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Inflation Will Slow Nigeria’s economic Growth To 2.9% – IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that Inflation will slow Nigeria’s economic growth to 2.9 per cent in 2023,
IMF also downgraded the country’s economic growth prospect by 0.3 percentage points to 2.9 per cent for 2023, following weaker oil and gas production.
The IMF disclosed this in its new World Economic Outlook (for October) themed, “Navigating Global Divergences”, released on Tuesday.
Earlier in July, the IMF projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 3.2 per cent in 2023. It later predicted that growth in the country would be impacted by security issues in the oil sector.
Commenting on its new prediction for the country, the Washington-based lender said, “Growth in Nigeria is projected to decline from 3.3 percent in 2022 to 2.9 per cent in 2023 and 3.1 per cent in 2024, with negative effects of high inflation on consumption taking hold.
“The forecast for 2023 is revised downward by 0.3 percentage point, reflecting weaker oil and gas production than expected, partially as a result of maintenance work”.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s GDP grew by 2.51 per cent in the second quarter of 2023. In August, Inflation surged to 25.80 per cent, an 18 year high, according to figures from the NBS.
Growth in the sub-Saharan African region is expected to decline to 3.3 percent in 2023 due to worsening weather shocks, the global slowdown, and domestic supply issues, the IMF noted.
It, however, stated that this growth will pick up by 2024 to 4.0 per cent in 2024, which is still below the region’s historical average of 4.8 per cent.
Overall, global economic growth is projected to slow from 3.5 per cent in 2022 to 3.0 per cent in 2023 and 2.9 per cent in 2024, well below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 per cent, the IMF declared.
It added, “Advanced economies are expected to slow from 2.6 per cent in 2022 to 1.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.4 per cent in 2024 as policy tightening starts to bite.
“Emerging market and developing economies are projected to have a modest decline in growth from 4.1 per cent in 2022 to 4.0 per cent in both 2023 and 2024”.
Inflation, which has been on a global rise, is expected to fall from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 6.9 percent in 2023 and 5.8 percent in 2024, the IMF highlighted. It further stated that low-income developing countries are expected to experience double digits inflation in 2023.
Commenting on a question regarding Nigeria at Marrakech, Morocco, the head of the World Economic Studies division in the IMF’s Research Department, Daniel Leigh, highlighted that the downward review in Nigeria is due to the recent demonetisation move of the government, high inflation, and more.
Leigh, who heads the department that produces the World Economic Outlook, said, “There is a downward revision for this year, partially this is due to the demonetisation, high inflation, shocks to agriculture and hydrocarbon output that is coming on top of the external headwinds.
“I will also add that President Tinubu has moved quickly with important reforms including ending the fuel subsidy and unifying the exchange rates. We welcome these initial bold reforms because we see them as paving the way for strong and inclusive growth”.
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The Federal Government has approved a whooping $1bn credit facility to support Nigerian exporters and small scale businesses to take advantage of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in order to boost production, competitiveness and intra-African trade.
The $1bn AfCFTA Adjustment Fund Credit Facility is also expected to address some of the financing gap being faced by Nigerian exporters and enhance the competitiveness of African businesses within the continental market.
The Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, disclosed this during the second quarter 2026 meeting of the AfCFTA Central Coordination Committee held in Abuja.
According to a statement issued by the ministry’s Head of Press and Public Relations, Obilor-Duru Okechi, Oduwole said the financing facility represented a major opportunity for Nigerian businesses seeking to expand operations, modernise production processes and increase exports to African markets.
The statement partly read, “?The Federal Government has reaffirmed its commitment to accelerating Nigeria’s export-led growth agenda under the African Continental Free Trade Area, unveiling opportunities for businesses to access a US$1 billion AfCFTA Adjustment Fund Credit Facility aimed at boosting production, competitiveness, and intra-African trade.”
She noted that despite the progress Nigeria had made in implementing the continental trade agreement, many local businesses continued to face obstacles that limited their ability to take advantage of the single African market.
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“Many businesses still face challenges relating to export documentation, certification, standards compliance and market access,” the minister said.
She explained that the Federal Government was addressing these bottlenecks through enhanced trade facilitation measures, simplified AfCFTA guidance tools, stakeholder engagement programmes and stronger collaboration with institutions such as the Nigeria Customs Service and the Nigerian Export Promotion Council.
Oduwole stressed the need to strengthen Nigeria’s legal and regulatory framework by domesticating key AfCFTA protocols, particularly the Digital Trade Protocol, to position the country as a major player in Africa’s growing digital economy.
The minister also highlighted some of the gains recorded in Nigeria’s AfCFTA implementation efforts.
According to her, the expansion of Nigeria’s Air Cargo Corridor Initiative to Rwanda, increased collaboration with development partners and private sector players, as well as sustained engagement with state governments, were helping to deepen awareness and participation in the continental market.
In her welcome address and first-quarter update, the National Coordinator and Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria AfCFTA Coordination Office, Mrs Patience Okala, provided details of the financing initiative.
Okala said the $1bn AfCFTA Adjustment Fund Credit Facility was targeted at large African businesses with a minimum financing capacity of $10m.
She revealed that the National AfCFTA Coordination Office was working closely with fund managers to facilitate access for eligible Nigerian companies and had begun assembling a pilot group of businesses to ensure that Nigeria maximised the opportunities provided by the facility.
Nkpemenyie Mcdominic, Lagos
The National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA) has advised Nigerians against boarding boats that require constant bailing of water in the interest of their safety.
NIWA Area Manager for Cross River and Ebonyi, Mr Stanley Onuoha gave this warning in an interview with Newsmen in Calabar.
Onuoha who spoke on waterway
safety, said that passengers should take responsibility for their safety by inspecting boats before embarking on any journey.
According to him, repeated scooping of water from a boat is a clear indication that the vessel may be leaking.
“If you are entering a boat and see people using a bailer to remove water, it is the first signal that the boat is leaking,” he said.
He urged passengers to check the integrity of boats, including seating arrangements and other visible safety features.
The Manager restated the importance of using safety jackets, saying that damaged jackets may fail during emergencies.
He further said that passengers should ensure that safety jackets were appropriate for their body sizes in order to guarantee effective flotation.
Onuoha reiterated the need for passengers to fill manifests before departure to aid accountability during emergencies.
The NIWA official further advised travellers to monitor weather conditions and avoid boarding boats when the weather is unfavourable.
According to him, poor weather conditions can trigger strong tidal waves capable of affecting small boats commonly used on inland waterways.
He said that waterway journeys should be embarked upon between 6.00a.m and 6.00p.m for clearer visibility.
Onuoha said the Authority had continued to sensitise riverine communities to the need for safety precautions during waterway journeys.
He stated that sustained awareness campaigns and enforcement measures had contributed to safety waterway safety in Cross River.
CHINEDU WOSU