Oil & Energy

Razor-Thin Spare Capacity To Keep Oil Prices Elevated

Published

4 years ago

September 26, 2022

The post-COVID-19 rebound in economies and oil demand have left global spare oil production capacity at very low levels with a very small cushion to absorb possible supply-side shocks in the near term.
Despite the economic slowdown already underway in many parts of the world and fears of recessions in Europe and the United States, oil prices haven’t fallen too far below $90 per barrel. Fears of supply disruptions have increased as much as fears of recessions that could slow oil demand growth.
The thinnest spare capacity cushion in years is supportive of oil prices and will continue to be a bullish factor on the market, at least in the short term, considering that no forecaster or analyst can be certain how much global oil supply will be lost in just three months when the EU embargo on Russian oil imports by sea enters into force.
Certainly, there is one sure-fire way for the world to see rising spare capacity and oil inventories rebuilding from multi-year lows to more comfortable levels—recession. A serious slowdown in economic activity or an outright recession would be needed to bring global oil stocks up to five-year average levels, as Reuters’ senior market analyst John Kemp notes.
And right now, it looks like a recession is the only way to rebuild global oil inventories.
On the supply side, neither OPEC+ nor the U.S. can materially boost supply in the short term. OPEC+ is estimated to be a massive 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) below its targeted oil production.
Moreover, global spare capacity is in the hands of just two OPEC producers, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The Saudis themselves admitted this week that the next rebound in economies would wipe out the spare capacity.
“Oil inventories are low, and effective global spare capacity is now about one and a half percent of global demand,” Saudi Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser said this week.
“But when the global economy recovers, we can expect demand to rebound further, eliminating the little spare oil production capacity out there. And by the time the world wakes up to these blind spots, it may be too late to change course,” he added, reiterating the warning that years of underinvestment in oil and gas have brought about the current low spare capacity and tight markets.
At the same time, American oil executives say that the U.S. cannot come to the rescue for Europe this winter as oil and gas producers can’t ramp up current production levels too much to offset an expected drop in Russian oil supply when the EU embargo enters into force.
All this leaves the demand side to rebalance the market. If a severe recession with significantly slower oil demand growth or even a demand drop materializes, spare capacity and inventories could rise from multi-year lows.
Related: Gazprom Slashes Natural Gas Deliveries To French Utility Giant
A recession may be coming for the world in 2023 as central banks aggressively hike interest rates to tame inflation, the World Bank said last week. Just this week, the Fed raised the key rate by another 75 basis points for a third consecutive time, and the Bank of England raised rates by 50 basis points to 2.25%, the highest rate since the start of the 2008 financial crisis.
Despite the decisively tightening monetary policy in major economies, both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) continue to see global oil demand growing annually both in 2022 and 2023.
Despite the deteriorating economic environment and concerns over Chinese demand due to COVID-19 lockdowns, the IEA expects world oil demand to grow by 2 million bpd in 2022 and by another 2.1 million bpd next year. OPEC, for its part, still sees global economic growth staying robust at 3.1% this year and another 3.1% next year in its latest forecast, suggesting that the cartel still expects healthy oil demand growth despite market fears of recession.
Moreover, analysts and forecasters say that gas to oil switching this winter and tight product markets—especially diesel in Europe—could also support oil demand even in a mildly recessionary environment.
Then there is the expected supply shock from Russian exports and the still unclear mechanism under which the West is seeking to keep Russian oil flowing by applying a price cap on Russian oil, which Putin may simply refuse to sell as he has already threatened.
A global recession would normally rebuild inventories and capacity buffers. But with the war in Ukraine, which Russia, the world’s second-largest crude oil exporter, has just escalated with the mobilization of 300,000 men, all bets are off.

By: Tsvetana Paraskova
Paraskova reports for Oilprice.com.

Oil & Energy

‘Revamping Moribund Refineries ‘ll Address Rising Cost Of Petroleum Products’

Published

1 month ago

September 21, 2026

The Tide

An Energy Expert, Dr Joseph Obele, has called on the Federal Government and the management of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to urgently restart the government – owned refineries insisting that it would help in curbing the rising cost of petroleum products.

He insisted that bringing back the moribund public refineries would further serve as a direct response to the plight of Nigerians as far as petroleum products is concerned.

Obele, who is also the Public Relations Officer (PRO) of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) and Lecturer at the Ignatius Ajuru University of Education, Port Harcourt, while reacting to the cost of petrol said the immediate and practical approach to addressing the current increase in petroleum prices is to restore production at the government-owned refineries and maximise every available refining capacity in the country.

“The immediate approach to the recent rise in petroleum prices is to restart the government-owned refineries”, he said.

Obele insisted that restoring functional government-owned refining capacity would increase domestic supply, reduce dependence on imported refined petroleum products and contribute to greater stability in the downstream petroleum market.

He urged the federal government to maximise all available refining capacity while continuing to encourage responsible private-sector Investment and healthy competition within the downstream petroleum industry.

Obele expressed concern over the continued rise in crude oil prices amid the ongoing tensions involving the United States and Iran and concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, warning that sustained supply risks could continue to put pressure on global petroleum prices.

He noted that Brent crude closed at about $105.83 per barrel on 16 September 2026, while WTI closed at about $102.43 per barrel.

The impact, the expert said, is already being felt in the Nigerian downstream market, with Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) reportedly selling in the range of ?1,400–?1,500 per litre in some locations, while Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) is selling above ?2,000 per litre.

“The immediate approach to the recent rise in petroleum prices is to restart the government-owned refineries”, Obele said.

According to him, restoring functional government-owned refining capacity will increase domestic supply, reduce dependence on imported refined petroleum products and contribute to greater stability in the downstream petroleum market..

He warned that a prolonged increase in petroleum prices would have a wider economic impact, particularly on transportation, food, medical services and other essential commodities.

“The continuous increase in the cost of petroleum products will invariably affect the prices of virtually all commodities and services. It will create additional inflationary pressure and deepen the financial hardship being experienced by Nigerians”, he stated.

Obele noted that the prolonged dormancy of government-owned refineries has had serious economic and employment implications across the petroleum value chain, affecting workers, contractors, marketers, transporters, businesses and other dependants of the sector.

According to him, a functional Port Harcourt and Warri Refinery would stimulate activities across the petroleum value chain, support employment and restore confidence among industry stakeholders.

In his words, ‘the Port Harcourt Refinery should become a measurable demonstration of government’s commitment to the welfare of Nigerians”

He further noted that the Port Harcourt Refinery had previously recorded production activities arguing that the focus should now be on resolving operational challenges and returning the facility to sustainable production.

“The time to restart the Port Harcourt Refinery is now. Nigerians cannot continue to bear the unbearable cost of petroleum products when domestic refining capacity is available. Every viable refinery should be optimally utilised in the national interest”

Obele emphasised that the objective should not be to undermine private-sector refineries but to ensure that all viable refining assets—government and private—contribute to national energy security, adequate supply and a competitive downstream petroleum market.

Lady Godknows Ogbulu

Oil & Energy

The Race To Cut Methane Emissions Is Exposing A Global Divide

Published

1 month ago

September 21, 2026

The Tide

Several countries worldwide have been working to reduce methane leaks, with some states making significantly more progress than others. The establishment of the Global Methane Pledge in 2021 at the COP26 climate summit has helped accelerate cleanup efforts; however, many countries are still falling behind on their methane-cutting pledges. Now, one of the world’s biggest methane polluters – Turkmenistan – is aiming to plug its mega leaks, which would help reduce global methane emissions and could encourage other countries to do the same.

The United States and the European Union led the Global Methane Pledge, which has since been signed by 159 countries that together contribute around 45 per cent of global human-caused methane emissions. The pledge aims to reduce methane emissions by at least 30 per cent below 2020 levels by 2030.

Many governments had already made ambitious pledges to reduce carbon emissions, but some had not previously sought to cut methane emissions, which heat the planet up to 80 times more than carbon dioxide over two decades. Methane has contributed around 30 per cent of the increase in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution, and fossil fuels contribute around one-third of the methane emissions from human activity. Record production of oil, gas, and coal, combined with limited mitigation efforts, has kept emissions above 120 million tonnes (Mt) annually, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The IEA’s annual Global Methane Tracker shows how much methane is emitted each year and tracks progress and failures. In 2024, abandoned wells and mines accounted for roughly 8 Mt of methane emissions, demonstrating the severity of leaving them unplugged. It is extremely hard to track methane emissions as they are widely underreported. Some parts of the world have little or no measurement-based data on methane emissions.

Therefore, the IEA has to rely on data from scientific studies, measurement campaigns, and large emissions events detected by satellites to estimate emissions each year. Some regions of the world, such as Europe, report their methane emissions far more accurately than other parts. The IEA estimated that global energy-related methane emissions are about 80 per cent higher than those reported by countries to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Some countries contribute heavily to the world’s methane emissions, particularly oil-rich countries that have not effectively decommissioned fossil fuel operations for decades, including Turkmenistan, the United States, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. A 2023 Guardian assessment revealed that Turkmenistan was the worst country for methane mega-leaks. Some of Turkmenistan’s “super-emitters” leaked tonnes of methane every hour, from a single valve or pipeline, which is more than the emissions from an entire coal-fired power station. The assessment showed that the methane emissions alone from Turkmenistan’s two main fossil fuel fields contributed more to global heating in 2022 than the United Kingdom’s entire carbon emissions. The findings have led to significant public backlash and put pressure on the government to address the problem.

This year, Turkmenistan approved a massive clean-up project, as the country started plugging its mega-leaks. Turkmenistan has halted eight leaks by repairing corroded pipes, faulty wells, and failing flares, according to data from the United Nations. However, significant work is needed to reduce the country’s methane emissions. The UN Methane Alert and Response System (MARS) has delivered 192 alerts of methane plumes to Turkmenistan over the last year. According to the system, Turkmenistan had nine of the world’s top 50 worst methane leaks of the last six months.

Turkmenistan has improved its reporting systems in recent years and responded to around 20 per cent of the alerts with on-the-ground information about the leaks and potential plans to fix them. By comparison, the United States was sent 138 alerts and did not respond to any. The worst detected methane leak came from Mexico’s offshore oil and gas operations and measured a huge 37 tonnes per hour, equivalent to the emissions of over 7 million SUVs. Although Mexico responded to all 23 MARS alerts, it has yet to fix the leak.

Meghan Demeter, the programme manager of MARS, stated, “These mitigation cases are a proof point of what can be done with satellite data, especially in situations like Turkmenistan, where there are a lot of detections… This is a breakthrough in terms of having real documented mitigation action. But it is not yet a breakthrough in the overall magnitude of emissions. Eight cases is an incredible first step, but there are also a lot more sources in Turkmenistan that need to be addressed. We are in pretty constant communication, and the response rate is growing month by month. We’re seeing steady progress.”

UN tracking has also encouraged other countries in the region to plug leaks, with Kazakhstan, another former Soviet republic with ageing oil and gas infrastructure, stopping eight leaks following alerts. To date, Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina have 100 per cent response rates to MARS alerts, while Libya and Azerbaijan have high response rates. Meanwhile, the United States, Iran, Russia, and China failed to respond to any alerts.

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com 16

Oil & Energy

Delta Targets 120MW Power Boost, Moves To Cut Reliance On National Grid

Published

2 months ago

September 7, 2026

The Tide

The Delta State Government has intensified efforts to boost electricity generation and supply in the state with plans to add 120 megawatts (MW) to the national grid through a partnership with Supply Power.

The State Commissioner for Works (Rural Roads) and Public Information, Charles Aniagwu, disclosed this at a press conference in Asaba, weekend, noting that the initiative was part of wider reforms aimed at opening up the power sector to private investors.

Aniagwu, who was accompanied by the Executive Assistant to the Governor on New Media, Felix Ofou, said the state was exploring alternative sources of electricity to support businesses, households and communities while reducing pressure on the national grid.

He said the government was particularly interested in exploiting Delta’s abundant natural gas resources for power generation, pointing to the Kwale Free Trade Zone, which is part of the state’s special economic zone, as a major opportunity for investors.

According to him, prospective investors were taken to the zone during the state’s recent economic summit to enable them to assess the availability of gas as a key raw material for electricity generation. ComparePower Rates

The commissioner explained that generating more electricity locally would not only increase supply in Delta but also free up power on the national grid for use by other consumers.

Aniagwu cited the 8.5MW Independent Power Plant located behind the state secretariat in Asaba as an example of what could be achieved through alternative power sources.

He said the facility had enabled the secretariat complex to operate independently of the national grid, thereby making the electricity that would otherwise have been consumed there available to other users.

He added that the planned 120MW partnership with Supply Power would further strengthen the state’s electricity supply capacity and provide a more reliable power base for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Aniagwu said the state government was also intervening in areas traditionally regarded as the responsibility of electricity distribution companies because inadequate power supply could no longer be allowed to constrain economic development. LearnQuantum Physics

He identified the extension of the electricity grid from Abraka towards the Ndokwa axis as one of the interventions being undertaken to connect more communities to electricity.

The commissioner, however, raised concerns over the burden placed on communities that are often required to provide transformers and other electricity infrastructure, only for distribution companies to take over the facilities and subsequently collect electricity bills without adequately accounting for the investments made by the communities.

He said the state would continue to support efforts aimed at energising communities, noting that improved electricity supply would stimulate businesses, create jobs and help tackle social problems associated with unemployment and idleness.

On regulation, Aniagwu said the government was working with the Ministry of Energy and a committee set up to develop an appropriate regulatory framework for the state’s emerging power sector. SwitchEnergy Plans

He said the proposed energy commission would be responsible for regulating new electricity producers, determining appropriate tariffs and overseeing distribution networks.

The commissioner stressed that liberalising the sector required effective regulation to protect consumers and investors, adding that decisions on power distribution infrastructure, including the use of overhead or underground lines, must take into account the peculiarities and safety requirements of each location.

He warned that power expansion without adequate regulation could expose residents to electrocution and other hazards, stressing the need to protect electricity infrastructure while ensuring consumers were not subjected to unfair pricing.

Aniagwu said the state government’s broader objective was to build an efficient and sustainable electricity market driven by private investment and capable of powering businesses, households and communities across Delta State.