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Fast Tracking NiMET’s  Prediction 2023

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At the amusement park the other day, a scene was created by a man who claimed that his wife had delivered a baby the previous day and he had no money to provide the basic things needed in the hospital. He came to the park and was approaching the fun seekers, soliciting for financial aid. A particular woman who did not like the “disturbance” reported him to the security men who immediately rushed to whisk him away. Expectedly, the needy man put up some resistance and that led to the fracas that attracted many people.Some people were asking why a man whose wife was pregnant for nine months never made plans to at least buy the basic things that will be needed upon the arrival of the baby.  “How can you impregnate your wife and for nine months you could not buy even an ordinary diaper or powder. You waited until your wife delivered before you started running helter skelter looking for who to assist you? You no get shame?”, one man asked.
But is that man’s attitude not the same with that of many other Nigerians? As individuals, groups and institutions, we hardly seek solutions to our problems until it is too late. Someone’s vehicle will develop fault but he will not attend to it until it breaks down completely. A building will have a crack but the occupants and the owner will overlook it until the building collapses, killing some people. The example is endless and it occurs both on a small and large scale. Just look at the issue of flooding in Nigeria. Flooding has become a perennial problem in Nigeria. Although the degree and seriousness of the natural disaster fluctuates, flooding remains a recurring phenomenon in most parts of the country. In 2012, the country was hit by devastating floods which affected 32 states, killing more than 360 people and displacing almost two million others. The seriousness of the flooding was attributed to a combination of two events: very heavy local rainfall and the release of excess water from the Lagdo Dam in Cameroon.
Ten years later, the release of water from the same Lagdo Dam was largely blamed for the worst floods ever experienced in the country.  The Minister of Aviation, Hadi Sirika, recently disclosed that devastating floods witnessed in many parts of the country in 2022 led to the death of over 600 people and displacement of over 2.4 million. It also affected investments in agriculture, transport infrastructure, houses, power lines worth millions of dollars.It was a very difficult time for many Nigerians whose homes and property were submerged. Roads were damaged.  Some high ways in Lokoja, Kogi State axis were taken over by flood. We recall the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) blaming Lokoja highway flood for the acute fuel scarcity in Abuja and its environ at that time. The rains are almost here, what measures have been put in place to prevent a repeat of the ugly experiences of the previous years?
A few weeks ago, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), unveiled its 2023 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), which predicted an early rainfall Onset date in some states. Although the NiMet forecast has predicted a largely normal rainfall pattern, it also indicated a high possibility of flash floods in some states. NiMet Director-General, Prof. Mansur Matazu, said there was likely to be elevated dry spell in some states of the north with potential adverse impact on planted crops.  In the aspect of health, the SCP disclosed that high vigilance for malaria is anticipated in the coastal zone of the country as early as January 2023 and spreads northwards as the year progresses, covering up to parts of Taraba, Benue, Kogi, Kwara and Nasarawa states in north central zone of the country.
Also, high vigilance for meningitis was anticipated over the extreme northeast of the country, covering most of Borno, Yobe and parts of Jigawa states, as early as January 2023, and as the year progressed, the area under high vigilance threshold extended southwards and reached the maximum extent in March 2023. “With the early onset and ample amount of rains expected and the experiences of the year 2022, it would be good to know that the water table has not gone too low and the aquifers are still very much active across the country and as such there could be chances of flash floods over many places, largely due to poor sanitation practices. These floods could lead to the outbreak of diseases, fatalities and the destruction of property”, Matazu said.The big question is, what are we as individuals and a country doing with this prediction?
Are measures underway to prevent the preventable ones and mitigate the effect or are we, like the man at the amusement park, whose wife was delivered of a baby, just folding our hands waiting until the disaster happens before we start running up and down, providing palliative materials and all what not? Reports have it that an agreement was reached between Nigeria and Cameroon for Nigeria to build a counterpart dam that would take in water from Lagdo whenever Cameroonian authorities open that dam.  That gave rise to the commencement of the construction of the Dasin Hausa Dam in Adamawa State which is said to be two times the size of Lagdo Dam. The Dasin Hausa Dam which is meant to serve as a form of shock absorber to flood in Nigeria is yet to be completed since 1982.  What has been done in this regard since last year?
At the peak of last year’s flood, the Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management, Sadiya Farouq, told newsmen in Abuja that the excess water released by Cameroonian authorities from the country’s Lagdo Dam compounded the flooding in Nigeria and that her ministry would initiate bilateral talks with the Cameroonians in November on the periodic opening of Lagdo dam. Has this been done? What is the outcome? Similarly, President Mohammadu Buhari, within the same period, ordered the Minister of Water Resources to give him a prevention plan on flood in 90 days. It has been more than 90 days since then, has the minister complied with the order? Is the plan being implemented? As the NiMET boss stated, the essence of the weather predictions is for the government at all levels, farmers and even individuals to be guided in their planning process so as to reduce the risk of disaster. The predictions are supposed to guide the appropriate authorities to either avert the problem or mitigate the impact.
Apparently, flooding is not peculiar to Nigeria. It is a global problem which experts say is majorly caused by climate change, which has been shown to contribute to more extreme storms and rainfall. Some have also attributed the problem to rapid urban growth, poor planning and uncontrolled development, indiscriminate disposal of waste, poor drainage system and lots more. but the difference is that while many countries prioritise these environmental challenges and seek timely and lasting solutions to them, ours are more concerned about politics and their selfish gains and pay little or no attention to environmental issues. It is therefore high time, both federal, state governments and the appropriate ministries, parastatals and regulatory agencies sat up and took their responsibilities seriously towards the betterment of our environment. They should ensure strict adherence to the development plans, dredge the major rivers in the country, and implement other good and realistic suggestions of environmental experts.
However, the desired result cannot be achieved without the collaborative effort of the citizens who must desist from dumping refuse indiscriminately, particularly in water channels and erecting structures on water ways. As the rains are almost here, let us clean our drainages to make for easy passages of water. Let us help the government to help us.

By: Calista Ezeaku

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Poor Federal Roads: The Oshiomhole’s  Outburst

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Quote:”Although the Federal Ministry of Works is responsible for road construction and rehabilitation while the Federal Roads Maintenance Agency (FERMA) oversees maintenance, road maintenance has consistently taken a back seat”

The recent outburst by the lawmaker representing Edo North Senatorial District, Senator Adams Oshiomhole, over the deplorable condition of federal roads in Edo and Delta states has once again drawn national attention to one of Nigeria’s most persistent infrastructure challenges. During Senate plenary last Wednesday, Oshiomhole criticized the Minister of Works, David Umahi, accusing the Federal Ministry of Works of neglecting major federal highways in Edo and Delta while prioritizing new road projects. According to him, the government should focus on rehabilitating existing roads that have become impassable before embarking on new construction. He identified the Benin-Warri, Benin-Asaba, Benin-Auchi and Auchi-Okene highways as strategic economic corridors that have deteriorated to alarming levels, making travel difficult for commuters and motorists while increasing the cost of transporting goods and services.

The senator also alleged that road projects affecting Edo and Delta states were repeatedly omitted from budgetary provisions and that some interventions were only undertaken following directives from President Bola Tinubu. Ironically, the Federal Government has consistently reiterated its commitment to reconstructing and rehabilitating federal roads across the country. The Minister of Works has repeatedly assured Nigerians that the government is deploying reinforced concrete technology to build more durable highways capable of withstanding the country’s climatic conditions. Despite these assurances, vast sections of federal road across the country remain in deplorable condition. The consequences are enormous. Federal highways serve as the backbone of the nation’s economy, carrying more than 90 per cent of passengers and freight.

They connect ports, airports, industrial centres, state capitals and agricultural belts, facilitating the movement of food, fuel, cement and manufactured goods. When these roads fail, the entire economy suffers. Although the Federal Ministry of Works is responsible for road construction and rehabilitation while the Federal Roads Maintenance Agency (FERMA) oversees maintenance, road maintenance has consistently taken a back seat. The result is a recurring cycle in which newly completed roads quickly deteriorate while existing ones are left to collapse. The economic consequences are severe. Bad roads increase transportation costs, contribute to food inflation, delay the movement of goods from ports to markets, increase vehicle maintenance expenses and lead to avoidable road crashes that claim countless lives every year.

To address these challenges, the Federal Government has introduced initiatives such as the Highway Development and Management Initiative (HDMI), which seeks to attract private investment into road maintenance through concessions and tolling. While the initiative holds promise, public acceptance will depend largely on visible improvements in road quality and transparent management of toll revenues. Similarly, the Road Infrastructure Tax Credit Scheme is designed to encourage companies to finance the reconstruction of strategic highways in exchange for tax credits. While the scheme has shown promise, its ability to address road infrastructure challenges equitably across the country remains to be seen. Other countries facing similar infrastructure challenges have demonstrated that sustainable road management requires a different approach.

Rwanda and Morocco, for instance, have prioritized dedicated road maintenance funds, performance-based contracts that reward quality rather than kilometers constructed, and policies that allocate a significant proportion of road budgets to maintenance instead of new construction. Nigeria can draw useful lessons from these experiences. Maintenance funding should be increased and protected because preventive maintenance is far cheaper than complete reconstruction. Public-private partnerships should be expanded with adequate safeguards, transparent tolling policies and independent monitoring. Development finance institutions should support contractors with affordable financing to minimize disruptions caused by delayed government payments. Road designs should withstand heavier rainfall and flooding, while compensation and right-of-way issues must be resolved before projects begin to avoid unnecessary delays.

FERMA should also prioritize durable, high-quality road maintenance over the shoddy repairs that have become all too common. Ultimately, Nigerians are not asking for perfect roads; they simply want roads that are safe, durable and properly maintained. While new highways are desirable, a well-maintained five-kilometer stretch is often far more valuable to road users than a much longer road that quickly falls into disrepair. The media, civil society, the National Assembly and Nigerians must continue to hold the government accountable by monitoring road projects and demanding better results. Good roads are not a privilege but a right of every citizen. With tax credit schemes, concessions and other funding mechanisms already in place, what is now required is political will, transparency and consistent implementation. However, Senator Oshiomhole’s criticism also invites legitimate public reflection. 

Many Nigerians have asked what the condition of these same federal roads was during his eight-year tenure as Governor of Edo State. Several governors, including those of Rivers State at different times, undertook repairs on critical federal roads within their states and subsequently sought reimbursement from the Federal Government. It is therefore fair to ask whether similar interventions were pursued during Oshiomhole’s administration. Public officials, whether serving or former, should be judged by the same standard. Constructive criticism is essential in a democracy, but it carries greater weight when matched by a demonstrable record of action. Nigerians expect those entrusted with public office to address pressing challenges while they have the authority to do so, rather than becoming vocal critics only after leaving office

By:  Calista Ezeaku
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Sacrificing Humanity for Politics? 

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“Politics is temporary, but humanity is permanent. No politician is worth sacrificing genuine friendships, family bonds, or peaceful coexistence.””Politics is temporary, but humanity is permanent”.

Every election season leaves behind more than ballot papers and campaign posters. It often leaves broken friendships, divided families, fractured communities, and hearts filled with resentment. In the heat of political competition, many people forget a simple but profound truth: politics is temporary, but humanity is permanent. Across our communities, it has become increasingly common to see people sever lifelong relationships simply because they support different political parties or candidates. Individuals who once shared meals, celebrated milestones, and stood by each other during difficult times suddenly become strangers not because they committed any personal offence, but because they exercised their democratic right to think differently. This growing trend should concern every citizen. Politics is designed to provide leadership, shape public policy, and improve society.

It was never intended to become a weapon for destroying relationships or creating permanent enemies. When politics begins to erode our humanity, it ceases to serve its true purpose. A democratic society thrives on diversity of thought. Every citizen possesses the constitutional right to support any political party, candidate, or ideology without fear of intimidation or hatred. Political disagreement is not a crime; rather, it is evidence that democracy is alive and functioning. The true measure of political maturity is not our ability to silence opposing voices but our willingness to respect them. Unfortunately, many people have mistaken political loyalty for personal hostility. Instead of debating ideas, they attack personalities. Instead of discussing policies, they spread insults and misinformation. Instead of building bridges, they construct walls of bitterness.

Such behaviour weakens not only our relationships but also the democratic values we claim to defend. The reality is simple: elections are temporary. Political offices have fixed tenures. Governments change. Political alliances shift. Today’s political rivals may become tomorrow’s allies, while today’s allies may become tomorrow’s opponents. History has repeatedly demonstrated that politicians who once exchanged harsh words eventually sit together at negotiation tables in pursuit of shared interests. Yet ordinary citizens often remain trapped in unnecessary hatred long after political leaders have reconciled.This reality offers an important lesson. No politician should be worth sacrificing genuine friendships, family bonds, or peaceful coexistence. Political support should never require personal hatred. We can campaign passionately for our preferred candidates while still respecting those who choose differently.

Democracy flourishes when disagreement remains civil. One of the most dangerous habits in politics is inheriting other people’s enemies. Far too often, supporters adopt the personal conflicts of political leaders as though they were their own. People who have never met begin insulting one another on social media, damaging relationships, and sometimes engaging in violence simply because influential figures disagree.Such misplaced loyalty serves no meaningful purpose. Political leaders often possess the opportunity to reconcile, negotiate, and move forward after elections. Their supporters, however, are frequently left with damaged relationships, regret, and lasting divisions within their communities. Wisdom demands that citizens distinguish between political competition and personal relationships. Rather than inheriting hostility, we should cultivate independent judgment.

Judge individuals by their character, integrity, honesty, and personal conduct not merely by the colour of the political party they support. A person’s political affiliation does not automatically define their values, competence, or humanity. Equally important is the need to elevate the quality of our political conversations. Instead of engaging in personal attacks, we should focus on issues that genuinely affect people’s lives. Discussions should revolve around education, healthcare, infrastructure, security, economic growth, employment, agriculture, and accountable governance. These are the matters that determine the future of our nation not endless exchanges of insults. Social media has further amplified political intolerance. Behind anonymous profiles and smartphone screens, many people say things they would never express in person.

Every post, comment, and shared message has the potential either to promote understanding or to deepen division. Responsible citizenship requires restraint, accuracy, and respect, especially during politically sensitive periods. Politics should inspire service, not hostility. Leadership should unite rather than divide. Citizens should be free to disagree without becoming enemies. After all, beyond our political preferences, we remain neighbours, colleagues, business partners, classmates, worshippers, and fellow citizens who share the same hopes for peace, prosperity, justice, and national development. As another political season approaches, let us remember what truly matters. Campaigns will end. Elections will pass. Winners will celebrate, and losers will regroup. But the relationships we preserve, the respect we extend, and the humanity we uphold will remain long after the campaign slogans have faded.

The greatest victory in politics is not defeating an opponent at the polls; it is preserving our values while participating in democracy. Let us choose dialogue over division, understanding over intolerance, and respect over hatred. Above all, let us never forget this timeless principle: Politics should never be more important than humanity. And perhaps the wisest political advice anyone can embrace is this: Never inherit people’s enemies. In doing so, we preserve not only our relationships but also the very spirit of democracy itself.

By: Michael T. Abraham

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Making the Out-of-School Children Survey Count 

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Quote: “Reliable data may reveal the scale of Nigeria’s out-of-school crisis, but only sustained political will and practical action can ensure that every child is given the opportunity to learn, thrive and contribute to national development.”

The Minister of Education, Dr. Tunji Alausa, recently announced that the Federal Government, in partnership with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), will conduct a nationwide household survey to determine the actual number of out-of-school children in Nigeria. The exercise is intended to provide reliable data for evidence-based education policies and targeted interventions. Current estimates put the number of out-of-school children at between 15 million and 20 million, placing Nigeria among the countries with the highest number of children excluded from formal education. At first glance, this is a commendable initiative. One of Nigeria’s greatest developmental challenges has been the absence of accurate and reliable data. Without dependable statistics, planning becomes difficult, implementation inefficient, and evaluation of government programmes almost impossible.

The nation’s actual population also remains uncertain because of the absence of an up-to-date national census. Estimates range from below 200 million to over 250 million, making effective planning a daunting task. Sound policies on education, healthcare, housing, employment and infrastructure all depend on credible population statistics. Against this backdrop, the proposed survey deserves commendation. If government succeeds in generating reliable figures, it will be better positioned to allocate resources equitably, identify areas of greatest need and design interventions based on facts rather than assumptions. Accurate data will also make it easier to monitor progress and assess whether efforts to reduce the number of out-of-school children are achieving the desired results.

However, beyond the good intentions lie important questions. Will state governments provide the enabling environment for an objective and transparent survey? Since education is on the concurrent legislative list, the cooperation of state governments will largely determine the credibility of the exercise. Politics could easily influence the process. States with higher numbers of out-of-school children may qualify for greater intervention funds from the Federal Government and development partners. Would this tempt some states to inflate their figures? On the other hand, high numbers could portray a state government as performing poorly in the education sector. Would some governors therefore seek to understate the figures to protect their image? These concerns are legitimate because whenever statistics are tied to political interests or financial benefits, the temptation to manipulate them cannot be ignored.

Equally important are questions about the survey itself. When will it begin? How long will it last? What methodology will be adopted? Will every household be covered, including those in remote rural communities and areas plagued by insecurity? Does the government have the manpower, funding, technology and security arrangements needed for such a nationwide exercise? Nigeria has witnessed several well-intentioned national programmes that fell short because of poor planning and inadequate logistics. Many Nigerians will remember that the proposed national population census scheduled a few years ago was postponed despite extensive preparations. Funding constraints and logistical challenges contributed to its suspension. What guarantees are there that this survey will not suffer a similar fate? More importantly, what becomes of the findings after the exercise? Nigeria is not short of reports or data collection initiatives.

The recurring challenge has been the lack of political will to translate findings into concrete policies and sustained action. The survey must not become another document gathering dust on government shelves. Instead, it should serve as the basis for measurable interventions, continuous monitoring and improved educational outcomes. Beyond producing accurate figures, the survey must also uncover the reasons children remain outside the classroom. Addressing the crisis requires more than counting affected children. It demands an understanding of the social, economic and cultural factors responsible for the problem. Issues such as the Almajiri system and other practices that discourage formal education should be carefully examined while respecting cultural values and protecting every child’s right to quality education. Poverty remains a major barrier, as many parents cannot afford school-related expenses, forcing children into street trading or child labour

Insecurity has also led to the closure of schools in several communities, depriving thousands of children of learning opportunities.Government must therefore complement the survey with practical measures. Strengthening social protection for vulnerable families, improving school infrastructure, recruiting and retaining qualified teachers, enhancing security around schools and enforcing compulsory basic education are all essential. Equally important is sustained collaboration with traditional rulers, religious leaders, civil society organisations and development partners to address the root causes of school exclusion. The proposed survey presents an opportunity to replace guesswork with credible evidence. However, its true value will not be measured by the number of households visited or questionnaires completed. Its success will depend on whether the findings inspire bold policies, adequate funding and sustained action that ensure every Nigerian child, regardless of location or background, has access to quality education. Only then will the exercise move beyond statistics to become a genuine instrument for national development.

By: Calista Ezeaku

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