was last seen briefly in February 2020 just before the infamous oil price crash.
On Wednesday, Brent futures’ July contract was trading at a premium of 74 cents to the October contract, a market structure known as backwardation, foreshadowing immediate tight supply.
However, prompt prices from November have formed a contango, with forward prices flipping to a discount, indicating oversupply as traders predict Trump’s tariffs will eventually weaken oil demand. Having backwardation and contango together leads to the rare “smile” shaped curve.
According to the latest available data by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil inventories stood at 7.647 billion barrels in February, down from 7.709 billion barrels for last year’s corresponding period and close to the bottom of their historical five-year range.
Meanwhile, refiners’ appetite for crude is climbing ahead of the peak driving season in July and August, “Refinery maintenance in the Atlantic basin will start to taper off, increasing oil demand (for refining)… Summer driving should provide some support,” BNP Paribas analyst told Reuters.
Global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day in the third quarter of the current year, up from an average of 104.51 million bpd in the second quarter, the IEA has predicted.
The 1 million bpd output increases announced by OPEC+ so far, coupled with another 400 kb/d increase in July, almost matches the predicted demand increase, implying oil markets will not face a surplus till late in the year.
Meanwhile, oil prices jumped in Thursday’s session after the Trump administration announced it has struck a trade deal with the UK. Brent crude for July delivery was up 2.7% to trade at $62.75/bbl at 12.50 pm ET while WTI crude contract for June delivery added 3.0% to change hands at $59.86 per barrel. However, terms of the deal appear to fall well short of the “comprehensive” package Trump earlier touted.
According to Trump, UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, will further reduce non-tariff barriers and fast-track U.S. goods into his country.
Meanwhile, another solid week of jobless claims underscored the Federal Reserve’s ongoing unwillingness to cut rates. U.S. jobless claims fell 13,000 to 228,000 for the period ending on May 3.
Continued claims, however, clocked in at just over 1.9 million, near the highest levels since 2021, suggesting workers are still finding it difficult to secure new jobs as the economy stalls.
That said, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have predicted that path of least resistance for oil prices is lower in the coming months, with oil prices to remain low before beginning a gradual recovery later in the year as U.S. oil output declines.
StanChart, however, says there’s some technical support in the short-term, with fundamentals remaining fairly positive. Recently, StanChart cut its 2025 oil price forecast to $61/bbl from $76 and also lowered its 2026 forecast to USD 78/bbl from $85 citing Trump’s tariffs.

By: Alex Kimani

Oil & Energy

Renewable Energy Investment Forum Begins Nov. 25

Published

16 hours ago

November 2, 2026

The Tide

Nigeria’s growing solar market will take centre stage as the Renewable Energy Forum Africa (REFA) 2026 holds in Lagos on November 25-26 with the backing of the Rural Electrification Agency (REA).

Organised by the Africa Solar Industry Association (AFSIA) and supported by SolarPower Europe, the forum would bring together investors, developers, regulators, utilities and policymakers at the Radisson Blu Anchorage Hotel, Victoria Island.

The agency said the forum would strengthen partnerships, attract investment and support Nigeria’s clean energy and local manufacturing ambitions.

REA Managing Director, Abba Abubakar Aliyu, is billed to deliver the keynote address at the opening plenary.

The forum would also examine local manufacturing following the launch of Nigeria’s first privately owned 100MW solar module assembly plant in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos.

The event would also feature B2B meetings, an exhibition and the AFSIA Awards on November 25.

It would be noted that Nigeria is West Africa’s leading solar market, with about 618MWp operational capacity, ranking first in the region and eighth in Africa, according to AFSIA.

The country also leads the continent in mini-grid capacity with 132MWp, while its commercial and industrial (C&I) solar capacity stands at 385MWp.

The market is receiving fresh support through the $750m World Bank-backed Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up (DARES) programme, targeting 1,350 mini-grids and electricity access for 17.5 million Nigerians.

Oil & Energy

CBN Appoints Eight New Pre-shipment Agents For Crude Oil And Gas Exports

Published

17 hours ago

November 2, 2026

The Tide

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has appointed eight pre-shipment inspection agents to monitor crude oil and gas exports, alongside two monitoring and evaluation agents to oversee their activities.

The appointments, announced in a notice signed by Aderinola Shonekan, Director of the CBN’s Trade and Exchange Department, took effect on October 2, 2026, under the Nigerian Export Supervision Scheme.

The notice directs authorised dealer banks, the Nigeria Customs Service, petroleum regulators, terminal operators and oil and gas companies to comply with the revised arrangements.

The CBN assigned the eight inspection agents to specific crude oil and gas export terminals as part of the revised framework.

The allocations are as follows:

Dakee Engineering and Construction Ltd.: LNG, Escravos (Gas), Bonny River Terminal (BRT) and EGTL.

Trexem Energy Services Limited: Egina, Qua-Iboe and Tulja. Geoscape Limited: Escravos, ERHA, Odudu and FSO Cawthorne.

617 Limited: Bonga, Brass, Usan and Eagle.Robinson International Energy Ltd.: Ugo-Cha, Penington, Aje, Ima, Oyo and Nembe. Trobell International Nigeria Limited: Forcados, Bonny and Okwori.

Integrated Shipping Services Nigeria Ltd.: Akpo, Antan, Okoro, Anyala-Madu and Ebok.

Kephren Business Ltd.: Ukpokiti, Utapate, Yoho, Abo, Agbami, Ajapa, Okono, Okwok and additional marginal streams designated by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

The CBN also appointed two monitoring and evaluation agents, the Q&Q Control Services Limited and the Arlington Securitas Nigeria Limited to oversee the inspection companies.

The Q&Q Control Services Ltd. would monitor 617 Limited, Trexem Energy Services Limited, Geoscape Limited and Kephren Business Ltd while the Arlington Securitas Nigeria Limited would monitor Dakee Engineering and Construction Ltd., Trobell International Nigeria Limited, Robinson International Energy Ltd. and Integrated Shipping Services Nigeria Ltd.

The latest appointments follow previous changes to the CBN’s monitoring arrangements for crude oil and gas exports.

The latest changes update the companies responsible for inspecting export cargoes and the terminals assigned to them. The notice requires the relevant institutions and operators to comply with the new allocations from October 2, 2026.

The appointments also come amid growth in Nigeria’s gas export earnings.

According to the CBN, Nigeria’s gas export earnings rose to $2.53 billion in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting stronger earnings from the country’s natural gas sector and contributing to its external trade position.

The revised inspection arrangements place designated agents in charge of specified export terminals, while the monitoring and evaluation companies oversee the inspection agents’ activities under the scheme.

Recall that in May 2024, the apex bank appointed 11 pre-shipment inspection and monitoring agents under the export supervision scheme.

The government subsequently reviewed the allocation of oil export terminals in March 2025, assigning additional terminals to nine inspection agents appointed under the scheme.

In July 2026, the CBN also appointed Candid Oil Services Limited as the pre-shipment inspection agent for the Taurus Oil and Gas Depot.

Oil & Energy

What’s Next for Global Natural Gas Demand?

Published

18 hours ago

November 2, 2026

The Tide

The Iran war and the lack of LNG supply from the Middle East have upended forecasts of near-term natural gas demand and import costs.

So far this year, economies in Europe and Asia have relied more on renewables and coal for power generation to offset reduced gas supplies procured at very high prices.

This year’s crisis has prompted governments to rethink energy policies with energy security the top priority, again, after the 2022-2023 energy crisis.

After the decline in global gas demand this year, due to prices at four-year highs, the obvious question for gas market participants is where demand is going after the current crisis ends. Has the second gas crisis in four years permanently undermined expectations of long-term gas demand growth?

Gas cannot be replaced in many industrial processes, yet. Electricity-generating systems in major economies that have relied on gas for power cannot have a reliable electricity supply without gas.

Still, this year and over the past four years, key gas markets in Europe and Asia have seen the share of gas in their electricity mix decline.

The UK, the Netherlands, and Turkey, and major Asian economies China, Japan, and South Korea, have all seen the share of gas-fired electricity drop, according to data from think tank Ember cited by Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire.

The spike in natural gas prices has accelerated Europe’s renewables rollout, which took off in earnest earlier this decade when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and cut off pipeline gas supply to most of Europe. The share of renewables has surged in the EU and the UK in recent years, gradually sidelining gas as the reliable backup fuel rather than the one meeting growing electricity demand.

Globally, “Gas is losing its share in the global power mix as renewables increasingly meet rising electricity demand,” Ember said in a report earlier this year. The analysis found that the share of gas in the global power mix declined for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, despite a small rise in absolute gas generation. Strong growth in clean power, led by solar and wind, met around 68% of global electricity demand growth over the five years to 2025, reducing the need for a significant rise in gas power generation

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According to Ember, 61 out of 124 economies generating electricity from gas had passed their gas generation peak.

However, these countries accounted for around one-fifth of global gas-fired electricity generation in 2025. So the large gas-generating economies, albeit a smaller group, haven’t seen their peak in gas power generation.

The biggest emerging economies, China, India, and Brazil, have actually met their surging electricity demand without turning to gas, Ember noted.

China’s gas share remained close to 3% of the electricity mix in 2025 despite rapid demand growth, while gas power generation in India and Brazil plays a more limited balancing role, the think tank said.

“The economics and energy security case for electricity are increasingly moving in the same direction,” said Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, ?Senior Electricity Analyst at Ember.

“As renewables lower costs and reduce exposure to fuel price shocks and geopolitical disruptions, gas is steadily losing the advantages that once made it the default fuel for power system growth.”

The writing may have been on the wall for natural gas producers and exporters if natural gas was only used in power generation.

But natural gas key uses include as feedstock in industrial manufacturing, including cement and steel, as a chemical feedstock for fertilizer, or as the start of the supply chain of manufacturing plastics, paints, synthetic fabrics, and medicine, to name a few.

And then comes the biggest twist in energy and electricity demand forecasts in recent years—the AI boom. Data centers will drive a large part of the rise in global electricity demand, which has returned to growth even in the U.S. and Europe after a decade or so of flatlining. Renewable energy alone will not meet the surge in power demand, and gas will play a key role in America and in most of Asia, where many countries are positioning to become AI and data center hubs.

The biggest LNG producers, exporters, and traders see long-term gas demand growth intact despite this year’s supply shock that is reducing consumption amid spiking prices.

For example, Shell, the world’s biggest LNG trader, said in its annual LNG Outlook 2026 this summer that surging gas demand in South and Southeast Asia would push global LNG demand up by 65% by 2050 from 2025 levels, although growth this year has been stalled by the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Shell sees global LNG demand increasing to nearly 700 million tons annually by 2050, up by around 65% from the 2025 levels of 422 million tons.

“The conflict created a system-wide shock with disruption cascading across all segments of the economy, but the LNG industry has proved resilient and able to adapt to changing market conditions,” Cederic Cremers, President of Integrated Gas at Shell, commented in the outlook.

“While more investment in both supply and demand infrastructure is needed, the long-term outlook remains strong and LNG will continue to be a stabilising force in the global energy system.”

The International Gas Union (IGU) said in its 2026 World LNG Report in July that “while LNG industry is not immune from the challenges of operating in an era of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, its unique ability to re-distribute large quantities of clean-burning energy from a broadening supply base only enhance LNG’s role as a ‘shock absorber’ to the global economy.”

By; Tsvetana Paraskova