Oil & Energy
$100 Oil, Bad For Economy, OPEC+
Crude oil prices are on the rise, driven by stark cutbacks imposed by Saudi Arabia and Russia, the main forces behind OPEC+.
The cuts, implemented by the oil cartel in order to bolster oil prices, have been extremely successful, with barrel prices rising by a whopping 30% since June.
Now, prices are hovering ever closer to the USD $100 per barrel mark, and could even surpass that hallowed and feared metric on the back of Russia and Saudi Arabia’s recent announcement that they intend to extend the current voluntary production cuts.
Historically, high oil prices have been nothing but good news for the oil industry, even as it causes strife in other sectors. But this time around, it might be too much of a good thing even for Big Oil.
While high oil prices can spell pure profit for the oil sectors, it’s a fine line between stimulus and disincentive, as high prices at the pump can also cause significant dips in demand as the market reels from sticker shock.
For example, in June and July of last year, when oil prices hit a blistering USD $110 a barrel average, gasoline demand in the United States plummeted by 4.1% compared to the same period in the previous year when oil was selling at USD $70 per barrel.
And, as that $110 mark fell, so too did the size of the year-over-year demand gap, underscoring the correlation between high oil prices and consumer reticence.
And that cooling effect could be even stronger this year, as families in the United States have much fewer savings to fall back on and will likely be operating on a significantly tighter budget.
According to the Bank of America Institute, the average savings of U.S. households making $50,000 to $100,000 a year have fallen by half. And that worrying downward trend is about to be exacerbated for millions when student-loan repayments resume next month, representing around $100 billion a month at a national level.
Indeed, unsurprisingly, the spike in oil prices has caused much hand-wringing over at the Federal Reserve. Rising oil prices were key drivers of recession in the United States in the mid-1970s, as well as the early 1980s and 1990s, as energy markets and prices at the pump “drove up inflation and robbed consumers of purchasing power”.
Accordingly, fears of recession are rising in lock-step with crude benchmarks.
“Policymakers will be on high alert for a gasoline-driven rise in inflation expectations in particular, as they fear that could lead to a more broad-based increase in prices”, Bloomberg reported this week.
“The run-up in oil prices is at the very tip top of my worries at this point,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, was quoted by Bloomberg.
”Anything over $100 for any length of time, and we’re going to be very sick.” And the oil industry itself is likely not immune to this sickness.
While the state of savings and household economics in the United States is precarious enough, the full impact of consumer drawbacks will be actually felt in developing countries – as usual.
Bucking historical trends, the value of the U.S. dollar has only continued to rise along with oil prices, putting a painful squeeze on economies with weaker currencies and lower cash flows that are nonetheless forced to buy dollar-denominated oil.
This will have a serious impact on global economics and energy markets, as these developing countries include the monster markets of India and China.
While the USD $100 mark is not significantly financially distinct from, say, a USD $99 per barrel mark, three digits have an outsized psychological influence on consumers and on the energy market as a whole.
Crossing that line will therefore cause disproportionate shockwaves to a strapped and fragile global market that the energy industry should be prepared for in the coming months.
Luckily, most experts are predicting that the foray into triple digits will be short lived, but the damage done will likely have a longer shelf life.
By: Haley Zaremba
Zaremba writes for oil price.com
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Delta Targets 120MW Power Boost, Moves To Cut Reliance On National Grid
The State Commissioner for Works (Rural Roads) and Public Information, Charles Aniagwu, disclosed this at a press conference in Asaba, weekend, noting that the initiative was part of wider reforms aimed at opening up the power sector to private investors.
Aniagwu, who was accompanied by the Executive Assistant to the Governor on New Media, Felix Ofou, said the state was exploring alternative sources of electricity to support businesses, households and communities while reducing pressure on the national grid.
He said the government was particularly interested in exploiting Delta’s abundant natural gas resources for power generation, pointing to the Kwale Free Trade Zone, which is part of the state’s special economic zone, as a major opportunity for investors.
According to him, prospective investors were taken to the zone during the state’s recent economic summit to enable them to assess the availability of gas as a key raw material for electricity generation. ComparePower Rates
The commissioner explained that generating more electricity locally would not only increase supply in Delta but also free up power on the national grid for use by other consumers.
Aniagwu cited the 8.5MW Independent Power Plant located behind the state secretariat in Asaba as an example of what could be achieved through alternative power sources.
He said the facility had enabled the secretariat complex to operate independently of the national grid, thereby making the electricity that would otherwise have been consumed there available to other users.
He added that the planned 120MW partnership with Supply Power would further strengthen the state’s electricity supply capacity and provide a more reliable power base for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Aniagwu said the state government was also intervening in areas traditionally regarded as the responsibility of electricity distribution companies because inadequate power supply could no longer be allowed to constrain economic development. LearnQuantum Physics
He identified the extension of the electricity grid from Abraka towards the Ndokwa axis as one of the interventions being undertaken to connect more communities to electricity.
The commissioner, however, raised concerns over the burden placed on communities that are often required to provide transformers and other electricity infrastructure, only for distribution companies to take over the facilities and subsequently collect electricity bills without adequately accounting for the investments made by the communities.
He said the state would continue to support efforts aimed at energising communities, noting that improved electricity supply would stimulate businesses, create jobs and help tackle social problems associated with unemployment and idleness.
On regulation, Aniagwu said the government was working with the Ministry of Energy and a committee set up to develop an appropriate regulatory framework for the state’s emerging power sector. SwitchEnergy Plans
He said the proposed energy commission would be responsible for regulating new electricity producers, determining appropriate tariffs and overseeing distribution networks.
The commissioner stressed that liberalising the sector required effective regulation to protect consumers and investors, adding that decisions on power distribution infrastructure, including the use of overhead or underground lines, must take into account the peculiarities and safety requirements of each location.
He warned that power expansion without adequate regulation could expose residents to electrocution and other hazards, stressing the need to protect electricity infrastructure while ensuring consumers were not subjected to unfair pricing.
Aniagwu said the state government’s broader objective was to build an efficient and sustainable electricity market driven by private investment and capable of powering businesses, households and communities across Delta State.
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