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Fitch Affirms Nigeria’s FCID Rating, Retains Stable Outlook On Reforms
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at ‘B-‘ with a stable outlook, citing the reforms being implemented by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.
A year ago, the global rating agency lowered the country’s credit score to ‘B-‘ from ‘B’ and attributed the downgrade to continued deterioration in government debt servicing costs and external liquidity despite high oil prices in 2022.
It also affirmed this in May this year.
“Reform progress since President Bola Tinubu’s government came to power in May 2023 has been faster than we anticipated at our last review,” it said in a statement, citing the removal of fuel subsidies, the unification of the multiple exchange rate windows and the devaluation of the naira.
However, there has recently been some backtracking on reforms, notably a lower degree of price discovery in the FX market than in late June, raising doubt about the strength of this positive momentum, Fitch said.
“In addition, new data on the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) suggests its net foreign-exchange position is substantially weaker than we previously understood,” it said.
The country’s rating is constrained by weak governance, structurally very low non-oil revenue, high hydrocarbon dependence, security challenges, high inflation, low net FX reserves and ongoing weakness in the exchange-rate framework, according to the rating agency.
Fitch views Tinubu’s cabinet, particularly Finance Minister, Wale Edun, and the new CBN governor as supportive of reform.
“However, there are still sizeable socio-political challenges to implementation, including an acceleration in inflation, which could account for recent backtracking of some reforms,” it said.
Fitch said FX shortages has continued to weigh on economic activity and further FX liberalisation, and deter foreign capital.
In October, the CBN lifted the ban on providing FX for imports of 43 items, and began this week to clear nearly $6.7billion of unmet FX forwards.
“However, there has been a renewed widening of the gap between the official and parallel exchange rates since July with a premium of over 30 percent over the official rate.
“Average daily FX turnover at the official exchange rate window has fallen back to near April 2023 levels (well below pre-pandemic), at $95million in September,” the agency said.
Fitch flagged a lack of detail on a recent government announcement to raise $10billion of FX, including whether this includes World Bank budget support loans of $1.5billion.
It said the country’s public debt (excluding CBN loans) has a fairly long average maturity of 9.7 years.
It said: “The securitisation of N23trillion of CBN loans at a lower interest rate of 9 percent has helped contain general government interest costs, but at near 42 percent of revenues, overall interest expenditure is well above the ‘B’ median of 10.9 percent.
“We expect much lower recourse to CBN financing in 2023-2024 than in 2022, although there is a risk demand from the domestic banking sector turns out to be weaker than expected, despite its ample liquidity and strong deposit growth (38 percent in 1H23 year-on-year).”
Fitch forecasts general government debt/GDP to stabilise at 43.9 percent of GDP in 2024-25, having risen from 35.2 percent at the end of 2022 on the depreciation of the naira.
“We project GDP to slow to 2.6 percent in 2023, from 3.3 percent in 2022, and to expand 3.2 percent in 2024 driven by the services sector and higher oil production.
“Nigeria’s already structurally high inflation rose to an average of 25.5 percent yoy in 3Q23, from 20.3 percent yoy in 3Q22, partly reflecting fuel subsidy removal and naira devaluation,” it said.
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NDLEA Intercepts 1.63m Tramadol Pills, Arrests 80-Year-Old Suspect
The National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) has intercepted 1.63 million pills of tramadol concealed in two long trailers heading for Kano as it intensified efforts to dismantle a transnational drug trafficking syndicate operating along the Togo-Benin Republic-Nigeria corridor.
The agency also arrested an 80-year-old suspected drug dealer in Rivers State, a businesswoman linked to cannabis shipments from Canada, a Chadian woman, a couple and other suspects in coordinated operations across Lagos, Edo, Kogi and Rivers states.
The NDLEA’s Director of Media and Advocacy, Femi Babafemi, disclosed this in a statement, yesterday.
According to the statement, the latest intelligence-led operation came barely one week after NDLEA operatives recovered 558,900 pills of tramadol concealed in the false-bottom compartment of a truck that entered Lagos through the Togo-Benin Republic route.
Babafemi said, “Ongoing efforts to dismantle a transnational drug trafficking syndicate smuggling tramadol from Togo, through Benin Republic into Nigeria have yielded another success with the interception of two long trailers used to move One Million Six Hundred and Thirty (1,630,000) pills of tramadol 250mg concealed in fabricated compartments of the trucks across multiple borders into Lagos.”
He added that one of the two trailers was intercepted on July 2 along the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, where operatives recovered 853,000 pills of tramadol 250mg concealed in a fabricated compartment beneath the cargo floor.
Babafemi said, “One of the two trucks already heading to Kano was tracked and located on 2nd July 2026 along the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway where NDLEA officers recovered 853,000 pills of tramadol 250mg concealed in a fabricated compartment beneath the cargo floor of the trailer and arrested the 22-year-old driver Jabir Kabiru.”
He further disclosed that another trailer was intercepted two days later on the same route.
“Two days later, 4th July, NDLEA operatives acting on processed intelligence successfully tracked and recovered the second trailer from the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway while heading to Kano. A total of 777,000 pills of tramadol 250mg concealed in a fabricated compartment beneath the cargo floor of the truck were evacuated and the 22-year-old driver Muhammed Nuhu arrested,” the statement read.
According to Babafemi, investigations established a link between the three intercepted consignments.
He said, “Investigations revealed that all three trucks and consignments intercepted on 21st June, 2nd July and 4th July belong to the same transnational drug trafficking syndicate operating along the Togo-Benin Republic-Nigeria axis.”
The agency also intercepted 4.70 kilograms of Canadian Loud, a synthetic strain of cannabis, at the import shed of the Murtala Muhammed International Airport, Ikeja, Lagos.
Babafemi said, “Two consignments of Canadian Loud, a synthetic strain of cannabis, with a combined weight of 4.70 kilograms have been intercepted at the import shed of the Murtala Muhammed International Airport (MMIA), Ikeja, Lagos. The cargoes, which arrived the Lagos airport from Canada in cartons with ‘Odugwu’ boldly written on them, came aboard British Airways and Ethiopian Airlines flights on 24th June and 3rd July respectively.”
He said two cargo agents, Ali Rotimi Samson and Orimolade Oluwagbenga, were initially arrested in connection with the shipments, while another suspect, Edeh Onyeamachi Stanislus, was apprehended after arriving at a logistics company to take delivery of the consignments.
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FG Alerts Nigerians Of N50,000 Allowance Registration Scam
The Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction has denied claims that it has commenced registration for a purported ?50,000 National Support Allowance.
The ministry, in a public notice posted on its official X handle, yesterday, described messages, links and websites advertising the alleged programme as fraudulent.
It urged Nigerians to disregard such claims and verify information only through official government channels.
“The Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction has NOT commenced registration for any ?50,000 National Support Allowance,” the ministry said.
It added, “Disregard fraudulent messages, links and websites claiming otherwise. Verify any info only through official govt channels.”
The alert is in response to a circulating scam flyer that falsely claims the program is ongoing under President Bola Tinubu’s directives.
The fake advertisement, which includes text in Hausa and English, directs victims to a suspicious website (kluspz.com) for applications.
The ministry’s warning comes amid heightened concerns over digital fraud targeting vulnerable populations seeking social support.
Similar scams have previously surfaced around programs like N-Power, prompting questions from citizens in replies to the official post.
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Minimum Wage Review: We’re Battle Ready For Major National Struggle -NLC
The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has expressed its preparedness for a major national struggle for a comprehensive review of the national minimum wage.
NLC President, Comrade Joe Ajaero, hinted at this while making his remarks at the commissioning of the Comrade Godwin Abumisi Pensioners Legacy House and Multipurpose Hall in Abuja.
Ajaero said it is no longer acceptable to discuss the welfare of workers without also discussing the welfare of those who have completed their active years of service.
He advised workers and pensioners to get prepared for the ideological and economic battles that lie ahead.
According to the NLC president, “The Nigeria Union of Pensioners (NUP) is one of the proud affiliates of the Nigeria Labour Congress. Therefore, your struggle is our struggle, and your welfare remains a priority for the organised labour movement.
“We are currently in the preparatory stages for a major national struggle for a comprehensive review of the national minimum wage.
“However, let me state unequivocally that it is no longer acceptable to discuss the welfare of workers without also discussing the welfare of those who have completed their active years of service.
“Accordingly, the Nigeria Labour Congress will not only push for a new national minimum wage but will also demand the establishment of a national minimum pension. It is a historical injustice that men and women who devoted their youth, strength and productive years to the service of this nation should be condemned to live below the poverty line after retirement.”
Ajaero noted that the cost of living has risen astronomically as food, healthcare and transportation have become increasingly unaffordable.
“We cannot continue to allow our senior citizens to survive on pensions that have become poverty wages. Every retiree deserves to live with dignity after decades of faithful service to the nation,” he said.
He urged pensioners across the country to remain united and prepared as the process begins, adding: “This Legacy House should not merely be seen as a physical structure; it should become a centre for mobilisation, strategic engagement and solidarity as we prepare for the struggles ahead.”
The NLC president pointed out that the working class has always understood that “those who exploit workers are united in advancing their interests. We too must remain united in defending our collective interests and ensuring that government fulfils its obligations to both serving workers and retirees.”
He urged pensioners across the country to remain united and prepared as the process begins, adding: “This Legacy House should not merely be seen as a physical structure; it should become a centre for mobilisation, strategic engagement and solidarity as we prepare for the struggles ahead.”
The NLC president pointed out that the working class has always understood that “those who exploit workers are united in advancing their interests. We too must remain united in defending our collective interests and ensuring that government fulfils its obligations to both serving workers and retirees.”
He said the completion of the project should serve as a clarion call to all workers and lovers of the masses.
“We must not only build physical structures but also build a strong movement capable of compelling government to honour its commitments,” he said.
Ajaero further stated: “We will continue to demand the immediate payment of all outstanding pension arrears and the implementation of a pension regime that guarantees every retiree a life of dignity and security.
“Together, we shall continue to fight until every Nigerian worker and pensioner receives the justice, respect and welfare they deserve.”
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