Oil & Energy

Ukraine War May Result In 1m Bpd In Local Oil Demand Shirtage

Published

4 years ago

March 7, 2022

War in Ukraine could result in as much as 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil demand being removed from the global market, Rystad Energy research shows.
The human and material costs of the conflict have been catastrophic just seven days into the military operation.
Russia has so far shown no signs of backing down, and prospects of a breakthrough in negotiations appear slim. As a result, investors and markets are scrambling to assess the ramifications of the worsening crisis as the West slaps even more stringent sanctions on Russia, while institutions and companies distance themselves from Moscow.
Oil demand in both Ukraine and Russia is set to plunge if an end to the conflict does not materialize quickly. Ukraine is likely to see the largest drop in relative terms, potentially losing more than 50% of demand so long as the war persists, with long-term implications inevitable due to infrastructure damage and the speed of getting facilities back online once the conflict has come to an end.
Russia also stands to suffer significantly, although the impact in relative terms will be less. The direct and indirect sanctions imposed by the West on Russia’s financial system will reduce economic activity significantly, complicating the process for Russian companies to conduct business internationally and for its citizens to travel abroad.
That could result in an oil demand destruction of between 15% and 30% or more.
“The economic fallout from the war – in addition to the humanitarian crisis – is going to be sweeping, both for Russia and Ukraine, and the region’s oil demand is going to take a severe hit if the conflict is prolonged and recently enacted sanctions remain in place,” says Sofia Guidi Di Sante, oil market analyst with Rystad Energy.
Ukraine outlook
Total oil demand in Ukraine averaged around 260,000 bpd in 2019, with the road transport sector accounting for more than half of the total, at 138,000 bpd. Aviation demand is minimal, representing 5% of total consumption and estimated at 7,000 bpd in 2019.
Aviation demand was wiped out almost immediately as airports closed and flights were grounded. However, road traffic has remained high, sustained by heavy traffic as residents drive out of the country. The spike in traffic to the border compensates for the fall in commutes elsewhere and other regular activities.
Yet, if the war drags on and fighting continues, demand could fall by 50% or more. Such a drop in road and air traffic alone will shave off around 65,000 bpd of oil demand, which is 28% of expected monthly oil consumption for the country.
In addition, disruptions in the supply chain and the impact on gross domestic product (GDP) growth would harm other sectors, where we factor in a potential additional estimated impact of 40,000 bpd.
This would amount to about 50% of Ukraine’s oil demand, an estimate aligned with the demand drop witnessed in other countries.
The international response to Russia’s actions has been swift and powerful. Financial markets are volatile as a result, and it will not take long for the trickle-down effects of sanctions to take hold of the country’s economy.
Russia is the sixth-largest oil consumer globally, with oil demand totaling 3.6 million bpd in 2019, and a slowdown in consumption would have severe domestic and international consequences, affecting global balances.
The European Union (EU) and Canada have already shut their airspace to Russian planes, and international travel demand is expected to drop swiftly in the coming days.
A complete halt in international travel would wipe out 54% of the country’s total jet fuel demand, amounting to a negative impact of around 110,000 bpd.
Although it is too early to estimate the impact of international sanctions against Russia on oil demand, we can gain an insight by considering the demand realities from countries with recent experience of similar sanctions – Iran and Venezuela.
Oil demand dropped in these countries by a range of between 10% (Iran) and more than 30% (Venezuela), with the extreme case of a 50% drop between the peak and trough in Venezuelan demand from 2011 to 2019.
A 10% to 30% drop in Russian demand would correspond to a total contraction of 350,000 to 1 million bpd in 2022. We expect that half of that deceleration would be from industrial activities, while the rest would be driven by reduced internal mobility, although it is too early to make a sectoral assessment.

By: Rystad Energy
Rystad Energy oilprice.com

Oil & Energy

Civil Society Demands Accountability over N60Billion AKS Oil Producing Communities

Published

1 week ago

August 10, 2026

The Tide

A civil society organisation, the Centre for Human Rights and Accountability Network, (CHRAN) has demanded full disclosure of how over ?60bn allocated to oil-producing communities in Akwa Ibom State has been managed since the inauguration of the Host Community Development Trust in 2024.

The group also threatened to deploy legal measures against trustees who fail to account for projects and other interventions funded from the oil host community development allocations.

In a Statement signed by the Group State Director, Otuekong Franklin Isong, and Secretary, Research and Documentation, Comrade Etimbuk Ekpenyong, the organisation’s demand was prompted by complaints from residents who questioned the level of development in their communities despite the substantial funds accruing to the trust.

According to the statement, Its demand also followed a verification exercise conducted by it’s investigation Team into the activities of the EMOIMEE Host Community Development Trust, which covers seven oil and gas-producing local government areas in the state.

The affected councils in the statement are Eket, Mbo, Onna, Ikot Abasi, Mkpat Enin, Esit Eket and Eastern Obolo.

The statement said, during the CHRAN verification exercise, only the Eastern Obolo Board of Trustees had so far provided satisfactory responses to its requests for information made under the Freedom of Information Act.

The organisation said the failure of other trustees to disclose information had heightened concerns over the transparency and accountability in the management of funds intended for communities affected by oil exploration and production.

The group said it formally wrote to trustees representing Eastern Obolo, Esit Eket, Ikot Abasi, Onna and Mbo on May 25, 2026, requesting details of projects executed, locations, contractors, scholarships and beneficiaries, as well as other interventions financed by the trust.

According to CHRAN, the Eastern Obolo trustees, Rt. Hon. Uduyork J. Aboh and Mrs Lily Evans John, responded with documents detailing 29 projects executed in the local government area and scholarships awarded to 2,000 beneficiaries.

The organisation said it independently fact-checked the information supplied by the Eastern Obolo trustees and found it accurate.

CHRAN commended the trustees for responding to its request, describing the disclosure as an example of the transparency expected from institutions managing public-interest funds.

The organisation, however, said four other trustees had yet to respond to its requests.

Those named were Hon. E. Justus Ntuk of Ikot Abasi, Hon. Bassey Dan-Abia Jnr of Esit Eket, Engr. Clinton Akpan of Onna and Dr Asuquo Edet Inuikim of Mbo.

CHRAN urged the trustees to immediately disclose details of how the funds allocated to their respective host communities had been utilised.

It said failure to provide the requested information would leave it with no option but to pursue available legal avenues to compel disclosure.

On Legal battle over Eket fund, the Human Right Group said its accountability campaign had already resulted in legal action involving the Eket representative.

According to the group, it was earlier written separately to the trustees representing Mkpat Enin and Eket.

While the Mkpat Enin representative responded, CHRAN said the Eket trustee failed to provide the requested information.

The organisation said this led it to institute Suit No. FHC/CS/10/2026, which is currently pending before the Federal High Court.

The Group stressed that its demand was not aimed at witch-hunting the trustees but at ensuring that communities receive the benefits intended under the Petroleum Industry Act.

The group said the EMOIMEE trust was established in pursuant to the Petroleum Industry Act, 2021, with Mobil Producing Nigeria limited as the settler and the Nigerian Upstream Regulatory Commission as regulator.

It said the trust was incorporated under the Companies and Allied Matters Act on July 5, 2023, and formally inaugurated on July 18, 2024.

The organisation alleged that the trust had received over ?60bn from the NNPC/MPN Joint Venture since inception, making transparency in the utilisation of the funds particularly important.

CHRAN said the funds were intended to address developmental challenges in communities hosting oil and gas operations and to improve the quality of life of residents.

It therefore urged all trustees to make their records available for public scrutiny.

“Public accountability is not optional for a statutory trust managing funds meant for the collective benefit of host communities; it is a legal and moral obligation,” the organisation said.

The Human Rights Group further warned that it would explore all lawful measures available to compel trustees who refuse to provide the requested information to disclose how the funds had been spent.

The Group called on residents of the affected communities to remain vigilant and demand accountability for projects, scholarships and other interventions funded from the host community development allocations.

The organisation said the response from Eastern Obolo demonstrated that transparency was possible and should become the standard across all the host communities.

Enoch Epelle

Oil & Energy

NCDMB, BOI Unveil $100m Nigerian Content Equity Fund …Set To Invest $5m In Oil Firms

Published

1 week ago

August 10, 2026

The Tide

The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB), and the Bank of Industry (BOI), Friday in Lagos inaugurated the Investment Committee of the Nigerian Content Equity Fund (NCEF).

The NCEF according to the Directorate of Corporate Communications of the Board is a groundbreaking $100 million financing product designed to avail long-term financing to service companies and provide access to funds in exchange for equity rather than the traditional debt instruments.

In his remarks at the inauguration ceremony of the Committee, Executive Secretary of the NCDMB, Engr. Felix Omatsola-Ogbe tasked the investment committee to carry out rigorous due diligence on every company seeking support and ensure that the objectives for which the Fund was established are fully achieved.

He said the Equity Fund must never be mistaken for a grant, stressing that beneficiaries are expected to deploy the capital judiciously and repay in accordance with the terms of the investment.

He urged the committee to ensure that only credible people with viable businesses benefit from the scheme.

“Our top priority should be identifying people who will use the Fund properly and, most importantly, return our funds back to us so that we can continue the programme for other deserving beneficiaries,” he said.

A statement from the Board’s Corporate Communications Division said the NCEF was inaugurated as a new financing solution to the Nigerian oil and gas service sector, and is also expected to accelerate local content growth.

According to the Boards Division of Corporate Communications, the underlying goal of the NCEF is to reduce per-unit cost of oil and gas products and services locally, create an additional source of income for the Board and play a catalytic role in attracting other investors and lenders to financially viable organizations.

“By providing access to equity financing, the NCEF will enable service companies to expand and increase their market share, which will contribute to the growth of the Nigerian oil and gas industry.

“The Fund size is $100million, while the obligor limit is $5million. The Fund is provided by the NCDMB, while the Bank of Industry serves as the Fund Manager.

“The target beneficiaries are oil field service companies, manufacturers connected to the oil and gas sector, fabrication yards, and connected sectors, with the primary goal being to promote economic growth, job creation, and wealth creation in Nigeria”, the NCDMB said.

The Board added that the impact of the Fund on oil and gas projects could potentially create an estimated 12,500 direct jobs and 7,000 indirect jobs, stating that the inauguration of the investment committee marks another milestone in the evolution of the Nicetizn Content Investment (NCI) Fund which is a flagship intervention established under section 104 of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development (NOGICD) Act to bridge financing gaps confronting indigenous oil industry firms.

A Statement from the NCDMB’S Division of Corporate Communications further said that while the five NCI Fund products managed by the BOI and two products managed by the Nigerian Export-Import Bank (NEXIM) have provided debt financing to qualified service companies over the past decade, with loans lasting five years and interest rates of 8%, the Equity Fund has carved a new niche.

Meanwhile, Managing Director of the Bank of Industry, Dr. Olasupo Olusi has described the inauguration as a major milestone in the consummation of the NCI Equity Fund, noting that the initiative represents the next phase in the long-standing collaboration between BOI and the NCDMB.

According to him, the partnership, which has lasted for nearly a decade, began with the administration of the US$350 million Nigeria Content Intervention Fund, through which hundreds of indigenous oil and gas companies have accessed financing to expand their operations.

He noted that the introduction of an equity financing window addresses an important gap in the industry’s financing architecture.

“The next step, which I am very impressed with and very thankful to the NCDMB for thinking through with BOI, is the need to fill the finance gap with equity,” he said.

According to him, equity financing offers an entirely different class of financial instrument capable of supporting businesses that may not yet qualify for conventional debt facilities, expressing confidence that the initiative would attract additional investment into Nigeria’s oil and gas sector while strengthening indigenous participation.

Giving further insight into the fund, the Group Head, Equity Investments at the Bank of Industry, Mr. Chike Chukwuelu, explained that the Equity Fund addresses what industry experts describe as the “missing middle.”

According to him, many indigenous businesses struggle to secure senior debt because they lack the level of collateral demanded by commercial lenders, despite possessing viable businesses with strong growth prospects.

Chukwuelu said the equity structure would also enable the fund managers to maintain closer oversight of beneficiary companies, helping them strengthen governance, improve operations and evolve into sustainable businesses.

In his remarks, Senior Technical Adviser to the Executive Secretary, Engr. Austin Uzoka, observed that the Equity Fund represents an opportunity to accomplish what previous financing interventions could not fully achieve.

“The striking thing is that the fund is about doing things the other funds have not been able to accomplish.” He said

The Tide gathered that the committee’s responsibilities are to provide strategic oversight for the Equity Fund, ensure prudent investment decisions and build a portfolio of companies capable of growing into major industry players.

Ariwera Ibibo-Howells, Yenagoa

Oil & Energy

Investment ln Young Engineers Key To Ogoni’s Future -President

Published

1 week ago

August 10, 2026

The Tide

President of the Khana, Gokana, Tai and Eleme (KAGOTE) Organisation and Chief Executive Officer of Giolee Global Resources Limited, Chief Lesi Maol, has described investment in the training and development of young engineers as critical to the future and sustainable development of Ogoniland.

Maol said this during the opening of a four-week Wellhead and Christmas Tree Maintenance Training Programme for selected young engineers from Ogoniland at the corporate headquarters of Giolee Global Resources Limited in Port Harcourt, recently.

He said the initiative was conceived as a strategic intervention to bridge the gap between academic knowledge and the practical competencies required in today’s highly competitive oil and gas industry, while equipping participants with internationally recognised technical skills.

According to him, the future of Ogoniland is inseparable from the development of its human capital, stressing that the region’s greatest resource is not the wealth beneath the ground but the talent, resilience and potential of its young people.

Maol explained that the training programme was designed to produce technically competent, safety-conscious and industry-ready professionals capable of competing effectively in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector as well as the global energy market.

He emphasised that the initiative was not merely aimed at awarding certificates but at developing disciplined professionals who would uphold the highest standards of technical excellence, integrity, safety and service in the discharge of their responsibilities.

The KAGOTE President urged the participants to approach the training with dedication, professionalism and a willingness to learn, expressing optimism that the knowledge acquired would contribute to the economic advancement and sustainable development of Ogoniland.

The programme, organised in partnership with Rick International Services Limited and RickWell Tech UK, features classroom instruction, practical demonstrations using oilfield equipment, competency-based assessments, Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) training, leadership development and project management.

In his remarks, Lead Executive Trainer of Rick International Services Limited, Chief Engr. Ramos Ihekona, described the programme as a valuable opportunity for aspiring engineers to acquire practical industry experience from seasoned professionals.

Ihekona encouraged the trainees to participate actively in every aspect of the programme, collaborate with one another and maximise the opportunity to develop competencies that would enhance their confidence and employability in the energy sector.

The organizers said the training was introduced to address the persistent disconnect between theoretical engineering education and the practical skills demanded by employers, adding that the curriculum covers wellhead operations, Christmas tree systems, mechanical maintenance, pressure control, engineering documentation, equipment inspection, field troubleshooting, HSE and project management.

Some of the participants drawn from Khana, Gokana, Tai and Eleme Local Government Areas commended Chief Maol for sponsoring the programme and ensuring a transparent selection process.

He however , likened the initiative to a life-changing opportunity that would prepare them for rewarding careers in the oil and gas industry while contributing to the development of Ogoniland.

King Onunwor