Oil & Energy

‘Why Nigerian Oil Prices Are Falling’

Published

5 years ago

May 3, 2021

Although it is a very rare occurrence to see Nigerian grades trade at levels stipulated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) every month, the issuance of its official selling prices generally reflects the market’s current sentiment. Today’s current feeling about Nigerian crudes (and Western African ones generally) is that of weakness. Attesting to the difficulty of placing West African cargoes recently it should be noted that up until mid-April roughly half of May 2021 loaders were still available, normally the overwhelming majority of them would be cleared by that point surely. In this article, we assess 3 main trends that have brought Nigerian crudes to the low point at which they are now, fierce competition from usual rivals and incrementally from US cargoes, the tepid recovery of European markets and the sudden collapse of India.
But let’s first take a look at NNPC’s official selling prices for May 2021. If one is to disregard the April-June 2020 period that saw every possible differential plummet to multi-year lows, the new Nigerian OSPs for May plummeted to their lowest in more than a decade. NNPC dropped its main export streams, Bonny Light, Brass River, Erha, Qua Iboe – by 61-62 cents per barrel from their April 2021 prices, with them amounting to -0.9, -0.8, -0.65, -0.97 USD per barrel against Dated Brent. As low as this might seem, these levels are some 40-50 cents per barrel better than the actual May spot market. It was inevitable that May OSPs decrease given that aggregate exports are inching back (to 1.68mbpd next month), however, the extent of the slump was aggravated by the below factors.
The OPEC+ years have brought about an unprecedented expansion of light sweet crudes available to buyers, refiners across continents can choose from a plethora of options. Most of oil-producing nations are gradually increasing their output, be it a consequence of easing OPEC+ quotas or simply due to their own volition to benefit from the reasonably profitable prices above 60 USD per barrel, meaning that refiners in Asia or Europe can create complex strategies on what to refine in the upcoming period. Now that the market has been backwardated for several months already, the shipping market no longer experiences any dearth of vessels, i.e. freight costs would be manageable for the buyers. Thus Nigeria, located mid-way between Europe and Asia (and having largely lost the US crude market), is compelled to fend off competitors from all sides.
April 2021 will witness a solid inflow of light sweet US grades to Asia, amassing a monthly total of 44MMbbls. That is some 10MMbbls higher month-on-month than in maintenance-heavy March. Concurrently, WTI delivered to Singapore fell to its lowest in a year, flirting the 0 line of Dated Brent in mid-April; WTI DES Rotterdam plunged into negative territory in the first days of April and has remained there ever since. Similarly, in Europe where both Azeri and CPC saw a massive depreciation, the former fell as low as 0.10 USD per barrel vs Dated (generally should garner a premium of 1-2 USD per barrel), whilst the Kazakhstani flagship grade nosedived to -3.25/-3.50 USD per barrel against Dated Brent. Thus, Nigeria’s rivals are pumping crudes onto the markets and accepting anaemic differentials as a necessary albeit painful element of the trading game.
India has routinely been the top buyer of Nigerian grades, the not-too-light and not-too-heavy quality of Nigeria’s flagship crudes suits India’s plentiful refiners almost perfectly. Last year 17% of Nigerian crude exports went to India, equivalent to 300kbpd on an annual average basis. Nigerian oil producers will have an extremely tough time trying to maintain those levels of crude exports. First the ever-widening Brent/Dubai EFS has narrowed down arbitrage potential from Nigeria, which, at a time of increasing export quotas (went from 1.64mbpd in February 2021 to 1.68mbpd in April) was a rather unpleasant development.
India’s current COVID travails foreshadow further difficulty for placing Nigerian cargoes in their prime market outlet. National demand for transportation fuels is bound to drop by at least 20% in April in India as regional governments introduced lockdowns once again, including the capital New Delhi. Although initially destined for several weeks, the lockdowns can be extended for a couple of months as the dangers of the new Covid strain discovered in India, labelled B.1.617, are still difficult to assess. One thing we can ascertain already: throughout December 2020 –March 2021 oil producers from Nigeria loaded an average of 11-12 MMbbls. This April the total volume to be loaded in Nigerian terminals towars India will amount to 8.8 MMbbls and May 2021 is bound to decrease even further.
Spanish refiners have routinely been to the lighter side of the Mediterranean spectrum, therefore it should not come as a surprise that Spain maintained its role as an important buyer of Nigerian crudes (0.23mbpd), trailing only to India. On the back of Europe still struggling to revive its economy at least to pre-COVID levels, Spain has been suffering from depressed demand. Coastal refiners have felt the pinch of the ongoing market slump more than landlocked ones did, unfortunately for Spain all but one of its refineries are located next to the Mediterranean and Atlantic Ocean, thus being subject to the intense regional competition. Most coastal refineries have been running at 60-70% nominal capacity for almost a year. Truth be told, even the only inland refinery in Puertollano has shut down all fuels production in April 2021.
At the same time, during the autumn months of 2020 when the 2nd wave of COVID was battering Spain again, Nigerian exports stayed within the statistical average all the while differentials were stronger than they are now. In March 2021, only one Escravos Suezmax cargo left the loading terminals of Nigeria for Spain; all this after a really robust February when a total of 9.2MMbbls was loaded. This harkens back to the above-mentioned competition with US, Caspian and North African grades, a joust that Nigeria is evidently losing. Weak demand and third-wave lockdowns notwithstanding, neither the American WTI nor the Caspian CPC has seen any ground-breaking changes in total volumes loaded en route to Spain.
Katona writes for Oilprice.com

Oil & Energy

‘Revamping Moribund Refineries ‘ll Address Rising Cost Of Petroleum Products’

Published

1 month ago

September 21, 2026

The Tide

An Energy Expert, Dr Joseph Obele, has called on the Federal Government and the management of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to urgently restart the government – owned refineries insisting that it would help in curbing the rising cost of petroleum products.

He insisted that bringing back the moribund public refineries would further serve as a direct response to the plight of Nigerians as far as petroleum products is concerned.

Obele, who is also the Public Relations Officer (PRO) of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) and Lecturer at the Ignatius Ajuru University of Education, Port Harcourt, while reacting to the cost of petrol said the immediate and practical approach to addressing the current increase in petroleum prices is to restore production at the government-owned refineries and maximise every available refining capacity in the country.

“The immediate approach to the recent rise in petroleum prices is to restart the government-owned refineries”, he said.

Obele insisted that restoring functional government-owned refining capacity would increase domestic supply, reduce dependence on imported refined petroleum products and contribute to greater stability in the downstream petroleum market.

He urged the federal government to maximise all available refining capacity while continuing to encourage responsible private-sector Investment and healthy competition within the downstream petroleum industry.

Obele expressed concern over the continued rise in crude oil prices amid the ongoing tensions involving the United States and Iran and concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, warning that sustained supply risks could continue to put pressure on global petroleum prices.

He noted that Brent crude closed at about $105.83 per barrel on 16 September 2026, while WTI closed at about $102.43 per barrel.

The impact, the expert said, is already being felt in the Nigerian downstream market, with Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) reportedly selling in the range of ?1,400–?1,500 per litre in some locations, while Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) is selling above ?2,000 per litre.

“The immediate approach to the recent rise in petroleum prices is to restart the government-owned refineries”, Obele said.

According to him, restoring functional government-owned refining capacity will increase domestic supply, reduce dependence on imported refined petroleum products and contribute to greater stability in the downstream petroleum market..

He warned that a prolonged increase in petroleum prices would have a wider economic impact, particularly on transportation, food, medical services and other essential commodities.

“The continuous increase in the cost of petroleum products will invariably affect the prices of virtually all commodities and services. It will create additional inflationary pressure and deepen the financial hardship being experienced by Nigerians”, he stated.

Obele noted that the prolonged dormancy of government-owned refineries has had serious economic and employment implications across the petroleum value chain, affecting workers, contractors, marketers, transporters, businesses and other dependants of the sector.

According to him, a functional Port Harcourt and Warri Refinery would stimulate activities across the petroleum value chain, support employment and restore confidence among industry stakeholders.

In his words, ‘the Port Harcourt Refinery should become a measurable demonstration of government’s commitment to the welfare of Nigerians”

He further noted that the Port Harcourt Refinery had previously recorded production activities arguing that the focus should now be on resolving operational challenges and returning the facility to sustainable production.

“The time to restart the Port Harcourt Refinery is now. Nigerians cannot continue to bear the unbearable cost of petroleum products when domestic refining capacity is available. Every viable refinery should be optimally utilised in the national interest”

Obele emphasised that the objective should not be to undermine private-sector refineries but to ensure that all viable refining assets—government and private—contribute to national energy security, adequate supply and a competitive downstream petroleum market.

Lady Godknows Ogbulu

Oil & Energy

The Race To Cut Methane Emissions Is Exposing A Global Divide

Published

1 month ago

September 21, 2026

The Tide

Several countries worldwide have been working to reduce methane leaks, with some states making significantly more progress than others. The establishment of the Global Methane Pledge in 2021 at the COP26 climate summit has helped accelerate cleanup efforts; however, many countries are still falling behind on their methane-cutting pledges. Now, one of the world’s biggest methane polluters – Turkmenistan – is aiming to plug its mega leaks, which would help reduce global methane emissions and could encourage other countries to do the same.

The United States and the European Union led the Global Methane Pledge, which has since been signed by 159 countries that together contribute around 45 per cent of global human-caused methane emissions. The pledge aims to reduce methane emissions by at least 30 per cent below 2020 levels by 2030.

Many governments had already made ambitious pledges to reduce carbon emissions, but some had not previously sought to cut methane emissions, which heat the planet up to 80 times more than carbon dioxide over two decades. Methane has contributed around 30 per cent of the increase in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution, and fossil fuels contribute around one-third of the methane emissions from human activity. Record production of oil, gas, and coal, combined with limited mitigation efforts, has kept emissions above 120 million tonnes (Mt) annually, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The IEA’s annual Global Methane Tracker shows how much methane is emitted each year and tracks progress and failures. In 2024, abandoned wells and mines accounted for roughly 8 Mt of methane emissions, demonstrating the severity of leaving them unplugged. It is extremely hard to track methane emissions as they are widely underreported. Some parts of the world have little or no measurement-based data on methane emissions.

Therefore, the IEA has to rely on data from scientific studies, measurement campaigns, and large emissions events detected by satellites to estimate emissions each year. Some regions of the world, such as Europe, report their methane emissions far more accurately than other parts. The IEA estimated that global energy-related methane emissions are about 80 per cent higher than those reported by countries to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Some countries contribute heavily to the world’s methane emissions, particularly oil-rich countries that have not effectively decommissioned fossil fuel operations for decades, including Turkmenistan, the United States, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. A 2023 Guardian assessment revealed that Turkmenistan was the worst country for methane mega-leaks. Some of Turkmenistan’s “super-emitters” leaked tonnes of methane every hour, from a single valve or pipeline, which is more than the emissions from an entire coal-fired power station. The assessment showed that the methane emissions alone from Turkmenistan’s two main fossil fuel fields contributed more to global heating in 2022 than the United Kingdom’s entire carbon emissions. The findings have led to significant public backlash and put pressure on the government to address the problem.

This year, Turkmenistan approved a massive clean-up project, as the country started plugging its mega-leaks. Turkmenistan has halted eight leaks by repairing corroded pipes, faulty wells, and failing flares, according to data from the United Nations. However, significant work is needed to reduce the country’s methane emissions. The UN Methane Alert and Response System (MARS) has delivered 192 alerts of methane plumes to Turkmenistan over the last year. According to the system, Turkmenistan had nine of the world’s top 50 worst methane leaks of the last six months.

Turkmenistan has improved its reporting systems in recent years and responded to around 20 per cent of the alerts with on-the-ground information about the leaks and potential plans to fix them. By comparison, the United States was sent 138 alerts and did not respond to any. The worst detected methane leak came from Mexico’s offshore oil and gas operations and measured a huge 37 tonnes per hour, equivalent to the emissions of over 7 million SUVs. Although Mexico responded to all 23 MARS alerts, it has yet to fix the leak.

Meghan Demeter, the programme manager of MARS, stated, “These mitigation cases are a proof point of what can be done with satellite data, especially in situations like Turkmenistan, where there are a lot of detections… This is a breakthrough in terms of having real documented mitigation action. But it is not yet a breakthrough in the overall magnitude of emissions. Eight cases is an incredible first step, but there are also a lot more sources in Turkmenistan that need to be addressed. We are in pretty constant communication, and the response rate is growing month by month. We’re seeing steady progress.”

UN tracking has also encouraged other countries in the region to plug leaks, with Kazakhstan, another former Soviet republic with ageing oil and gas infrastructure, stopping eight leaks following alerts. To date, Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina have 100 per cent response rates to MARS alerts, while Libya and Azerbaijan have high response rates. Meanwhile, the United States, Iran, Russia, and China failed to respond to any alerts.

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com 16

Oil & Energy

Delta Targets 120MW Power Boost, Moves To Cut Reliance On National Grid

Published

2 months ago

September 7, 2026

The Tide

The Delta State Government has intensified efforts to boost electricity generation and supply in the state with plans to add 120 megawatts (MW) to the national grid through a partnership with Supply Power.

The State Commissioner for Works (Rural Roads) and Public Information, Charles Aniagwu, disclosed this at a press conference in Asaba, weekend, noting that the initiative was part of wider reforms aimed at opening up the power sector to private investors.

Aniagwu, who was accompanied by the Executive Assistant to the Governor on New Media, Felix Ofou, said the state was exploring alternative sources of electricity to support businesses, households and communities while reducing pressure on the national grid.

He said the government was particularly interested in exploiting Delta’s abundant natural gas resources for power generation, pointing to the Kwale Free Trade Zone, which is part of the state’s special economic zone, as a major opportunity for investors.

According to him, prospective investors were taken to the zone during the state’s recent economic summit to enable them to assess the availability of gas as a key raw material for electricity generation. ComparePower Rates

The commissioner explained that generating more electricity locally would not only increase supply in Delta but also free up power on the national grid for use by other consumers.

Aniagwu cited the 8.5MW Independent Power Plant located behind the state secretariat in Asaba as an example of what could be achieved through alternative power sources.

He said the facility had enabled the secretariat complex to operate independently of the national grid, thereby making the electricity that would otherwise have been consumed there available to other users.

He added that the planned 120MW partnership with Supply Power would further strengthen the state’s electricity supply capacity and provide a more reliable power base for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Aniagwu said the state government was also intervening in areas traditionally regarded as the responsibility of electricity distribution companies because inadequate power supply could no longer be allowed to constrain economic development. LearnQuantum Physics

He identified the extension of the electricity grid from Abraka towards the Ndokwa axis as one of the interventions being undertaken to connect more communities to electricity.

The commissioner, however, raised concerns over the burden placed on communities that are often required to provide transformers and other electricity infrastructure, only for distribution companies to take over the facilities and subsequently collect electricity bills without adequately accounting for the investments made by the communities.

He said the state would continue to support efforts aimed at energising communities, noting that improved electricity supply would stimulate businesses, create jobs and help tackle social problems associated with unemployment and idleness.

On regulation, Aniagwu said the government was working with the Ministry of Energy and a committee set up to develop an appropriate regulatory framework for the state’s emerging power sector. SwitchEnergy Plans

He said the proposed energy commission would be responsible for regulating new electricity producers, determining appropriate tariffs and overseeing distribution networks.

The commissioner stressed that liberalising the sector required effective regulation to protect consumers and investors, adding that decisions on power distribution infrastructure, including the use of overhead or underground lines, must take into account the peculiarities and safety requirements of each location.

He warned that power expansion without adequate regulation could expose residents to electrocution and other hazards, stressing the need to protect electricity infrastructure while ensuring consumers were not subjected to unfair pricing.

Aniagwu said the state government’s broader objective was to build an efficient and sustainable electricity market driven by private investment and capable of powering businesses, households and communities across Delta State.