Bank of England Governor Mervyn King is betting that he can keep pumping money into the economy without an outbreak of inflation once growth returns.
The Central Bank recently added £50 billion ($84 billion) to its asset purchase plan, taking it beyond the previous limit granted by the Treasury. Economists say King’s move risks stoking excessive inflation as the bank pumps a total of 175 billion pounds into the economy, equivatent to 12 per cent of gross domestic product.
“It’s a gamble,” said Pete Dixon, a London-based economist at commerzbank AG, Germany’s second-biggest bank.
“The more we throw at this problem, the bigger the potential strategy risks will be.”
The Bank of England said that Britain’s recession has been deeper than officials anticipated. Deputy Governor Charles Bean warned in July that the banks risks stoking inflation if it wants too long before withdrawing stimulus and king has said that the timing of an exit strategy will still be a “tricky judgment.”
The pound has dropped 1.4 per cent against the dollar since the decision.
The UK. Currency traded at $1.6723 in London. The 10-year gill yield has fallen 15 basis points to 3.678 per cent. Eight of 12 primary dealers that bid at government debt auctions had predicted the Central Bank would announce a pause.
The scale of King’s commitment contrasts with the European Central Bank, which has so far only bought 5.1 billion euros ($7.3 billion) in covered bonds and its focusing its emergency measures on pumping money into the economy through refinancing operations.
“We are not in a situation where the instruments we have utilised are complicated and would hamper an exit,” ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said in an interview on Bloomberg Television in Frankfurt. “We chose instruments that are easy to exit.”
Inflation in the U.K. will be the fastest in the Group of Seven nations next year, which may force the Bank of England to raise interest rates before other central banks, the paris base organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development predicts.
Producer prices in Britain unexpectedly rose 0.3 per cent last month after manufacturing picked up the previous, month, data from the office for national statistics showed.