Friday, February 24, 2023, was the eve of the long-awaited 2023 presidential election in Nigeria. For many, it was a chance to initiate a new paradigm even though some of the old guards were doubling down to cut their pound of flesh after decades of political toil. However, February 24 would remain in infamy, because it was the day almighty Russia started the greatest conflict the world has seen since the end of the Second World War. February 24, 2023, is the first anniversary of the Russia – Ukraine war. Unsurprisingly, in his classical delusion, President Vladimir Putin of Russia continues to refer to his war on Ukraine as simply a military operation, not minding the fact that the Red Army, has suffered more than 150,000 casualties according to some estimates. The strongman of the Kremlin has shown himself a villain willing to go to any length for his legacy, which is essentially to resurrect the Soviet Union. This is in every sense a pipe dream.

In the last quarter of 2021, it became clear to the global intelligence community that Putin was preparing to go to war when he began to amass military armaments, and create a supply line leading to the Ukrainian border. All the signs of an impending invasion were there, but the President of Ukraine, Vlodomire Zelensky, hoped against all odds that Putin’s madness never sees the light of day. That hope was misplaced because President Putin had an ‘oh yes’ intelligence, that told him the inversion of Ukraine would be a walk in the pack – an operation that would hardly last a month.

At the outset of the war in Ukraine, President Putin declared that the goals of his special military operation in the country were “demilitarisation and de-Nazification.” However, the position of most in the West was that these reasons were preposterous at best; and, one of the primary reasons was that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was a Jew and a descendant of Holocaust survivors. Therefore, one of Putin’s stated primary objectives was unachievable, the reason being that it was a farce and an idea in his mind.However, to understand Putin’s chief military objective, which was to demilitarize the country of Ukraine, the name, Mikhail Gorbachev must be mentioned, even though he died on August 30, 2022, six months after his country’s invasion of Ukraine.

He was the eighth, and the last President, and the one who supervised the dismantling of the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR) more than three decades ago. In the eyes of President Putin, Gorbachev supervised the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the twentieth century.” Why? Gorbachev was a man of peace who abhors bloodshed.For President Putin, and most of his henchmen, the conquest of Ukraine is a major plank in the calculus of the restoration of ‘Mother Russia.’ Putin intends to right the wrongs of the fall of the USSR in the cold war. Therefore, he set his agenda in motion in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea. Unfortunately, he misjudged the response of the international community, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), and the resolve of the Ukrainian people, and their army in particular. And as a consequence, Putin’s chief objective remains a mirage, but on the other hand, a perfectly hidden secret is out in the open. The whole world now knows that the Russian army is a paper bear.

Since Putin stamped his foot on the corridors of power about two decades ago, he has done everything possible to reverse the gains of a free society. Under his rule, Russia has become somewhat insular and having a free and democratic country next door was an anathema. So what does a Ukrainian defeat represent, bearing in mind the actions of Russia in Georgia, Belarus, and other Baltic states given the current geopolitical configuration, and the happenings in the South China Sea? A defeat for Ukraine in the first instance would mean the brutish takeover of an independent country, which goes contrary to every international law, including treaties that Russia, is a party to. But beyond that, it would mean that might is right; and therefore if the Chinese take over Taiwan by force it would be morally okay. It would also mean that no country unless a military superpower has the right to determine its political future without seeking leave from its powerful neighbours.

It also means that the global order and the primary purpose of the creation of the United Nations – which is to maintain international peace and security, develop friendly relations among nations, and promote social progress, better living standards, and human rights have been defeated by Russia.
It is also very encouraging that the US and its NATO allies, EU institutions, and EU countries have made stannous to support Ukraine in spite of the economic blowback effect of their sanction on Russia. For instance, research by Statista, a digital online research company shows that in course of one year, the US, EU institutions, EU countries, and NATO nations have doled out an estimated 130 billion Euros in bilateral, financial, humanitarian, and military aid to Ukraine.

The recent rally to support the Ukrainian army with modern tanks and other offensive weaponry is a major effort in the right direction, especially in the face of a new Russian offensive. But beyond military aid to Ukraine, the US must take a further step by joining the UK, Germany, Netherlands, France, and the Nordic, Baltic, and Eastern European countries to support Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s request that President Putin and his cronies by indicted. An OpEd by former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, in the UK Guardian on February 24 sums up Putin’s crimes when he wrote, “the crime of aggression is Putin’s original and fundamental crime, the one that has been the starting point for all the other atrocities. Aggression is a crime for which evidence is already available, and a special tribunal on aggression that complements the work of the international criminal court (ICC), now investigating war crimes and crimes against humanity, is the best way forward.” Would this deter China, vis a vis Taiwan? Only time would tell.

But, has Nigeria learned anything from the ongoing crises, especially given what played out across the country on Saturday, February 25, 2023? I am not sure. Because as one whose goddaughter had to flee Ukraine in the company of 5000 fellow Nigerians, because of war, I saw people who ordinarily would be unable to move their family out of the country in the event of war aiding and abating political terrorists across the country. We are still a country where some of the old political elite are doing everything possible to set the country on fire because their children are abroad. Nigeria should pay keen attention to global events and learn.

Doing everything possible to set the country on fire because their children are abroad. Nigeria should pay keen attention to global events and leader. All the signs of an impending invasion were there, but the President of Ukraine, Vlodomire Zelensky, hoped against all odds that Putin’s madness never sees the light of day. That hope was misplaced because President Putin had an ‘oh yes’ intelligence, that told him the inversion of Ukraine would be a walk in the pack – an operation that would hardly last a month.

In spite of the colossal failure of the Russian Army in the past year, the blow on the Russian economy, occasioned by sanctions, and the current stalemate of the war, President Putin continues to live in denial. Some in the west had anticipated some bit of truth during Putin’s rally last week to mark the one-year anniversary of his so-called military operations in Ukraine, it never happened, rather all he could say was the “special military operation is moving on step by step.” At this juncture in the war, after twelve months of indiscriminate bombardment, razing of civilian infrastructure, displacement of 8 million Ukrainians within their country, and the exile of more than 9 million others, what has Putin achieved? What does he continue to fight for? What would a Ukrainian defeat represent? How should the world continue to respond? What can Nigeria glean from the war, and the response of the Intentional Community so far?

By:  Raphael Pepple