Environment
Flood: NES Boss Debunks Claims Over 2013 Prediction
Contrary to opinion held
in most quarters that the much predicted flood of 2013 did not come, the National President of the Nigerian Environmental Society (NES), Dr. Olu Andah, has debunked such claims.
The NES boss, who spoke with our correspondent in an exclusive interview in his office, in Port Harcourt, recently, said it would not be very correct to say that the predicted flood did not come.
He said the meteorological agencies’ predictions looked comparative to what happened in 2012 and the people’s experiences even as he frowned on how the 2012 flood was managed.
According to him, there was no actual plans put in place to relate the past experiences in 2012 to that of 2013 in terms of post-flood management activities.
“That we did not have the magnitude of the 2012 flood in 2013 does not mean there was no flood
“We have flood every year and for those of us in the Niger Delta and for those of us that live along the major rivers and creeks, we know there is flood every year” he said.
He said there was the need for the various agencies from the national to local government levels to work in synergy with a view to proffering solutions to the management of emergencies as they arise.
“The states and even the local governments, the ministries, Departments and Agencies, MDAs, how many of them have on ground the facilities or capacity to tell us the level of water in their area especially in the coastal zones across their area of jurisdiction.
“How many of these states and local government areas have water benchmark where they can safely say, yes 2010 this was the height of water in our area and 2012;” he queried.
The NES boss said except such measurements were on ground we could not scientifically compare the magnitude of yearly flooding even as he said the truth remains that we do not have the plans on ground to be able to mitigate the effect of flooding.
We don’t have them so we thank God that the 2013 flood was not as heavy as predicted.
“If it has happened, what plans did we put on ground to have checked the impact,” he said.
Continuing, he said whether the magnitude of the flood of 2013 was low, it was still a wake up call for governments and other agencies to start putting in place measures that would acquaint the rural people on how to get prepared in case of such occurrences.
For the people in the local areas, this is what NIMET should focus attention on.
“NIMET by that announcement is trying to say in directly that the manufacturing industries should have weather monitoring stations so that they will be able to act promptly in cases of emergencies” he said.
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This was disclosed in a keynote address by the Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Engr Joseph Utsev, at the AFO public presentation at the Presidential Banquet Hall, Abuja, organised by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency, NiHSA, with the theme ‘Smart Water Resources Management: Moving from Oil to Water-Based Economy’.
Utsev acknowledged that early information saves lives, livelihoods, protects infrastructure, and reduces economic losses, saying that, as part of the Federal Government’s commitment to improving flood forecasts and preparedness, is the modernisation of the national hydrological monitoring networks.
The minister also said his ministry is strengthening collaboration with the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, NiMet, to ensure better integration of weather and water information, as it is critical for delivering reliable forecasts that support farmers, disaster managers, urban planners, and other key sectors of the economy.
He said AFO is therefore not just a scientific report, it is a call to action by all in terms of preparation ahead of the flood season, as early information saves lives, livelihoods, protects infrastructure, and reduces economic losses.
However, the minister acknowledged that forecasts alone are not sufficient if the information does not translate into action at the community level, which he said his Ministry is working with other relevant government agencies to mitigate the impacts of flooding.
Meanwhile, the 2026 AFO presentation had in attendance President Bola Tinubu, represented by the Minister of Environment, Balarabe Lawal.
Others present were the federal ministries: Water Resources and Sanitation; Livestock Development, Environment and Women Affairs.
Others include the Speaker of the House of Representatives, State Governments, Service Chiefs, development partners and the media.
He said: “The 2026 flood forecast presented today provides us with the following general highlights: High Flood Risk: 14,118 communities in 266 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in 33 States and FCT fall within the high flood risk areas. The States are: Abia, Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara and the FCT.
“Moderate Flood Risk: 15,597 Communities in 405 LGAs, 35 states except Ekiti State, will experience moderate flood risk.
“Low Flood Risk: Incidences of minimal flood is expected in 923 communities in 77 LGAs in 24 States. The States are Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Sokoto, Taraba and Zamfara.
“Flash and Urban Flooding: Flash and urban flooding are projected in major cities in the country due to high rainfall intensities, low attention to management of water facilities including drainage systems, waterways and lack of flood resilience structures. Cities such as Abakaliki, Abeokuta, Abuja, Asaba, Benin City, Birnin–Kebbi, Calabar, Ibadan, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Makurdi, Nguru, Onitsha, Oshogbo, Port Harcourt, Sokoto, Warri and Yola, among others are to experience these categories of flood incidence.
“Coastal and Riverine Flooding: Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Ogun, Rivers and Ondo are to experience coastal flooding due to rise in sea level and tidal surge and this would impact on fishing, wildlife habitation and river navigation.”
He also emphasised that, “As we transition toward a water-based economy, we must recognize that water security is national security. Effective water governance will play a critical role in ensuring food security, supporting economic diversification, and improving the overall well-being of our citizens.”
However, the Minister called on State andand Local Governments including communities to start preparation to mitigate the impacts of the predicted flood.
“I therefore call on state governments, local authorities, disaster management agencies, farmers, and community leaders to carefully study the findings and advisories contained in this document and take the necessary steps to prepare for the coming flood season.
“Furthermore, we are encouraging state governments to integrate flood risk considerations into land-use planning, urban development, and infrastructure design.
“Floodplains must be properly managed, drainage systems must be improved, and communities must be empowered to adapt to changing climate conditions.
“Preparedness remains the most effective strategy for reducing flood risks. When we plan ahead, we protect lives, safeguard infrastructure, and preserve economic gains. Let us commit to building a safer, more resilient and more water-secure nation.”
Earlier, the Director General/Chief Executive Officer, Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency, Umar Ibrahim Mohammed, NiHSA, said the 2026 AFO aligns with the Renewed Hope Agenda in terms of economic diversification, infrastructure development, climate resilience, food security and sustainable water management.
Mohammed also explained that, “The AFO has evolved into an important national planning instrument that provides early scientific prediction of flood risks in the country, evidence-based guide for decision-makers and platform for emergency coordination among stakeholders.
“In producing this year’s forecast, the Agency undertook a comprehensive and data-driven process to provide tailored information for high-risk flood zones and flash floods in urban cities and towns.
“Building on the success achieved through AFO publications, we have upgraded from reporting flood forecast to Flood Risk Intelligence Architecture and from the traditional modelling to Hybrid AI-Integrated Modelling system to improve forecast reliability, reduce false alarms and improve the lead time accuracy.
“Not these alone, the modelling for the 2026 forecast have been conducted in-house. This marks a strategic shift toward enhancing capacity building, manpower development and institutional resilience.”
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