Oil & Energy
What’s Really Happening With Gasoline Demand?
As President (Joe) Biden is reminding everyone who will listen, gasoline prices in the United States have been falling for 50 days straight.
A debate has been raging over exactly how much demand for gasoline has fallen, but it certainly appears to have been one of the weakest driving seasons ever.
Now, as prices fall, the question all analysts are asking themselves is whether demand will bounce back, sending gasoline prices soaring again.
President Biden recently boasted on Twitter that gasoline prices in the United States have been falling for 50 days straight, noting this was the fastest decline in a decade.
The President added a sort of infographic to his tweet informing us that 50 percent of gas stations sold gasoline for $3.99 or less a gallon. What he forgot to mention was that demand for gasoline has been behaving very unnaturally for this time of year.
Standard Chartered this week released a commodity alert that said that this year, driving season in the U.S. never really materialised. The report noted substantial demand declines for both June and July, adding, however, that the recent price decline should result in a pick-up in demand this month.
There has been a lot of talk about the cure for higher oil prices being higher prices still. It appears this might have happened in the U.S. as prices for gasoline earlier this year hit the highest level in several decades. And the national average is still above $4 per gallon, maccording to AAA.
No wonder then, with inflation raging on, people are opting not to drive, which is affecting demand.
According to StanChart data, in July, gasoline demand in the U.S. dropped by 7.6 percent on the year to 8.592million barrels daily, which, the report noted, was the lowest demand level since 1997 except for the lockdown-heavy 2020.
The Energy Information Administration, however, had a different data interpretation. According to that interpretation, the above gasoline demand figure was as much as 1million bpd lower than demand during the lockdown-stricken July of 2020.
Bloomberg’s observation about gasoline demand trends made a splash on Twitter, prompting a lot of analysts to weigh in on the discussion of whether it is possible that this year’s driving season could have been worse for gasoline demand than the lockdown summer of 2020.
Different datasets were noted in the debates, such as GasBuddy’s, which reported a slight increase in demand last week, for example. GasBuddy’s Patrick DeHaan noted the different methodologies of measuring demand and one very, perhaps the most, important difference in these methodologies.
The EIA uses what it calls implied demand or, per its report, “product supplied” by refiners to fuel retailers, while GasBuddy works with the amount of gasoline actually sold by fuel stations.
Some accused the EIA of skewing the numbers. Others noted that the weekly numbers for demand are flawed and that errors have been made in the past, too, leading to the wrong estimate for July demand.
While the debates continue, one thing nobody is arguing about is that U.S. drivers are driving less, and even the 50-day straight price decline has not been enough to motivate them to start driving more, that during the season when everyone travels more, normally.
The StanCart analysts noted in their report that “The average US price of retail gasoline has fallen by more than USc 80 per gallon (16%) since the mid-June peak, which should support demand in August.
“However, we think the theory that the US market will bear gasoline prices of USD 5 per gallon for an extended period has now been tested to its destruction.”
Indeed, whether or not demand for gasoline was lower this July than in July 2020 is not as relevant as the answer to the question of why, despite such a stable and continued decline in prices, Americans are not driving more.
The most obvious answer would be, of course, inflation. Economists, government officials, and journalists are debating the definition of recession, whether or not the presence of a recession on the United States’ books isrelevant to anything, and whether the current situation is not a masked form of economic growth.
In the meantime, the actual prices of actual goods and services are rising. As prices rise, consumption begins to dip. The longer prices rise, the more consumption would dip unless income is adjusted accordingly, which doesn’t seem to be happening yet.
Gasoline, as a fundamental commodity that pretty much everyone uses in one form or another, is no exception. May and especially June saw all-time highs in gasoline prices.
It was a matter of time before these record-high prices began to hurt demand, leading to lower consumption and, consequently, lower prices.
It is, therefore, questionable how much credit for the 50-day price decline in gasoline the Biden administration could reasonably claim. They did not exactly open more refineries or stimulate more oil drilling – and even if they had, it would have taken time to get that new production to the market.
It was largely marketforces that led to the lower prices. And also to lower consumption that may or may not have been even lower than consumption during the lockdown summer of 2020. Now, with prices lower, demand will very likely start picking up, as suggested by GasBuddy’s real-life data.
The more important question then would be how long it will be until prices start climbing up again amid extra-strong exports of both gasoline and diesel.
Slav reports for Oilprice.com
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Delta Targets 120MW Power Boost, Moves To Cut Reliance On National Grid
The State Commissioner for Works (Rural Roads) and Public Information, Charles Aniagwu, disclosed this at a press conference in Asaba, weekend, noting that the initiative was part of wider reforms aimed at opening up the power sector to private investors.
Aniagwu, who was accompanied by the Executive Assistant to the Governor on New Media, Felix Ofou, said the state was exploring alternative sources of electricity to support businesses, households and communities while reducing pressure on the national grid.
He said the government was particularly interested in exploiting Delta’s abundant natural gas resources for power generation, pointing to the Kwale Free Trade Zone, which is part of the state’s special economic zone, as a major opportunity for investors.
According to him, prospective investors were taken to the zone during the state’s recent economic summit to enable them to assess the availability of gas as a key raw material for electricity generation. ComparePower Rates
The commissioner explained that generating more electricity locally would not only increase supply in Delta but also free up power on the national grid for use by other consumers.
Aniagwu cited the 8.5MW Independent Power Plant located behind the state secretariat in Asaba as an example of what could be achieved through alternative power sources.
He said the facility had enabled the secretariat complex to operate independently of the national grid, thereby making the electricity that would otherwise have been consumed there available to other users.
He added that the planned 120MW partnership with Supply Power would further strengthen the state’s electricity supply capacity and provide a more reliable power base for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Aniagwu said the state government was also intervening in areas traditionally regarded as the responsibility of electricity distribution companies because inadequate power supply could no longer be allowed to constrain economic development. LearnQuantum Physics
He identified the extension of the electricity grid from Abraka towards the Ndokwa axis as one of the interventions being undertaken to connect more communities to electricity.
The commissioner, however, raised concerns over the burden placed on communities that are often required to provide transformers and other electricity infrastructure, only for distribution companies to take over the facilities and subsequently collect electricity bills without adequately accounting for the investments made by the communities.
He said the state would continue to support efforts aimed at energising communities, noting that improved electricity supply would stimulate businesses, create jobs and help tackle social problems associated with unemployment and idleness.
On regulation, Aniagwu said the government was working with the Ministry of Energy and a committee set up to develop an appropriate regulatory framework for the state’s emerging power sector. SwitchEnergy Plans
He said the proposed energy commission would be responsible for regulating new electricity producers, determining appropriate tariffs and overseeing distribution networks.
The commissioner stressed that liberalising the sector required effective regulation to protect consumers and investors, adding that decisions on power distribution infrastructure, including the use of overhead or underground lines, must take into account the peculiarities and safety requirements of each location.
He warned that power expansion without adequate regulation could expose residents to electrocution and other hazards, stressing the need to protect electricity infrastructure while ensuring consumers were not subjected to unfair pricing.
Aniagwu said the state government’s broader objective was to build an efficient and sustainable electricity market driven by private investment and capable of powering businesses, households and communities across Delta State.
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