Business
US Projects $17bn For Nigeria From Oil Assets Sale
The Federal Government is expected to make up to $17billion if it sells down its stake in most joint-ventures oil and assets, according to JP Morgan.
The United States bank’s projection came against the backdrop of the government’s plan to boost foreign exchange earnings and external reserves in order to ease forex pressure.
The US bank stated this in a report titled, “Nigeria: reform pause rather than fatigue (CBN’s financial accounts open a can of worms)”.
The lender said the Central Bank of Nigeria’s net FX reserves were around $3.7bn as of the end of 2022, down from the $14bn it was at the end of 2021, based on its recently released reports.
It said, “Based on partial information from the audited financial accounts, we estimate that CBN’s net FX reserves were around $3.7bn at the end of last year, from $14.0bn at end-2021. In arriving at the said estimate we make a few assumptions which if incorrect would substantially change the picture.
“They include: (i) an addition of $5bn in IMF Special Drawing Rights to external reserves in order to arrive at total gross FX reserves of $37.8bn, broadly in line with the 30-day moving average of $37.08bn previously published on the central bank’s website; (ii) adjusting the gross external reserves with three key FX liability lines that include FX forwards (US$6.84bn), securities lending ($5.5bn) and currency swaps (US $21.3bn).
“And (iii) estimating currency swaps by backing out FX forwards and outstanding OTC Futures balances from an overall aggregate published i n the financial accounts”.
According to JP Morgan, the low net forex reserves mean a continued forex market pressure, adding that the CBN can still source forex at commercial and semi-commercial rates.
The highly profitable nature of the currency swap arrangements between the CBN and domestic commercial banks is expected to continue for some time, it said.
On the government assets which can provide succor in the medium term, it stated, “For example, the President’s policy advisory council has recommended the government sell down its stake in the most joint-venture oil and gas assets, a proposal that is estimated to bring in up to $17bn”.
The US bank further said the recently announced $3bn loan to the NNPC could help partly improve FX liquidity conditions in the market, with the oil company selling the dollars to the CBN and remitting the naira proceeds to the government as upfront payments for oil revenues and taxes.
The large external financing needs of the private sector will, however, sustain forex pressures, the bank warned.
Structural balance of payments deficit and a worse starting point for net FX reserves than previously anticipated are affecting the government’ ability to transition to a significantly more flexible exchange rate regime, according to the US bank.
This process of rebuilding reserve buffers is likely to be protracted as significant reforms are needed to attract foreign direct (and portfolio) investment on a multi-year basis, it said.
It added, “Perhaps short-term fixes could involve a swift improvement in oil output and significantly tighter monetary policy – authorities will have to increase the frequency of OMO auctions, which resumed last week”.
While commenting on Nigeria’s inflation rate, the bank projected that inflation rate will spike to 28 per cent by the end of 2023, and the naira will further depreciate despite the CBN’s efforts to stabilise the foreign exchange market.
The projection by JPMorgan is three percentage points higher than the 25 per cent inflation projection by the World Bank for 2023 because of petrol subsidy removal.
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Blue Economy: Minister Seeks Lifeline In Blue Bond Amid Budget Squeeze

Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy is seeking new funding to implement its ambitious 10-year policy, with officials acknowledging that public funding is insufficient for the scale of transformation envisioned.
Adegboyega Oyetola, said finance is the “lever that will attract long-term and progressive capital critical” and determine whether the ministry’s goals take off.
“Resources we currently receive from the national budget are grossly inadequate compared to the enormous responsibility before the ministry and sector,” he warned.
He described public funding not as charity but as “seed capital” that would unlock private investment adding that without it, Nigeria risks falling behind its neighbours while billions of naira continue to leak abroad through freight payments on foreign vessels.
He said “We have N24.6 trillion in pension assets, with 5 percent set aside for sustainability, including blue and green bonds,” he told stakeholders. “Each time green bonds have been issued, they have been oversubscribed. The money is there. The question is, how do you then get this money?”
The NGX reckons that once incorporated into the national budget, the Debt Management Office could issue the bonds, attracting both domestic pension funds and international investors.
Yet even as officials push for creative financing, Oloruntola stressed that the first step remains legislative.
“Even the most innovative financial tools and private investments require a solid public funding base to thrive.
It would be noted that with government funding inadequate, the ministry and capital market operators see bonds as alternative financing.
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